Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[old goat]

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If you like a wire over the bridge of the nose try Threadless. I've ordered a couple of masks from them but have not rec'd them yet (oh how I long for the days of quick shipping!). Will review once I receive. They have hundreds of designs from political statements to flowers to solid and everything in-between. All masks are reversible to black.

Hmmm--my kid's old band uniform is hanging upstairs in the closet. I wonder if he'd be pissed if I cut it up.

"If you can read this mask you're to close."

[Benny Profane]

So, when it blows up in a few weeks, what's the new bullshit/gaslight going to be?
"You told us all to wear masks and stay home and it blew up anyway"
"There's no spread, improved testing found more cases"
"I didn't get sick, what are you afraid of?"

I'm hoping it doesn't blow up, or there's been some public health development that's saving us, or enough people stick with the plan and there aren't enough idiots to blow it. Given that outbreaks happen in countries with high levels of corona control, I expect a dramatic case rise. Working against widespread outbreak is distancing, summer weather, people meet outdoors, people not indoors at work/school. My guess is with reduced distancing, corona's virulence outweighs all of the rest.

I'm also hoping that if we do blow it, people will finally get religion.

It's going to take overcrowded hospitals to raise eyebrows. And they don't have many beds in the country.

[KQ]

Hmmm--my kid's old band uniform is hanging upstairs in the closet. I wonder if he'd be pissed if I cut it up.

"If you can read this mask you're to close."

[XXX-er]

maybe its gona take another 100,000 dead ?

I'm also hoping that if we do blow it, people will finally get religion.

I think religion IS one of America's problems

[carpathian]

^^ doesn’t Smithers have more churches per capita then any other town in BC? Something like 13 churches for 5000 ppl

[Benny Profane]

maybe its gona take another 100,000 dead ?

Problem is, the numbers are now fake news in many minds.

[XXX-er]

^^ doesn’t Smithers have more churches per capita then any other town in BC? Something like 13 churches for 5000 ppl

well sure but they put their wooden clogs on one after the other just like ever one else eh, and remember the family that prays togetehr on sunday is not in the lineup for 1st T !

I went by yer old house on that street which rhymes with Vagina the other day,

i noticed the carpathian ski facotry was gone and buddy had a bunch of trucks on blocks and in variuos states of repair

[The SnowShow]

Problem is, the numbers are now fake news in many minds.

I get this from conservative friends. Fucking dolts.

[XXX-er]

Problem is, the numbers are now fake news in many minds.

well maybe another 100,000 will have some traction in those minds ?

I been watching you folks on the big march to 100,000, a month ago it was hard to believe USA could pull it off but here you are, I think hitting 200.000 will go much faster.

[KQ]

Problem is, the numbers are now fake news in many minds.

Washington state has politicians currently in office who are calling the deaths fake and the whole thing a hoax while encouraging citizens to defy the SAH order and organizing rallies.

LOL!! Had to laugh at this one - check out the comment below. This guy wants to stay shutdown until the next election on Nov. 3rd. What a maroon.

[carpathian]

Coke head DJ renter dude burned half the property down a couple years ago after doing the spring grass burning thing . Original Carpathian ski factory was a casualty

[XXX-er]

Bummer! I never seen a shed using 4 big living trees as the corner posts I thot it was pretty neat the way the Carpathian ski factory swayed in the wind !

trying to think who was the cokehead dj ?

[Meathelmet]

For Sweden, theories about why they don’t have more population with antibodies is concerning: either their infection modeling is very wrong or not all that get infected develop antibodies (or something else?)

This is the trillion dollar question atm: what do we not see?

Swedes had (1wk ago) apparently 5% infection-prevalence rate per populace, about same as Spain/France.
And that in a weird way does not add up: How can a population with no curfews have the same infection rate as countries that locked down hard, like Spain?? I mean one does not leave the apartment for delivering the trash hard.
Nobody seems to know what the Swedish methods are/were for calculating nor what kind of test kit(s) they have been using.
The general consensus from the neighbouring countries is "fuck you, we are keeping borders closes for you Swedes for the time being".
Basically, everyone is thinking Sweden have dropped their ball...and while maybe not hiding anything (??) per se, they just don't have any reliable data to provide to anyone.

[XXX-er]

^^ doesn’t Smithers have more churches per capita then any other town in BC? Something like 13 churches for 5000 ppl

well sure but they put their wooden clogs on one after the other just like ever one else eh !

I went by yer old house on the street which rhymes with Vagina the other day,

i noticed the carpathian ski facotry was gone and buddy had a bunch of trucks on blocks and in variuos states of repair

[Svengali]

groundhog day in Smithers?

[Benny Profane]

well maybe another 100,000 will have some traction in those minds ?

I been watching you folks on the big march to 100,000, a month ago it was hard to believe USA could pull it off but here you are, I think hitting 200.000 will go much faster.

I'm guessing 500,000 by the end of '21.

[XXX-er]

Do you think America will notice 500,000 dead ?

Any cocktail napkin math or is that a WAG ?

[wooley12]

I wonder what the over/under is? Gotta be closer the the truth than any other source.

[LongShortLong]

Do you think America will notice 500,000 dead ?

Any cocktail napkin math or is that a WAG ?

With exponential growth, and unknown variation in the exponential factor as behaviors change, the cocktail napkin math (and detailed models) tend toward WAG as the timeframes become long.

Would not be hard to cross 500,000 by the end of 2020. There's 220 days to NYE. We'd need to average about 1800 dead per day.

If we managed to convince most of us to drop social distancing, I bet we could be there by end of July. Here's the napkin model - June 10 2k/day, June 15 4k/day, June 20 8k/day, June 25 16k/day, June 30 32k/day, July 5 64k/day. I allotted a few weeks to get the death rate back up to 2k/day, and to convince most everyone corona is a nothingburger and bars/parties/churches are awesome. Actually, there's a weeks long delay between infections and dying, so frontload another 2 weeks. I also assumed cases can double in 5 days, which I don't think is controversial. Back in March we were seeing doubling in 2 days or less. In practice, people would freak out as cases and deaths begin to rise, so we'd be unable to sustain the growth needed to kill 500k by the end of July.

What will actually happen? Hard to say. Putting on the happy mask... Daily deaths has been trending down for over a month. A few yahoos you see in the news might cause a bump a few weeks from now. Even so, a bumpy gradual decline in daily deaths seems a possible future. We're learning which countermeasures are most effective and how to balance countermeasures with work and play. If a bumpy decline works out, 500k by end of 2021 is a reasonable guess. Could be half that, with luck.

Looking at recent history, I'm gonna guess 0.89% of Americans would have died in 2020 without corona. I get 2.9 million. An extra 500k means some overtime for St. Peter, but it's manageable

[Bunion 2020]

So exactly when did trying to be good to each other and trying not to spread a communicable disease become a political act?

[KQ]

So exactly when did trying to be good to each other and trying not to spread a communicable disease become a political act?

'bout the time Rush Limbaugh et al took to the airwaves.

[The AD]

So exactly when did trying to be good to each other and trying not to spread a communicable disease become a political act?

1/20/17

[El Chupacabra]

One of you needs to order this:

[Deebased]

Kamala Harris V.P.

Warren Sec of Treasury

Or just sell the remaining functional bits of America to China. Why do we need these middle persons.

[XXX-er]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/corona...uine-1.5583608

World Health Organization temporarily halts hydroxychloroquine trials ^^

did anybody believe Trump when he said he was taking the stuff ?

in any case the WHO is a very bad organization

mostly cuz trump was way behind on paying his end of funding

its kind of like when he doesnt pay a contracter