Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[KQ]

It's come down to a war of great thinkers. Minds which we turn to for scientific and medical guidance when times get tough. Yes people, it's Woolery vs Fauci. Pick your sides.

Attachment 334520

Woolery is a certified rightwing nutjob. Trump retweeting him is the same as Trump writing the tweet himself. Gotta wonder how Jared feels about it.

Wheel of Hate? Ex-TV Host Chuck Woolery Accused of anti-Semitism After Controversial Tweet

Ex Game Show Host Chuck Woolery Melts Down on Twitter, Fights Accusation of Anti-Semitism

[Adolf Allerbush]

because I posted a story about a bus driver in France who was beaten to death by passengers he asked to don masks as per the mandate.






Just you wait Henry Higgins

Right, but is the idea that the bus driver would've died no matter what because he was operating in an alleged "no go zone"? I don't get the argument being made is what I'm saying.

Oh, and thanks for beating me to the punch on FLA. takes what 3-6 weeks for people to succumb to the disease?

[funkendrenchman]

Deaths per million is still lower in Florida than in Canada.
So ... lots of new cases
but not that many lots of new deaths.

Remember that there's a lot more going on than just deaths - long term illnesses, unknown future complications, overcrowded hospitals, etc.

[pureantigravity]

Remember that there's a lot more going on than just deaths - long term illnesses, unknown future complications, overcrowded hospitals, etc.

I would assume that the rates of those things are also commensurate with deaths.
Tests doesn't seem like very reliable indicator given the asymptomatic nature and error rates.

[Adolf Allerbush]

I would assume that the rates of those things are also commensurate with deaths.
Tests doesn't seem like very reliable indicator given the asymptomatic nature and error rates.

If the death rate lags by 3-6 weeks wouldn't that be problematic to focus only on death rates as an indicator of when to do something?

[Dantheman]

If the death rate lags by 3-6 weeks wouldn't that be problematic to focus only on death rates as an indicator of when to do something?

I've heard that umbrella sales are a fantastic way to predict the weather.

[huckbucket]

Deaths per million is still lower in Florida than in Canada.
So ... lots of new cases
but not that many lots of new deaths.

Trends man, trends. What you meant to say is "Deaths per million RIGHT NOW is still lower in Florida than in Canada."



edit ... last three posts have it covered I think

[KQ]

Right, but is the idea that the bus driver would've died no matter what because he was operating in an alleged "no go zone"? I don't get the argument being made is what I'm saying.

Oh, and thanks for beating me to the punch on FLA. takes what 3-6 weeks for people to succumb to the disease?

Yeah... I dunno... the driver was in Bayonne hardly a sensitive urban zone. I got the same out of the comments you did - he was doomed from the get-go. Covid is the scape goat here.

From Wikipedia:

France



It has been falsely claimed that France has Muslim-only no-go zones that are under sharia law.[35][36][37]

An early usage of the term regarding Europe was in a 2002 opinion piece by David Ignatius in The New York Times, where he wrote about France, "Arab gangs regularly vandalize synagogues here, the North African suburbs have become no-go zones at night, and the French continue to shrug their shoulders." Ignatius said the violence resulting in the no-go zone had come about due to inequality and racism directed towards French people of colour.[38] La Courneuve, a poverty-stricken municipality (commune) in the Paris region whose residents felt the authorities had neglected them due to racism - was described by police as a no-go zone for officers without reinforcements.[39]

