Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Meadow Skipper]

It ain't over yet guys. My buddy's dad just died from covid complications after battling it for 6 weeks.

Fuck. Sorry.

[jerlane]

An article in the WAPO that purports to show high case rates among the unvaccinated. Which it does, but if you look a wide selection of states what strikes me is that while case rates are significantly higher among the unvaccinated, the curves are uniformly parallel. In cases that had particularly high case rates in the last spike the fall in case rates is as steep as in the vaccinated. Some of this can be explained by the unvaccinated having less exposure to the virus because of the vaccinated and because of some of the unvaccinated have recovered and are mostly protected. In other words--partial herd immunity? Herd immunity doesn't have to be an all or none thing. It seems like a lot of complicated epidemiological math to figure out if that's enough to explain it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ble-main-0430b

Wow, that’s an eye-opening article. That message needs to be spread.

[LongShortLong]

State Department and CDC posted a "do not travel" warning to Japan because there's a "a "high level of COVID-19 was present in the country." The local news also mentioned rising cases in Japan, and risk that even vaccinated individuals could be sickened.
https://thehill.com/policy/internati...-months-before

A quick peek at ourworldindata.org shows Japan's case rates are falling, and are half the level of America's on a per capita basis (and have always been lower). So, by the data, Japan is safer than the US.

So I'm a bit confused that the CDC is telling me it's safe to dump my mask and hang out here in the US, but I shouldn't visit Japan. My take is that CDC is right that travel to Japan is risky. Since the US is twice as risky that also implies CDC's guidance last week is bunk.

[LongShortLong]

Sorry to hear it BB.

OG, my take is the US drop in cases is almost entirely due to behavior changes, and hardly at all due to vaccination. Numerous times during the pandemic various states have demonstrated the capacity to dramatically reduce case rates prior to any vaccines. In the most recent drop, the same pattern occurs - the fastest drop occurs in January when the fewest were vaccinated, slowing in Feb, Mar, Apr as more people got vaccinated. Recently, cases are dropping a bit faster, but still slower than in January. Until the most recent month of data, one could counter-intuitively argue that vaccination was slowing progress against Covid... (I do believe vaccination is helping, but the data show behavior change has much greater influence)

[cat in january]

Yesterday was the first day in Maine masks north mandated for vaccinated. Put a hole in a tire driving south on route 1. Donut on and down the road to a dodge Jeep dealership for a patch.

About a dozen employees on the floor and service. No masks. Good to see folks faces and a bit of a relief after so long. I doubted all had the vaccine and were two weeks post but who knows. Had the impression masks would not fly in that business and felt bad if someone had a family member at home who could not get the vaccine. I have a brother in law who is disabled from a bad case of Guillaine Barre and fears the vaccine could trigger a relapse. His son and daughter-in-law are not getting vaccinated. Don’t understand

[jono]

Sorry to hear it BB.

OG, my take is the US drop in cases is almost entirely due to behavior changes, and hardly at all due to vaccination. Numerous times during the pandemic various states have demonstrated the capacity to dramatically reduce case rates prior to any vaccines. In the most recent drop, the same pattern occurs - the fastest drop occurs in January when the fewest were vaccinated, slowing in Feb, Mar, Apr as more people got vaccinated. Recently, cases are dropping a bit faster, but still slower than in January. Until the most recent month of data, one could counter-intuitively argue that vaccination was slowing progress against Covid... (I do believe vaccination is helping, but the data show behavior change has much greater influence)

The WaPo article linked above makes a compelling case that the outbreaks and continued infection among the unvaccinated population is completely divergent from the numbers in the vaccinated population.

There's a strong clue that this might be the case just looking at deaths: they're down in total, but if you subtract the vaccinated from the total population (since vaccinated deaths have been nearly zero) the per capita progress looks pretty flat.

[old goat]

The WaPo article linked above makes a compelling case that the outbreaks and continued infection among the unvaccinated population is completely divergent from the numbers in the vaccinated population.

There's a strong clue that this might be the case just looking at deaths: they're down in total, but if you subtract the vaccinated from the total population (since vaccinated deaths have been nearly zero) the per capita progress looks pretty flat.

If you look at the numbers of cases and deaths at a single point in time--yes, the unvaccinated are not doing well. But the trajectory of cases is clearly down in state after state and the us as a whole. They were doing worse before and will likely be doing better in the future, I'm not arguing that enough people have been vaccinated, only that even at our modest level of vaccination everyone seems to be benefitting.

