Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Mofro261]

So like ten people have already posted about Sweden's claim of Stockholm reaching herd immunity in a few weeks. The head Swedish epidemiologist made the claim and cited a study by the Swedish Health agency saying for every 1 person confirmed positive the true number of infected is 999. Then, within 24 hours, the study was pulled citing an unknown error. What the fuck? And we thought Trump was incompetent. I have scoured the Internets for more info on this but no luck. Does anyone speak Swedish?

Problem was 1:999 meant that with 16,000 confirmed infections that 16,000,000 Swedes should have been infected in a country of 10,000,000. So....

[MagnificentUnicorn]

My current opinion is that although I don't agree with the protesters, I do think that we need a little pushback to encourage the govt to start thinking about how and when to begin working toward reopening things. Especially in places that have met certain qualifications like infection and death rate slowdowns, and testing requirements. We'll see how that all goes in Eagle county as they are the first in our state to try.

What makes you think that people in charge of government, public health, healthcare and business aren’t making plans about how and when to start getting back to normal?


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[Boissal]

If you're going to post something like that post the source.

You probably will appreciate this article re: mutation rate & loci and the implications on vaccine de
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...he-coronavirus

[splat]

Mofro - what the latest on your end? Weren't you working on a test?

[Mazderati]

Convoluted situations create convoluted data but remdesivir may not be a viable treatment for covid19.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/...irus-patients/

[RockinB]

Here's some exposure math. Your situation might vary.

Attachment 326207

I understand the exposure risk, but the math only works when we have actual numbers of confirmed cases to base them off of. Testing in Montana is completely fucked. That is well known and recognized. It seems irresponsible to be making a decision to open thing back up without a semblance of the actual number of cases.

Maybe I’m being more nervous than I should be, it just seems like a smart move to hold off until we have our ducks in row concerning testing. At work we have been talking a lot about risk informed decisions, worthy conversations, but in order for them to be effective the ‘informed’ part needs to be there. Without it, it’s just a risky decision. This is when we need to rely on science/fact and not just a gut feeling.

[The SnowShow]

I understand the exposure risk, but the math only works when we have actual numbers of confirmed cases to base them off of. Testing in Montana is completely fucked. That is well known and recognized. It seems irresponsible to be making a decision to open thing back up without a semblance of the actual number of cases.

Maybe I’m being more nervous than I should be, it just seems like a smart move to hold off until we have our ducks in row concerning testing. At work we have been talking a lot about risk informed decisions, worthy conversations, but in order for them to be effective the ‘informed’ part needs to be there. Without it, it’s just a risky decision. This is when we need to rely on science/fact and not just a gut feeling.

That’s how I feel about CO.

[Viva]

Pulmonary vein thrombosis? I had to look that one up. I don't know.

An old friend from OHSU is a clotting expert. I learned about PVT when he filed an invention disclosure. We didn't do anything with it, as it was a rare condition, but I remember the numerous microclots, organ hypoxia, etc...

[Name Redacted]

What makes you think that people in charge of government, public health, healthcare and business aren’t making plans about how and when to start getting back to normal?


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Never mentioned anyone other than the government in my post, sorry you read it that way.

[snowaddict91]

Here in Utah, we have pretty good testing capacity relative to our population, but I still feel like we don't have enough information to make informed decisions. I think we could in a few weeks, but IgG testing is just barely getting off the ground here. May will be an ugly month.

[TNKen]

Tennessee--Last to close, first to re-open!!

[single]

Too much chance of strangers exchanging spit after 11:30, I guess...

11:30 is basically the 8:30 anyway

[Benny Profane]

Bye bye Bozeman.

[altasnob]

Problem was 1:999 meant that with 16,000 confirmed infections that 16,000,000 Swedes should have been infected in a country of 10,000,000. So....

Not doubting what Mofro says but it really is this simple of a mistake? One that a 4th grader could have pointed out. Head Swedish epidemiologist makes a groundbreaking statement that gets picked up by conservative media worldwide to support the "it's just the flu" and open things up argument. Think if Fauci said NYC is approaching herd immunity in a few weeks and then came back and said, my bad, we forgot to carry the one. Perpetuates the lack of faith in science and expertise. Maybe more English articles will come out on this in the next week that further explains their f up.

[Core Shot]

I'm not a scientist and I don't know the answer to your specific question but I do know that even if an antibody test is highly sensitive and specific we don't know if people with antibodies are protected from reinfection and if so for how long.

I don’t buy that argument. But I hear it a lot.

You might get reinfected
The virus might mutate.

In either event, should it happen, I think it’s comforting to know you kicked this things ass already. Something about your genes or biome or immune response was favorable.
It should be similarly ass kicking in the future.
No guarantees, but better odds than never having been exposed.