In 2010, Raphaël Stainville of French newspaper Le Figaro called certain neighborhoods of the southern city Perpignan "veritable lawless zones", saying they had become too dangerous to travel in at night. He added that the same was true in parts of Béziers and Nîmes.[40] In 2012, Gilles Demailly [fr], the mayor of the French city Amiens, in the wake of several riots, called the northern part of his city a lawless zone, where one could no longer order a pizza or call for a doctor. The head of a local association said institutional violence had contributed to the tensions resulting in the no-go zone.[41] In 2014, Fabrice Balanche, a scholar of the Middle East, labelled the northern city of Roubaix, as well as parts of Marseille, "mini-Islamic states", saying that the authority of the state is completely absent there.[42] In 2005 France's domestic intelligence network, the Renseignements Generaux, identified 150 "no-go zones" around the country where police would not enter without reinforcements. Christopher Dickey, writing in Newsweek, said the situation had arisen due to racism towards immigrants.[43] The New Republic said no-go zones had developed in France due to a failure to integrate immigrants from France's former colonies, claiming the country had not allowed people of colour to share in the 'blessings of liberty, equality and fraternity'.[44]

In January 2015, after the Charlie Hebdo shooting in Paris, various American media, including the news cable channels Fox News and CNN, described the existence of no-go zones across Europe and in France in particular.[45][46] Both networks were criticized for these statements,[47] and anchors on both networks later apologized for the mistaken characterizations.[48][49][50][51] The mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, said that she intended to sue Fox News for its statements.[52][needs update]

In 2016 Sevran, a Paris commune near Charles de Gaulle airport, in which the origins of the majority of the residents are from outside France and claimed by journalist David Chazan to be a predominantly Muslim area, was alleged by women's rights campaigners to be a no-go zone for women, where women are unofficially banned from public spaces by men. Others, including other women's rights campaigners, disputed this.[53]

[k2skier112]

I would assume that the rates of those things are also commensurate with deaths.
Tests doesn't seem like very reliable indicator given the asymptomatic nature and error rates.

Deaths are on the rise in the US and most of the states. Not sure why you'd want to bring up death rate? Must be Fox fake news report

[concretejungle]

Deaths are on the rise in the US and most of the states. Not sure why you'd want to bring up death rate? Must be Fox fake news report

Because he's an idiot, troll or both.

[huckbucket]

PG shouldn't feel so badly. Kelly McEnany literally made the exact same mistake (?) two minutes ago.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1282735207481778178

[jono]

Nice article. Thanks for linking. Seems the other variable not mentioned is whether the virus mutates to avoid detection (i.e. the traditional "second wave" mechanism). There's been good documentation about the genetic variability observed world-wide, but not a lot is know about whether these changes impact transmission and fatality rates and adaptive immune response.

+1. Mutation is also an unmentioned danger in "trying" for herd immunity by raising the infection total, since more viruses = more chances for mutation, and reduced probability of an effective vaccine. It seems like those arguing for that imagine that mutation is somehow time dependant rather than varying with total virus produced/number infected. (Or maybe I should just ask Austin that directly? Anyone else want to weigh in in favor of more rapid infections?)

If math isn't your first language I can see how that article is just making a short story long, but it seemed like a pretty accessible description and the point that heterogeneity in susceptibility makes a huge difference is important. If only 20% of a herd were infected but 80% of those were the greatest risk takers with lots of close contact then that's a huge difference compared with randomly distributed immunity. But of course it only lasts as long as the other 80% of the population sticks to low-risk behaviors. (Also important whether the most susceptible are also the most likely to transmit, but for behavioral factors that sure seems likely.)

[jono]

Because he's an idiot, troll or both.

You guys would understand PG a lot better if you assumed he's good at accepting seemingly contradictory facts rather than that he's bad at trying to play 4D chess to further an agenda. Both of those can be true

[abraham]

I would assume that the rates of those things are also commensurate with deaths.
Tests doesn't seem like very reliable indicator given the asymptomatic nature and error rates.

Have you looked into the deaths per month from this year vs averages of the last few years. There's a rabbit hole for you

[pureantigravity]

Have you looked into the deaths per month from this year vs averages of the last few years. There's a rabbit hole for you

I'll make a man out of you.
In your part of the world,
if you kiss the girl,
and enjoy the colors of the wind,
you will discover that it is a Whole New World.
Not only will you be a friend like me,
but you will see that it is the circle of life.
Be prepared.
Let it Go.
There's more to this life than
Stayin' alive or even staying healthy.
Hakuna Matata.

