Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Benny Profane]

Levity bennie. I am living this everyday. Most of my hospital clients are in defcon 5 and have been for weeks and my wife is a NP provider to kids with cancer. We go through an entire disinfectant routine every day to keep her myself and my kids safe. It looks like Chernoble in my garage every afternoon. We have been socially apart going on 2 weeks now and its a strain to our family
So make your underwear jokes and call us rednecks if it makes you feel better.

I meant Cuomo. If he has logos on his underwear.

[glademaster]

I meant Cuomo. If he has logos on his underwear.

That's how I read it too.

[ncskier]

I didn't take it that way. I was just making a counterpoint to those treating the south as monolithic Trumpland.

That is correct.

[gravitylover]

serious question, but does anyone know the number of folks intubated that actually recover?

I think that unresolved column is very telling. It has been steadily but slowly climbing in lockstep with the hospitalized cases but at a slightly slower rate.

[ncskier]

I think that unresolved column is very telling. It has been steadily but slowly climbing in lockstep with the hospitalized cases but at a slightly slower rate.

So I guess what I'm asking, is it a death sentence to be vented at this point in America. I feel like for some reason in Italy if you hit the vent you were done

[Adolf Allerbush]

You can throw out China because they are a couple months ahead of us. We have a good view of their total death count where we don't for most other countries. I think the difference in the other countries versus the U.S. could be in capacity. No area in the U.S. has yet been overwhelmed, which is the case in Italy for example.

It may have been said already but one of my MD buddies was saying the only data we should be looking at is from SK and Germany because those are the only two places with widespread testing and that are unlikely to be manipulating the numbers in their favor, such as China. He pointed out that the deathrate looks like it's in the 0.1% to 0.15% range, similar to flu, but the obvious difference with COVID-19 is that it's easily transmissible. I guess that's sort of old news, but it was somewhat reassuring that its not as dire as some of the media outlets are painting it...not sure if that's just them being cautious, trying to get ratings, inability to focus their reporting, or some combination of those and other factors.

[gravitylover]

serious question, but does anyone know the number of folks intubated that actually recover?

So I guess what I'm asking, is it a death sentence to be vented at this point in America. I feel like for some reason in Italy if you hit the vent you were done

I read somewhere on Monday a nurse in the PNW saying that they haven''t extubated a live patient.

[LegoSkier]

Or day 20 (not kidding)

Pretty much this:


From:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...566-3/fulltext

[ncskier]

I read somewhere on Monday a nurse in the PNW saying that they haven''t extubated a live patient.

Ok. Well that's sobering. Not being glib and everyone should hold out hope, but I'd want more masks and tests and disinfectant before more vents if I was Cuomo. I can't imagine the Javit's center being filled with 1000's on vents waiting for a recovery that never happens.

[mcski]

I recall that patient zero in Italy was a super fit 38 yr old athlete and was on a vent for three weeks before he got off of it. That’s gives me an indication of the level of suck it would be to go on a vent. Not a relaxing or preferable way to die. Alone.

I just read that in 1980, the US had 6 beds/1000 population and now we are less than half of that at 2.8/1000. We haven’t had sufficient nursing coverage in decades. Fuck our system.

[Lone Star]

If this is already the attitude, Easter could be a stretch. Also, makes the recent upticks in the stock market even more lollable.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

He actually tweeted that. We are so unbelievably fucked.

[Garbowski]

This is a great site that has the numbers scaled by population. Have not found one that can do the US cities/states yet.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

US is not too bad actually...yet.



Adding Italy and Spain on here shows how much of a disaster it is.



I'm in Seattle, so I have been following the King County numbers. We are at 123 deaths for 2.189 million, so 45 per million. Certianly worse than most countries but wonder how it stacks up to other cities.

Italy is currently at 112/million. Scaling that to US size would be about 35 thousand deaths total.

