Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Tri-Ungulate]

Yes. The shingles vaccine is effective, which is hopeful for SARS CoV 2. Usually immune escape comes from either mutation of the virion, or waning of the immune system itself, for any number of reasons (senescence, time, stress, externalities like chemotherapy).

And from what little I know, SARS CoV 2 doesn't appear to mutate rapidly so it should be a good target for a durable immune response, whether it be in convalescent patients (who beat the infection) or vaccinated patients (assuming - big if - the vaccine is effective). Theoretically. But I always temper my optimism with the knowledge that biology is usually more complicated than we assume mechanistically.

[old goat]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-corporations/
The group at Oxford has a vaccine starting phase 3 trials in a month. They feel they can go into production in September IF the vaccine works. (It works in monkeys apparently.)
Not a lot in the article about the details of the trial. The time line seems problematic. Britain is still locked down. Presuming the volunteers observe the restrictions it's quite possible that neither the placebo group nor the vaccinated group will develop any cases by then. Maybe they are using volunteers in essential jobs who are being exposed. Maybe they're using health care workers treating Covid patients--the article doesn't say. Maybe they're sending them to Georgia to get haircuts, manicures, and tattoos.

The nonprofit Oxford group is making arrangements for multiple pharma companies to produce the drug in order to produce as many doses as possible as quickly as possible. Apparently the largest, in India, is starting production now to get a head start, in the hope that it works. Interesting side note--no North American company is willing to participate--they all have a policy of not getting involved in any drug or vaccine unless they are given exclusive worldwide marketing rights. Defense Production Act? Or should the USA be the last country on the planet to be vaccinated--why ruin our perfect record of fucking up?

Emphasis--there is no guarantee the vaccine will work. The Oxford vaccine involves inserting a piece of SARS-CV2 RNA into a coronavirus that causes colds, weakening that virus so it doesn't spread, and injecting that. (Side note--why weaken the cold virus. You could indirectly vaccinate people if they caught a cold from vaccinated people while they were waiting for the real thing.) No working vaccine has ever been produced by this method. There is no guarantee that the body will produce antibodies to the short piece of RNA. There is no guarantee that the antibodies to the RNA will kill the virus--the antibodies may not be able to get through the outer coat of the virus to the RNA. There is no guarantee the antibodies will last. (Why they sometimes do and sometimes don't I don't remember enough immunology to explain.) Reminder--there is still no HIV or Ebola vaccine (there are Ebola vaccines in trials.)

Caveat--my immunology was decades ago. There are people here who can correct my mistakes--please.

[Garbowski]

Reminder--there is still no HIV or Ebola vaccine (there are Ebola vaccines in trials.)

There's also no vaccine for SARS-CoV(1).

[powdork]

i haven't been here in a while, so I assume this has been posted, but I found it useful. The title is a bit misleading, because it also talks as much about the value of the charts

[Adolf Allerbush]

I gotta tell you, in the news coverage I saw last night streets, restaurants, bars, stores were crowded crowded crowded with no masks, no social distancing, nothing.

I hear you, but that might be to get eyeballs on screens. Here's one example: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carliep.../#1b28c9ea1714

Recent numbers show Swedes appear to be following social distancing guidelines even when they’re not required by law. Passenger numbers on public transportation in the capital have fallen by half, and polls indicate that half of residents there are working from home.

or, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...e-economy.html

Consider Sweden, which has taken an unusually hands-off approach to the crisis, including allowing theaters to stay open. Most Swedish theaters are closed anyway due to a lack of customer demand and a lack of films to show.

Would folks in the US do something like the Swedes and voluntarily SD? I guess anything is possible.

[54-46]

Sweden’s per capita death toll is about 6-10x higher than similar countries that locked down.

Ex: 2200+ deaths in Sweden (10M pop.) vs. ~220 in Norway.

Some may say that’s acceptable. . Some would not.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...s-2020-4%3famp

[happytimefunbox]

Shuffling songs this morning on the way into the fun factory and this one came on and resonated.
Might have tickled a hundo in the shaggen wagon by the end of it.
We are currently going down the Fat Wreckords rabbit hole on Hughtube at the shop.
There could be stage diving and a moshpit by lunchtime...

