Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[old goat]

That being an expert and being a decision-maker are rarely the same thing. And decision-makers have little actual obligation to pay attention to actual experts or meaningfully discern who those are. And our communication systems enjoy similar independence.

All of which is fine, and I even support it. But that has to be offset with a rational system of rewards across all three and it’s very much not and that’s fucked and we act like if we just “listen to the experts” it’ll be fine and that’s only a tiny piece of it. Because none of that shit is set up such that expertise and being influential to boring public policy objectives are mutually rewarding in “normal times” and just being an expert without the infrastructure is tantamount to being useless. “Listen to me! I have these degrees!” Is masturbatory without finding a way to meaningful engage.

We aren’t just fucked by our popularity contest system of government. We’re fucked by our experts not embracing communication and effective messaging as equally vital to whatever it is they’re expert at.

You are right but not for the reason you think you are. We don't trust and respect expertise in this country. Experts advise, politicians ignore. The countries that have done the best managing the virus, at least so far, are those that have followed the advice of the epidemiologists and virologists to the letter.

There is an argument to be made that the experts aren't considering the impact of their advice on the economy and in a different context that might be important, but as has been demonstrated over and over the economy will not recover until the virus is controlled, so in this case the best epidemiological course and the best economic course are the same. Too many people, viral pictures of crowds in pools and bars aside, don't want to work or go to bars and restaurants and sports arenas etc etc and send their kids to school until they feel safe. Of course you will argue that all those people are brainwashed by the media. I would argue that the basic facts are there for anyone to see and people are reacting rationally given the magnitude of the risk. You disparage experts--but aren't you holding yourself out to be the elitist expert--the one who really knows what's going on as opposed to the majority in this country who are all stupid.

[abraham]

And now at the feed store same thing (3 employees, 6+ customers). Guess the state mandate is only for fools like me.

How often are you going out shopping? I feel like you've posted about your store experiences several times a week.

[glademaster]

I don't know that I agree with the original statement 100%, but I don't think skilled trades are pushed in any way anymore. Soon who will build your house? Fix your pipes? Very few kids I know today are willing to do that work, and yet go to college and get basically useless degrees and work at Starbucks with massive debt.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TGR Forums mobile app

Lots of young guys in the trades out here. I don't remember the last time I saw someone over the age of 35 or 40 pulling wire or plumbing a house, and lots of the guys I see are in their 20's.

[Mustonen]

You are right but not for the reason you think you are. We don't trust and respect expertise in this country. Experts advise, politicians ignore. The countries that have done the best managing the virus, at least so far, are those that have followed the advice of the epidemiologists and virologists to the letter.

What is the reason I think I’m right that is not actually the reason I’m right? Do tell. We have a problem where experts have lost their voice. And I chafe at the thought that our “institutions of expertise” are blameless and it would all be fixed if we just listened to them. I think they have and continue to underestimate the communication and messaging challenges of today in our society and it’s absurd to posit that they don’t have a burden to articulate their guidance in an explanatory way.

There is an argument to be made that the experts aren't considering the impact of their advice on the economy and in a different context that might be important, but as has been demonstrated over and over the economy will not recover until the virus is controlled, so in this case the best epidemiological course and the best economic course are the same. Too many people, viral pictures of crowds in pools and bars aside, don't want to work or go to bars and restaurants and sports arenas etc etc and send their kids to school until they feel safe. Of course you will argue that all those people are brainwashed by the media. I would argue that the basic facts are there for anyone to see and people are reacting rationally given the magnitude of the risk. You disparage experts--but aren't you holding yourself out to be the elitist expert--the one who really knows what's going on as opposed to the majority in this country who are all stupid.

Where did I disparage experts? And, no, I’m not holding myself out to be elitist. That’s the same fucking bullshit petty point that our experts are swimming against right now. Are you even reading what you write?

We’re all too smart to have to explain ourselves to anybody.

