Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[up an down]

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/t...-the-poor.html......read about the details of the Republic plan...it is not $1200 for everyone,.............Senate Republicans have now released their hotly anticipated proposal to send families direct cash payments, as part of a wider economic aid package aimed at combating the coronavirus crisis. And hoo boy is it disappointing.

Under the plan, the government would provide households an early tax rebate worth up to $1,200 for an individual or $2,400 for a married couple, with an extra $500 for each of their children. (So far, so good). The payments will be based on a household’s 2018 tax return, or if it didn’t submit one, their 2019 filing.

But the checks will shrink for both low and high earners. Americans with little to no tax liability (aka, poor folks) will only receive a minimum payment of $600, unless they earned less than $2,500, in which case they get zilch. Low-wage workers who don’t have a federal tax return for 2018 or 2019—adults generally aren’t required to file one they if earn less than the standard deduction—also won’t qualify for the early rebate. (They could still get it next year if they file taxes for 2020, but by that time it will be a bit late.) Meanwhile, the payments phase down for workers who make more than $75,000 and drop to zero for those making $99,000 and above (double those numbers for joint filers).

[ridinshockgun]

There are 4 times as many cases in the NYC metro area as there are in the state of Washington currently. Is it really that much more prevalent there, or is Cuomo actually being effective at increasing testing availability while Inslee flaps his hands and squawks like a panicky nerd?

Aren't there are more people just in NYC than the entire state of Washington. The close confines are just on a different scale. So once it cuts loose in NYC this would be completely predictable.

[jono]

We already have a blueprint for how America gets back to work from countries who were better prepared:

- Regular, even daily, testing for health care workers

- More general testing.* That doesn’t mean testing everyone but we need widespread testing so people can have confidence the virus is under control

- Antibody testing. Testing for antibodies will let people know if they had the disease and recovered. These people are effectively like control rods in a nuclear reactor, able to go about their lives without risk of spreading the virus

- In a nutshell, testing and tracing buys time for better treatments or even a vaccine

- There other steps too, once masks become available, policies like “no mask no entry” or temperature checks before entering public buildings

- If we get our act together people can return to work in a month or two. Countries that were prepared are already return to work


*A prominent talking point here originated with the White House that testing has a 50-80% false positive rate but that’s propaganda based on studies documenting early faulty Chinese diagnostic testing. The current W.H.O. and current C.D.C. tests are excellent.

Well said. The ironing of arguing inaccuracy of tests should be funny any other time: the same people whose narrative suffers from slow test rollouts are also the ones who could have accepted good tests sooner. Bullshit arguing against their own bullshit.

[Benny Profane]

They may call themselves communists. However they have strayed pretty far from Marx and Engels. They are just another totalitarian state.

Well, yeah, sure, I should have put communists in quotes or italics. But, whatever it is, it's working, and I'll bet we're even further down the ladder of esteem in a year or two than we were just a few months ago, which was pretty damn low.

[Danno]

You never know what’s really going on. Maybe she has to drive her mom to and from chemo she also pays for. If she gets it, mom’s dead. If she doesn’t have an income, mom’s dead.

That stuff is hidden all around us. This scenario is going to be like a black light in a hotel room for the many hidden areas of fragility in this society.

I want us to break hard toward a robust comprehensive social safety net, but I think this society of rubes will break hard toward guns and isolationism and hoarding.

quoted for truths and poignancy. second paragraph in particular.

[XXX-er]

you gota worry about them communists up narth eh

universal HC has squeezed out the insurance companies, and the weed grows free range on the highway shoulders

its un american

[toast2266]

- Antibody testing. Testing for antibodies will let people know if they had the disease and recovered. These people are effectively like control rods in a nuclear reactor, able to go about their lives without risk of spreading the virus

If people have had the disease and have recovered, can they still be a vector for transmission? Or does the disease not "stick" to them or survive on them long enough to spread to others?

[My Pet Powder Goat]

its un american

Lucky you!


