Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Cono Este]

Watching bbc this morning and I was glad to hear the NHS at some locations is not allowing people in with home made masks etc. there is some serious profiteering going on right now with masks that do next to nothing but give people a false sense of security.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[huckbucket]

Article in Atlantic explains how it is possible to reach heard immunity with as low as 20% of the population infected. In other words, that would mean places like NYC are very close to reaching herd immunity. Read the article for full details, but butterfly effect/chaos theory can wildly skew model predictions and humans can manipulate models in their favor by doing things like socially distance and wearing masks.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/

Nice article. Thanks for linking. Seems the other variable not mentioned is whether the virus mutates to avoid detection (i.e. the traditional "second wave" mechanism). There's been good documentation about the genetic variability observed world-wide, but not a lot is know about whether these changes impact transmission and fatality rates and adaptive immune response.

[huckbucket]

I'd like to see the evidence of this. If true it certainly changes the school discussion.

Mixed message. Five days ago the CDC said they have DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH DATA to help them determine if children “... driving the transmission cycle”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/cdc-...many-kids.html

That's a very different message than "children don't seem to have the ability to pass the virus to each other or adults."

I too would like to see their data.

[funkendrenchman]

I'd like to see the evidence of this. If true it certainly changes the school discussion.

If this were actually proven, it would be all over the news. I've seen nothing except uncertainty.

[Ski220]

In France there are over 100 zones where the police is not allowed to go. Mostly Muslim North Africans, gangs. There is no justice there at all.



Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

Not so much as "not allowed" as in "won't"

Oh bull fucking shit. This RT trump fucktard fever dream was debunked long ago.

You are wrong.

Wait, not sure what you're saying.
I'm in France and there are police no go zones.

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

How do you know? Why should I believe you? Can anyone else here vouch for you not being a troll or a nut?

I ask that because of this.



https://bridge.georgetown.edu/resear...piracy-theory/

Do you know how many French people I've talked to? Not people from France, people who live all over France.

It's horse shit and you're full of shit.

I don't know where to persons you talk to live in France, but, I have direct relatives in France and the Neatherlands and the 'Police No-Go Zones' is fact and a reality.

Clouded vision is on all sides. Open yourself up to possible realities that don't conform to your, already, percieved truths.

[liv2ski]

All I know is I am glad I encouraged my wife to retire from teaching last January in the middle of the school year ( her principal was pissed, but fuck that guy). To be a teacher in a classroom of 32-36 sick fuckin kids, no thanks. Could not pay me enough. It will be interesting to see, but I would not count on teachers showing up in the fall. It will be on-line instruction, so you Dentists better line up your Au Pair.

[Adolf Allerbush]

I'd like to see the evidence of this. If true it certainly changes the school discussion.

that would be better news, but I'm having a hard time finding that finding anywhere: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/kids-...id-19-n1233550

Sounds like it's harder for kids to pass it to other kids and adults, maybe? They're not really sure, but they are sure that they will be sending their kids back to school.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Not so much as "not allowed" as in "won't"



You are wrong.







I don't know where to persons you talk to live in France, but, I have direct relatives in France and the Neatherlands and the 'Police No-Go Zones' is fact and a reality.

Clouded vision is on all sides. Open yourself up to possible realities that don't conform to your, already, percieved truths.

I don't live in France so I'm reading things like this and it says the opposite of what you and others are claiming: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nogo-zone-myth

More importantly...why is it being discussed in this thread?

[simple]

Anyone else watch the Betsy Devos interview yesterday? She is a fucking muppet. Just kept repeating the lines she was instructed to say and couldn't give any facts. We are so fucked.

[The AD]

Sounds like it's harder for kids to pass it to other kids and adults, maybe? They're not really sure, but they are sure that they will be sending their kids back to school.

Sounds like it settled, then. All kids back to school. What could possibly go wrong?

[glademaster]

We are so fucked.

I said this repeatedly back in February and early March and was told to knock it off with the hyperbolic nonsense.

[Timberridge]

Yeah but you're a glass half full guy in the best of circumstances.

[old goat]

Article in Atlantic explains how it is possible to reach heard immunity with as low as 20% of the population infected. In other words, that would mean places like NYC are very close to reaching herd immunity. Read the article for full details, but butterfly effect/chaos theory can wildly skew model predictions and humans can manipulate models in their favor by doing things like socially distance and wearing masks.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...avirus/614035/

The article leads with the "as low as 20%" hypothesis but there are a lot of caveats and other people quoted who dispute the hypothesis. To me it seems a fool's errand to try to use mathematics to predict the behavior of a complex biologic and behavioral system. The only prediction regarding herd immunity that makes sense to me is "we don't know".

