Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[jono]

Of course not, but this has been strictly an economic argument.

This post is not valid. Economic arguments are quantitative, not qualitative, because choosing the best path always requires comparing actual numbers. You haven't offered any. You can stop now.

[glademaster]

I think RJ is actually one of the Jones brothers.

[rod9301]

The original idea behind shutdown was to slow spread enough that the medical system could cope and so that PPE and testing resources could be stockpiled. The first has been accomplished, the second never will be, at least under the current administration. Controlling the spread of the virus indefinitely was never the plan. All continued shutdown can do is slow the spread of the virus through the population but it can't reduce the ultimate percent of the population that is infected. The longer shutdown continues the greater the economic damage and in addition, the infrastructure of society and of our personal lives will start to break down with no means or parts to repair it. What happens when your furnace breaks down next winter and there are no parts? It seems reasonable to me to wait for the preliminary results of the current vaccine trials. If the results are sufficiently promising waiting longer would make sense; if it looks like a vaccine is still a long way off we will have no choice but to accept a significant number of deaths. Individuals, especially the retired, will still have the option of isolating themselves, although not as effectively as if everyone else was doing the same.

Actually, the shutdown reduces the r0, which means the virus dies o down. Look at China, Korea, Japan

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[ron johnson]

^ Also, many people assume the ratio of old to young affected by COVID is static. As people adapt to circumstance, and higher-risk people take more precautions, while lower risk people relax their vigilance, then the ratio of confirmed cases will shift towards the young, which is what we're seeing now.

The hospitalization rate and death rate to hospitalization rate will go down if new infections average younger, but it's tendentious to simply assume young people are not at risk.

There is risk everywhere. The risk of a healthy young person dying from this is minuscule.

[Game Over]

One can only ignore reality for so long. It’s been enjoyable seeing the world view of the resident liberal circle jerkers crumble.

[AK47bp]

I think RJ is actually one of the Jonas brothers.

No shit?


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[old goat]

Actually, the shutdown reduces the r0, which means the virus dies o down. Look at China, Korea, Japan

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If you could reduce the R0 to less than 1 all over the world, or reduce it in the US to below 1 and then completely isolate the US from places where the R0 is less than 1 the virus would theoretically die out. But in places that shut down like California the R0 was not reduced below one even before limited reopening was started. China, South Korea, and Japan have not wiped out the virus. Wiping out the virus without a vaccine would require more draconian measures for longer than even the most dictatorial countries can maintain.

[MultiVerse]

One can only ignore reality for so long. It’s been enjoyable seeing the world view of the resident liberal circle jerkers crumble.

lol @ reality. Election year partisan re-framing means ignoring Taiwan, Hong Kong, S Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and so on, along with ignoring the fact that stay at home orders were lifted in lots of places a month ago. All 50 states have either reopened or are in the process of reopening. Meanwhile people still aren't behaving like they used to.

If the coronavirus were actually under control at this point, it’s feasible we’d be poised for a V shaped recovery. By ignoring reality you're lowering our chance at a quick recovery.

[jono]

If you could reduce the R0 to less than 1 all over the world, or reduce it in the US to below 1 and then completely isolate the US from places where the R0 is less than 1 the virus would theoretically die out. But in places that shut down like California the R0 was not reduced below one even before limited reopening was started. China, South Korea, and Japan have not wiped out the virus. Wiping out the virus without a vaccine would require more draconian measures for longer than even the most dictatorial countries can maintain.

It's worth noting that Japan has been less draconian than the US in most respects. Helps to be ready up front, obviously, but nearly universal use of masks that are designed to work instead of for fashion is a pretty big difference compared to here.

[Bunion 2020]

A culture of cooperation and sacrifice of the individual for the good of the many does not hurt either.

With the relative age of the Japanese population they should have been harvested wholesale by this virus.

[Buster Highmen]

.

Please don't quote it.

[bennymac]

Ron Johnson - not only is there no right to have your opinions respected it’s also not anyone’s responsibility here to entertain you.

You seem to keep missing both of these points.