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[LeeLau]

There are 4 times as many cases in the NYC metro area as there are in the state of Washington currently. Is it really that much more prevalent there, or is Cuomo actually being effective at increasing testing availability while Inslee flaps his hands and squawks like a panicky nerd?

https://ncov2019.live/

NY 5637. WA 1376

Cases per million pop ( case density)

NY 275 WA 241

IT 400+ (healthcare system breaking down)

Both states have a 17% rate of case increase (based on cases tested) implying a double every 5 days

[glademaster]

Aren't there are more people just in NYC than the entire state of Washington. The close confines are just on a different scale. So once it cuts loose in NYC this would be completely predictable.

Oh yeah, because the greater Seattle metro area isn't densely populated. The testing capacity out here is pathetic. New York can process 7500 tests per day, and we're bragging about having a handful of driveup facilities that case test 50(!!!) people per day.

[pepperdawg]

Just heard the Olympics are still on? WTF...

[Benny Profane]

You never know what’s really going on. Maybe she has to drive her mom to and from chemo she also pays for. If she gets it, mom’s dead. If she doesn’t have an income, mom’s dead.

That stuff is hidden all around us. This scenario is going to be like a black light in a hotel room for the many hidden areas of fragility in this society.

I want us to break hard toward a robust comprehensive social safety net, but I think this society of rubes will break hard toward guns and isolationism and hoarding.

Hey, the Democrats are gearing up to campaign for a very old, senile, corporate and military owned man for the alternative to Orange Clown, because there's no way they want a candidate who advocates for something we absolutely need right now at this very moment, universal health care. The rich are hoarding and escaping to second homes, and the ten percent will do anything to get stocks back up. Most are fucked for another ten years.

[schuss]

If people have had the disease and have recovered, can they still be a vector for transmission? Or does the disease not "stick" to them or survive on them long enough to spread to others?

To some extent, it may not matter, as you can release people with antibodies to do things immediately if the numbers are high enough. Alternatively, if they're the deep minority, you keep them home for the known period of contagiousness. Either way, you need the data on who does, does not or has had it.
That's what enables normalcy to return to an extent. You likely still need strict controls/hours around senior housing and access.

[MultiVerse]

^ Yep, and the virus is mostly spread from people breathing out or coughing droplets which remain airborne for a limited time and then fall on surfaces. Scientists aren't certain people who recovered have total immunity but they think those people have short term immunity and won't spread the disease at least in the short term.

[Ottime]

I noticed the CA order doesn't really say anything about going outside for exercise nor does it say that parks are going to close.

It is the same order as the Bay Area counties.

Outdoor recreation and exercise are essential activity. You need to remain at least 6’ away from non household members.

You can still buy liquor. Cause CA is not a Puritan state. If this happens in Mass or NH, they are fucked as liquor is sold in separate stores and likely will not be considered essential.

Auto repair, health workers, restaurants for take out or deliver only, household supplies, hardware all open.

State Parks are still open. Visitor Centers are closed.

[toast2266]

To some extent, it may not matter, as you can release people with antibodies to do things immediately if the numbers are high enough. Alternatively, if they're the deep minority, you keep them home for the known period of contagiousness. Either way, you need the data on who does, does not or has had it.
That's what enables normalcy to return to an extent. You likely still need strict controls/hours around senior housing and access.

^ Yep, and the virus is mostly spread from people breathing out or coughing droplets which remain airborne for a limited time and then fall on surfaces. Scientists aren't certain people who recovered have total immunity but they think those people have short term immunity and won't spread the disease at least in the short term.

Cool, that all makes sense.

Kinda seems like a chicken and egg scenario. Hopefully there's enough people with antibodies that can get society back up and running, but that'd presumably mean all of those people already had the disease, which means a lot of other people are probably in bad shape / dead. Alternatively, if people with antibodies are a deep minority, that would suggest that the whole thing had mostly blown over. But then most of the population doesn't have any immunity for wave 2.

But yeah, good to know that people with antibodies aren't a high concern for continued spreading of the disease.

[huckbucket]

*A prominent talking point here originated with the White House that testing has a 50-80% false positive rate but that’s propaganda based on studies documenting early faulty Chinese diagnostic tests. The current W.H.O. and current CDC tests are excellent.

I've been desperately searching for this data. Can you please link it? Specifically the performance data for the WHO and CDC assays. Thx.

[SirVicSmasher]

If people have had the disease and have recovered, can they still be a vector for transmission? Or does the disease not "stick" to them or survive on them long enough to spread to others?

I read a small study in china that said in some cases yes some patients still test positive after being recovered. I believe they tested negative, went home into quarantine and days or weeks later tested positive again after recovering testing negative and quarantining after recovery. It was a small number of patients in this study so it was somewhat inconclusive but this whole ordeal is crazy how much conflicting information there is.

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[Ski to Be]

I believe particularly in Washington State there are far more cases than reported due to it being around longer and almost no testing. We need a viral antibody test that the general population can take and those that recovered can reengage and keep society running. Do any of you in the know have any idea how long it takes to make an antibody blood test available ?

[The AD]

Oh yeah, because the greater Seattle metro area isn't densely populated. The testing capacity out here is pathetic. New York can process 7500 tests per day, and we're bragging about having a handful of driveup facilities that case test 50(!!!) people per day.

More testing is needed, but pretty sure Washington state has tested more people so far than any other state, but I can't find the stats.

edit: here's a good site for testing stats https://covidtracking.com/data/ NY has tested 22K and WA has tested 20K. CA less than 10K so far, although there's a note that only positives are reported regularly.

[liv2ski]

I want us to break hard toward a robust comprehensive social safety net, but I think this society of rubes will break hard toward guns and isolationism and hoarding.

Agreed, it is very disheartening that people vote against their best interests out of misplaced ideals and ignorance.

[glademaster]

As I said last page, the availability of testing in this state is a fucking outrage given how widespread it is likely to be. Between that simpering pansy Inslee and local levels of government being choked with Trump-rimming skeptics, it's a complete and total shitshow.

[dunfree]

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/t...-the-poor.html......read about the details of the Republic plan...it is not $1200 for everyone,.............Senate Republicans have now released their hotly anticipated proposal to send families direct cash payments, as part of a wider economic aid package aimed at combating the coronavirus crisis. And hoo boy is it disappointing.

Under the plan, the government would provide households an early tax rebate worth up to $1,200 for an individual or $2,400 for a married couple, with an extra $500 for each of their children. (So far, so good). The payments will be based on a household’s 2018 tax return, or if it didn’t submit one, their 2019 filing.

But the checks will shrink for both low and high earners. Americans with little to no tax liability (aka, poor folks) will only receive a minimum payment of $600, unless they earned less than $2,500, in which case they get zilch. Low-wage workers who don’t have a federal tax return for 2018 or 2019—adults generally aren’t required to file one they if earn less than the standard deduction—also won’t qualify for the early rebate. (They could still get it next year if they file taxes for 2020, but by that time it will be a bit late.) Meanwhile, the payments phase down for workers who make more than $75,000 and drop to zero for those making $99,000 and above (double those numbers for joint filers).

give the most to the people who’ll deploy it the least. So stupid.

[glademaster]

More testing is needed, but pretty sure Washington state has tested more people so far than any other state, but I can't find the stats.

That may have been true a week ago, but New York has tested more people since Monday than Washington and California combined.

[huckbucket]

If people have had the disease and have recovered, can they still be a vector for transmission? Or does the disease not "stick" to them or survive on them long enough to spread to others?

The serologic assay (presence of antibodies) will not displace the PCR assay (presence of virus) as one can be positive for both. So, returning to work will/should/may requires a combination of positive for antibodies and negative for virus suggesting that you've been infected and are no longer infectious.