Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[iceman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/drericding

Scary as hell. I dare you to read this Harvard dr tweets

Do you double-dog-dare me? wtf

Yeah I read through it. Gist is it's spreading rapidly, don't trust the Chinese figures, and it appears from recent analyses that the virus may be more transmissible than SARS.

[iceman]

Wuhan is I believe the only level 4 bio research facility

4, 4 and a quarter...

[farmguy]

Kung Flu!

[iceman]

Kung Flu!

Good, but a couple pages late.

[Thaleia]

Rats, snakes, bio weapons, it's a patented strain, Bill Gates, the authorities are lying.. I'm more scared of all the unfounded BS being shared online than the actual illness.

Also, it already has a name.

[JimmyCarter]

Good, but all the pages late.

FIFY

[summit]

https://mobile.twitter.com/drericding

Scary as hell. I dare you to read this Harvard dr tweets

R0 of 2.6 is not that high as diseases go. Sometimes influenza is that high. Measles is usually considered to be 18.

The problem with this virus is that it is airborne, requires critical care for a significant proportion of confirmed cases, and the world population is immunologically naive.

His tone is alarmist. I think the worry is about not controlling this through public health means. But it can be controlled. It doesn't have to be pandemic.

It would be bad if no public health measures were executed and it was allowed to run its course as pandemic.

This afternoon, I ran a epidemological model sim using the 2009 H1N1 model except I tweaked the variables for what data we have on 2019nCoV. The model run infected 25% of the US and 31% of the world and the pandemic died out after 6mo under the model's assumptions which I'd consider worst case, if I did it right. Now apply the Chinese CFR to it and that's a few million dead. Now while it is some remarkable simulation, it is just one model run with imperfect data and most of all didn't model public health interventions (other than mild air travel restrictions) which are our the number one adjunct to stop the spread until we develop antivirals and vaccines.

That said, ALL the numbers are bullshit because they are based on what the Chinese are telling us. Despite all the plaudits they are getting for their transparency, I don't believe them.

Today I just started reading The Great Influenza (Barry).

[iceman]

Summit killed 4 million people today without breaking a sweat.

[summit]

Summit killed 4 million people today without breaking a sweat.

Oh I broke a sweat. Then I took a deep breath. Public health measures are the key.

[Benny Profane]

Wow, dude, chill already. Taking this waaaayyy too seriously.

[PNWbrit]

J Med Virol. 2020 Jan 22. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25682. [Epub ahead of print]
Homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein of the newly identified coronavirus may boost cross-species transmission from snake to human.
Ji W1, Wang W2, Zhao X3, Zai J4, Li X5.

Abstract
The current outbreak of viral pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel coronavirus designated 2019-nCoV by the World Health Organization, as determined by sequencing the viral RNA genome. Many patients were potentially exposed to wildlife animals at the Huanan seafood wholesale market, where poultry, snake, bats, and other farm animals were also sold. To determine the possible virus reservoir, we have carried out comprehensive sequence analysis and comparison in conjunction with relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) bias among different animal species based on existing sequences of the newly identified coronavirus 2019-nCoV. Results obtained from our analyses suggest that the 2019-nCoV appears to be a recombinant virus between the bat coronavirus and an origin-unknown coronavirus. The recombination occurred within the viral spike glycoprotein, which recognizes cell surface receptor. Additionally, our findings suggest that snake is the most probable wildlife animal reservoir for the 2019-nCoV based on its RSCU bias resembling snake compared to other animals. Taken together, our results suggest that homologous recombination within the spike glycoprotein may contribute to cross-species transmission from snake to humans.

........

So far it appears highly contagious with a 0-10 day onset of symptoms, nearly all of the ~60 fatatlies have been age 60+ with underlying immune issues.

Don't argue about viruses with mofro.

[Toadman]

How soon before Trump calls Xi and suggests that Xi nuke Wuhan?

[Kenny Satch]

“We are dissatisfied with the government selecting this housing estate as a (quarantine) separation village as it’s very close to a residential area and a primary school,” said a 28-year-old resident surnamed Tsang.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.Xi5I9d9yYlQ

[dunfree]

Don't argue about viruses with mofro.

however much he knows in his subject, iif he’s quoting Chinese data and papers the limits of his knowledge are exposed.

[Rideski]

exposed.

Sensationalist virus pun?

[old goat]

Chances are this virus will kill a fair number of people but not as many as influenza in an average year and no where near as many as malaria, as examples. The reason for concern with a new virus is that no one knows how it will behave. Will it be a serious but manageable problem, like novel viruses before it, or is this the 1918 flu or the plague? Also, because it is a new virus the entire human population is at risk--potentially like giving smallpox blankets to Native Americans. Until a lot more is known scientists have to assume the worst even though the worst is unlikely.

Of course a virus that culls the elderly isn't entirely a bad thing.

In the meantime I think Contagion is the best disease-that-threatens-to--wipe-out-the-world movie.

[iceman]

Andromeda Strain was early and good.

[HappyCamper]

28 Days Later

[BmillsSkier]

Weekend at Bernies.

[summit]

7News says the Denver patient under investigation does NOT have the coronavirus

How soon before Trump calls Xi and suggests that Xi nuke Wuhan?

There's a meme for that

[MTT]

Chances are this virus will kill a fair number of people but not as many as influenza in an average year and no where near as many as malaria, as examples. The reason for concern with a new virus is that no one knows how it will behave. Will it be a serious but manageable problem, like novel viruses before it, or is this the 1918 flu or the plague? Also, because it is a new virus the entire human population is at risk--potentially like giving smallpox blankets to Native Americans. Until a lot more is known scientists have to assume the worst even though the worst is unlikely.

Of course a virus that culls the elderly isn't entirely a bad thing.

In the meantime I think Contagion is the best disease-that-threatens-to--wipe-out-the-world movie.

I just saw that a case(s) showed up in California. I mumbled Here we go.

Hope this fizzles out fast. But it's not looking that way. The mere fact that what they are doing in china is international news, says it's a really big problem. The kind that cannot be covered up.

And it's already here.

Or it's really a false flag, creating an excuse to round up all the homeless in Cali?
Think about it. Lets watch and see what happens next

[summit]

China has quarantined as many people as if the USA had quarantined its 50 largest cities.

[mcski]

[QUOTE=old goat;5875134
In the meantime I think Contagion is the best disease-that-threatens-to--wipe-out-the-world movie.[/QUOTE]

Contagion was a great flick. You knew that shit was serious when not even Kate Winslet could survive. Really made you think though about how lucky we’ve had it in the last 100 years

[old goat]

This afternoon, I ran a epidemological model sim using the 2009 H1N1 model except I tweaked the variables for what data we have on 2019nCoV. The model run infected 25% of the US and 31% of the world and the pandemic died out after 6mo under the model's assumptions which I'd consider worst case, if I did it right. Now apply the Chinese CFR to it and that's a few million dead. Now while it is some remarkable simulation, it is just one model run with imperfect data and most of all didn't model public health interventions (other than mild air travel restrictions) which are our the number one adjunct to stop the spread until we develop antivirals and vaccines.

That said, ALL the numbers are bullshit because they are based on what the Chinese are telling us. Despite all the plaudits they are getting for their transparency, I don't believe them.

Today I just started reading The Great Influenza (Barry).

Most of us just post on TGR when we want to goof off at work.

[klauss]

been searching the webs too much for news on this and Theraflu is all over my ad feeds now. their vid has some guy coughing with the flu on an airlpane