[pureantigravity]

Because he's an idiot, troll or both.

You guys would understand PG a lot better if you assumed he's good at accepting seemingly contradictory facts rather than that he's bad at trying to play 4D chess to further an agenda. Both of those can be true

Ha ha. You guys are funny.
Yes - looking OBJECTIVELY at what is happening is more important than getting all riled up over testing numbers.
I'm not JUST a troll BTW
- I'm also your father.

[old goat]

Deaths per million is still lower in Florida than in Canada.
So ... lots of new cases
but not that many lots of new deaths.

That's true if you look at cumulative deaths. US 388/million, Florida 202, Canada 237.
But--what matters--new deaths, 7 day rolling average per day US 2/million, Florida 3.4, Canada 0.5.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/...&values=deaths

[pureantigravity]

That's true if you look at cumulative deaths. US 388/million, Florida 202, Canada 237.
But--what matters--new deaths, 7 day rolling average per day US 2/million, Florida 3.4, Canada 0.5.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/...&values=deaths

Everyone in the south of the USA is sucking each others super cooled air.
Can't assume that just because republicans are the south,
that somehow they are not as good as Nu Joisey.
There's more to this than we know.
Smug North better shut up
before it comes back!

[old goat]

I've heard that umbrella sales are a fantastic way to predict the weather.

No, but the weather is a great way to predict umbrella sales. And more to the point--wildfires.

[bodywhomper]

Back to kids and schools:
Here’s an interesting report on schools and teacher vulnerability

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/10/polit...rus/index.html

And I thought I saw this linked before, but thought it’d be good to share again, the long article from science about kids and school

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...pite-outbreaks

One thing that is disheartening, is that it seems that many districts and counties are basing decisions on community pressure but also on outdated public health guidelines that do not account for the current understandings about transmissions via aerosols.

[old goat]

Everyone in the south of the USA is sucking each others super cooled air.
Can't assume that just because republicans are the south,
that somehow they are not as good as Nu Joisey.
There's more to this than we know.
Smug North better shut up
before it comes back!

https://wamu.org/story/20/07/13/map-...us-in-the-u-s/
so much for the AC theory, which was always pure speculation to begin with.
but I agree with you about the smug northEAST, and that there's more to this than we know.

[Timberridge]

No, but the weather is a great way to predict umbrella sales. And more to the point--wildfires.

And wildfires increase garden hose sales.

[jono]

I would assume that the rates of those things are also commensurate with deaths.
Tests doesn't seem like very reliable indicator given the asymptomatic nature and error rates.

Re: error rates, you have to remember that over large populations the error rate will be consistent. So if you have many, many samples you can subtract out the expected error and be very close to right. In other words, error rates don't make the data unreliable unless you're trying to compare apples and oranges by using different sets of tests.

A more useful number is the percent positive, if you hypothesize that changing test rates are driving the headlines. It's notable that the percent positive has been climbing in most of the same places with rising cases. So that hypothesis looks very unlikely.

[pureantigravity]

Re: error rates, you have to remember that over large populations the error rate will be consistent. So if you have many, many samples you can subtract out the expected error and be very close to right. In other words, error rates don't make the data unreliable unless you're trying to compare apples and oranges by using different sets of tests.

A more useful number is the percent positive, if you hypothesize that changing test rates are driving the headlines. It's notable that the percent positive has been climbing in most of the same places with rising cases. So that hypothesis looks very unlikely.

Here's what we don't know.
Where the deaths are low, and cases are low,
less people actually get tested.
It isn't necessarily because there are not so many people infected or newly infected.
Panic and pandemonium and the impetus to test
can also be a bad thing.

[jono]

Here's what we don't know.
Where the deaths are low, and cases are low,
less people actually get tested.
It isn't necessarily because there are not so many people infected or newly infected.
Panic and pandemonium and the impetus to test
can also be a bad thing.

Who is this we? There is a lot of data available to the avid reader. Here, for instance:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/...tes/washington