Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[bodywhomper]

Also the numbers in California aren't as bad right now as either Florida or Arizona. California's highest daily number is 6,419 new cases from a population of 39.5 million. Arizona's is 3,630 from 7.3 million, and Florida's is 5,511 from 21 million. I think people forget just how populous California is.

FL = 9,000 new cases today

[bodywhomper]

Masks make sense. Delusional raving is just delusional raving.

Speaking of which, the righteous hippies of moontribe will be conducting the next moon tribe gathering (next weekend) as a virtual party.

[SkiBall]

Attachment 332728

A lot of deaths are occurring around day 20. If death line continues to decrease, maybe we can worry a little less.
I am very skeptical that will be the case. I see dead people.

[goldenboy]

there are still going to be lots of people who are very seriously ill and may never recover.

So much talk about deaths, but fuck getting this thing no matter how young and healthy you are. I know 20-somethings here that got it in mid March that still can't taste or smell anything and still don't feel "right".

[old goat]

I am sick and tired of vocal and occasionally armed bullies (including LE) intimidating authorities into watering down restrictions that most Americans agree with. If people won't wear masks ticket them--impose fines and community service. Business that don't comply should be shut down. If LE won't ticket them, find LE that will--there seems to be a large supply of Karens who could be put to productive use. Nobody needs to go to jail, but if you have too many unpaid tickets you might wind up there. Obviously voluntary compliance isn't working. We can sit at our computers and make fun of all the idiots but it isn't making us any safer or the economy any closer to recovering.

[KQ]

^this.

It is not binary. There is a lot going on between mild and death. We still don't know how this is going to play out later in life. Maybe it won't have lasting effects but maybe it will be like rheumatic fever that my father had when he was 12 and killed him when he was 56 due to lasting heart damage.

[bodywhomper]

In the US, what defines “recover?” Is it defined by the Fed gov, states, or county/parish/etc.? Is it that consecutive negative testing over a few days metric that was being previously used a few months ago?

[k2skier112]

Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force response coordinator, believes some official COVID-19 statistics like death tolls may be inflated by up to 25%

You just lost all credibility quoting a shill hired by Trump
Your conspiracy theories are get stooped shit posts like this put on ignore. You're a very loyal Fox puppet

[alias_rice]

In the US, what defines “recover?” Is it defined by the Fed gov, states, or county/parish/etc.? Is it that consecutive negative testing over a few days metric that was being previously used a few months ago?

In Utah it means 21 days since your positive test. Assuming you’re alive.

Which is interesting because the health department released you from isolation 10 days after testing positive as long as the lady 3 days are symptom free.

[frorider]

White House coronavirus task force response coordinator

Lotta oxymoronic content in there.

Btw why is core shot repeating all his schtick from earlier in this thread ? Borrrring.

[neufox47]

Attachment 332728

You think that graph helps your argument? Deaths lag tests by a good two to three weeks and the tracking of deaths lags the tests by 5 days. All that graph is showing is to expect deaths will shoot up over the next two weeks unless the prior correlation become uncoupled. The divergence off the peak is likely due to an increase in testing. But testing has not suddenly increased dramatically.

Unless the virus is significantly less deadly in the summer or a significantly different population is being infected, or something else significant just happened / changed deaths are about to skyrocket.

[Tri-Ungulate]

Just catching up on the past day's posts...

When antibodies are derived from plasma is that concentration the biggest factor in healing/immunity response? What effect would a direct blood transfusion from someone who, say, had detectable antibodies and the same blood type as a non-infected person who receives the transfusion, have with regard to forming an immunity?

If you're asking whether convalescent plasma used to treat active infection creates immunity, the answer is "possibly" although this has yet to be demonstrated AFAIK. Plasma contains B-cells (in addition to the antibodies themselves) from the donor. If the donor has established a memory response (which as you've seen in the news is not a foregone conclusion for recovered patients), then those B-cells should take up residence and continue to make anti-viral antibodies. However, in the cases where plasma donation is thought to be effective, no one knows if the response is mediated by the antibodies in the plasma or the B-cells that produce more once there.

Again, I'm not an immunologist.

