Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[MultiVerse]

today I had trouble in another way smaller thread

I attempted without success uploading an attachment in another thread, too. It was a meta analysis comparison of UK COVID-19 with viral pneumonia in a critical care setting. Some takeaways:

- Viral pneumonia is about 50:50 male-female while COVID-19 is about 70% male
- About 50% of COVID-19 vs 80% of pneumonia survive critical care
- About 80% of COVID-19 vs 40% of pneumonia patients require ventilation
- About 34% of COVID-19 vs 64% of pneumonia patients survive ventilation
- About 48% of COVID-19 vs 19% of pneumonia patients with no severe comorbidities died

Also:

- High body mass (BMI) individuals are at higher risk
- Many are dying due to a cytokine storm: Cytokine Release Syndrome (CRS) + COVID
- The Roche drug Actmera is in US trials to address CRS

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/c...g?format=1000w

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/c...g?format=1000w

[Benny Profane]

Dawned on me that Trump WANTS this week and next week to be full of death. Let's get this death thing over with. Quick. We have to make America great again, again. All of this flu thing is such a hassle.

[Danno]

I’d love to see the model they’ve been hyping claiming 100-240k deaths at the end of this. Not to diminish the seriousness of the overall issue at hand, but I’ve been skeptical of that number from day 1 it was released. Hope I’m right.

have you seen the lily pad demonstration of exponential growth?

[Lone Star]

General Sherman: Nobody has ever laid waste to the South like my Army
CoVid19: Hold my beer

[SKIP IN7RO]

have you seen the lily pad demonstration of exponential growth?

A lily pond, so goes the French riddle, starts with a single lily leaf. Each day the number of leaves will double: 2 leaves on the second day; 4 leaves on the third day; 8 leaves on the fourth day; etc. If the pond is full on the 30th day, on which day is the pond half full?

[Name Redacted]

A lily pond, so goes the French riddle, starts with a single lily leaf. Each day the number of leaves will double: 2 leaves on the second day; 4 leaves on the third day; 8 leaves on the fourth day; etc. If the pond is full on the 30th day, on which day is the pond half full?

29th?

[iceman]

Dawned on me that Trump WANTS this week and next week to be full of death. Let's get this death thing over with. Quick. We have to make America great again, again. All of this flu thing is such a hassle.

You need to stay alive for a while just to fuck with him.

[SKIP IN7RO]

^correct

[Core Shot]

29th?

Exactly.

Insane thought. Isn’t it? And at the same time obvious.

It’s hard for most to understand.

[The AD]

If you were having a drink at a bar and some old dude next to you started talking like our president, you'd move away from him.

Can you imagine if you were on a plane with the seat next to you empty and saw someone who looked like Trump coming down the aisle?

[iceman]

Exactly.

Insane thought. Isn’t it? And at the same time obvious.

It’s hard for most to understand.

Doubling is hard for people to understand? Seems pretty straightforward I would have thought.

[garyfromterrace]

General Sherman: Nobody has ever laid waste to the South like my Army
CoVid19: Hold my beer

Not PC but sig worthy.

[Buster Highmen]

Exactly.

Insane thought. Isn’t it? And at the same time obvious.

It’s hard for most to understand.

It's also not true, per se.

If the pond is 2/3rd full on the 29th day, it will be full on the 30th day, overflowing in fact, where it was never half full.

[SKIP IN7RO]

^What?

[Dantheman]

Not that it's something I'm particularly keen on betting on, but I'm guessing we'll hit 100k deaths by April 20-ish. The doubling rate on all of those graphs (that apparently can't be posted in here anymore) would need to roll over pretty hard for that not to happen. Given that things are just ramping up in the south, I'm skeptical we'll see that roll over on a national level any time soon.

My thoughts exactly.

[uglymoney]

have you seen the lily pad demonstration of exponential growth?

I'm no mathematician but 1300 people died yesterday and 900 the day before. Seems like 100k is not far away.

My SO has a relative that is sewing cloth masks. Picked up an couple xl's today. Tried wearing ski stuff but it was too hot.

Also Billy Stings is streaming live right now on Nugs. $5.

[Benny Profane]

Can you imagine if you were on a plane with the seat next to you empty and saw someone who looked like Trump coming down the aisle?

Headphones.

[The AD]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/w...s-updates.html

At one point Mr. Trump, who initially set Easter Sunday as a target date for re-opening the country before backing off, said that the holiday would be a particularly “sad” day for Americans prohibited from gathering in large numbers. He said he would again like to consider relaxing social distancing rules for Easter services and that he had told advisers, “maybe we could allow special for churches” gatherings that were possibly outside with “great separation.”

“It’s something we should talk about,” he added

No, it's not, you stupid fuck. Is he brain dead?

[uglymoney]

No, it's not, you stupid fuck. Is he brain dead?

His brain size and function are irrelevant since he always just talks out of his ass.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Benny Profane]

He's catching major shit from the Christians.

[idahospud]

He's catching major shit from the Christians.

Lions to the white courtesy phone. Lions? Lions to the white courtesy phone, please.

[Buster Highmen]

^What?

The doubling rate or the area of a lily pad is independent of the pond surface area.

So, it's possible that after 28 days, the pond is 1/3 covered, after 29 days, it's 2/3 covered, then on the 30th day it's 4/3s covered, so the 30th day is the first day it's covered.

But it was never half covered even thought it was covered on the 30th day.

[idahospud]

The doubling rate or the area of a lily pad is independent of the pond surface area.

So, it's possible that after 28 days, the pond is 1/3 covered, after 29 days, it's 2/3 covered, then on the 30th day it's 4/3s covered, so the 30th day is the first day it's covered.

But it was never half covered.

I mean, doesn't this really depend on the temporal resolution of your measurements? Just because you're reporting daily totals doesn't mean that the actual data doesn't capture the moment in time when it's half-covered.

[Danno]

A lily pond, so goes the French riddle, starts with a single lily leaf. Each day the number of leaves will double: 2 leaves on the second day; 4 leaves on the third day; 8 leaves on the fourth day; etc. If the pond is full on the 30th day, on which day is the pond half full?

29th?

Exactly.

Insane thought. Isn’t it? And at the same time obvious.

It’s hard for most to understand.

Doubling is hard for people to understand? Seems pretty straightforward I would have thought.

the version I have seen was the lily pad is full on day 60, so yeah, half full on day 59. That's not hard to understand.

But on what day is the pond even 1% full?

That's day 54. And THAT is really hard to fucking understand, that the pond that is full on day 60 is not even 1% full on day 53.

[Danno]

The doubling rate or the area of a lily pad is independent of the pond surface area.

So, it's possible that after 28 days, the pond is 1/3 covered, after 29 days, it's 2/3 covered, then on the 30th day it's 4/3s covered, so the 30th day is the first day it's covered.

But it was never half covered even thought it was covered on the 30th day.

The whole premise is that it is perfectly full on X day. So working backwards, the premise is that it is half full on day X-1. Yes, you're right, generally speaking a real life situation would work forward and not backward and you'd be right, but it's needlessly confusing for the demonstration of the issue.