Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[pureantigravity]

I'll take over 40K. Likely north of 50K. We're running 1500 dead per day, 28 days to Christmas, that makes 42K. Also, the recent 4x cases has only produced 2x deaths to date, so it's reasonable to expect daily dying doubling to 3000ish by Christmas. Do I hear a bid for 60K? That's my call - 60K+ and total above 320K.

Sorry. On the plus side, there will still be about 340 million of us on Santa's list.

What is the usual expected death rate (all causes)?

[bigdude2468]

This was reported yesterday.

New CDC research says that only a small fraction of Americans who have caught COVID-19 actually received a diagnosis with a coronavirus test.

There have been 13 million confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US so far, but the CDC estimates that the actual figure is much higher.

The CDC says that as many as 100 million Americans have been infected by the novel coronavirus so far.


I understand how herd immunity works to end a pandemic but is there not some benefit in slowing the spread if 30% of the population have already had it?

[Harry]

^^^ (pointing at Pure Gravity, don’t want to quote him) Why don’t you tell us ? You seem to be an expert on everything else so I am surprised you don’t know this basic info.


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[subtle plague]

This was reported yesterday.

New CDC research says that only a small fraction of Americans who have caught COVID-19 actually received a diagnosis with a coronavirus test.

There have been 13 million confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US so far, but the CDC estimates that the actual figure is much higher.

The CDC says that as many as 100 million Americans have been infected by the novel coronavirus so far.


I understand how herd immunity works to end a pandemic but is there not some benefit in slowing the spread if 30% of the population have already had it?

Well slower exponential growth is still exopential. But yeah 30% should be noticeable (maybe they are and that's why the rates aren't higher.. Who knows, especially since the people who get it first are mostly very active and cannot become vectors anymore ). Realistically though.. I'd say you guys are somewhere in between the numbers. Somewhere between 30 and 50million maybe.

[Skidog]

They went so far as to say that only the Merck MMR II was effectively protective, which I found interesting and not unbelievable.
The way the numbers corresponded to the severity of symptoms was really interesting, insinuating older people have lost titers over time.
That makes me think that within a couple weeks of getting the vax, it would quite possibly be very prophylactic.
My doctor is very interested in information like this as he's had family and friends get infected.
I printed the article and am dropping it off at his office for him cause I want his take.
Indeed, it is very interesting.

Thought you already got a home cooked vax? Aren't you all covered now?

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[old goat]

They went so far as to say that only the Merck MMR II was effectively protective, which I found interesting and not unbelievable.
The way the numbers corresponded to the severity of symptoms was really interesting, insinuating older people have lost titers over time.
That makes me think that within a couple weeks of getting the vax, it would quite possibly be very prophylactic.
My doctor is very interested in information like this as he's had family and friends get infected.
I printed the article and am dropping it off at his office for him cause I want his take.
Indeed, it is very interesting.

Except that there was no correlation between age and severity of infection, so we don't know if people's titers fell with time or if perhaps they were never high to begin with. Possibly some people don't respond well to the mumps portion of MMRII. And it may not be that the mumps antibodies are protective. The alternative is that responding poorly to mumps vaccine is just a predictor of a poor immune response to covid infection.

Also--there is no evidence in this study that MMRII prevents you from getting Covid--all the subjects in the study had had Covid. So if you get the shot you still could be an asymptomatic carrier.

If your doctor feels it's safe for you to be vaccinated I would still strongly advise you to behave as if you have no immunity, unless someone does a prospective trial to show that MMRII is actually protective. I don't see anyone spending the money to do such a study with at least Covid vaccines about to hit the market.

[summit]

This was reported yesterday.

New CDC research says that only a small fraction of Americans who have caught COVID-19 actually received a diagnosis with a coronavirus test.

There have been 13 million confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US so far, but the CDC estimates that the actual figure is much higher.

The CDC says that as many as 100 million Americans have been infected by the novel coronavirus so far.


I understand how herd immunity works to end a pandemic but is there not some benefit in slowing the spread if 30% of the population have already had it?

100 million? No. I wish. I wish because that would mean that m&m for this disease is much lower than it actually is. Unfortunately, not the case.

Nah the seroprevalence study showed <10% at 42 of 49 sufficiently reporting test stations across 50 states. Data suggest maybe ~30-35 million which tracks well with the other data we have about rates of nondetected cases due to asymptomatic infection and also periods where there was widespread inability to test many or most of those who were suspected of having the disease (basically most people who weren't hospital sick prior to May).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...b-surveys.html
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2773576

[Mofro261]

Early on it was between 12:1-8:1 cases:confirmed.
Since then test capacity has increased somewhere around 6X, and the ratio is likely around 3-4:1 currently, 80M is not a stretch.


For comparison the US typically has 50-70 M flu cases each year.

[funkendrenchman]

I just listened to John Delaney advocating for a $1500 stimulus tied to getting vaccinated. I like the idea.

[concretejungle]

I just listened to John Delaney advocating for a $1500 stimulus tied to getting vaccinated. I like the idea.

I'm sure there are downsides to that but I like the idea. So...nfw that happens.

[Falcon3]

I just listened to John Delaney advocating for a $1500 stimulus tied to getting vaccinated. I like the idea.

Some might find this a stretch, but it's really no different than existing fiscal/monetary policy.

Taxes are merely vehicles for the government encouraging certain behaviors. (For some reason) the government wants people to have children, so they give tax credits for children. Gov recognizes the benefit to people saving for retirement so they won't have social calamity with millions of old people in poverty, so they create tax-free vehicles for retirement savings.

This is the same. The government should recognize that defeating the coronavirus is of utmost concern to the USA's long-term financial stability/political outcomes, so tying fiscal stimulus to mitigation measures makes a lot of sense.

