Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[KQ]

[MultiVerse]

^ Speaking of masks, a new BMJ Global Health study shows masks capable of reducing secondary SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households by 79%:

https://gh.bmj.com/content/bmjgh/5/5/e002794.full.pdf

[skaredshtles]

That's what brainwashing from a young age will get you.

[Bunion 2020]

why dont you do the same and stop with the deebased quotes.

A. What we are discussing is not Polyass material.

B. I will do so. There are times albeit rare that D has some interesting points of view. Right now it is being pedantic and annoying.

And feel free to put me on ignore anytime.

[Ted Striker]

Not all kids are dumbfucks

[ron johnson]

More from my American hoaxer friends.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...ns_143253.html

Good article, what part do you take issue with?

[ron johnson]

A lot of these arguments seem to be around dismissing the virus as NBD so as to lessen the economic impact in spite of what deaths may occur. I can't opine about the ethics of this way of viewing our current situation. We do seem to go through these arguments one at a time, sometimes repeatedly, and end up back at square one after smarter people than me, Deeb, etc. point out the flaws in their logic.

One thought, just of the top of my head, at Deeb's 1% fatality rate, 3.3 million deaths would be quite the hit on the economy. To put it in perspective, the US population grows by about 2.2-2.4 million people per year, and that drives a lot of our economic growth.

Long way of saying that no matter your take on the severity of the virus, that many deaths isn't going to help our economic situation.

CDC's latest IFR estimate is less than .3%. Either way your economic argument doesn't work because the majority of deaths from COVID are people who are economic burdens on society.

[ron johnson]

The inter-relation of climate change and C19 response is one of the better short-term arguments to allow nature to take its course. Longer term the deaths caused by the c19 response and media is/will vastly exceed the final IFR.

Not to mention the "look at the models" and "trust the experts" parallels.

[Deebased]

Pretty interesting study out of Wuhan with more good news.

Asymptomatic individuals have less than half the shedding length of Symptomatic 8 vs 19 days.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...20_term=052720

[MultiVerse]

Conservative source National Review hinting at political machinations from the new CDC site featuring the low IFR numbers mentioned above:

Why Does the CDC Think the COVID-19 Fatality Rate Is So Low, and Why Won’t It Tell Anyone?

Last week I was searching the Internet for some COVID-19 statistic or other, and I came across a new CDC website. The site featured some numbers the federal government is using to model the spread of the epidemic. One in particular caught my eye: 0.4 percent, the “current best estimate” of the disease’s “case fatality rate.” The document also said that 35 percent of infections are asymptomatic, which suggests the infection fatality rate is just 0.26 percent.

These numbers struck me as low for several reasons. For one thing, the virus has already killed 0.2 percent of all New Yorkers, and obviously a much higher percentage of those who’ve actually been infected in the city. For another, if we’ve had 100,000 deaths nationwide and a CFR of 0.4 percent, that means we’ve had 25 million symptomatic cases; including cases without symptoms, more than 10 percent of the entire country has been infected, which seems out of sync with what we’re hearing from serology tests. Individual studies and reviews of the evidence tend to put the infection fatality rate somewhere around 0.5 to 1 percent, though there’s at least one dissenting review that puts it lower (while managing not to include any studies finding a fatality rate above 0.5 percent, of which there are plenty).

If the fatality rate of this thing is 0.26 percent, that is fantastic news. If the CDC has evidence this is the case, it should share it with the rest of us.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...t-tell-anyone/

[KQ]

Half of newly diagnosed coronavirus cases in Washington are in people under 40

[twat]

death rate in percent on total population

NYC 0,20% -------- 27.751 population per square mile

Lombardia 0,16% ------- 1.001 population per square mile
Italy 0,06% ------- 521 population per square mile
San Marino 0,13%

Austria 0,01% ------- 275 population per square mile
Landeck 0,21% ------- 1.300 population per square mile (local cluster with ischgl and stanton)
Tirol 0,01%

Sweden 0,04% ------- 60 population per square mile
Washington 0,01%
france 0,04% ------- 270 population per square mile
belgium 0,08%------- 974 population per square mile

eu 0,08% ------- 275 population per square mile
USA 0,03% ------- 87 population per square mile

i have posted this here many times before, numbers are from google 29th of may 2020

it is not like a flu better don´t get it,

i have a theory regarding conspiracy theories
people need a simple answer for complex questions
like the gods were angry so they came with this plague for you sinners
or you have to sacrifice a lamb/daughter

there is no simple answer for a complex question

ok the more likely option is: the tranquilliser mixed in jet-fuel is missing cause there is no planes in the sky so the conspiracy theorist are on fire

[Pow4Brains]

Of course it's a chubby middle-aged white guy with a goatee. These guys need a name like Karens do.

https://youtu.be/LuzGs8SfXBo

Sent from my SM-G960U using TGR Forums mobile app

[muted]

https://youtu.be/LuzGs8SfXBo

Sent from my SM-G960U using TGR Forums mobile app

That's not a chubby middle-aged white guy with a goatee.