Anecdotally I don't see behavior changing from before to after the latest peak.

I do think there may be biological factors that are not understood to explain what's going on. World numbers are starting to go down, and most of the world has had few vaccines.

[The AD]

If you look at the numbers of cases and deaths at a single point in time--yes, the unvaccinated are not doing well. But the trajectory of cases is clearly down in state after state and the us as a whole. They were doing worse before and will likely be doing better in the future, I'm not arguing that enough people have been vaccinated, only that even at our modest level of vaccination everyone seems to be benefitting.

Anecdotally I don't see behavior changing from before to after the latest peak.

Me, either. If anything people are more complacent now than ever.

My hope is that the numbers start to bear out that less vaccinated states continue to suffer from Covid more than the states with a higher percentage of their populations vaccinated. People are entrenched enough that it probably wouldn't make a huge different, but it could prompt some fence sitters to take the vaccine.

And, of course, we've been through this all before where it looks like cases are falling and will continue to fall, but then eventually start going back up. I think with the numbers vaccinated in the U.S. now we won't see that again--certainly not to the extent that we have seen it, but not so sure about other countries.

[summit]

The math is not so hard.

Applying the math to the data and matching case definitions vs sampling bias is hard.

This is from an old epi article...


You can derive that equation from the Q0 and Reff equations for vaccinations.

I just tell people that if you vaccinate 70% of people with the mRNA vaccines you should expect about 1 in 10 to 1 in 5 of your COVID cases to be vaccinated people who didn't seroconvert.

[skaredshtles]

I just tell people that if you vaccinate 70% of people with the mRNA vaccines you should expect about 1 in 10 to 1 in 5 of your COVID cases to be vaccinated people who didn't seroconvert.

Waiting patiently for the morans to start seeing this anecdotally and yelling, "SeE!! TeH VaCCinATionS DoN'T WErk!!!"

Oh, wait - CS has already done this over in the kid COVID thread. Except the vaccination actually KILLED someone, anecdotally.

[XXX-er]

look at worldometer, a whole bunch of people are still dying in the rest of the world which is not vaxed, look at the numbers in mexico, India and Brazil ?

the covid is no where near done so its probably going to keep recirculating the world & killing the unvaxed

[Mofro261]

If you look at the numbers of cases and deaths at a single point in time--yes, the unvaccinated are not doing well. But the trajectory of cases is clearly down in state after state and the us as a whole. They were doing worse before and will likely be doing better in the future, I'm not arguing that enough people have been vaccinated, only that even at our modest level of vaccination everyone seems to be benefitting.


Anecdotally I don't see behavior changing from before to after the latest peak.


I do think there may be biological factors that are not understood to explain what's going on. World numbers are starting to go down, and most of the world has had few vaccines.

Remember the temporal component/ seasonality of outbreaks, be it Influenza, Norovirus, Rhinovirus or airborne transmission of Sars-Cov-2. They naturally wax and wane largely through behavioral changes (less people indoors congregating, etc) as temperature and weather improve.

Most countries have seen 3 waves of infection increase and then decrease now in the absence of much vaccination, and not all countries (or states in the US) are peaking at the same time. Ie India's first case rate explosion was Aug-October when it looked like they might overtake the US for most infections, then things died down in India but exploded again in the US Oct-Jan before beginning the decline in Feb, right as things really started to explode again in India.

Going forward the US will likely have another round of infections starting in the fall, but the number of people vaccinated should help lower both the peak and the valley for infections, hosptalizations, and deaths.

[jono]

If you look at the numbers of cases and deaths at a single point in time--yes, the unvaccinated are not doing well. But the trajectory of cases is clearly down in state after state and the us as a whole. They were doing worse before and will likely be doing better in the future, I'm not arguing that enough people have been vaccinated, only that even at our modest level of vaccination everyone seems to be benefitting.

Anecdotally I don't see behavior changing from before to after the latest peak.

I do think there may be biological factors that are not understood to explain what's going on. World numbers are starting to go down, and most of the world has had few vaccines.

Case numbers here in the epicenter of the anti-science redoubt have been steady to up just lately. It's a very small sample of a small state, though, so I doubt it shows up in bigger data sets. A month ago these 5 sparsely populated counties were roughly matching the state of Hawaii for new cases and in the last few days we outpaced them almost 3:1. Mostly as HI has gone down, fortunately, but the divergence is stark. I think your assessment that nationally we're seeing R0 fall off with vaccination is correct--and the fact that places with lower vax rates are still hot spots just reinforces that.

