Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[grinch]

DeSantis is a moron. Agreed. And he is just fucking things up down there for sure. My parents are in Naples, and they are serious about SIP, but a lot of their community has mixed feelings, it seems. Makes me worry. My germaphobe mom Will Dodge The COVID, but what if she turns an ankle and falls.

I can’t surf yet. Just finished pt for a dislocated shoulder and was about to test it in real world surfing then this thing hit. But I can hike and bike on dirt again. And get away from people.

Still working the home pt to hit the water soon.

Desantis is as crooked as he is clueless. Declares the wwe an essential service a day after he gets a yuuuge "campaign" donation. Despite someone on wwe staff testing pos for c19. Apparently wwe tv contract requires live shows. Without live shows they lose millions. A little donation fixed that in short order. Helps when vinces wife is on part of WH admin

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[The AD]

We’ve re opened the beaches. Beaches are actually pretty huge. People spread out. We did not re-open the parking lots. So you need to walk or bike to the beach. Not too many people on the beach, all of them well distanced and way fucking happier than we were last week.

And the parking lots are obviously an area where there's more of a concern, but to me they are something that look worse than they are. It's not like everyone arrives and leaves at the same time.

[The Suit]

How so

First case to statewide stay at home

California 2/26 3/19
Ny. 3/3. 3/22


In reality NY locked down more quickly than California from the discovery of the first case.

Of course this came out of Vaux news.

Your "first case to statewide lockdown" metric is clearly misleading. The big tech companies started sending workers home during the week of March 2nd. The UC system started switching to online classes the next week. My 20-person company encouraged people to work from home starting the 9th and made it mandatory on the 12th. By then traffic was down significantly, restaurants and coffee shops were nearly empty, and toilet paper was already scarce. Gavin Newsom ordered restaurants & bars to close on Sunday the 15th, and the Bay Area shelter-at-home rules were announced the next day.

By contrast, on the 22nd, when NYC ordered people to stay home, a headline from the Guardian said "New York has 5% of Covid-19 cases worldwide as city becomes battlefront." California is the most populous state in the country and it's still well under the new-cases-per-day rate that NY was experiencing when its lockdown began.

[Deebased]

What? Did you say something?

Sure did, mainly because you live in my old hood. Stopped in a few years back to surf pleasure p but its been over-run by NIMBY shit sippers pushing foam boards through white water.

[Conundrum]

Would have been a shame if a can of bear spray happened to go off

Thought about going around the crowd getting signatures for a fake petition that was actually DNR orders but forgot my clipboard. And also wanted to be nowhere near the crowd...one for coronavirus and these folks looked like their stupidity could actually be contagious too.

I'm not against the 1st amendment, but it seems that at some point the right to assemble also infringes on the rights of people to not contract fucking covid from morons. Clearly I'm not a legal expert.

[AK47bp]

On BBC now

Attachment 325604

My guess is they all have below average penis size.


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[iceman]

re: CA vs. NY. I just spent some time trying to find the Times article I read a few days ago without success but the point of the article was that the source of the New York outbreak has been pretty clearly nailed down as being Europe. The source of the CA infection is known to be China. There is far more direct travel between China and California than there is between China and NY, 8 times more IIRC. Because of the huge amount of travel to CA from China, the idea is that the disease got to CA well before it got to NY, brought there by travelers from Europe who got it from China directly or indirectly at some earlier point.

Essentially (goes the theory) it all goes back to transmissibility and herd immunity and the date that the outbreak actually began. The date when the disease arose is unknown. China has pushed it back several times (possibly as far as November is the current thought, but it could even be earlier). It circulated for some time before it was discovered. Prior to that discovery CV cases were thought to be flu cases and didn't raise any particular alarm.

Because there is so much travel between China and CA (again, in the theory) the disease was introduced to CA very early and spread rather quietly. People were getting sick, but nobody had ever heard of CV at that point, so there was no particular alarm. Because of the transmissibility of the disease, and the fact that nobody even knew it existed. CA was able to develop a level of herd immunity that New York did not have on the same dates.

Add in the differences in population age and overall health, population density and the way people live (as Benny pointed out, cars v. subways would be one such difference) and voila. Obviously randomized sampling is needed to establish infection rates but the belief is/is theorized to be that such testing would show that a much higher percentage of Californians have had the disease than of New Yorkers. As the disease spreads everywhere it may not be possible to prove this theory in the future, in fact it may be too late now.

[simple]

My guess is they all have below average penis size.


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And the porn they prefer to watch is BBG with blonde girls.

