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  1. #19901
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    ^ Spot on, the rojo and deebz deliberate strategy plainly stated is to “Flood the zone with shit.”


    On the off chance anyone cares: in response to Deebs post above, he purposely left out the previous sentence in the quote to remove context because the sentence Deeb left out clearly states that there are asymptomatic cases.

    This was all in response to deeb saying at the time 80% (not the 50% number he's claiming in the post above) were asymptomatic.

    And then later as more serosurveys became available I wrote the asymptotic rate was around 40%.



    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    So comparing asymptomatic COVID-19 with symptomatic flu doesn't make sense when there haven't been any serosurveys or serial viral shedding studies for COVID-19. Maybe most of the COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic or maybe asymptomatic numbers are false positives because tests can also pick up people who have been in contact with an infected person.
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Your [deeb's] number are made up. Not only does your source not say there's only a 20% symptomatic rate, but undocumented and mild is not the same thing as asymptomatic which you've attempted to lump together into your "asymptomatic" category.
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    If you aggregate the studies they start to bring the picture into focus. An infection fatality rate somewhere between 0.3% and 1% but with staggering differences by age group and comorbidities, an asymptotic rate somewhere around 40%, and absent control measure an R0 somewhere between 2.5 and 5.7.
    Last edited by MultiVerse; 05-31-2020 at 11:10 PM.

  2. #19902
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    Pig wrestling, lots and lots of pig wrestling.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "I'd eat a bag of Dicks and wash it down with a Coke any day." - iceman

  3. #19903
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    Pig wrestling, lots and lots of pig wrestling.
    The pig's name is Hugh.
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  4. #19904
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    Rasputin is online now Полые тростник на ветру
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    He who reproveth a scorner getteth to himself shame...... PV 9:7
    I form the light, and create darkness: I make peace, and create evil: I the LORD do all these things. -אלוהים אדירים

  5. #19905
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    Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

    Interesting. I wonder if we’ll see cases decline over time and the severity of the cases will keep going down? Apparently something similar happened with SARS until it went away.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKBN2370OQ

  6. #19906
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    Quote Originally Posted by funkendrenchman View Post
    Interesting. I wonder if we’ll see cases continue to remain steady for awhile but the severity of the cases will keep going down? Apparently something similar happened with SARS until it went away.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKBN2370OQ
    Fingers crossed.

  7. #19907
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    Quote Originally Posted by definitely not ronald johnson View Post
    Depends where the money to pay for it comes from. If it's coming from SS and Medicare then it's a negative. If it comes from savings then it's a positive, but when you die those savings are just passed on to the heirs who use those savings in other productive ways.
    What kind of society do we want to have? Should we just bring everyone in the forest naked at 75 and leave them to die for maximum efficiency? Not to mention that the system was designed to have people pay into the safety net so they could harness some gains and be comfortable in old age. The problem with the boomers isn't that there are so many of them, it's that they've worked so hard to defund and break these social programs for 40 years with success no matter who is in the OO.

    Further, the idea that inherited wealth is productive goes against a centuries of american thought and destroys social mobility. there is no reason we need a protected aristocratic class of people with 20 generational wealth. this directly causes the societal unrest we are seeing now. People should be able to leave money to heirs but for a long time we agreed as a society on what a fair number was and how to tax above that but that same wealthiest class has been assaulting these norms since the 90s as a death tax with major success under one party.

    Quote Originally Posted by definitely not ronald johnson View Post
    You think job creators are negatives??
    the myth of job creators is. How many more jobs have bezos and the waltons destroyed than created (in this country)?

    When combined with supercharged policy to funnel more wealth to these people it's exacerbated further, since they are now richer and even more important job creators! The system is broker than we are and the coronavirus response is just like the social unrest, the result of a complete failure of leadership and the social contract in our country.

    Seems like some people are ok with it because they aren't old, have gates around their neighborhood, etc...
    They got a name for the winners in the world

    http://procatinator.com/?cat=80

  8. #19908
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    Quote Originally Posted by funkendrenchman View Post
    Interesting. I wonder if we’ll see cases decline over time and the severity of the cases will keep going down? Apparently something similar happened with SARS until it went away.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKBN2370OQ
    Tell this to the people currently dying. While this could happen, and has happened before, the more likely, and common scenario is a dip in the summer and a resurgence in the fall. Eventually it will find a background level and just smolder through the population, but when is still the big question. Let's hope it is sooner rather then later.

    I agree it is a constitutional right for Americans to be assholes...its just too bad that so many take the opportunity...
    iscariot

  9. #19909
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    ^ Spot on, the rojo and deebz deliberate strategy plainly stated is to “Flood the zone with shit.”


    On the off chance anyone cares: in response to Deebs post above, he purposely left out the previous sentence in the quote to remove context because the sentence Deeb left out clearly states that there are asymptomatic cases.

    This was all in response to deeb saying at the time 80% (not the 50% number he's claiming in the post above) were asymptomatic.

