Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Buster Highmen]

I have a hard time taking most of the data seriously, with one exception.

I'm a skeptic at heart, but the COVID-19 root data problem is that we just don't have a significant quanta of reliable tests, let alone how the results of those test are analyzed. Everyone has a fucking axe to grind and the tests have enormous error terms.

In particular, the infectious rates, the asymptomatic rates, any of that shit, except the death rates.

The only thing we have are the death rates.

And that alone, in the absence of any other reliable data is enough to convince me to stay home and be careful and encourage other to do so. Too many people don't get geometric growth.

I don't get the economic argument of starting up. That position completely puts the economy in front of the humanity. That makes no fucking sense.

I get that the food banks are stressed, people are worried and all that. But if one looks at this in the context of history, of the Spanish Flu, polio, aids, etc, going back to mixing and increasing exposure will be a much worse economic impact, let alone the more important human consequences.

Elements of society that make that replacement boil down to anarchists who want governments to fail. Fuck them. Especially RJ who extolls the work of one of the most disconnected and highly decorated academic economists, F. Hayek.

[Lvovsky]

My wife, 9 month old and I have come down with respiratory coughs and high fevers, body aches, headaches. Took the baby in yesterday to get her checked out. The nurse was pretty adamant we not test the baby or myself. This is the test center in my town, a resort area that got hammered early and hard - 503 cases in ~50k population.

The nurse said 1) the tests suck, only about 70% accurate so many false positives and negatives; 2) we're low risk, young and healthy; 3) it doesn't matter anyways - go home, self-quarantine until 3 days of no symptoms, get good sleep, eat well. That's great advice, except the baby, that's also teething, decided she would rather cry all night long and now we feel even more like dog shit.

We've been isolating for a month now and taking precautions when we have had to venture out. So maybe we have it? Maybe not? The local testing clinic didn't seem to care.

Shit... hang in there. Speedy recovery from whatever you have.

[Buster Highmen]

In my little window in the health care world (yes, I was a teenage phlebotomist) the thing that struck me was how much the health system relied on nurses and med techs. Trust them.

[iceman]

Internet Austrians like RJ are even worse than Hayek. Hayek favored a stable increasing nominal GDP target while internet Austrians start with an idealized theory, and then try to make history conform to that imagined nirvana.

And there you have it.

[Lvovsky]

What are your chances of running into a positive person given the number of infected persons in the whole of the US population and the size of the group you're gathered with?

Attachment 325773

where would an average size ski resort fall on that chart? 10% line? Assuming fully operating resort. Is 5000 people per day a good assumption for a resort gathering?

[Buster Highmen]

And there you have it.

where did it go?

[hutash]

It might be more complicated than just mutation rate ...

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0060343

- virus transmissibility
- behavioral changes
- population heterogeneity
- virus mutation (not an issue, as you mentioned)
- waning immunity (you mentioned)

It is more complicated (see my earlier posts), but just trying to keep it simple. This is very different from the 1918 United States of American flu (if Trump wants to use origin labels, let's be consistent. ) But, that is our best comparison, so we are not likely to see the second wave disaster we had in the fall.of 1918. 1918 was a perfect storm of a pandemic because it was a liable flu virus, the war and the early vestiges of real public health. Hell, in 1918 they didn't even know it was a virus.

[summit]

Is Medicare Paying Hospitals $13K for Patients Diagnosed with COVID-19, $39K for Those on Ventilators?

that is shit pay based on ALOS/GLOS (used to review this shit as side job)
I think ALOS is 8 for nonventilated COVID pts. So all nsg care room charges etc... that is break even territory.
ALOS for COVID requiring CMV is >15 days. ICU CMV days cost ~11K/day and Medicaid is paying <3K.
Now you see why hospitals are furloughing everyone or forcing PTO. Sure census is down overall and surgeries are cancelled, and the patients they have are losses!

[Buster Highmen]

I have no confidence in any data analysis of COVID-19 aside from the death numbers. Once we develop a reliable test or matrix of reliable tests, maybe I'll start understanding.

Data always has error terms.

Once there's a significant amount of data, I'm more willing to trust the means and averages. But so far, I just don't feel that way with a lot of the COVID-19 data. That's what makes me cautious.

[klauss]

No way this guy doesn’t have hypertension and an order of the beetus. He’ll be a goner if/when he gets the rat flu


https://twitter.com/wagsphoto/status...289885184?s=21

[Benny Profane]

Of course you're allowed. But when the talk veers to the Austrian School and the recession of 1920 and Hoover's policies it's just barely possible that we may have gone a bit too far afield. Just the fact that RJ showed up is enough to tell you things are off track.

Ice blows his whistle and throws the flag.