[MultiVerse]

It may have been said already but one of my MD buddies was saying the only data we should be looking at is from SK and Germany because those are the only two places with widespread testing and that are unlikely to be manipulating the numbers in their favor, such as China. He pointed out that the deathrate looks like it's in the 0.1% to 0.15% range, similar to flu, but the obvious difference with COVID-19 is that it's easily transmissible. I guess that's sort of old news, but it was somewhat reassuring that its not as dire as some of the media outlets are painting it...not sure if that's just them being cautious, trying to get ratings, inability to focus their reporting, or some combination of those and other factors.

Fatality risk is just one metric. Every year somewhere between 5% to 20% of the U.S. population gets the flu. The percentages aren't higher because some people are vaccinated and there's also some herd immunity unless it's a novel strain. Setting aside uncertain fatality rates, other factors come into play like population susceptibility. Unfortunately, nearly everyone is susceptible to COVID-19.

[glademaster]

If this is already the attitude, Easter could be a stretch. Also, makes the recent upticks in the stock market even more lollable.

That settles it, I'm definitely going to get told to resume work as usual on Monday. Whee. What a fuckin' assclown.

[Danno]

Saw your screen name and got excited for a minute that tele-hoar made a post. Anyone know how Scotty is doing?

Haven't seen him in person in a long time, but he's been posting on FB and seems fine.

[grinch]

Well shit, I think I lost a friend to the virus recently. I had a tele-appt with my cardiologist this morning and he begged me not to go out anymore. Apparently he lost a patient that was a mt biker a few weeks ago, the guy couldn't get tested because it wasn't important yet and since there's no antibody test they can't prove it was Covid 19 but, all the signs were there. They did do an autopsy and his lungs were ravaged with fibrosis but so were two of the arteries around his heart, one is the same artery that I have a 70% blockage in and the other I have a 30% block in. He was pretty adamant about me staying away from all people, even said that if my wife goes out to go to the supermarket that I should move out and find another place to live. I was like where, the car? WTF... I was wondering why this person had stopped posting and wasn't showing up in pics from people that are out riding, I think I know now

Shit! Be careful. Ive added vitamin D to my supplements. Supposed to help fight lung infections, among other things

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[Benny Profane]

If this is already the attitude, Easter could be a stretch. Also, makes the recent upticks in the stock market even more lollable.

So that's his plan. Blame China and the media. Might work.

[splat]

I think the south will be fine. We are spread out. Hell WV hung in to sweep the race to the first case recorded.
It’s NYC I worry about.

I thought they were the last state to record a case?

[Adolf Allerbush]

Fatality risk is just one metric. Every year somewhere between 5% to 20% of the U.S. population gets the flu. The percentages aren't higher because some people are vaccinated and there's also some herd immunity unless it's a novel strain. Setting aside uncertain fatality rates, other factors come into play like population susceptibility. Unfortunately, nearly everyone is susceptible to COVID-19.

Thanks...and certainly not trying to dismiss the seriousness of COVID-19...but trying to convey some perspective that I thought was somewhat reassuring...if you can consider anything about this reassuring.

[hawkgt]

[ncskier]

I thought they were the last state to record a case?

Yes I misspoke I meant last


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[MultiVerse]

Thanks...and certainly not trying to dismiss the seriousness of COVID-19...but trying to convey some perspective that I thought was somewhat reassuring...if you can consider anything about this reassuring.

Agreed, if the numbers pan out then it is reassuring for those of us in low risk groups who also have access to emergency care should the need arise. Heart and lung damage is still a concern for survivors and it's a miserable trip for the symptomatic regardless, even for so called "mild" cases:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/m...us-family.html

[Danno]

fantastico!

[klauss]

Agreed, if the numbers pan out then it is reassuring for those of us in low risk groups who also have access to emergency care should the need arise. Heart and lung damage is still a concern for survivors and it's a miserable trip for the symptomatic regardless, even for so called "mild" cases:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/m...us-family.html

I thought advil was not recommended