    And then later as more serosurveys became available I wrote the asymptotic rate was around 40%.
    So you moved from 0 to 40. Halfway there bud. A few more weeks and we'll be able to laugh at your 60-70% of population required for herd immunity.

  10. #19910
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    Deebz attempting to turn the absence of evidence into a man bites dog story. A half-witted jellyfish could make a better point.


    At the time Mofro, iceman, and others had good laugh at deebs obviously fake 80% asymptomatic rate. And yeah the quotes don't lie but deebz clearly does.

  11. #19911
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Deebz attempting to turn the absence of evidence into a man bites dog story. A half-witted jellyfish could make a better point
    Quotes don't lie and you're migrating camps. 8 weeks late is still better than never.

  12. #19912
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    Researchers at the University of Maryland School of Medicine have developed an experimental COIVD-19 test that uses nanoparticles to detect if coronavirus is present in saliva or a nasal swab sample, revealing the results in about 10 minutes through a change in the color of the test liquid, they report in the journal ACS Nano.

    "Based on our preliminary results, we believe this promising new test may detect RNA material from the virus as early as the first day of infection," lead researcher Dipanjan Pan said in a statement, noting that additional studies are need to confirm the results. "Many of the diagnostic tests currently on the market cannot detect the virus until several days after infection. For this reason, they have a significant rate of false negative results." If RNA material specific to the new coronavirus is present in the sample, the gold nanoparticles turn the purple test reagent blue.
    Preliminary but still cool.

  13. #19913
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    Quote Originally Posted by frorider View Post
    Preliminary but still cool.
    Hell yes. This is the kind of thing we need to move back toward normal. Well, that and good pressure at the hydrants, I guess.

  14. #19914
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    Quote Originally Posted by funkendrenchman View Post
    Interesting. I wonder if we’ll see cases decline over time and the severity of the cases will keep going down? Apparently something similar happened with SARS until it went away.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKBN2370OQ
    The doctors quoted describe changes in presentation of COVID-19 using terms that imply changes in SARS-Cov-2, but the two things are distinct. A change to the virus should be detectable genetically, but there are a lot of factors that would change the average presentation of the disease without any change to the genetics of the virus.

    A change to the virus would be more convenient, but less severe infections could also be evidence of lower viral loads at transmission, quicker average detection, more social distancing among the most vulnerable--or many other factors tied to behavioral changes. And/or a change in the population itself. Point being, a change to the virus would "just happen" without human actions, but all other explanations imply that something is working.

  15. #19915
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    Quote Originally Posted by ml242 View Post
    What kind of society do we want to have? Should we just bring everyone in the forest naked at 75 and leave them to die for maximum efficiency? Not to mention that the system was designed to have people pay into the safety net so they could harness some gains and be comfortable in old age. The problem with the boomers isn't that there are so many of them, it's that they've worked so hard to defund and break these social programs for 40 years with success no matter who is in the OO.

    Further, the idea that inherited wealth is productive goes against a centuries of american thought and destroys social mobility. there is no reason we need a protected aristocratic class of people with 20 generational wealth. this directly causes the societal unrest we are seeing now. People should be able to leave money to heirs but for a long time we agreed as a society on what a fair number was and how to tax above that but that same wealthiest class has been assaulting these norms since the 90s as a death tax with major success under one party.
    Totally OT, has nothing to do with my argument.

    No point getting into a big argument on inheritances, but it's a fallacy to think the state will make better use of that money than the heirs.

    the myth of job creators is. How many more jobs have bezos and the waltons destroyed than created (in this country)?

    When combined with supercharged policy to funnel more wealth to these people it's exacerbated further, since they are now richer and even more important job creators! The system is broker than we are and the coronavirus response is just like the social unrest, the result of a complete failure of leadership and the social contract in our country.

    Seems like some people are ok with it because they aren't old, have gates around their neighborhood, etc...
    You are ignoring the increased standard of life that Amazon provides. Being able to have virtually any product at your doorstep in two days is pretty nice. By your line of thinking, the tractor must have been a terrible invention because it put so many farmers out of work.

    Agree on bailouts.

  16. #19916
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    The doctors quoted describe changes in presentation of COVID-19 using terms that imply changes in SARS-Cov-2, but the two things are distinct. A change to the virus should be detectable genetically, but there are a lot of factors that would change the average presentation of the disease without any change to the genetics of the virus.

    A change to the virus would be more convenient, but less severe infections could also be evidence of lower viral loads at transmission, quicker average detection, more social distancing among the most vulnerable--or many other factors tied to behavioral changes. And/or a change in the population itself. Point being, a change to the virus would "just happen" without human actions, but all other explanations imply that something is working.
    I think I get what you're saying. Reading the article, it's tough to to tell if they're talking about less severe infections or a change to the virus.

