Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[altasnob]

At the beginning of the pandemic there was all this stupid discussion on whether we can go drive to go skiing, hiking, biking, ect. Of course driving 30 minutes and going hiking doesn't cause the virus to spread (or at least spread rapidly). The virus spreads rapidly when a bunch of people hang out together without masks. Common Sense would tell you this. Sweden recognized that it is best to make simple, universal, and consistent rules and then stick by them. They let people live their life as normal, but asked that they follow these simple rules. They publicly acknowledged that government cannot eliminate all risk. I am not an anti-gov, distrust-gov guy, but I think our response has enabled those who are. That is our biggest mistake.

[The AD]

And for the millionth time - it's not deaths or nothing. There is a lot going on in between, when cases go up. Lots of people getting sick and staying sick for months.

Yes, and I've made that point here several times, but do you think restrictions should be based on people getting sick? I really don't think the majority of Americans would want to damage the economy so greatly because people are getting sick and probably not even requiring hospitalization. Over 200k people dying, on the other hand, is a different story.

[funkendrenchman]

I also don't think it makes sense to simply continue policies that were established at the beginning of this pandemic when we're getting more information about the virus continuously.

I agree with that. The economy does have to continue running and it can be done so relatively safely. The problem these days in the US is that most people barely try to follow the mains rules of social distancing, masks, and small gatherings.

[Toadman]

[The AD]

At the beginning of the pandemic there was all this stupid discussion on whether we can go drive to go skiing, hiking, biking, ect. Of course driving 30 minutes and going hiking doesn't cause the virus to spread (or at least spread rapidly). The virus spreads rapidly when a bunch of people hang out together without masks. Common Sense would tell you this. Sweden recognized that it is best to make simple, universal, and consistent rules and then stick by them. They let people live their life as normal, but asked that they follow these simple rules. They publicly acknowledged that government cannot eliminate all risk. I am not an anti-gov, distrust-gov guy, but I think our response has enabled those who are. That is our biggest mistake.

But going hiking and allowing people to continue to eat out at restaurants (as Sweden has done) are pretty different in overall risk.

[frorider]

altasnob FWIW I appreciate yer posts in various threads as part of the conversation. Two comments on your post above:

The trade off between ‘Normalcy’ and ‘Controlling Pandemic’ is not a simple binary especially when you consider how ‘Normal’ evolves as science and society evolve. I don’t need to lecture you on how hygiene standards enabled us to eat at restaurants with much less concern over the decades. But the anti mask selfish shitheads today could use similar arguments against the inconvenience of basic modern hygiene in restaurants, hospitals etc. There are countries in Asia for example where ‘normal’ in the past 20 yrs has been that businesses sanitize their door handles a few times a day, and many people wear a mask on polluted days or in a crowded subway. ‘Normal’ is a moving, not static, baseline.

Regarding arbitrary or inconsistent closures of theatres etc: most of us understand that as an initial reaction, it may be appropriate to overreact until such time that measures are defined and implemented that control or mitigate risk. For example, as a country implements decent track and trace capability, that can enable opening many public venues. The inconsistency in the US has been largely caused by a lack of leadership in implementing the measures that would have helped avoid the false binary between Pandemic Control vs Functioning Economy.

We all acknowledge that the orange idiot fucked this up, but let’s learn from an example: travel bans. The locus of concern was Italy when Cheetolini ‘shut down’ travel from China (but not from Italy), but his real fuckup was having zero quarantine processes in place (unlike Australia had). So hudge amounts of people immediately flew from China to the US....

[The AD]

The problem these days in the US is that most people barely try to follow the mains rules of social distancing, masks, and small gatherings.

Agree 100%.

And good post by frorider, too.

[jono]

I'm a fan of how Sweden has handled the pandemic and here is why. They came up with a plan and have stuck with it.

Thanks for stating this up front and saving me from reading that wall of text. As everyone knows, sticking to a plan always works. What was it Patton said? "Every battle plan survives contact with the enemy"? You're a credit to your profession, sir.

[bennymac]

Well that post should set us up for a few solid pages of vitriolic back-and-forth here today. Match, meet gasoline.

A lot of the vitriol gets aimed at internet scholars who yell “we shoulda did Sweden!” when it’s clear, from their post, they are saying “we shouldn’t have changed anything cause...Freedom!” while intentionally ignoring that Sweden didn’t just try to keep their economy running/businesses open but also were strict with recommendations of social distancing and mask wearing and isolation of those that are really vulnerable.

I don’t agree with how they handled it but WTF do I know about epidemiology during a pandemic. Altasnob posted his thoughts in this discussion while knowing all the changes Sweden adopted.

That’s very different than the knee jerk anti science “we shoulda dun Sweden!” which is, as I said, just code for “I couldn’t find Sweden on a map and if I knew more about their country I’d called them socialists and commies but imma use their name as a dog whistle cause I don’t want to have muh life and muh freedom impacted at all - no masks, large groups, MAGA!”

Sweden’s approach deserves discussion.

“We shoulda done nothing - like Sweden!” deserves vitriol.

[altasnob]

As I understand the situation in Sweden, most of their high mortality numbers stems from their inability to protect nursing home populations at the beginning of the pandemic. Once they got that under control, their numbers dropped significantly. They acknowledge they fucked up on that one particular issue. But that doesn't mean the rest of their response was wrong. Swedes aren't dumb and yet I think the average Swede is happy with how their government has handled the pandemic and has a high trust in their government. Can you say that about the average American?