ETA: The economic messaging is a perfect example. We set up systems where we encourage independent thought, but we have mostly failed to pair guidance around controlling the pandemic with economic consequences of same such that normal small business owners can consume it and make good long term decisions for their businesses and their communities. There’s no obligation and there’s no incentive. Nothing I’m saying is profound. Answers lie in socialism, more state authority, and/or restructuring of rewards systems. I’m not the guy who knows how to get there, I’m just pointing out that our systems don’t exactly coalesce to the greater good in these situations and the responsibility is broad.

[KQ]

Interesting. Around here mask compliance is pretty high, such that those who walk around barefaced are the exception, not the rule.

And last stop is a farm stand run by an elderly couple (Peach season!). Again, I'm the only person with a mask. WTF?

[Mofro261]

We are fucked because as a society we have been fractured by a information ecosphere that sold us the myth of opinions being equal to facts without any accountability, while simultaneously demanding more accountablity from the experts because what the experts tell us may mean we need to moderate our behavior.

IE the experts didn't lose their voice, people just found an alternate voice that sounded more pleasant.

[bodywhomper]

This will be my 26th year. I’m in it for 10 more years....Have to do at least 35 years or be close to 60 to retire in PA/school district. I’ll be too young to retire any less than 10 years.....too much negative penalty to my retirement. (unless I die this fall of Covid&#129402

I like what I do...so I would never walk....but it will be interesting start to the year...lol

Please don’t stop teaching. I mean “walk” with your coworkers, carrying signs, making your health and safety a priority for the administrators, parent, students, and larger community. Collectively, show up to work but don’t entire the buildings.

LAUSD and SDUSD just took their stand. Their teachers are very well organized and have been for a long time.

I don’t know you, but per my mom (former teachers union organizer), the elementary school teachers were the most difficult to get on the bus to understand the benefits of collective worker strength, being proactive, thinking long term, and bargaining with the politicians. They are the largest # of teachers and wield the most power.

Consider helping your coworkers get up to speed and then help the administrators.

[Mustonen]

We are fucked because as a society we have been fractured by a information ecosphere that sold us the myth of opinions being equal to facts without any accountability, while simultaneously demanding more accountablity from the experts because what the experts tell us may mean we need to moderate our behavior.

IE the experts didn't lose their voice, people just found an alternate voice that sounded more pleasant.

How are the two different, exactly? Espousing that isn’t actually helpful.

Is it?

The world changed and left the experts behind. Is that what we’re saying? Sounds like they should figure it the fuck out. Or not.

[BC.]

I don't know that I agree with the original statement 100%, but I don't think skilled trades are pushed in any way anymore. Soon who will build your house? Fix your pipes? Very few kids I know today are willing to do that work, and yet go to college and get basically useless degrees and work at Starbucks with massive debt.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TGR Forums mobile app

Depends on HS....trades are huge here in PA.....those kids have apprentice work while in HS...graduate and do real well here in our area. (We have auto, building, plumbing, electrical). Our auto trades is a national powerhouse in their competitions....those kids get set up with great opportunities.

Trades are definitely pushed in our district..(Wallenpaupack Area SD)...kids get to choose their program/academy.....but I assume that’s not the normal around the country.

[glademaster]

How are the two different, exactly? Espousing that isn’t actually helpful.

Is it?

The world changed and left the experts behind. Is that what we’re saying? Sounds like they should figure it the fuck out. Or not.

The anti-intellectualism is strong with this one.

[Mustonen]

The anti-intellectualism is strong with this one.

Really? That’s what you got, there? “The experts have lost their voice” isn’t exactly arguing against expertise. Sorry if that’s too nuanced for you. But yelling that “we should listen to the experts” doesn’t fix it anymore (and isn’t anymore “intellectual”) than riffing on injecting disinfectants into your body to cure the COVIDs.

[The AD]

The world changed and left the experts behind. Is that what we’re saying? Sounds like they should figure it the fuck out. Or not.

You think the experts need better PR? I think the issue is exactly as Mofro described it: the experts are attempting to lay out the facts, but there's a separate faction that is not concerned with facts and they get traction because their message is more palatable. I think the only way to fight it is to get more people thinking critically, and that doesn't seem to be happening.

[Mazderati]

The world changed and left the experts behind. Is that what we’re saying? Sounds like they should figure it the fuck out. Or not.

Are you the guy who voted for his cat in 2016?

[Mustonen]

You think the experts need better PR? I think the issue is exactly as Mofro described it: the experts are attempting to lay out the facts, but there's a separate faction that is not concerned with facts and they get traction because their message is more palatable. I think the only way to fight it is to get more people thinking critically, and that doesn't seem to be happening.

Exactly what I’m saying.

Do you think that’s just gonna happen? Like. Enough people die or get sick and society is gonna be “hey let’s go listen to those degrees!”

There seems to be a disconnect between identifying this as a problem and actually solving that problem or even conceiving of it as a problem to solve. It’s confusing.

You know what’s not going to fix it? Telling people to “listen to the experts.”

[glademaster]

Keep digging, you'll be back up on the surface eventually.

[Mustonen]

Keep digging, you'll be back up on the surface eventually.

Digging where? Surface of what?

[jono]

https://wamu.org/story/20/07/13/map-...us-in-the-u-s/
so much for the AC theory, which was always pure speculation to begin with.
but I agree with you about the smug northEAST, and that there's more to this than we know.

I'm not sure what you mean specifically by "the AC theory," especially since this thread has had a lot of AC speculation at various points. But you got me looking again, and certainly not all AC theories are de-bunked. On the contrary, I'm seeing ASHRAE-published guidelines for HVAC design and CDC and others pointing out the dangers of recirculated air. I'd be at the front of the line to say "indoor air" rather than blaming AC specifically. Obviously that differs from outdoor in ambient UV as well as air currents and recirc, but all of those factor in.

One little graphic from ASHRAE's position paper on infectious aerosols:



Long and wonky, but lots of good stuff in there, including references (and evidence) for optimal RH (40-60%) and what comes across as almost pleading for UVC lights (200-280 nm) as an air cleaner (actually shows up twice in the recommendation list, and in this context I put that on the same level of seriousness as the former cop saying "don't talk to cops!")

https://www.ashrae.org/file%20librar...osols_2020.pdf

ETA: wow. I got distracted reading what the experts had to say and missed the whole drift of the thread here. I'm not sure whose point that proves, but I'm curious to find out.

[simple]

Digging where? Surface of what?

https://youtu.be/RDrfE9I8_hs

Obviously

[spanghew]

Depends on HS....trades are huge here in PA.....those kids have apprentice work while in HS...graduate and do real well here in our area. (We have auto, building, plumbing, electrical). Our auto trades is a national powerhouse in their competitions....those kids get set up with great opportunities.

Trades are definitely pushed in our district..(Wallenpaupack Area SD)...kids get to choose their program/academy.....but I assume that’s not the normal around the country.

Urbanites must be different than people who grow up in the country. I hear so many here (and elsewhere) assuming you'll either be competent at some trade or educated in any number of things. Back in the day, winter was for school, summer was for working . . . at some trade that you learned by working for somebody who was willing to put up with your adolescent idiocy and general clumsiness while teaching you how to do stuff. And on a ranch, you have to be at least competent enough to repair the universe with baling wire.

And how many people really do only one thing with their lives? You can be a cabinetmaker and a professor, a ski patroller and a scientist, serially or all at once. A lot of people seem to favor a system where you take a test at age 17 or so that determines what you will do for the rest of your life . . . and a lot of people seem to be all right with that.

But this is supposed to be about rat flu.

[Mustonen]

Hah!

ETA: that was to Chyna. Not trades and serial professions and whatever.

[XXX-er]

Keep digging, you'll be back up on the surface eventually.

yes, you will end up in




is that how they say " China " in New Yawk ?

