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  1. #11601
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    https://gothamist.com/news/surge-num...related-deaths



    If you die at home from the coronavirus, there’s a good chance you won’t be included in the official death toll, because of a discrepancy in New York City’s reporting process. Update: After WNYC/Gothamist's reporting, the city has reversed its position and will count probable COVID-19 deaths that occur at home.

    The problem means the city’s official death count is likely far lower than the real toll taken by the virus, according to public health officials.

    It also means that victims without access to testing are not being counted, and even epidemiologists are left without a full understanding of the pandemic.

    As of Monday afternoon, 2,738 New York City residents have died from ‘confirmed’ cases of COVID-19, according to the city Department of Health. That’s an average of 245 a day since the previous Monday. 

    But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed. 

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    Listen to reporter Gwynne Hogan discuss her story on WNYC:

    That’s because the ME’s office is not testing dead bodies for COVID-19. Instead, they’re referring suspected cases to the city’s health department as “probable.”

    “If someone dies at home, and we go to the home and there [are] signs of influenza, our medical examiner may determine the cause of death was clearly an influenza-like illness, potentially COVID or an influenza-like illness believed to be COVID,” said Worthy-Davis. “We report all our deaths citywide to the health department, who releases that data to the public.” 

    But the health department does not include that number in the official count unless it is confirmed, a spokesman said. 

    “Every person with a lab confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis is counted in the number of fatalities,” the spokesman, Michael Lanza, said in an email. He said the city's coronavirus death tally does not break down who died at home versus who died in a hospital from the virus.

    “While undiagnosed cases that result in at-home deaths are connected to a public health pandemic...not all suspected COVID-19 deaths are brought in for examination by OCME, nor do we provide testing in most of these natural at-home deaths,” Lanza said.

    Typically, when someone dies at home, a loved one, acquaintance or neighbor calls the police or 911. First responders call in the medical examiner, who conducts a review to determine if there was foul play, then records a cause of death.

    Worthy-Davis could not immediately provide a tally of how many “probable” COVID-19 deaths have been referred to the Health Department. The health department also could not provide the number of “probable” COVID deaths certified by OCME. 

    If a person had been tested before death, that record would be passed along, said Worthy-Davis. But testing protocols have generally excluded victims who are not hospitalized.

    Statistics from the Fire Department, which runs EMS, confirm a staggering rise in deaths occurring at the scene before first responders can transport a person to a hospital for care.

    The FDNY says it responded to 2,192 cases of deaths at home between March 20th and April 5th, or about 130 a day, an almost 400 percent increase from the same time period last year. (In 2019, there were just 453 cardiac arrest calls where a patient died, according to the FDNY.) 

    That number has been steadily increasing since March 30th, with 241 New Yorkers dying at home Sunday — more than the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths that occurred citywide that day. On Monday night, the city reported 266 new deaths, suggesting the possibility of a 40% undercount of coronavirus-related deaths."

  2. #11602
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    "Possibility of Disinfection of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in Human Respiratory Tract by Controlled Ethanol Vapor Inhalation"

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12444.pdf


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    This is theoretical and completely untested but in an abundance of caution....

  3. #11603
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    Please tell me that your username is not an accurate description of your line of work.

  4. #11604
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  5. #11605
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neurodoc View Post
    "Possibility of Disinfection of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in Human Respiratory Tract by Controlled Ethanol Vapor Inhalation"

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12444.pdf


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    This is theoretical and completely untested but in an abundance of caution....
    that's alcohol abuse
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  6. #11606
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neurodoc View Post
    "Possibility of Disinfection of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in Human Respiratory Tract by Controlled Ethanol Vapor Inhalation"

    This is theoretical and completely untested but in an abundance of caution....
    Yeh ... no. Minimum of 60% alcohol to kill virus. Whiskey starts around 40%, pour into hot vessel to evapourate some of the alcohol off and then dilute 50% with hot water. You do the math. Dumb.

  7. #11607
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    At the store today that had marks on the floor where you were supposed to wait for checkout. I'm standing on my mark and lady comes up the aisle and inserts herself between me and the person in front of me. I was too stunned to say anything.

    They had the lanes marked as one way but no one was paying attention to that.
    I actually confronted people going the wrong way and headed towards us. Twice I told them to turn around and get out of my way, once it was 3 teenagers walking side by side and when I told them they told me to fk off. It didn't end well but they did turn around. Turns out they complained to the store manager and ended up getting thrown out and told they were not welcome back until things go back to normal. So many time you have to tell people off as they reach in front of you or refuse to get out of the way and stand in the middle of the aisle. I wish it was less than 3 weeks to get food delivered...

  8. #11608
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    Quote Originally Posted by Summit View Post
    that's alcohol abuse
    Agreed. A small ice cube or a few ml of water does open up a whiskey.

    But that was just wrong to see.
    . . .

  9. #11609
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    Gavin says enough of this bullshit, we're doing our own PPE supply chain.

    But “at the end of the day, they don't have the mass at the national stockpile,’’ he told Maddow. “We were going out getting 5 million here, 500,000 there, 200,000 there — competing against other states, competing against the federal government,’’ he said. “We decided enough of the small ball. Let's use our purchasing power. Let's go at scale.”

  10. #11610
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    Quote Originally Posted by truckeelocal View Post
    Yeh ... no. Minimum of 60% alcohol to kill virus. Whiskey starts around 40%, pour into hot vessel to evapourate some of the alcohol off and then dilute 50% with hot water. You do the math. Dumb.
    If you read it it says "inhalation". The hot water is apparently to cause the alcohol to evaporate and then you breathe the vapor in (I assume - there seems to be at least one more page that's missing). No idea if there's even a gliimer of possibility that it might work.

    edit: the link posted has more detail

  11. #11611
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  12. #11612
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Unless you are at a pedestrian-controlled crossing light.