I’m sure you’ll come back asking for a comment on your previous posts and mentioning something about validity. Just loop back to the above point about us not owing you anything and maybe you’ll finally get why I won’t reply.

Ask TGR for a refund for whatever your costs have been. Godspeed on your journey wherever it takes you.

[Harry]

I think RJ is actually an ilikecandy alias.

FIFY.


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[jono]

A culture of cooperation and sacrifice of the individual for the good of the many does not hurt either.

With the relative age of the Japanese population they should have been harvested wholesale by this virus.

Yup. And population density. Ironically, it seems that proximity to China actually turns out to be an advantage.

[rod9301]

If you could reduce the R0 to less than 1 all over the world, or reduce it in the US to below 1 and then completely isolate the US from places where the R0 is less than 1 the virus would theoretically die out. But in places that shut down like California the R0 was not reduced below one even before limited reopening was started. China, South Korea, and Japan have not wiped out the virus. Wiping out the virus without a vaccine would require more draconian measures for longer than even the most dictatorial countries can maintain.

True for China etc, but by still changing the behaviour, doesn't this reduce the r0?

It's true that not much has improved in the us, but from a distance (I'm in France now), it appears that the lockdown was not nearly s complete as what we had here.

So,imo, opportunity was wasted.

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[old goat]

It's worth noting that Japan has been less draconian than the US in most respects. Helps to be ready up front, obviously, but nearly universal use of masks that are designed to work instead of for fashion is a pretty big difference compared to here.

we're no closer to that than we were 3 months ago. Counting on others to protect us is a lost cause (ask women how well that works for birth control). We need N95's for everyone. At least one per day.

[old goat]

True for China etc, but by still changing the behaviour, doesn't this reduce the r0?

It's true that not much has improved in the us, but from a distance (I'm in France now), it appears that the lockdown was not nearly s complete as what we had here.

So,imo, opportunity was wasted.

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Behavior change R0 only as long as the behavior persists. (Where did you acquire the "u" in behaviour?)

[Adolf Allerbush]

Ron Johnson - not only is there no right to have your opinions respected it’s also not anyone’s responsibility here to entertain you.

You seem to keep missing both of these points.

I’m sure you’ll come back asking for a comment on your previous posts and mentioning something about validity. Just loop back to the above point about us not owing you anything and maybe you’ll finally get why I won’t reply.

Ask TGR for a refund for whatever your costs have been. Godspeed on your journey wherever it takes you.

He's been shown to be wrong so many times already and won't leave.

[jono]

we're no closer to that than we were 3 months ago. Counting on others to protect us is a lost cause (ask women how well that works for birth control). We need N95's for everyone. At least one per day.

Or just roll on to P100's and we'd only need to replace/produce the filters. USG spent enough money buying N95 sterilizers from Battel that they could have built a factory from a green field by now. Ridiculous.

[rod9301]

Behavior change R0 only as long as the behavior persists. (Where did you acquire the "u" in behaviour?)

I really thought there was an u, but I'm putting my kids to sleep right now and I'm too lazy to check the spelling. Champagne tonight didn't help, or the mountain bike ride and the climbing.

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[rod9301]

behaviour, it actually does have a u. Just checked it.

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[Norseman]

Your kids? Aren't you like 72yo, Rod? Or is it code?

[ron johnson]

Ron Johnson - not only is there no right to have your opinions respected it’s also not anyone’s responsibility here to entertain you.

You seem to keep missing both of these points.

I’m sure you’ll come back asking for a comment on your previous posts and mentioning something about validity. Just loop back to the above point about us not owing you anything and maybe you’ll finally get why I won’t reply.

Ask TGR for a refund for whatever your costs have been. Godspeed on your journey wherever it takes you.

You don't have to respect my opinions, but equating me as a flat-eather, when you can't find a single post of mine that isn't valid, is total BS.

[ron johnson]

He's been shown to be wrong so many times already and won't leave.

Should be easy to find an example then....

[Harry]

I have this Ron Johnson troll on ignore so I have no idea what he is saying, but from people’s responses it sounds like he thinks the elderly should die ?

I bet my 93 y/o Mom could beat his ass to a pulp with her trekking poles.


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