Couch Boy
NUFAN

Sometimes the news bums me out it doesn't get me off the couch.
Where I belong I guess as world problems never seem to rest.
Am I afraid?
God yes I am!
Won't somebody tell me why my t.v. claims we're born to die like this...

Communicate don't separate don't instigate a world of hate.
Contemplate the situation.
Negotiate those lazy ways we've gone too far to slip away.
Solution is an invitation.

Lazy I am, realistically what can I do?
I'll leave it up to the rest of you.
You wouldn't like my point of view anyway.
How can I stand aside and watch the weary world go by?
It's easy when you haven't got a window just a screen...

[glademaster]

So when are we finally going to come to terms with the fact that this thing kills 3-5% of the people who are infected with it? The writing is on the wall that it is far deadlier than anyone cares to admit.

[schuss]

So when are we finally going to come to terms with the fact that this thing kills 3-5% of the people who are infected with it? The writing is on the wall that it is far deadlier than anyone cares to admit.

Talking sense to Trumpers has been a fools errand thus far....

[glademaster]

Talking sense to Trumpers has been a fools errand thus far....

Fair enough. Can the adults in the room agree that the mortality rate from this thing is pretty fucking unsettling, and is going to end up being significantly higher than 1%, no matter how much testing we do? To get it into that 0.5-1% ballpark, that would mean that right now, 1 out of every 25 Americans(roughly) is infected with it. That seems unlikely.

[huckbucket]

So when are we finally going to come to terms with the fact that this thing kills 3-5% of the people who are infected with it? The writing is on the wall that it is far deadlier than anyone cares to admit.

If you believe guidance from the NY sero studies, it's closer to 0.5 - 1% which still blows. Notably, death isn't the only thing that sucks about getting infected. Lots of people who recover but have lasting pulmonary effects.

And this just in ... this morning Gilead is claiming success with Remdesivir in their govt run study (NIAID) although they have yet to show the data. It was blinded which is good. They've also shown independently that 5 days of drug is equivalent to 10, which is also good.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/...-to-treatment/

Interesting that Fauci is the Director of the NIAID (has been forever).

[DougW]

The logic for the lock-down was preventing overwhelming hospital systems, right?

That was the original logic . It sounded very sound and Italy was the poster child of the dangers of not doing it. It has since changed into reduce the infection rate to some low level where the medical system can track the infected contacts and with testing get rid of it ( or something like that as it not as clear what the game plan is).

[glademaster]

If you believe guidance from the NY sero studies, it's closer to 0.5 - 1% which still blows. Notably, death isn't the only thing that sucks about getting infected. Lots of people who recover but have lasting pulmonary effects.

You seem to be following this closely, so what does the data show about false positive rates with the antibody testing they're doing in New York?

I'm skeptical that the mortality rate will end up that low. And I agree completely, something that doesn't seem to get the attention is deserves is that recovering from this thing doesn't necessarily mean you're back to normal. Having compromised respiratory function would fucking blow.

[DougW]

Sweden’s per capita death toll is about 6-10x higher than similar countries that locked down.

Ex: 2200+ deaths in Sweden (10M pop.) vs. ~220 in Norway.

Some may say that’s acceptable. . Some would not.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bus...s-2020-4%3famp

here's a link to a good interview , it does seem that the Swedes as the people's support to what their gov't has done. He also directly addresses the 20 med people letter and said it was dismissed in Sweden and got no traction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo4NiHaSxLw

[schuss]

Fair enough. Can the adults in the room agree that the mortality rate from this thing is pretty fucking unsettling, and is going to end up being significantly higher than 1%, no matter how much testing we do? To get it into that 0.5-1% ballpark, that would mean that right now, 1 out of every 25 Americans(roughly) is infected with it. That seems unlikely.

Most of us have been saying it from the beginning, along with "this shouldn't be political", but then assbag in chief wanted to feel important and now a lot of people will die so they can own the libs.
There's little hope of meaningful containment until Trump and McConnell are out of the picture.

