Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[PNWbrit]

Seriously, if I try to go get tested tomorrow with non debilitating symptoms will I be turned away?

Yes.

[summit]

Seriously, if I try to go get tested tomorrow with non debilitating symptoms will I be turned away?

See my post above

[Rideski]

Quoting so I can more easily cut and paste and send to friends.

In response to a COVID denier whose argument that infection rate and fatalities would be "statistically insignificant" I modelled WA state and King County's numbers. Please poke holes in my back-of-the envelope calcs

Calculations were sourced

- CDC (hover mouse over geog area)

- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - data from national centres

- https://cov2019.info/ - scrapes from national centres and news real-time

WA state
On March 14 - 643 cases
Today March 18 - 1012 cases

King County

March 14- 388
March 18 - 518

So we have a double every 4.5 days implying a case increase rate of 17% per day
At that rate "only" 500k WA state residents will be infected in 45 days.

At 400 cases per 1M of population the healthcare system breaks down if we take Italy as an example

Marc 14 - MWA state 135 per 1m. Time to breakdown. 9 days
Marc 14 - King County 235 per 1m. Time to breakdown. 5.5 days

This assumes that WA state is unprepared. I doubt that since there's been time to react so the healthcare time to breakdown may be higher than the Italy level of 400 per 1m population

Hospitalizations

With a 4.5 day doubling, 500K WA state residents have cases in 45 days ( assuming that the Covid deniers of the world have their say; that mitigation measures are therefor not optimal, and therefore that the rate of increase holds at 17%). By way of a NPR poll 56% of Americans believe that COVID is not a big deal and that the mitigation efforts are overblown so that seems to be a reasonable assumption.

Blending the Imperial college numbers and doing a weighted average in my head from 0 - 50; 3.2% require hospitalization (median age of WA state is 38 years old)

So that's 8,000 hospitalizations of 0-50 years old

Above 50 years old lets' deploy some rough math and weight the average of hospitalizations at 16%.

So that's 40,000 hospitalizations.

Total is 48000 additional hospitalizations. Let's look at how many beds there are to spare in WA state per the
NYTimes. Apparently the system will need another 188% additional beds. That's 2.7x additional hospital beds needed in 45 days.

Data re hospitalizations from this chart from this peer-reviewed study https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Attachment 321031

[AK47bp]

Seriously, if I try to go get tested tomorrow with non debilitating symptoms will I be turned away?

Definitely
I should say, if you weren’t exposed.


We are only testing symptomatic employees if they had an exposure to Covid. Exposure mean close contact without PPE to a positive person

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[KQ]

Oops. Richland WA (Tri-cities) just had their first death.

An undiagnosed case at a retirement home with two other potential cases hospitalized. Cue Kirkland part II.

[The SnowShow]

Other treatment testing going on:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...-symptoms.html

[idahospud]

What's the collective opinion on employers who think that COVID 19 is "overblown" and don't want to grant the ability to work remotely without a huge fight?

Fuck 'em ... or fuck 'em?

[summit]

In response to a COVID denier whose argument that infection rate and fatalities would be "statistically insignificant" I modelled WA state and King County's numbers. Please poke holes in my back-of-the envelope calcs

Calculations were sourced

- CDC (hover mouse over geog area)

- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - data from national centres

- https://cov2019.info/ - scrapes from national centres and news real-time

WA state
On March 14 - 643 cases
Today March 18 - 1012 cases

King County

March 14- 388
March 18 - 518

So we have a double every 4.5 days implying a case increase rate of 17% per day
At that rate "only" 500k WA state residents will be infected in 45 days.

At 400 cases per 1M of population the healthcare system breaks down if we take Italy as an example

Marc 14 - MWA state 135 per 1m. Time to breakdown. 9 days
Marc 14 - King County 235 per 1m. Time to breakdown. 5.5 days

This assumes that WA state is unprepared. I doubt that since there's been time to react so the healthcare time to breakdown may be higher than the Italy level of 400 per 1m population

Hospitalizations

With a 4.5 day doubling, 500K WA state residents have cases in 45 days ( assuming that the Covid deniers of the world have their say; that mitigation measures are therefor not optimal, and therefore that the rate of increase holds at 17%). By way of a NPR poll 56% of Americans believe that COVID is not a big deal and that the mitigation efforts are overblown so that seems to be a reasonable assumption.

Blending the Imperial college numbers and doing a weighted average in my head from 0 - 50; 3.2% require hospitalization (median age of WA state is 38 years old)

So that's 8,000 hospitalizations of 0-50 years old

Above 50 years old lets' deploy some rough math and weight the average of hospitalizations at 16%.

So that's 40,000 hospitalizations.

Total is 48000 additional hospitalizations. Let's look at how many beds there are to spare in WA state per the
NYTimes. Apparently the system will need another 188% additional beds. That's 2.7x additional hospital beds needed in 45 days.

Data re hospitalizations from this chart from this peer-reviewed study https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

Attachment 321031

I'm ont in a mental state to delve much except but two things for you
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...8Q0FY/htmlview

And if you are dedicated,
http://www.gleamviz.org/
is what i used, modifying the H1N1pdm09 model and asusmptions to predict it could kill up to a few million american back in January
you could update with better assumptions on r0 asymptomatic and symptomatic travelers
If you don't want to get fancy there is this very basic tool http://reed-frostepi.sourceforge.net/

[AK47bp]

Sad one.

42yr old single mother of 6, cancer survivor.


http://komonews.com/news/coronavirus...ovid-19-victim


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[SirVicSmasher]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/yo...GEB?li=BBnb7Kz

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[The AD]

The results are based on existing data so they may not be robust but it looks like the virus prefers cool and dry conditions. Specifically between 11°C to 25°C (52°F - 77°F).

If this is true then Seattle is especially fucked. That's going to be the weather most of the time between now and December.

Although I still don't understand why a virus that lives in the human body at approx. 100 degrees Fahrenheit prefers cool conditions. Makes no sense to me.

[Ottime]

Well, it was. :shrug:

Has anyone else noticed the few cars on the road are driving like Mad Max?

I had to run to my office to get something and while the roads were dead the drivers I did see were meandering in and out of lanes, lights and stop signs were optional and even saw a guy bust a U turn for no reason across 6 lanes of traffic without so much as looking over his shoulder.

Actually, yes. The driving today was horrendous. Cyclists as well. Has some chick biking down the middle of the road, no hands, weaving all over the pace. Great time to get hit by a mad max driver.

[Cono Este]

Seriously, if I try to go get tested tomorrow with non debilitating symptoms will I be turned away?

There was a business woman here in town that came home fromSpain with flu like symptoms and even her company stepped up to pay for the test. The hospital sat her in the waiting room, with everyone else, before telling her she had to call the state health dept, in the end she got no test and she checked into a hotel to self quarantine because she had kids at home. Who will get the room after her?

I wouldn’t go to the hospital unless I was already half dead.


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[scrublover]

Because the governor went down there with that national guard to mass test.

While we wait 5-6 days for results on ICU patients and burn through PPE

We are running out of PPE

What he said.

[DBdude]

Probably going to out live us all. Country is cut off.


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Oy

North Korea is not cut off from China


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[Bozo T. Clown]

I'm ont in a mental state to delve much except but two things for you
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...8Q0FY/htmlview

And if you are dedicated,
http://www.gleamviz.org/
is what i used, modifying the H1N1pdm09 model and asusmptions to predict it could kill up to a few million american back in January
you could update with better assumptions on r0 asymptomatic and symptomatic travelers
If you don't want to get fancy there is this very basic tool http://reed-frostepi.sourceforge.net/

Thanks for the links.

[The AD]

I wouldn’t go to the hospital unless I was already half dead.

Agreed. I was reading a story about the drive-up testing and it sounds like you typically need to first speak to a doctor (and this can be done over the phone) then they will give you a time to drive up where they will swab you and then you're on your way. This seems like the way to do it--if you can.

[Ted Striker]

I witnessed what I think was a drive up testing site being set up here in Bellingham today. If true, this is huge.

[Cono Este]

Agreed. I was reading a story about the drive-up testing and it sounds like you typically need to first speak to a doctor (and this can be done over the phone) then they will give you a time to drive up where they will swab you and then you're on your way. This seems like the way to do it--if you can.

My local hospital set one up. 4-5 days for a result.


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[MultiVerse]

If this is true then Seattle is especially fucked. That's going to be the weather most of the time between now and December.

Although I still don't understand why a virus that lives in the human body at approx. 100 degrees Fahrenheit prefers cool conditions. Makes no sense to me.

The virus is protected by a rubbery coating. If the coating dissolves outside a host the virus is destroyed, if the coating dissolves inside a host the virus can replicate. Absolute humidity is as big a factor as temperature so Seattle might be okay. Although the virus can still spread easily in conditioned environments.

[Ski to Be]

Whats rather disturbing is all of the cases popping up in random nursing homes across Washington state. The actual infection numbers are probably 20 times what is being reported. If indeed that is true then the upside is it may not be as deadly as the initial statistics and hopefully the population achieves a herd immunity more quickly

[Deebased]

I witnessed what I think was a drive up testing site being set up here in Bellingham today. If true, this is huge.

Good News!! Where at?

[KQ]

Here's something to ponder:

What happens when law enforcement personnel get sick?

Coronavirus in NY: Film unit fills in at NYPD precinct after 31 cops call out sick



and to counter with something more positive for those of you with kids at home:

YouTubers Science Mom & Math Dad aiming to make e-learning fun

[scrublover]

There is no way I would show up to work if my fd told me i had to reuse N95s or other disposable mask.

i'm willing (as are most of my co-workers) to re-use my same mask for a shift, but no, not more than that.

we've got two 3m 6001 resp masks at home from when we did a bunch of house stuff, basic organic vapor stuff. ordered a half dozen new p95 filter setups this morning. we'll see if they show up...only ones i found readily available. only plan to have them at home if needed, but figure to take one in with me so if we happen to run out mid-shift, at least i can use it.

[The AD]

The virus is protected by a rubbery coating. If the coating dissolves outside a host then the virus is destroyed, if the coating dissolves inside a host the virus replicates. Absolute humidity is as big a factor as temperture so Seattle might be okay. The virus can still spread easily in conditioned environments.

Interesting. Thanks!