[jono]

I have a hard time taking most of the data seriously, with one exception.

I'm a skeptic at heart, but the COVID-19 root data problem is that we just don't have a significant quanta of reliable tests, let alone how the results of those test are analyzed. Everyone has a fucking axe to grind and the tests have enormous error terms.

In particular, the infectious rates, the asymptomatic rates, any of that shit, except the death rates.

The only thing we have are the death rates.

And that alone, in the absence of any other reliable data is enough to convince me to stay home and be careful and encourage other to do so. Too many people don't get geometric growth.

I don't get the economic argument of starting up. That position completely puts the economy in front of the humanity. That makes no fucking sense.

Even death tolls are incomplete since untested dead go uncounted. And since deaths lag the infection rate, and it's easier to see and understand the geometric nature of the infection rate than death rate, a significant number of people are in denial about exponential growth. The number of discussions I've had with otherwise mentally-grounded individuals who work with math daily but are totally in denial on this has been shocking.

And you're right about the economy, of course. It should be obvious to anyone with a BS meter: no one is offering a quantitative analysis to compare options and concluding that the economy would be better off if we decide to ignore the disease.

The only arguments to "reopen the economy" are qualitative feelings-based nonsense that ignores the inevitable realities of that, both in lives and dollars. You can wish in one hand, hope in the other and crap in the gripping hand and see which one fills up first--just don't touch your face afterwards!

[wooley12]

Asymptomatic carriers + Ability to infect = Zombies?

[ron johnson]

I have a hard time taking most of the data seriously, with one exception.

I'm a skeptic at heart, but the COVID-19 root data problem is that we just don't have a significant quanta of reliable tests, let alone how the results of those test are analyzed. Everyone has a fucking axe to grind and the tests have enormous error terms.

In particular, the infectious rates, the asymptomatic rates, any of that shit, except the death rates.

The only thing we have are the death rates.

And that alone, in the absence of any other reliable data is enough to convince me to stay home and be careful and encourage other to do so. Too many people don't get geometric growth.

I don't get the economic argument of starting up. That position completely puts the economy in front of the humanity. That makes no fucking sense.

I get that the food banks are stressed, people are worried and all that. But if one looks at this in the context of history, of the Spanish Flu, polio, aids, etc, going back to mixing and increasing exposure will be a much worse economic impact, let alone the more important human consequences.

Elements of society that make that replacement boil down to anarchists who want governments to fail. Fuck them. Especially RJ who extolls the work of one of the most disconnected and highly decorated academic economists, F. Hayek.

Why do you bring me up in this post? I haven't made any post about reopening the economy. I've never mentioned Hayek, but what exactly is your problem with him?

[ex-powderbroker]

Nobody uses it.

when’s the last time you were in LA?

[Benny Profane]

No way this guy doesn’t have hypertension and an order of the beetus. He’ll be a goner if/when he gets the rat flu


https://twitter.com/wagsphoto/status...289885184?s=21

I don't know. He's looking strong. Been hitting the weights.

[iceman]

No way this guy doesn’t have hypertension and an order of the beetus. He’ll be a goner if/when he gets the rat flu


https://twitter.com/wagsphoto/status...289885184?s=21

we could start a pool.

[Benny Profane]

Well, you have to admit, he's showing more balls than Hannity.

[jono]

Well, you have to admit, he's showing more balls than Hannity.

Nah man. Those are pre-tested crisis actors.

[iceman]

Thankfully I have no idea what Hannity is up to but yeah that's pretty ballsy by Jones. You in the pool?

[Rideski]

I have no confidence in any data analysis of COVID-19 aside from the death numbers. Once we develop a reliable test or matrix of reliable tests, maybe I'll start understanding.

Data always has error terms.

Once there's a significant amount of data, I'm more willing to trust the means and averages. But so far, I just don't feel that way with a lot of the COVID-19 data. That's what makes me cautious.

As far as pre-death controlled studies go, this has to be near the top?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21Y2GB

[SkiCougar]

Thankfully I have no idea what Hannity is up to but yeah that's pretty ballsy by Jones. You in the pool?

despite majority opinion I do not either, he seems to like to give trump a BJ too much. unfortunately trump cannot seem to get it up for one. despite nearly a month's evidence showing that the virus is killing .0001 of 1 percent and less than diabetes does, he is extremely week on opening businesses all over, over a strong flu; pretty sad.

[iceman]

are you drunk?

[SkiCougar]

are you drunk?

drunk on facts and reality iceman, the 420 pothead thread is for the rest here, not me.

[SkiBall]

RIP Bob Lazier. Vail pioneer who built a ton in the valley. 81 yro. Raced in the Indy 500 back in the 80’s.