In the US, if you were a big box store (Walmart, Home Depot, ect) you have been open throughout. If you are a small business or restaurant, who might as well just kill yourself now.

[jono]

Sweden's economy has fared worse than their neighbors who have done a better job of controlling the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...ighbors-2020-8

[AK47bp]

UW Medicine stats as of yesterday.

Hospital admissions.

A little spike late summer but so far fall is steady as she goes.




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[The AD]

Yeah, I don't think Sweden's response has been an abject failure, but it certainly hasn't been a success, either. It's also been pointed out many times that their response wouldn't have worked in the U.S. because too many people here wouldn't have listened to the government's guidance to socially distance, etc. I think it's pretty clear that if the U.S. had emulated Sweden we'd have more COVID-19 deaths than we actually have.

[altasnob]

Sweden's economy has fared worse than their neighbors who have done a better job of controlling the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...ighbors-2020-8

Not remarkably worse (8.6% Sweden v. 7.4% in Denmark). And Sweden's economy downfall is on par with other European nations who implemented hard lock downs.

[jono]

Not remarkably worse (8.6% Sweden v. 7.4% in Denmark). And Sweden's economy downfall is on par with other European nations who implemented hard lock downs.

So the argument is that it's better to kill a lot more people if you can do it by only doing a little worse economically?

[altasnob]

Sweden did not close some businesses, but leave others open. This was one of the biggest mistakes made by the US IMO. Sure, close businesses where hundreds are packed side by side. But why close, say, a barber shop and other small businesses? Why are Democrats afraid to attend the Barrett hearing in person wearing an N95 when it is ok for me to shop at Costco? My barber claims he was unable to get any kind of financial help for the closure (sole proprietor could not lay himself off and get unemployment and could not get PPP loan because no other employees). Not sure if this is a true and the guy is a bit of a nut job. But he has no faith in our government telling him the truth about the virus and I can't really blame him if I were in his shoes.

[Harry]

^^ your barber is lying.


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[Bunion 2020]

Yes he was, P3 was easy to manage as was UIC.

[The Tortoise]

And I can see why, early in a pandemic, they might want to close barbershops. On the surface, getting your haircut seems like a pretty likely pathway to spread the virus.

[JaytaeMoney]

My barber claims he was unable to get any kind of financial help for the closure (sole proprietor could not lay himself off and get unemployment and could not get PPP loan because no other employees).

Sole props were eligible for the PPP about a week after it went live at the beginning of April.

[Ted Striker]

And I can see why, early in a pandemic, they might want to close barbershops. On the surface, getting your haircut seems like a pretty likely pathway to spread the virus.

And the business was going to fall off dramatically anyway. Zoom meetings were turning into Lebowski Redux auditions.

[The AD]

Why are Democrats afraid to attend the Barrett hearing in person wearing an N95 when it is ok for me to shop at Costco?

You realize a Senator was there (Mike Lee) who tested positive for COVID-19 less than two weeks ago? Dumb shit even took his mask off when he spoke. And did you see all the idiots at the Rose Garden ceremony for Barrett not wearing masks, and who subsequently tested positive? Heck, I wouldn't want to be around these idiots either.

[Benny Profane]

I'm a fan of how Sweden has handled the pandemic and here is why. They came up with a plan and have stuck with it. Yes, that plan has cost them lives. But it will always be a balance between saving lives and having a normally functioning society. Politicians will not admit this publicly, but it is true. Sweden requires masks, encourages social distancing, and restricted large gatherings. Other than that, society functions as normal and has done so throughout the pandemic. This is their rules at the beginning of the pandemic, and this is their rule today.

This is what kills me about America's response and specifically Washington State (which is doing about as well as anywhere in America). Public parks and playgrounds were closed at the beginning of the pandemic. Now, with numbers as bad as they were early in the pandemic, parks are open. What changed? Same thing with restaurants, museums, movie theaters, ect (closed in the beginning but open now). The public loses faith in the policy makers when they appear to be arbitrarily imposing and removing restrictions. I like that Sweden has been consistent in their approach throughout. This is extremely important to gain and maintain the public's faith. Gaining and maintaining the public trust is the most important aspect of pandemic control. This cannot be overemphasized.

At the end of the day, we should follow Sweden's model (masks, social distancing, restrictions on large groups). After that, what happens, happens. I would love to revisit my statements a year or two from now because at the end of the pandemic, I think people will argue that Sweden actually took the correct response to the pandemic, particularly when looking at Western democracies.

Let's get back to this post when winter grabs hold. Summer has better distancing.

[Benny Profane]

At the beginning of the pandemic there was all this stupid discussion on whether we can go drive to go skiing, hiking, biking, ect. Of course driving 30 minutes and going hiking doesn't cause the virus to spread (or at least spread rapidly). The virus spreads rapidly when a bunch of people hang out together without masks. Common Sense would tell you this. Sweden recognized that it is best to make simple, universal, and consistent rules and then stick by them. They let people live their life as normal, but asked that they follow these simple rules. They publicly acknowledged that government cannot eliminate all risk. I am not an anti-gov, distrust-gov guy, but I think our response has enabled those who are. That is our biggest mistake.

Which response?

[Benny Profane]

^^ your barber is lying.


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My barber almost lost a customer when he started with the hoax shit, but he shut up when he realized that wouldn't be smart. I tip well.