    Doh!

  13. #11613
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    Quote Originally Posted by gravitylover View Post
    I actually confronted people going the wrong way and headed towards us. Twice I told them to turn around and get out of my way, once it was 3 teenagers walking side by side and when I told them they told me to fk off. It didn't end well but they did turn around. Turns out they complained to the store manager and ended up getting thrown out and told they were not welcome back until things go back to normal. So many time you have to tell people off as they reach in front of you or refuse to get out of the way and stand in the middle of the aisle. I wish it was less than 3 weeks to get food delivered...
    Yup. When people did to me what they did to OG I corrected them. Not that I was in a hurry but to educate. One woman thanked me for pointing out the marks on the floor. Others just moved quietly.

    On another note: The Governor of Arkansas is an idiot.

    And: WTF Sweden?!!
    When you see something that is not right, not just, not fair, you have a moral obligation to say something. To do something." Rep. John Lewis


    Kindness is a bridge between all people

    Dunkin’ Donuts Worker Dances With Customer Who Has Autism

  14. #11614
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    Quote Originally Posted by bodywhomper View Post
    This is a very interesting article

    https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-stu...id-19/32073873


    What I find so unusual about this article and study is that Hanson is a co-lead and spokesperson for this study. This seems really far out of the purview of a right wing political commenter and military historian from the Hoover Institute https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Davis_Hanson
    Regarding the antibody test described in the article:


    “Positive results may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E. While the presence of antibodies doesn’t necessarily prevent future infections, they can reduce the severity of future infections of the current COVID-19 strain.”

    https://www.arcpointlabs.com/covid-19-antibody-testing/

  15. #11615
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    Dec 2004
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    Hutchinson has been an idiot for a long time. It is AR after all.

    I was at the hardware store today in line, same deal, big Xs on the floor.

    I am in line and old guy walks up and cuts the line. No one said anything.

    My give a shit level just was not there.

    Saw lots more masks today.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  16. #11616
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    We've run over 2 million tests nationally and the percent positive rate has yet to drop.

    Click image for larger version. 

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  17. #11617
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    Quote Originally Posted by old goat View Post
    At the store today that had marks on the floor where you were supposed to wait for checkout. I'm standing on my mark and lady comes up the aisle and inserts herself between me and the person in front of me. I was too stunned to say anything.

    They had the lanes marked as one way but no one was paying attention to that.
    Wow...not sure you should of said anything or not, but where are your balls? “I was to stunned to say anything.” Fuck, our generation could never storm the beach at Normandy.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    "We had nice 3 days in your autonomous mountain realm last weekend." - Tom from Austria (the Rax ski guy)

  18. #11618
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    I don't know what that chart ^^ really tells us. About 20% of those people who seek out testing end up testing positive, and that percentage is trending up. okay...

  19. #11619
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    Quote Originally Posted by gretch6364 View Post
    Wow...not sure you should of said anything or not, but where are your balls? “I was to stunned to say anything.” Fuck, our generation could never storm the beach at Normandy.
    Dude he was at Omaha beach.

  20. #11620
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    No need to say anything, just start coughing.

  21. #11621
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    Click image for larger version. 

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  22. #11622
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    I don't know what that chart ^^ really tells us. About 20% of those people who seek out testing end up testing positive, and that percentage is trending up. okay...
    One would hope that as you test into a finite pool that the percent positive rate will decrease reflecting the fact that the infected population are all being identified (diminishing returns). That's not happening which is solely due to under-sampling. The fact that 2M is still "under-sampled" is scary.

  23. #11623
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Dude he was at Omaha beach.
    TGR...catering to 82 year old men in 2020


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    "We had nice 3 days in your autonomous mountain realm last weekend." - Tom from Austria (the Rax ski guy)

  24. #11624
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    WASHINGTON—In a very serious and damning new report published Wednesday, a government watchdog group has found that, as early as January, White House officials failed to heed repeated warnings of impending doom that arrived via four skeletal horsemen galloping through the sky. “On Jan. 3, the Trump administration received its first notification that a quartet of ghostly riders had barreled out of the endless night—auguring death, despair, and a great cataclysm upon the earth—but the president did not begin to take the threat seriously until mid-March,” said Douglas Reisenthaler of the nonpartisan Institute for Federal Policy, a co-author of the report compiled from interviews with sources who asked to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to discuss torrents of blood raining from the Oval Office ceiling and flooding the West Wing. “For 10 full weeks, during which the White House could have been using the vast resources at its disposal to prepare for the final battle between good and evil, officials instead chose to downplay the coming apocalypse, minimizing omens such as the sudden rupture of the moon, which unleashed the black, inky trail of crows that continues to circle the Washington Monument. How many countless souls could have been saved from the dark ravages of hell simply by alerting the public that a beast with seven heads and 10 horns had emerged from the sea?” Asked about the report, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany replied that the ominous sound of seven trumpets was being heard all the time, and no one could have known these were the seven trumpets that would herald the 1,000-year reign of Satan on earth.

  25. #11625
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    Quote Originally Posted by huckbucket View Post
    One would hope that as you test into a finite pool that the percent positive rate will decrease reflecting the fact that the infected population are all being identified (diminishing returns). That's not happening which is solely due to under-sampling. The fact that 2M is still "under-sampled" is scary.
    Well it's a selected pool, it's not statistical sampling. it's test results largely from those who felt sick enough to seek out testing. So the fact that that number is somewhat constant is unsurprising. That's how I read it at least. Whatever, it doesn't matter. But I'm kind of amazed at the 2 million number, I wouldn't have guessed near that.

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