[Core Shot]

Half of newly diagnosed coronavirus cases in Washington are in people under 40

How many hospitalized or dead?

Under 40, this ain’t nuthin
For 99.9?%

[Soups]

How many hospitalized or dead?

Under 40, this ain’t nuthin
For 99.9?%

I think its closer to 99.992%?

[The AD]

How many hospitalized or dead?

Under 40, this ain’t nuthin
For 99.9?%

How many are they going to cause to be hospitalized or dead?

Also doesn't it seem like no one is talking about how dangerous these protests are for George Floyd? Some of the scenes I've seen show very densely packed groups of protesters and we know this disease is already hitting African Americans particularly hard.

[Dhelihiker]

This guy has some good inofrmation

[MultiVerse]

How many hospitalized or dead?

Under 40, this ain’t nuthin
For 99.9?%

The data across several first world countries shows the case fatality rate for people ages 20 to 40 is currently about .2% so somewhere around 99.8% of the cases under 40 survive. Under 40 also make up about 20% of Covid-19 hospitalizations and about 12% of ICU admissions.


Among other things, exposure/dosage and access to health care matters when it comes to survival. In developing countries COVID is killing many more young people:

In Brazil, 15 percent of deaths have been people under 50 — a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...641_story.html

[Soups]

A quick calc shows, as of the numbers on 5/23/20, that 0.025% of COVID deaths are 44 and younger.

99.975% of COVID deaths to date are >44

Edit: for the US

[MultiVerse]

^ Either way the numbers are low for people under 40 but the 0.2% is the case fatality rate which is not the same as the percentage of all cases.

Early on there was a strong nosocomial (originating in a hospital) component to the cases so the fact that many more older people died makes sense because older people, especially people in nursing homes, require more health care.

It remains to be seen as the virus spreads more deeply into the population whether younger people become more heavily impacted.

[Soups]

I was specifically talking deaths

[MultiVerse]

Yeah, understood. Core Shot asked about hospitalized or dead for under 40 so about 0.2% fatalities among diagnosed cases, 20% of all hospitalizations, 12% of ICU admissions, and roughly 0.025% of all deaths in the U.S. so far.

[Core Shot]

Yeah, understood. Core Shot asked about hospitalized or dead for under 40 so about 0.2% fatalities among diagnosed cases, 20% of all hospitalizations, 12% of ICU admissions, and roughly 0.025% of all deaths in the U.S. so far.

Wasn’t flinging poo. Just fed up with the “positive“ test data.
The only thing that means anything to me is hospitalization and death. That’s real. And sad.

[old goat]

Our best hope is that the Trump family lines up and pulls up their sleeves for a rushed shot.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2766651

Hard to argue with their position. The problem is that even the half hearted attempts at mitigation are unsustainable for much longer. Economic, social, and political pressure will make early release of the vaccine unavoidable. If no serious side effects emerge in the first few thousand patients after a few months I think the vaccine should be released as an experimental drug and everyone who wants the shot should be fully informed about the potential unknown risks. Essentially everyone who wants the shot would be enrolled as clinical trial subjects, subject to vaccine availability. There won't be enough vaccine for everyone at the beginning, so the number who want to get the shot and can't get it will exceed the number of refusers.

The important thing is honesty, which has been in short supply in this pandemic. Make sure not to sugar coat the risks of a rushed vaccine. Make sure not to exaggerate the chance that it will work. We don't need lies like "masks do no good (because we think you'll hoard them and health care workers won't have them)", or "we're closing schools for two weeks (even though we know it will probably be 2 years)."

Say what you will about the tenets of national socialism, at least it's an ethos.

Economics denier? Market value of a human life lost due to on the job risk is $10M at last assessment, taking .01%/year as average risk increase (the market pays $1000/year increase at that risk level). This does not account for price increases due to a spike in demand for risk-taking employees or for higher-paid employees who aren't normally asked to accept on the job risk.

Advertised bonuses for nurses and the number of dentists seeking to hire dental hygienists these days indicate that either the perceived risk is more than .01% or the price to hire risk takers has already risen significantly. It is cheaper to recognize the economic value of human life and pay what it costs to reduce the risk than to accept a certain number of dead and pay the workers accordingly.

The fact that the United States has been able to hire patriots and the poverty-stricken to die at the order of their country for pennies on the dollar has blinded many people to the real cost of risk in the middle of the labor market. To say nothing of the upper end.

Beautifully stated.