[funkendrenchman]

A little more science regarding the importance of the Renin Angiotensin Aldosterone System (RAS), and its role in causing disease symptoms of COVID19, both systematically and in local organ tissues. ACE2 has a critical role in converting a signaling peptide called Angiotensin II or AngII into a signaling peptide called Ang1-7. Higher levels of AngII lead to activation of pro-inflammatory responses, along with pro-fibrotic, vasoconstrictive, and coagulation pathways. Ang1-7 has the opposite or counter regulatory actions ie anti-inflammatory, to dampen the AngII signaling response. The balance between these 2 peptides is skewed in disease states including Hypertension, Diabetes, Obesity, and heart disease- these people have less Ace2, and therfore more AngII. ACE2 also varies by age and ethnicity, with higher expression in children and lower expression in the elderly. This occurs with less than a 2-fold change in Ace2 expession levels.

Ace2 is the primary virus receptor, and is internalized and down regulated in cells that the virus attaches to. This down regulation of Ace2 leads to higher AngII levels and skews the RAS axis towards production of cytokines that initiate a disease state.

Under this hypothesis, people with normal or higher levels of Ace2 are able to avoid the severity of disease as they retain sufficient Ace2 to moderate AngII, despite having more potential virus receptors. Because Sars2 has high affinity for Ace2, it still is able to infect cells expressing lower levels of Ace2 but the downregulation tilts the RAS axis towards an activated immune state.

What is the thinking about what causes cytokine storms in extremely fit 30-40-somethings? Still related to Ace2?

[KQ]

How often are you going out shopping? I feel like you've posted about your store experiences several times a week.

At first, when we were in lockdown I spaced it out more but now I go almost as often as I used to before the pandemic plus I'm shopping for my Mom and delivering it to her too and she's not always good about giving me a complete list and consequently runs out of things she needs. Also a lot of what I buy is fresh produce and meats that aren't available/open 7 days a week so you have to go on different days to different farms/stores. Seems no matter how much I try to coordinate my runs into town there is always something that is out that day because harvest ran short or someone bought all the freshly butched chickens etc. etc.

Our cases are on the rise since moving into phase 2 (tourists) but are still relatively low. I think we have 68 active for the entire county which includes 9 cities That is the highest we've ever had. Mask compliance is very good in W2 proper just don't cross the border to OR.

[Yonder_River]

A little more science regarding the importance of the Renin Angiotensin Aldosterone System (RAS), and its role in causing disease symptoms of COVID19, both systematically and in local organ tissues. ACE2 has a critical role in converting a signaling peptide called Angiotensin II or AngII into a signaling peptide called Ang1-7. Higher levels of AngII lead to activation of pro-inflammatory responses, along with pro-fibrotic, vasoconstrictive, and coagulation pathways. Ang1-7 has the opposite or counter regulatory actions ie anti-inflammatory, to dampen the AngII signaling response. The balance between these 2 peptides is skewed in disease states including Hypertension, Diabetes, Obesity, and heart disease- these people have less Ace2, and therfore more AngII. ACE2 also varies by age and ethnicity, with higher expression in children and lower expression in the elderly. This occurs with less than a 2-fold change in Ace2 expession levels.

Ace2 is the primary virus receptor, and is internalized and down regulated in cells that the virus attaches to. This down regulation of Ace2 leads to higher AngII levels and skews the RAS axis towards production of cytokines that initiate a disease state.

Under this hypothesis, people with normal or higher levels of Ace2 are able to avoid the severity of disease as they retain sufficient Ace2 to moderate AngII, despite having more potential virus receptors. Because Sars2 has high affinity for Ace2, it still is able to infect cells expressing lower levels of Ace2 but the downregulation tilts the RAS axis towards an activated immune state.

This seems to be the most popular theory. Expressed in a diagram below:


Based on the above assumption, a good prophylactic regimen would be antioxidants such as NAC, Quercetin, Ficetin, etc. along with small amounts of Zinc. The usual vitamin c and d as well of course.

Also some hypotheses that ARB's and ACE inhibitors may help with this.
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/...arbs-covid-19/

Since these are starting or have started some randomnly assigned trials in these, hopefully we get some confirmation that is beyond just theory.

[Benny Profane]

And we are going to make em dumber!
Colleges are radical left indoctrination. Let's start undermining the educational system, and make our supporters think education is bad!

We are so fucked.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...on/5415908002/

sent from Utah.

Move over Tucker Carlson, the King of gaslighting is preparing for civilian life.