Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[KQ]

I foresee a time in the not too distant future where people are envious of those who've already had it. My sister's family had it and have mostly recovered. It's gotta be a relief to feel like that's behind them.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan... Then Positive

[funkendrenchman]

Also the S Koreans see a high incidence of reinfection

I haven't seen anything that has shown that it's actually reinfection. Faulty tests and re-activation are more likely,

[MultiVerse]

Ironically, those areas that have had the best and quickest social distancing will be the last to reopen because less people will have been infected... in theory.

Broadly speaking (R0 − 1)/R0 is the fraction of recovered or vaccinated population for achieving herd immunity.

R0 estimates for SARS-CoV-2 in the absence of social distancing is ~5.7. That means (5.7-1)/5.7= 82% of the population has to be immune to stop transmission. With such a high percentage of susceptible people, even in the hardest hit areas infections could still run rampant for some time without control measures.

[KQ]

Watching our local news last night as they listed the days totals re: infections & deaths I thought to myself "this is just like during the Vietnam war."

Great.

[garyfromterrace]

This comment sums it up:
Attachment 325116

Yeah, seems about right.

Trashcan, holy shit man nice work and hope everything works out ok for you and your dad.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

This comment sums it up:
Attachment 325116

It is important to remember - If trump hadn't been elected, he wouldn't even have been able to pass the security clearance necessary to mow the lawn at the Whitehouse.

[Deebased]

This comment sums it up:
Attachment 325116

So Putin can now defy the laws of physics?

People disregard experts due to alarmism fatigue.

Its not that the experts are wrong, its that they're often not right.


Then the clickbait media amplifies these messages on a. 24 hour news cycle dominated by fear.

One could posit Putin learned to play the media to his advantage, but the net result was a forgone conclusion long before trump ran for president.

#killyourtv

[MultiVerse]

One of TGR's biggest disinformation super spreaders blames experts and the media, says Putin is a non-factor, makes total sense. /s

[huckbucket]

Suspiciously encouraging in reference to the performance otherwise repeated among micro/id/ip types, but they may have been other tests. Those are better numbers than we have been seeing out of PCR. Of course, serum collection is less error prone than NP swabbing.

Will read the study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...325v1.full.pdf

Been trying to confirm this, but I think the Acro test is the one that's been making the rounds in our local new pieces. Small, white cassette. Takes a finger stick and displays with two lines.

[gretch6364]

Anyone seen any new studies on the origination of COVID-19 or is it pretty settled that it came from the Wuhan wet market?

If that is the case, I sure hope we see some world wide pressure on the closing of the Chinese wildlife markets. It will only be a matter of time before it happens again if not. Unfortunately, PC may cost us the ability to do that and save millions of future lives for fear of being called a "racist" and criticizing the activities of another culture.

Leading up to this there were many studies calling these markets a ticking time bomb. So far, only one of the bombs have gone off. Many to come.

[old goat]

Watching our local news last night as they listed the days totals re: infections & deaths I thought to myself "this is just like during the Vietnam war."

Great.

And recruiting retired docs and med students to care for Covid patients is like the German defense of Berlin in WWII.

[4matic]

Anyone seen any new studies on the origination of COVID-19 or is it pretty settled that it came from the Wuhan wet market?

If that is the case, I sure hope we see some world wide pressure on the closing of the Chinese wildlife markets. It will only be a matter of time before it happens again if not. Unfortunately, PC may cost us the ability to do that and save millions of future lives for fear of being called a "racist" and criticizing the activities of another culture.

Leading up to this there were many studies calling these markets a ticking time bomb. So far, only one of the bombs have gone off. Many to come.

This is a "wet" market.



I understand your point but the issue is wild animal trade and proper food handling. Not wet markets.

[Deebased]

Lives to falsify data to justify his own existence.

I'd quote you but I don't want to spread disinformation.

[MultiVerse]

You'd quote accurately if you could, but you can't so you won't.

[Ted Striker]

Take Putin to the poliass version of this thread.

I foresee a time in the not too distant future where people are envious of those who've already had it. My sister's family had it and have mostly recovered. It's gotta be a relief to feel like that's behind them.

Has there been a definitive determination that recovered patients are in fact immune? There's even debate in this thread vis à vis re-infection vs late stage flare up, and faulty testing.

Any non-dentists care to chime in on that?

[Mofro261]

Been trying to confirm this, but I think the Acro test is the one that's been making the rounds in our local new pieces. Small, white cassette. Takes a finger stick and displays with two lines.