@splat: Yeah, we've been part of convalescent plasma trials since March or so, and from our low numbers it's looking encouraging, but perhaps there is a degree of hit-and-miss as would be expected. Convalescent plasma (blood products with antibodies derived from patients who have been exposed to SARS CoV 2) would seem to be an ideal renewable resource to treat very sick patients, and it seems this might be the case. The difficulty is that there is so much variability between the donors (in terms of SARS CoV 2 antibody quality and quantity, there really is no way to tell either) as well as the recipients (in terms of how sick they are and how likely they are to respond), that it makes it challenging to draw firm conclusions as to whether it's actually effective, until the larger dataset (derived from our service as well as all the other participating institutions) is collated and analyzed. As far as your question regarding a "direct blood transfusion", sure, it may have a similar effect, but we really don't think the additional products in a "whole" transfusion, including red blood cells etc, have as much importance as the antibodies present in plasma (blood with the red cells taken out).

@huckbucket: Plasma from the blood bank usually does NOT contain B-cells, at least most of them are filtered out. So what the recipient is getting is mostly proteins, including antibodies, which we think are key mediators of immune defence, but I always think of them as "tools" rather than "effectors".

Wear your damn masks. Stay away from people. Tell your public health officials to contact trace. Let's seriously try to beat this without a lockdown.

But muh freedumbs!!!!! God hates you.

He knows he likes the guns. All else is secondary. Making people wear masks is somewhere along a continuum of government control that ends up with them taking his guns away, so they're bad.

Thing is that I sincerely doubt that jgb is suddenly a public health epidemiologist savant, able to pull pubmed articles out of thin air to support his ignrnt stance - he's getting fed this shit by a personalized cadre of social media FUD-bots.

[bodywhomper]

In Utah it means 21 days since your positive test. Assuming you’re alive.

Which is interesting because the health department released you from isolation 10 days after testing positive as long as the lady 3 days are symptom free.

Thanks. That is pretty weird.

What’s the status update with your family and quarantine/isolation?

[splat]

[climberevan]

I am sick and tired of vocal and occasionally armed bullies (including LE) intimidating authorities into watering down restrictions that most Americans agree with.

Here in Douglas County Nevada, following Sisolak's order mandating mask use, our Sheriff's department issued its own statement saying that they will not be enforcing the order. Basically they said there was too much risk of backlash.

I just wish the idiots and misanthropes would cluster together and not interact with the rest of us for a few months so that they can bear the brunt of this thing. It seems that they don't feel they owe anything to society anyway, so the experiment would be a good test of that as well.

[nest]

Point of clarification Lego. Somatic hypermutation drives affinity maturation of an antibody leading to an increase in target recognition, not an increase antibody diversity, as the end product of somatic hypermutation results in the selection of the best possible of many potential combinations for a single epitope. Antibody diversity is based on germ line encoded VDJ recombination and pairing of Ab heavy and light chains to provide a diverse repitoire of antibodies able to sample many different epitopes at lower affinity that then undergo the process of affinity maturation.

There are many potential epitopes within a virus/pathogen and it's protein sequences, but not all of them lead to productive elimination of the virus. Only those Ab's that bind in a manner that either blocks the binding surface of the virus, or bind to restrict conformational changes needed for the virus to gain entry into a cell, will be neutralizing. This is the combination to the lock. Clonal expansion will result in the rapid expansion of b cells producing antibodies upon the re-introduction of antigen epitopes, regardless of whether they will have neutralizing function or not.

Within a given Ab response to infection, a small % (~5%) of Ab's may have some neutralizing ability, many Ab's can bind pathogen epitopes that do not contribute to prevention of entry into a cell, and some may actually exacerbate disease by promoting viral update into a cell where it can then replicate (antibody dependent enhancement). All of these may lead memory b-cell retention and undergo clonal expansion upon re-introduction of antigen.

Antibody Cross reactivity occurs when the "epitope" footprint of an antibody is similar enough between different organisms that it will bind to both, but often with variance in the affinity. IE the SARS-1 neutralizing Mab CR3022 is cross reactive with SARS-2 as the epitope shares 24 of 28 contact residues with SARS-2, but it is not neutralizing because it does so with 100-fold lower affinity, and also binds in a location on SARS-2 Spike that doesn't involve the primary receptor binding motif that interacts with ACE-2. Despite relatively high sequence homology ~70%, there are almost no-cross neutralizating Ab's generated from SARS-1 infection to SARS-2 but there are good deal of non-neutralizing Ab's that will cross-react.