[MultiVerse]

A new study released today on COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California suggests on infection rate of between 2.49% and 4.16% in the county as of 4/4/2020. So much more widespread than confirmed cases would indicate but not as wide spread as hoped in the sense of approaching herd immunity. This data point suggests something upwards of a 50:1 unconfirmed to confirmed ratio for Santa Clara.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...463v1.full.pdf

[Deebased]

Your "first case to statewide lockdown" metric is clearly misleading. The big tech companies started sending workers home during the week of March 2nd. The UC system started switching to online classes the next week. My 20-person company encouraged people to work from home starting the 9th and made it mandatory on the 12th. By then traffic was down significantly, restaurants and coffee shops were nearly empty, and toilet paper was already scarce. Gavin Newsom ordered restaurants & bars to close on Sunday the 15th, and the Bay Area shelter-at-home rules were announced the next day.

By contrast, on the 22nd, when NYC ordered people to stay home, a headline from the Guardian said "New York has 5% of Covid-19 cases worldwide as city becomes battlefront." California is the most populous state in the country and it's still well under the new-cases-per-day rate that NY was experiencing when its lockdown began.

Those numbers came straight from Vox.

Going off the first community transmission date. NY is a week behind CA.

Businesses and schools in NY starting closing on 3/12
Casinos, Gyms and Theaters were ordered closed on 3/16 across the tri-state area.
Private business were moving faster and shutting down/working from home late in the 3/9 week as well.
Point being the Vox feel-good theory is flawed. Its not the states responsiveness that saved CA. Instead its population density, public transportation and other factors (weather, age, fitness, strain, ??) that massacred NY.

Compounding that is the Stanford Santa Clara county antibody study that dropped yesterday but the media is just starting to process today. Alarmingly good news if you believe in herd immunity.

[The Suit]

re: CA vs. NY. I just spent some time trying to find the Times article I read a few days ago without success but the point of the article was that the source of the New York outbreak has been pretty clearly nailed down as being Europe. The source of the CA infection is known to be China. There is far more direct travel between China and California than there is between China and NY, 8 times more IIRC. Because of the huge amount of travel to CA from China, the idea is that the disease got to CA well before it got to NY, brought there by travelers from Europe who got it from China directly or indirectly at some earlier point.

Essentially (goes the theory) it all goes back to transmissibility and herd immunity and the date that the outbreak actually began. The date when the disease arose is unknown. China has pushed it back several times (possibly as far as November is the current thought, but it could even be earlier). It circulated for some time before it was discovered. Prior to that discovery CV cases were thought to be flu cases and didn't raise any particular alarm.

Because there is so much travel between China and CA (again, in the theory) the disease was introduced to CA very early and spread rather quietly. People were getting sick, but nobody had ever heard of CV at that point, so there was no particular alarm. Because of the transmissibility of the disease, and the fact that nobody even knew it existed. CA was able to develop a level of herd immunity that New York did not have on the same dates.

Add in the differences in population age and overall health, population density and the way people live (as Benny pointed out, cars v. subways would be one such difference) and voila. Obviously randomized sampling is needed to establish infection rates but the belief is/is theorized to be that such testing would show that a much higher percentage of Californians have had the disease than of New Yorkers. As the disease spreads everywhere it may not be possible to prove this theory in the future, in fact it may be too late now.

I don't think that theory's going to hold up. The study that was just completed in Santa Clara county estimated a 2.5 - 4% infection prevalence as of two weeks ago. That's not even close to herd immunity levels.

[Deebased]

A new study released today on COVID-19 antibody seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California suggests on infection rate of between 2.49% and 4.16% in the county as of 4/4/2020. So much more widespread than confirmed cases would indicate but not as wide spread as hoped in the sense of dramatically lowered risk.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...463v1.full.pdf

Meaning the infection rate is 85x higher than reported.

[The Suit]

Those numbers came straight from Vox.

Going off the first community transmission date. NY is a week behind CA.

Businesses and schools in NY starting closing on 3/12
Casinos, Gyms and Theaters were ordered closed on 3/16 across the tri-state area.
Private business were moving faster and shutting down/working from home late in the 3/9 week as well.
Point being the Vox feel-good theory is flawed. Its not the states responsiveness that saved CA. Instead its population density, public transportation and other factors (weather, age, fitness, strain, ??) that massacred NY.

Compounding that is the Stanford Santa Clara county antibody study that dropped yesterday but the media is just starting to process today. Alarmingly good news if you believe in herd immunity.

Thank you for reminding me not to bother posting here.

[MultiVerse]

Meaning the infection rate is 85x higher than reported.

Maybe somewhere between 50 and 85. It's just one study so don't be so quick to jump to conclusions. These studies are just reporting results and are not intended as the final answer to the question of infection rates. Some of it could be a lack of early PCR test availability when people with symptoms went untested, for example.

But if we take the results at face value then it is good news because the COVID-19 IFR is between 0.12-0.2%. Still an order of magnitude higher than the flu (0.001-0.01%) but much lower than previously thought.