[gravitylover]

Most of us have been saying it from the beginning, along with "this shouldn't be political", but then assbag in chief wanted to feel important and now a lot of people will die so they can own the libs.
There's little hope of meaningful containment until Trump and McConnell are out of the picture.

And that right there is the bottom line.

[Buster Highmen]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-corporations/
The nonprofit Oxford group is making arrangements for multiple pharma companies to produce the drug in order to produce as many doses as possible as quickly as possible. Apparently the largest, in India, is starting production now to get a head start, in the hope that it works. Interesting side note--no North American company is willing to participate--they all have a policy of not getting involved in any drug or vaccine unless they are given exclusive worldwide marketing rights. Defense Production Act? Or should the USA be the last country on the planet to be vaccinated--why ruin our perfect record of fucking up?.

The same companies that are on the corporate welfare tit and capitalizing on tax payer funded research?

[k2skier112]

Talking sense to Trumpers has been a fools errand thus far....

I had this opportunity last weekend
I'd rather slam my dick in the car door than discus COVID-19 with another red-hatter, JFC they're brainwashed by cinnamon hitler

[hutash]

I have missed a bunch of pages, so don't know if this has been covered, but another and very big worry is this virus appears to be causing micro embolisms and causing strokes, renal infarcts and other such clots cause subtle to not so ubtlestble organ damage that may not be reversible. Even mild cases may leave people with organ damage that comes back to haunt them later in life. Trash your kidneys or liver now, and you won't have much reserve later in life when all those years of drinking and partying really come home to roost.

So go ahead and open everything up and let people get infected, what could possibly go wrong?

[seano732]

I'd rather slam my dick in the car door than discus COVID-19 with another red-hatter, JFC they're brainwashed by cinnamon hitler

Sig-worthy.....

[uglymoney]

I had this opportunity last weekend
I'd rather slam my dick in the car door than discus COVID-19 with another red-hatter, JFC they're brainwashed by cinnamon hitler

Yep. The worst are the ones who still won't admit they are Trump bootlickers. White male. Age 35. Pretend to be free thinking indies but consistently parrot right wing talking points 2 days after every single man made right wing catastrophe. Not worth it.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[east or bust]

Fair enough. Can the adults in the room agree that the mortality rate from this thing is pretty fucking unsettling, and is going to end up being significantly higher than 1%, no matter how much testing we do? To get it into that 0.5-1% ballpark, that would mean that right now, 1 out of every 25 Americans(roughly) is infected with it. That seems unlikely.

Saying it must have a mortality rate greater than 1% is just another unsubstantiated claim at this point.

There are certainly ways of interpolating available data pertaining to age (IMO the most telling risk factor), underlying health conditions, etc and applying those numbers to the population as a whole. I haven't seen any peer reviewed studies that have done this yet.

[old goat]

I'd rather slam my dick in the car door than discus COVID-19 with another red-hatter,

I know you're getting stir crazy stuck at home but try to remember to put your pants on before you go out.

[KQ]

I have missed a bunch of pages, so don't know if this has been covered, but another and very big worry is this virus appears to be causing micro embolisms and causing strokes, renal infarcts and other such clots cause subtle to not so ubtlestble organ damage that may not be reversible. Even mild cases may leave people with organ damage that comes back to haunt them later in life. Trash your kidneys or liver now, and you won't have much reserve later in life when all those years of drinking and partying really come home to roost.

So go ahead and open everything up and let people get infected, what could possibly go wrong?

Like scarlet fever. My father had that as a young boy. Damaged his heart and in the end that is what ended his life at 56.

[funkendrenchman]

So when are we finally going to come to terms with the fact that this thing kills 3-5% of the people who are infected with it? The writing is on the wall that it is far deadlier than anyone cares to admit.

How could the death rate remain at 3-5% when you factor in all those asymptotic people that aren't even getting tested? Generally, we are only testing those with symptoms and in the early days only those at risk with symptoms. One wonders how many kids have had this so far, and they are not really being tested in any mass scale.

And in regards to talk about causing future health problems, that's really just speculation at this point as the virus has only been around a few months. Though, it is something to consider.