The idea that small differences in initial response can make big differences in the outcome does make sense--anyone who has modeled saving and investing for retirement knows that.

[Benny Profane]

All I know is I am glad I encouraged my wife to retire from teaching last January in the middle of the school year ( her principal was pissed, but fuck that guy). To be a teacher in a classroom of 32-36 sick fuckin kids, no thanks. Could not pay me enough. It will be interesting to see, but I would not count on teachers showing up in the fall. It will be on-line instruction, so you Dentists better line up your Au Pair.

How soon we forget the teacher strikes from just a year or so ago.

[Benny Profane]

Yeah but you're a glass half full guy in the best of circumstances.

Short sellers get rich, too.

[liv2ski]

How soon we forget the teacher strikes from just a year or so ago.

Education and all parents are looking at huge challenges in the fall. https://www.yahoo.com/news/america-n...093007863.html

I suspect thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of teachers across the United States are going to quit in the next year because either their districts can’t afford to keep them safe or online teaching is so bad and unsatisfying that they get frustrated. Teachers in Fairfax county, Virginia, have already pledged not to teach in person this fall because their district has not planned adequately for safety and educational quality. The workload of preparing for both live and online teaching means overworked and underpaid teachers will have to work twice as hard this year for less money, since few received cost-of-living adjustments this year.

[Benny Profane]

It's not as though they're leaving high paid jobs.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Sounds like it settled, then. All kids back to school. What could possibly go wrong?

My thoughts exactly. If (when?) a teacher dies I can't imagine what it will be like for the kid who ends up being identified as the vector after contract tracing is completed. Having that on your head is going to be tough to deal with...and it will partially be the parents fault.

[simple]

Since the US doesn't really have effective contact tracing it should go great!

[KQ]

I'd like to see the evidence of this. If true it certainly changes the school discussion.

If this were actually proven, it would be all over the news. I've seen nothing except uncertainty.

Actually it's been in the news for a while with many doctors saying the same thing: They would unreservedly send their kids back to school.

Here is an opinion piece from CNN this morning:

Pediatrician: The truth about reopening schools during Covid

My thoughts exactly. If (when?) a teacher dies I can't imagine what it will be like for the kid who ends up being identified as the vector after contract tracing is completed. Having that on your head is going to be tough to deal with...and it will partially be the parents fault.

Three Arizona teachers who shared a classroom got coronavirus. One of them died


Kimberley Chavez Lopez Byrd loved the outdoors.


BTW - I believe they've stopped identifying people who are vectors so as not to cause them guilt and retribution.

[liv2ski]

My thoughts exactly. If (when?) a teacher dies I can't imagine what it will be like for the kid who ends up being identified as the vector after contract tracing is completed. Having that on your head is going to be tough to deal with...and it will partially be the parents fault.

It will be difficult for sure as I am certain temperatures will be done at the door to the class, but what if the carrier has 0 symptoms? Teachers are going to really struggle this year.

[pureantigravity]

Deaths per million is still lower in Florida than in Canada.
So ... lots of new cases
but not that many lots of new deaths.

[The SnowShow]

Anyone else watch the Betsy Devos interview yesterday? She is a fucking muppet. Just kept repeating the lines she was instructed to say and couldn't give any facts. We are so fucked.

Yes, she is a disaster. No plan, no facts, didn’t answer the simple questions given. Isn’t her fucking job to figure out a roadmap for schools to guide them about reopening/reclosing if an infection occurs or a certain region has X amount of cases vs a certain region with 5x amount of cases? She basically said every school should figure it out. Complete utter failure.

Yet another fumble by the Federal government. I have no confidence this is going to go well at all.

[KQ]

I don't live in France so I'm reading things like this and it says the opposite of what you and others are claiming: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nogo-zone-myth

More importantly...why is it being discussed in this thread?

because I posted a story about a bus driver in France who was beaten to death by passengers he asked to don masks as per the mandate.

Deaths per million is still lower in Florida than in Canada.
So ... lots of new cases
but not that many lots of new deaths.

Just you wait Henry Higgins

[Cono Este]

All I know is I am glad I encouraged my wife to retire from teaching last January in the middle of the school year ( her principal was pissed, but fuck that guy). To be a teacher in a classroom of 32-36 sick fuckin kids, no thanks. Could not pay me enough. It will be interesting to see, but I would not count on teachers showing up in the fall. It will be on-line instruction, so you Dentists better line up your Au Pair.

My gf is an elementary school teacher, but a reading specialist so small groups b

Unless she can work remotely, I plan on battling Covid soon.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums