Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[abraham]

R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots. And that's just the sort of miracle said idiots think will happen for them with zero societal shift.

Fuck that's a stark way to put it. Thanks.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

This will sound bad, but the real problem is that people aren’t dying. We’re better at caring for COVID cases and keeping them alive. We have a few people that have been on a ventilator for weeks now and are getting trachs because they’ve been intubated too long. It’s more of a burden than if they just died. The general public only understands death and can’t grasp that caring for these COVID cases is harder on everyone. It really is a Catch-22 with our under educated ignorant population.


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[char_]

Sounds like the US is following the Great Barrington Declaration; allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk.

https://gbdeclaration.org/

Only US is not really doing much to protect those at higher risk. Counterpoint today in the NYTimes; Public health experts are alarmed by a ‘herd immunity’ theory endorsed by Trump officials:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10...rump-officials

This might be an okay strategy if it came with a coordinated federal response, clear communication, reasonable precautions like social distancing and masking, PPE fitting and distribution and economic support to the vulnerable, etc.

Instead we have an uncoordinated shitshow.

I don't see all of these herd immunity touting people setting up superspreader events so they can guinea pig this idea. I'm mean, unless you count the Whitehouse.

[The AD]

I don't see all of these herd immunity touting people setting up superspreader events so they can guinea pig this idea.

Look harder. There have been some.

[huckbucket]

This will sound bad, but the real problem is that people aren’t dying. We’re better at caring for COVID cases and keeping them alive. We have a few people that have been on a ventilator for weeks now and are getting trachs because they’ve been intubated too long. It’s more of a burden than if they just died. The general public only understands death and can’t grasp that caring for these COVID cases is harder on everyone. It really is a Catch-22 with our under educated ignorant population.

Totally disagree. The worldwide number is 1.1 million dead. 1.1 fucking million people. Today. What's that number in 12 months? 2 million? We need a bigger number to incite action? Key-rist! The real problem is that people can't think compassionately about their (global and local) neighbors because we're always looking out for number one.

[XXX-er]

T. The general public only understands death

It really is a Catch-22 with our under educated ignorant population.

yeah quality of life, you could be talking about Covid OR the obesity problem

[altasnob]

Brits are starting vaccine challenge trials
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...bec_story.html
The first phase of the trial will be giving different doses of virus to young, healthy, on-vaccinated quarantined volunteers to identify the minimum viral load needed to cause infection.
The second phase will test different vaccines. This part will start in late spring--presumably after there are already vaccines already in use.

Why don't we start doing this in the US? I realize there are ethical implications to purposely infecting people with the virus, but that is essentially what our government is doing to us right now without our consent. Start getting this ball rolling worldwide.

[The AD]

Totally disagree. The worldwide number is 1.1 million dead. 1.1 fucking million people. Today. What's that number in 12 months? 2 million? We need a bigger number to incite action? Key-rist! The real problem is that people can't think compassionately about their (global and local) neighbors because we're always looking out for number one.

It's a lot of people in raw numbers, but when you consider there are close to 8 billion people on Earth it's peanuts. The upshot is that most people still don't personally know anyone who has died due to COVID.

[altasnob]

There is none in the history of humanity. Any and all diseases to be snuffed from circulation in people have done so by isolation or vaccination.

Isn't there some truth that coronaviruses and influenzas currently in circulation likely started out much more deadly and with time, became less deadly? In other words, while these viruses were not eliminated from earth, they did become tolerable by doing absolutely nothing?

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Totally disagree. The worldwide number is 1.1 million dead. 1.1 fucking million people. Today. What's that number in 12 months? 2 million? We need a bigger number to incite action? Key-rist! The real problem is that people can't think compassionately about their (global and local) neighbors because we're always looking out for number one.

I totally agree with you, but the vast majority of people are too selfish and ignorant to understand that deaths aren’t the only metric that matters. I constantly hear, even from coworkers, that it’s not that bad because deaths aren’t too bad. Meanwhile we’re doing a trach on a patient that’s been intubated for 15 days because of a raging COVID infection. It’s bad and will get worse.

Everything that was predicted about this pandemic has come true. Spikes after relaxing restrictions and large gatherings, a resurgence in the fall, etc.

We’re too myopic and selfish to see this though.


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[altasnob]

R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots.

If SARS was an infectious and less-deadly as COVID-19, it would have likely become endemic just like COVID-19. Modern humanity has never encountered a virus with the same traits as COVID-19.

[jono]

But, that's not herd immunity.

Isn't it? If R0 falls below 1 and the disease dies out then for that herd at that time the level of immunity was adequate. The point being, R0 changes based on many factors and the idiots keep acting like individual immunity is the only one that matters when in reality it might be the least important. It certainly should be the least important, because of all the factors it's the one that comes with the biggest downsides.

At the extreme, of course, a disease with a miniscule spread might actually have nothing whatsoever to do with individual immunity numbers, but even SARS probably wasn't that small. In the context of COVID-19 individual immunity will obviously play some role, so herd immunity can be defined as R0<1. Given that, any covidiot that thinks herd immunity is best achieved by maximizing R0 has already spent too much time practicing doublethink.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Isn't there some truth that coronaviruses and influenzas currently in circulation likely started out much more deadly and with time, became less deadly? In other words, while these viruses were not eliminated from earth, they did become tolerable by doing absolutely nothing?

Even coughing into your elbow and washing your hands are a form of mitigation(isolation). Influenzas aren’t less deadly we are just better at treating the sickness they cause.