FIND compiles a list test makers here-

https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/pipeline/


about ~250 on that list.

[Kinnikinnick]

Soles of shoes vector

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/coro...155240105.html


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Bozo T. Clown]

This is why large scale antibody testing is so important.

Michael Mina
@michaelmina_lab

Apr 9
The tweet retweeted above was almost a week ago now. Testing deficiencies suggest its likely that, then, we were >4 million infections. Now even more. The unknowns in the #COVID19 testing data make this a very difficult thing to model. New Ab tests are key.
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Apr 4
Last note - and *speculative* – given very limited testing and relatively short windows of time to capture virus in a nasal swab, I really won't be surprised if even 50x more people have acquired the virus than cases confirmed If so ~11 million in US could have acquired #COVID19
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Apr 4
To answer this requires serology (antibody test) - tells if you've had the infection in the past. The immune system is an incredible recording device and serological tests let us tap into those records to answer questions like "how many people have been infected"
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Apr 4
To be clear - I hope that there have been 5 million or more cases in the US by now. This would suggest a lower infection mortality, higher population immunity, and would start to paint a clearer path how to get society back functioning.
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Apr 4
I've not heard too many suggesting such huge numbers. I worry it's because we're stuck. Is infection fatality 1% or is it 0.1%. We ground our models in data - but when key data is just not accurate (i.e. case counts are not), the models can be off. Sometimes by a lot
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Coronavirus (COVID-19): Press Conference with Michael Mina, 04/3/20
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/fe...-mina-04-3-20/

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/20...tibody-testing

Dr. Michael Mina, MD, PhD is an Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health and a core member of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics (CCDD). He is additionally an Assistant Professor in Immunology and Infectious Diseases at HSPH and Associate Medical Director in Clinical Microbiology (molecular diagnostics) in the Department of Pathology at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School

Plus, he retweeted the Philipp Klein, "Freeride at Home" ski video. So he's unquestionably the leading expert in the world.


Which in round numbers gives, if 10x as many people have been infected at one time, as people who have had enough symptoms to get tested for virus RNA... the percentage of people with no to mild symptoms will turn out to be >90%.

[Deebased]

You'd quote accurately if you could, but you can't so you won't.

Putin applauds you for being one of the widest spreaders of pseudo-scientific alarmism. Please collect your rubles before oil drops beneath $10/bl

[Ted Striker]

This is a "wet" market.



I understand your point but the issue is wild animal trade and proper food handling. Not wet markets.

I love it when they throw the bats.

[gretch6364]

This is a "wet" market.



I understand your point but the issue is wild animal trade and proper food handling. Not wet markets.

Which is specifically why I said "world wide pressure on the closing of the Chinese wildlife markets"

It just seems like the calls for preventing future viruses coming from the same places has died down. Every time someone associates the virus with Wuhan, they get called racist, etc. It is a bit maddening.

Maybe the UN can get involved, not sure it will matter. Nothing will be done and this will continue to happen.

[gretch6364]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/asia/...hnk/index.html

Maybe some progress? Or just posturing and nothing will change.

[dunfree]

This is a "wet" market.



I understand your point but the issue is wild animal trade and proper food handling. Not wet markets.

Yup. So are farmers markets.

[KenJongIll]

Soles of shoes vector

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/coro...155240105.html


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Thanks. I’ll warn my family not to sniff or lick our floors for at least 48hours after I come in from the hospital.

[Bozo T. Clown]

Take Putin to the poliass version of this thread.



Has there been a definitive determination that recovered patients are in fact immune? There's even debate in this thread vis à vis re-infection vs late stage flare up, and faulty testing.

Any non-dentists care to chime in on that?

The Menachery Lab
@TheMenacheryLab
·
19h
3) #SARSCov2 has evolved a complex latency/reactivation mechanism I guess it is possible. Herpes viruses are about 5X larger and code tons of proteins to mediate this. Could #COVDI19 evolve to do something no other CoV has ever done? I'm not there without data.

The Menachery Lab
@TheMenacheryLab
·
19h
Gotten questions about reactivation/reinfection with #SARSCoV2 & wanted to see some data But since data isn't a requirement these days for #COVID19 speculation, I'll offer: I doubt this is some kind of herpes virus like latency/reactivation RNA positive PCR is not live virus
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The Menachery Lab
@TheMenacheryLab
·
Apr 5
Instead of 4-6 weeks to make very specific/powerful Ab, you can have them in < 1 week. What this means is yes, you can be infected again. But, your immune response makes a ton of specific Ab that should limit the infection just days after it starts.