The holy grail is finding cross-reactive Neutralizing antibodies that would prevent infection/reinfection with other viruses. These are rare as the viral sequences/epitopes that are similar to each other are most often in regions that are not accessible on the surface of the virus meaning they must be taken up by a cell and processed in order for those regions to be recognized, or bind to epitopes that are away interfaces the would block viral entry. Likewise, pathogens always fight back, some by rapid mutation of proteins on their surface to lead to escape (flu etc), some by shuffling the proteins found on the viral surface (Lyme, Malaria), some by molecular mimicry of host proteins, many by directly down regulating both innate and cell mediated responses that would contribute to pathogen clearance.

Seriously, thanks for taking the time. Super well written. Definitely dropping some knowledge.

[pureantigravity]

Daily Deaths in the USA is still going down.
Next week we will know of it is just a 2 week lag from cases.

[jono]

Thanks to all the experts posting in here. Some of it takes a few reads, but you guys are breaking it down really well.

Thing is that I sincerely doubt that jgb is suddenly a public health epidemiologist savant, able to pull pubmed articles out of thin air to support his ignrnt stance - he's getting fed this shit by a personalized cadre of social media FUD-bots.

This is why we can't have nice lives. People of every generation get their chance to be fascists, Nazi sympathizers, etc. This is ours and a few people are really taking advantage. Every time these assholes pass the FUD-bot bullshit along they make it harder for everyone else to do the right thing. And that's their reward. At least the Nazi sympathizers got to drink a little wine or make off with a painting or something. These asshats do it just for the fun of worshipping satan.

You just lost all credibility quoting a shill hired by Trump
Your conspiracy theories are get stooped shit posts like this put on ignore. You're a very loyal Fox puppet

I gotta give Core Shot a little credit: he has way more sources of crazy than just Fox. He's an actual 9/11 "truther" and has probably laid eyes on the real (Kenyan) birth certificate. Dude knows who killed Kennedy! I mean, he doesn't actually know who killed Kennedy, but he definitely knows who Didn't kill him, and that's some important shit right there. He's got a rep to live up to and learning about reality is waay too obvious.

[old goat]

Here in Douglas County Nevada, following Sisolak's order mandating mask use, our Sheriff's department issued its own statement saying that they will not be enforcing the order. Basically they said there was too much risk of backlash.

because they're white people so the cops can't just shoot them. Fuck the backlash--what about the rest of us. Cops--do your fucking job while you still have one.

[LongShortLong]

On the other hand, Biden said he'd make face masks manadatory.

Won't be much of a ski season if we have to wait for Biden before knocking down the rat flu.

[subtle plague]

“Butt-chug da covid” was my idea. Still waiting for my millions of dollars and cover of Time magazine.

Keep on living the dream! A true American story of a self made butt chugging billionaire.

[Cono Este]

I went out with hot Croatian anesthesiologist last week, and she said most of the masks, especially the home made ones, don’t work. She said even the n95 are not intended for this type of protection.

And no, she’s not texted back yet.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[jgb@etree]

Thing is that I sincerely doubt that jgb is suddenly a public health epidemiologist savant, able to pull pubmed articles out of thin air to support his ignrnt stance - he's getting fed this shit by a personalized cadre of social media FUD-bots.

LMAO. I bet you're a big fan of conspiracy theories? If effective use of google is how you define a 'public health epidemiologist savant' we are completely fucked and the world is going to end, like, next week.

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=study+effectiv...of+cloth+masks

Both links come from the top 5 hits. If you ask any of the dozens of mags who know me personally you'd know how idiotic your statement about 'social media FUD-bots' is. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone with an internet connection who has less exposure to social media than I do. If it can be considered such, TGR is the beginning and end of my 'social media' exposure. I'm a pro nerd herder and use my tech-fu to block all that shit at the edge of my network. I don't just ignore it, I don't even see it.

Anyhow, have a nice day

Gonna take my son out kneeboarding while you losers spend all day Saturday arguing on the internet

[jono]

I went out with hot Croatian anesthesiologist last week, and she said most of the masks, especially the home made ones, don’t work. She said even the n95 are not intended for this type of protection.

Define "this type."

[jono]

If effective use of google is how you define a 'public health epidemiologist savant' we are completely fucked and the world is going to end, like, next week.

https://lmgtfy.com/?q=study+effectiv...of+cloth+masks

Both links come from the top 5 hits.

Being an effective user, you know how Google sorts results, right? In any case those two results were both garbage clicks relative to the discussion, so Tri-U's point stands. Maybe it takes a little reading in addition to google-fu. Possibly.