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[The AD]

Even coughing into your elbow and washing your hands are a form of mitigation(isolation). Influenzas aren’t less deadly we are just better at treating the sickness they cause.

Is this all there is to it or have humans built up some modicum of immunity due to exposure to flu viruses over hundreds of years?

[altasnob]

EInfluenzas aren’t less deadly we are just better at treating the sickness they cause. TGR Forums

Swine flu H1N1 became less deadly over time, correct? From the cdc:

"(H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, and cause illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year."

[XXX-er]

if no body had done anything i wonder what the death tolls would be world wide ?

I got the flu shot yesturday, one of the first in town

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Swine flu H1N1 became less deadly over time, correct? From the cdc:

"(H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, and cause illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year."

Where does it say it became less deadly?

We have influenza outbreaks every year, we have vaccines that work and/or mitigate the effects of illness along with better therapeutic treatment and things like isolating coughs and hand washing. People still get seasonal influenza and require hospitalization and some die.

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[bigdude2468]

Here are US influenza deaths for the past nine flu seasons.

2010-2011 37,000
2011-2012 12,000
2012-2013 43,000
2013-2014 38,000
2014-2015 51,000
2015-2016 23,000
2016-2017 38,000
2017 -2018 61,000
2018-2019 34,157

[Dantheman]

Isn't it? If R0 falls below 1 and the disease dies out then for that herd at that time the level of immunity was adequate. The point being, R0 changes based on many factors and the idiots keep acting like individual immunity is the only one that matters when in reality it might be the least important. It certainly should be the least important, because of all the factors it's the one that comes with the biggest downsides.

At the extreme, of course, a disease with a miniscule spread might actually have nothing whatsoever to do with individual immunity numbers, but even SARS probably wasn't that small. In the context of COVID-19 individual immunity will obviously play some role, so herd immunity can be defined as R0<1. Given that, any covidiot that thinks herd immunity is best achieved by maximizing R0 has already spent too much time practicing doublethink.

Not an immunologist, but the definition of herd immunity is not simply R0<1. Herd immunity only refers to a sufficient percentage of individuals becoming immune to a virus through vaccination or previous infection. SARS was not contained through herd immunity, neither are Ebola outbreaks.

[jono]

Not an immunologist, but the definition of herd immunity is not simply R0<1. Herd immunity only refers to a sufficient percentage of individuals becoming immune to a virus through vaccination or previous infection. SARS was not contained through herd immunity, neither are Ebola outbreaks.

Obviously that's not the whole definition of herd immunity, but if R0>1 you have exponential growth, aka not herd immunity. It's been illustrated in several articles discussed here in the past that the level of personal immunity in a population required to achieve R0<1 varies depending on numerous factors. In an extremely cautious/low contact society COVID might achieve herd immunity with as little as 20% infection rates for Americans to achieve that while changing nothing about our lifestyles (ha) we would need ~70%.

R0<1 means outbreaks die out. So it certainly feels like cheating to call all cases of R0<1 "herd immunity" but in the case of this disease I think that definition serves the discussion better, since we're definitely not talking about a disease with zero immunity in the population. If we could simply start from that common understanding I think the discussion would be less speculative.

[bodywhomper]

FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...h.guml01vbysm4

[KQ]

So apparently the first lady didn't rank high enough to get the same treatment of her husband and Chris Christie.

Melania Trump cancels plans to attend Tuesday rally citing Covid recovery

(CNN)Melania Trump is canceling her first campaign appearance in months because she is not feeling well as she continues to recover from Covid-19.

She had been set to join President Donald Trump's rally in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, but she has decided not to go.

"Mrs. Trump continues to feel better every day following her recovery from Covid-19, but with a lingering cough, and out of an abundance of caution, she will not be traveling today," said Stephanie Grisham, the first lady's chief of staff.

[old goat]

It's been stated many times that herd immunity has never been achieved without a vaccine, but unfortunately there's a qualifier that gets left off: it's never happened once a disease was endemic. Diseases with minimal spread can die out very easily. R0 shrank to 0 for SARS thanks largely to societal precautions coming before it had a chance to reach any of the real idiots. And that's just the sort of miracle said idiots think will happen for them with zero societal shift.

I know that's the standard explanation for what happened with SARS--that it disappeared because of epidemiological measures. I wonder if there isn't a virological explanation--but I'm neither a virologist nor and epidemiologist so pure unfounded speculation on my part. There is one known biologic difference that I know of--much longer period of asymptomatic spread for SARS-CoV-2. (Does SARS have any significant asymptomatic spread?)

SARS-CoV-2 seems to have hit the sweet spot for an epidemic. If it were as deadly as SARS everyone would understand the need for strict control measures. If it were no more deadly than the flu we could go about our lives with an acceptable mortality, especially if, like the flu, it didn't have long term sequelae. But it's rate of spread and mortality are such that effective control measures are too draconian while going about our lives is too deadly.

Almost seems like it was designed . . . I'd better stop before I go down the conspiracy theory rat hole.

[Lone Star]

^^^^ you might have heard of the ideas Charles Darwin and the next seven generations of his colleagues have been working on?

FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e...h.guml01vbysm4

THIS IS AWESOME. The perfect amount of technical for a nerd that is not a physicist or doctor.

[4matic]

North Dakota

Please be advised: NDDoH and local public health units are currently experiencing a backlog of COVID-19 case investigations, causing a delay in calls. If you have tested positive for COVID-19, please isolate and inform any close contacts you've had that they should get tested!