Worldwide behavior should be helping: fear and hope based motivation should both be near peaks, given vaccination data and case rates. It would be hard to imagine that not having some positive effect.

[Mofro261]

I just tell people that if you vaccinate 70% of people with the mRNA vaccines you should expect about 1 in 10 to 1 in 5 of your COVID cases to be vaccinated people who didn't seroconvert.

Don't think it's that high, maybe 1/5-1/10 are not reaching a level that prevents infection, but it is more likely 1/10-1/20 for becoming a disease case. Now the J&J however, yeah maybe 1/5-1/3?

Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8

[KQ]

JFC they sure aren't interested in testing people anymore.

Tried to go in but evidently you need an appt now and are required to meet with a doc (this is not indicated on the site when you look up where to go for tests).

Receptionist person asked why I thought I needed a Covid test in a most surly manner and was generally rude. Needless to say I left without a test.

Whole thing was exhausting and burned up what little energy I had. I feel worse for having tried.

[summit]

Not like that here... 3 places in the county to get tested for free, no appointment...

It will remain that way as long as .gov wants to pay for the lab tests...

[old goat]

The math is not so hard.

Applying the math to the data and matching case definitions vs sampling bias is hard.

This is from an old epi article...


You can derive that equation from the Q0 and Reff equations for vaccinations.

I just tell people that if you vaccinate 70% of people with the mRNA vaccines you should expect about 1 in 10 to 1 in 5 of your COVID cases to be vaccinated people who didn't seroconvert.

Like I said, the math is hard.

[ill-advised strategy]

Edit--I misread the graphs..

[jono]

JFC they sure aren't interested in testing people anymore.

Tried to go in but evidently you need an appt now and are required to meet with a doc (this is not indicated on the site when you look up where to go for tests).

Receptionist person asked why I thought I needed a Covid test in a most surly manner and was generally rude. Needless to say I left without a test.

Whole thing was exhausting and burned up what little energy I had. I feel worse for having tried.

Sorry to hear that, KQ. If you work up the energy to try this again, the Walgreen's drive through (with an appointment) should mean no need to leave the car. Rapid antigen test appts available at the Walla Walla Walgreen's:

https://www.walgreens.com/findcare/c...stingpg_travel

Get well!

[KQ]

Sorry to hear that, KQ. If you work up the energy to try this again, the Walgreen's drive through (with an appointment) should mean no need to leave the car. Rapid antigen test appts available at the Walla Walla Walgreen's:

https://www.walgreens.com/findcare/c...stingpg_travel

Get well!

Thank you.

I'm usually so good at these things but not really focusing at the moment. When I looked at the available testing locations and saw Providence I thought "great, I'm familiar with the location, it's easy to get to, no appointement necessary, I'll go there." Only to be informed when I got there that I had to have an appointment and was required to meet with a doctor "no more swab and go" said the surly receptionist. I don't have an issue meeting with a doc just seems kinda weird.

Have an appt at Walgreens for tomorrow.

[jono]

No problem. That was so easy when we did it (and free, vs. Costco's mail-in at ~$130) that I wouldn't be surprised if the drive-up options are forcing doc in the box and every other business model out. Maybe they need to charge an appt to break even?

[galibier_numero_un]

Hang I there, KQ. on a related note, it seems as if the US doesn't have the monopoly on crazy:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...droidApp_Other

A Canadian soldier is facing rare mutiny charges after allegedly urging fellow members of the armed forces not to help with the distribution of Covid-19 vaccines.

The Department of National Defence has announced charges against officer cadet Ladislas Kenderesi, a reservist in Ontario. Kenderesi has been charged with “endeavoring to persuade another person to join in a mutiny” and “behaving in a scandalous manner unbecoming of an officer”, according to officials.

The charge of mutiny is rare in Canada and has not been used in decades.

... Thom

[BobMc]

Walmart has 15 minute at home tests, comes two tests in a box for $20.

[bennymac]

Hang I there, KQ. on a related note, it seems as if the US doesn't have the monopoly on crazy:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...droidApp_Other

... Thom

That military court justice is nothing to fuck around with - as this person is about to find out

[XXX-er]

Not that it would matter cuz mutiny is mutiny but fast forward 6 months and besides being a dumb ass he ^^ was completely wrong