[Deebased]

Maybe. It's just one study so don't be so quick to jump to conclusions.

Thats a quote from the study. (Their conclusion not mine)

[grinch]

Meanwhile, lets build the wall. 33mil/mile!! The art of the deal. WHO needs tests? Thats the states problem

https://www.thedailybeast.com/army-d...build-the-wall

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[SKIP IN7RO]

The amount of 70+ year old people not wearing a mask at the PO, grocery, and gas station kind of bothers me. So much so, that a little part of me hopes they get it. At least I could read some obits with great pleasure or whatever the quote is.

[Deebased]

Thank you for reminding me not to bother posting here.

You added insightful information on how the Bay Area responded which was largely in line from a duration perspective as NYC. Not sure what the issue is...shrug

[garyfromterrace]

You do realize the picture is from Michigan, right? Its not the south.

Yeah, I fucking realise that. Do YOU realise where I fucking live?
And PS you're on ignore, only reason I knew you responded was because someone quoted you. Believe me pal, I'll skip over next time.

That's Michigan.

No shit, really. A state in the US? C'mon benny you read my fucking post right, you know terrace is in BC right? You keep this shit up and I'll go ski Magic again motherfucker.

yeah... just look at the clown car of national security advisors. No surprise they f’ed up pandemic preparedness.

Really seems like there should be some sort of psychological test/eval for anyone running for president:



Trump tweets warnings at governors who are taking his own advice. Imagine that.


In the world according to Donald Trump, he's found his sweet spot: living in his own leadership void, publicly veering from no-responsibility to total-authority (and back again), falsely claiming success on all virus-related matters, blaming any perceived failures on some new (and old) enemies.

It's a new world out there, but it's the same old Trump.

Not BBC but in Idaho and I'm reporting live. Heard there was a rally at the Statehouse so rode my bike the mile over. Didn't get close enough to really capture the quality of people but yeah, plenty of assholes holding Trump signs. Moms with their toddlers walking amongst the crowd with no masks. Old people, fat people, young people, armed people. Stopped long enough to grab a pic and went home. Fuck.

Fuck....

[Deebased]

Maybe somewhere between 50 and 85. It's just one study so don't be so quick to jump to conclusions. These studies are just reporting results and are not intended as the final answer to the question of infection rates. Some of it could be a lack of early test availability, for example.

But if we take the results at face value then it is good news because the COVID-19 IFR is between 0.12-0.2%. Still an order of magnitude higher than flu (0.001-0.01%) but much lower than previously thought.

More interesting still was the U Cambridge study released in PNAS today.

Wuhan strain younger than the US/Euro Strains and less virulent?

Here's a pretty good synopsis https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...er-say-british

[gravitylover]

@skip - It's amazing how many people are ignoring the mask order that went into effect here last night. I went out because we were nearly out of beer and we only saw a few with them on.

Thank you for reminding me not to bother posting here.

Heh

[old goat]

Someone refresh my memory re specific vs nonspecific immunity. My recollection is that people have a degree of immunity to novel pathogens that doesn't depend on the creation of antibodies specific to the pathogen. That's why people with immune deficiency get infections from organisms the rest of us don't, even though we've never been exposed to them in order to make antibodies. Could differences in the degree of nonspecific immunity to coronaviruses (an oxymoron I know) explain differences between countries, regions, states, people in infection rates, severity of infection, etc.

As we hit allergy season in Sacramento--the allergy capital of the world, especially since farm-to-fork capital doesn't apply these days--I am forgoing the nasal steroids and will depend on antihistamines, unless someone tells me different. It seems like I get at least one cold every allergy season, which I attribute to the nasal steroids suppressing the nasal immune system.

[Buster Highmen]

But godamn it, the problems down there are deep and can only get rectified by a change in government. I hope it's not too late.

Unfortunately, our government, Trump included, is only a symptom.

[Mofro261]

Govt regs on labs, govt procurement

and holy fucking shit. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...463v1.full.pdf

First relatively wide spreading testing from the US is in.

It isn't pretty
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...463v1.full.pdf

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...tates-n1185131

Two U.S. companies — Premier Biotech of Minneapolis and Aytu Bioscience of Colorado — have been distributing the tests from unapproved Chinese manufacturers, according to health officials, FDA filings and a spokesman for one of the Chinese manufacturers. Many of the unapproved tests appear to have been shipped to the U.S. after the FDA relaxed its guidelines for tests in mid-March and before the Chinese government banned their export just over two weeks later.

The Santa Clara study used the Chinese tests imported by Premier Biotech.

[The AD]

@skip - It's amazing how many people are ignoring the mask order that went into effect here last night. I went out because we were nearly out of beer and we only saw a few with them on.

Why are people so opposed to wearing a mask? I don't get it.