[wooley12]

Nice opinion, man. Half of it makes has a ring of truth. IMO. The social engineering is a not the reason for an income tax is the turkey. Sugar tax is the drippings.

[Rasputin]

Michael Mina has an article in the latest issue of Time. Of course, for those following this thread, and those seeking solutions to the pandemic this is not new, but it is good to see it coming up in slow mainstream media.

Widespread and frequent rapid antigen testing (public health screening to suppress outbreaks) is the best possible tool we have at our disposal today—and we are not using it.

It would significantly reduce the spread of the virus without having to shut down the country again—and if we act today, could allow us to see our loved ones, go back to school and work, and travel—all before Christmas.

Antigen tests are “contagiousness” tests. They are extremely effective (>98% sensitive compared to the typically used PCR test) in detecting COVID-19 when individuals are most contagious. Paper-strip antigen tests are inexpensive, simple to manufacture, give results within minutes, and can be used within the privacy of our own home—the latter is immensely important for many people across the U.S.

[KQ]

What is the usual expected death rate (all causes)?

I call BS every time someone brings up previous known causes of death and tries to use it to temper the number of Covid deaths (not that I'm saying that is why you're asking but if you are, well then BS!). These are deaths over and above what we expect based on historical records. These are people that but for Covid would not be dead (yes of course some may get in a car accident, have a house fire etc. but not at these numbers).

Michael Mina has an article in the latest issue of Time. Of course, for those following this thread, and those seeking solutions to the pandemic this is not new, but it is good to see it coming up in slow mainstream media.

Yes but are people going to isolate? So they test positive but have no symptoms. We can't throw them in jail. They are stubborn and will do what they will do because yanno......

[KQ]

[frorider]

I agree KQ. In a similar vein, the news article stats focus on deaths but not the lingering impacts on organ function.

[MontuckyFried]

So what are the odds that this year sees the highest death toll, regardless of measures taken? Next year COULD be higher if the whole world says "screw it" and goes back to normal, but let's say we all keep pressing forward as we are. Will we see 1/4MM deaths in 2020. Maybe 100K in 2021. 50K in 2022. So on and so forth until it eventually becomes part of our standard cold/flu season.

Have we seen any predictive models regarding this? Probably like 1000 pages ago, so I'm sure I've missed it.

[wooley12]

Highest has come and gone.

[LongShortLong]

So what are the odds that this year sees the highest death toll, regardless of measures taken? Next year COULD be higher if the whole world says "screw it" and goes back to normal, but let's say we all keep pressing forward as we are. Will we see 1/4MM deaths in 2020. Maybe 100K in 2021. 50K in 2022. So on and so forth until it eventually becomes part of our standard cold/flu season.

Have we seen any predictive models regarding this? Probably like 1000 pages ago, so I'm sure I've missed it.

There was a theory that doing nothing would result in Covid becoming just another cold. This assumes that the young, who very rarely die, would also very rarely die when they became old. Or put a different way, our current colds may have been equally deadly when they first emerged. OTOH, Covid seems to trick the immune system into attacking the host.

Looks like we'll all be vaccinated and no one dies. But assume we're not - I can look at data and guess.

The estimates on this page for number infected suggest somewhere between 10 and 30% (Summit, CDC). So a crude guess is that 250,000 could die twice more, or up to 9 times more. Treatment has improved, so maybe less. OTOH, we didn't count the dead well when treatment wasn't as good. Checking data - eyeballing recent graphs, 2% of those diagnosed in September died - so another 13MM infections means 260,000 dead (2%). Testing is falling behind, so CFR may rise. IFR too if lack of diagnosis leads to lack of treatment.

As for folks who postulate low IFRs, look at NYC. 0.3% of them are already dead, and they are seeing cases rise similar to other regions this fall (percentage-wise).

So far, each time our guard's been down, cases have soared. "Screw it" likely overflows the hospitals, causing death from inadequate treatment.

We don't know much about mutation or reinfection yet. Either could mean we continue to get reinfected by a deadly(ish) virus. We also might discover an effective outpatient treatment removing the deadly. I plan for a poke in the arm.

Summary. A few hundred thousand (*edit* nee million) a year will die for the next few years slowing when everyone has immunity. Hope the vaccines work. Or the rapid tests. Or the antibody cocktails. Or Australia-style countermeasures. Or something else.

[Meadow Skipper]

A little catch up...

Feeling really downhearted about the sad state of affairs from Covid deniers to people claiming massive voter fraud it's all too much anymore.

I know, me too. These times...

It's a tepid consolation, but to most of us, the bullshit is obvious. Find solace in the small things.

This place helps on occasion.

I just listened to John Delaney advocating for a $1500 stimulus tied to getting vaccinated.

I like the idea I'm sure there are downsides to that but I like the idea. So...nfw that happens.

Right?

[rideit]

That would be the intersection where “MUH FREEDOMS!” And “JUST SAY NO TO SOCIALISM” collide.

[Rideski]

Summary. A few hundred million a year will die for the next few years

Did you miss a decimal point? Or a comma?

[splat]

That would be the intersection where “MUH FREEDOMS!” And “JUST SAY NO TO SOCIALISM” collide.

I haven't heard of a single mutherfukker who sent back the republican to socialism conversion check even though the thought of socialism is so repulsive to people who have no clue what fascism is.

[PB]

I haven't heard of a single mutherfukker who sent back the republican to socialism conversion check even though the thought of socialism is so repulsive to people who have no clue what fascism is.

You're under reacting, son; time to step it up.

[LongShortLong]

Did you miss a decimal point? Or a comma?

Fixed. A few hundred thousand per year in the US.