    I missed this when it came out, but a month ago there was some evidence of the virus mutating to weaker forms, like it did with SARS. https://asunow.asu.edu/20200505-asu-...onavirus-study

  17. #19917
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    Quote Originally Posted by funkendrenchman View Post
    Interesting. I wonder if we’ll see cases decline over time and the severity of the cases will keep going down? Apparently something similar happened with SARS until it went away.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile..../idUSKBN2370OQ
    Is it the virus that's changed or people's behaviors so that when exposure does occur the viral dose is much lower? If it's the latter then we'll obviously see a spike when things open up. And don't expect a spike to necessarily occur within a week or two--evidence from California and NY that the virus was circulating in the community for quite a while before cases starting popping up.
    A third explanation is that only a fraction of the population is susceptible and the virus has run out of victims. No proof of this theory yet, and this has been going on long enough that I would think if there were genetic differences in susceptibility we would know that. But I keep hoping.

  18. #19918
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    Quote Originally Posted by ml242 View Post
    What kind of society do we want to have? Should we just bring everyone in the forest naked at 75 and leave them to die for maximum efficiency?
    Not naked, for crying aloud.
    We are not animals.
    They can wear their loafers.

    The floggings will continue until morale improves.

  19. #19919
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    Quote Originally Posted by ron johnson View Post
    Totally OT, has nothing to do with my argument.

    No point getting into a big argument on inheritances, but it's a fallacy to think the state will make better use of that money than the heirs.



    You are ignoring the increased standard of life that Amazon provides. Being able to have virtually any product at your doorstep in two days is pretty nice. By your line of thinking, the tractor must have been a terrible invention because it put so many farmers out of work.

    Agree on bailouts.
    except it ain't really a better tractor its just all the $$ going into one persons pockets
    Lee Lau - xxx-er is the laziest Asian canuck I know

  20. #19920
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    Is it the virus that's changed or people's behaviors so that when exposure does occur the viral dose is much lower? If it's the latter then we'll obviously see a spike when things open up. And don't expect a spike to necessarily occur within a week or two--evidence from California and NY that the virus was circulating in the community for quite a while before cases starting popping up.
    A third explanation is that only a fraction of the population is susceptible and the virus has run out of victims. No proof of this theory yet, and this has been going on long enough that I would think if there were genetic differences in susceptibility we would know that. But I keep hoping.
    Cases in CA going up again, so no, it did not run out of victims. Social distancing and quarantine kept it at bay.

  21. #19921
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    Quote Originally Posted by funkendrenchman View Post
    I think I get what you're saying. Reading the article, it's tough to to tell if they're talking about less severe infections or a change to the virus.
    Yeah, I think translation might make it hard to tell what they actually think the cause is. And I'm certainly not trying to discredit anyone. The article just seems to state it in a way that implies more than what you'd expect clinicians to know directly (and of course that/they could be right, too, direct knowledge or not). Regardless, they're reporting good news, what's unclear is what is the actionable takeaway?

  22. #19922
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    Is it the virus that's changed or people's behaviors so that when exposure does occur the viral dose is much lower?
    Currently there's no way to quantify what the threshold is but a higher dose is clearly worse. The number of infected people matters, proximity matters, timing matters, and aiflow whether indoors or out, whether fresh air is brought in or stagnant air is recirculating.

    People avoiding indoor crowds, wearing masks, washing hands, staying home when sick and so on might make the difference when it comes to dosage in Italy after the virus was brought under a semblance of control.

    Whereas in take it on the chin Brazil poor workers are compelled to keep working, people are crowded together not wearing masks leading to a greater share of the population exposed to the virus at a higher dose. Dosage along with higher pollution levels and less access to health care could explain why coronavirus deaths are skewing younger in eveloping countries.

  23. #19923
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Currently there's no way to quantify what the threshold is but a higher dose is clearly worse.
    It seems like if we know the above for certain then we know that at least on a statistical basis reducing the amount of exposure helps. Right?

  24. #19924
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    Yeah, that's the best educated guess. Exposure to high doses would explain why young healthy health care workers died from the virus. The problem, statistically speaking, is it's difficult to test the theory in humans and there's little correlation with subsequent viral loads because there's so much variation when it comes to things like cellular receptors and overall individual health.

    In the hamster study discussed earlier the subset of masked hamsters who became infected, presumably receiving a lower dose than unmasked hamsters, had less severe disease indicators.

  25. #19925
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    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Yeah, that's the best educated guess. Exposure to high doses would explain why young healthy health care workers died from the virus. The problem, statistically speaking, is it's difficult to test the theory in humans and there's little correlation with subsequent viral loads because there's so much variation when it comes to things like cellular receptors and overall individual health.

    In the hamster study discussed earlier masked hamsters who became infected had less severe infections.
    If we are able to to reduce the amount of viral load in each transmission (through distancing, masks, etc), in theory we should see less severe cases. I wonder if this has a chain effect and eventually leads to the virus petering out...eventually becoming something more flu-like in severity. (wishful thinking)

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