[Bunion 2020]

I understand the exposure risk, but the math only works when we have actual numbers of confirmed cases to base them off of. Testing in Montana is completely fucked. That is well known and recognized. It seems irresponsible to be making a decision to open thing back up without a semblance of the actual number of cases.

Maybe I’m being more nervous than I should be, it just seems like a smart move to hold off until we have our ducks in row concerning testing. At work we have been talking a lot about risk informed decisions, worthy conversations, but in order for them to be effective the ‘informed’ part needs to be there. Without it, it’s just a risky decision. This is when we need to rely on science/fact and not just a gut feeling.

I like Bullock and will support him for his Senate bid. But that decision is meant to tamp down any further demonstrations and mollify those who think that somehow Montana will be different.

The folks I know in F&B are not psyched and those establishments that can are planning to hold off on re-openings until mid-May at the earliest.

Hedging their bets to see what happens in places like TN and GA I suppose.

[The AD]

I don’t buy that argument. But I hear it a lot.

You might get reinfected
The virus might mutate.

In either event, should it happen, I think it’s comforting to know you kicked this things ass already. Something about your genes or biome or immune response was favorable.
It should be similarly ass kicking in the future.
No guarantees, but better odds than never having been exposed.

Yes, but it could still make you a carrier who could spread the virus to others. That's the big concern.

[huckbucket]

I don’t buy that argument. But I hear it a lot.

You might get reinfected
The virus might mutate.

In either event, should it happen, I think it’s comforting to know you kicked this things ass already. Something about your genes or biome or immune response was favorable.
It should be similarly ass kicking in the future.
No guarantees, but better odds than never having been exposed.

Mutations can substantially change virulence.

[gretch6364]

Yes it is Fox News, but still a good story of people coming together during the crisis:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/pennsylva...tive-equipment

I wouldn't want to be away from my family and living at work for 28 days. Good on them for doing it and trying to help.

[cat in january]

At his daily press briefing in Albany Thursday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the results of a preliminary study conducted to determine the COVID-19 infection rate in the state. Cuomo said that out of 3,000 people who were tested for coronavirus antibodies, 13.9 percent were positive. In New York City, more than 21 percent tested positive.

The governor stressed that more testing would be needed to confirm the actual infection rate, and noted that the tests were conducted at grocery stores and shopping centers, meaning they were out of the home and likely did not believe they were infected or at risk.

He said that the results, which show there were far more cases than previously thought, also suggest the fatality rate is likely lower than expected. But Cuomo also said that the state's official death toll, which stands at more than 15,000, does not include at-home deaths, which will ultimately increase the overall fatality rate.


If those numbers stand up that seems like some good news.

[huckbucket]

At his daily press briefing in Albany Thursday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the results of a preliminary study conducted to determine the COVID-19 infection rate in the state. Cuomo said that out of 3,000 people who were tested for coronavirus antibodies, 13.9 percent were positive. In New York City, more than 21 percent tested positive.

The governor stressed that more testing would be needed to confirm the actual infection rate, and noted that the tests were conducted at grocery stores and shopping centers, meaning they were out of the home and likely did not believe they were infected or at risk.

He said that the results, which show there were far more cases than previously thought, also suggest the fatality rate is likely lower than expected. But Cuomo also said that the state's official death toll, which stands at more than 15,000, does not include at-home deaths, which will ultimately increase the overall fatality rate.


If those numbers stand up that seems like some good news.

Depends on where they tested.



Based on 21.2% in NYC testing positive, this implies 1.78 million people are/were infected! The data has yet to be provided though.

Also still puts the CFR between 0.5% and 1%

[Lone Star]

^^ not promising for Georgia, Tennessee, et al

[glademaster]

Better not head back to Tennessee, Jed.

[Adolf Allerbush]

^^ not promising for Georgia, Tennessee, et al

Better not head back to Tennessee, Jed.

538 had a good discussion of the UW model, which seems to be the basis for some states loosening up their restrictions: https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/h...l-of-covid-19/

UW basing it off of death rates, which seems like a smart move since we don't have an accurate assessment of how many are infected. That said, it seems like it's still a huge gamble for GA and TN to go back to business as usual at this point, but maybe they're banking on the hotter temps to also help out?

[The AD]

UW basing it off of death rates, which seems like a smart move since we don't have an accurate assessment of how many are infected. That said, it seems like it's still a huge gamble for GA and TN to go back to business as usual at this point, but maybe they're banking on the hotter temps to also help out?

I think their strategy is that "thoughts and prayers" are going to help. That's seems to be the usual go-to.