Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[riser4]

Tree rats is what we call them but in a crock pot with carrots, onions and taters...

Hell ya.

[Todd Zander]

Speaking of publicists, here's the CDC on "Mexican" Swine Flu
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/qa.htm

First detected in Americans, suspected origin in pigs.

Perhaps our two brothers in Abraham (Muslims and Jews) are right about unclean animals. Unless United States and the rest of North America permanently bans the practice these periodic outbreaks will just keep happening.

literally quoted from your link:
"
But further study has shown that the 2009 H1N1 is very different from what normally circulates in North American pigs. It has two genes from flu viruses that normally circulate in pigs in Europe and Asia and bird (avian) genes and human genes. "

not sure what youre getting at, just wanted to point it out

[MultiVerse]

Only applies to dirty Chinese animals, I can keep eating American squirrel right?

As much as china makes a great punching bag, they did extinguish SARS, the last disease that originated there.

Squirrel, sure why not? Pangolins on the other hand are critically endangered, on the verge of extinction in Africa, and are protected by an international ban on their trade. That doesn't stop them from being trafficked in China, however.

The Chinese government even turns a blind eye to the illegal exotic animal trade because traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) helps reinforce a nationalist identity as well as being a cultural export. There are hundreds of sites and Asian news stories along with thousands of social media posts unironically touting TCM as a treatment for COVID-19. It's mostly nonsense.


Yeah, China managed to stop SARS and what they're doing now is even more impressive but that was more than a decade ago when China was poorer and less connected. Now, increasingly, even compared with a couple of weeks ago, it looks like SARS-CoV-2 will continue to spread internationally.

[iceman]

Bags of Pangolin scales intercepted in Hong Kong last February.



lotta dead pangolins there

[Timberridge]

So they eat that shit to make their dicks hard? Is the little blue pill not enough?

[Norseman]

Mmm, pangolin flakes in a bowl of bat milk

[summit]

Thought occurs. Is the current H1N1 the same as swine flu H1N1?

Similar... flu is a mutator

The H1N1 antigen in this year's flu vax match the circulating A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09–like virus.

[old goat]

Thought occurs. Is the current H1N1 the same as swine flu H1N1?

As much as china makes a great punching bag, they did extinguish SARS, the last disease that originated there. The US did not do the same for H1N1. I'm hoping China, as well as the other affected countries, succeeds against Covid-19.

To date, we should be doing more to identify cases and get them to quarantine and treatment. It's a crime to let the Westerdam be banned from multiple ports, and end at Cambodia, a country least able to manage this disease. It's a crime to bar entry to Americans leaving the Diamond Princess. We need to be seeing that all possible cases, anywhere in anyone, are being found and treated. Supplies, medical staff, and leadership should be freely dispatched anywhere needed.

The current world approach is dragon-dancing on that loaded avalanche slope, throwing our Chinese New Year firecrackers. Tempting fate

China did not extinguish SARS. SARS cases were found in 30 countries, with the US having the most cases outside of east and southeast Asia, so the virus was contained by the actions taken in all these countries. However, no one seems to know what happened to the virus--why it caused a number of deaths and then disappeared. Other viruses, notably smallpox, have disappeared or been eradicated--but small pox has no known animal reservoir and has an effective vaccine.
The H1N1 is a strain of influenza A that is always present in the human population with genetic variants appearing from time to time, so this year's H1N1 is not the same as the swine flu (they're blaming this year's on Brisbane). Flu of course occurs all over the world, not just in the US, and has not been eradicated because a) there is no universally effective vaccine, b) lots of people don't get vaccinated, c) it is constantly mutating so vaccination or illness in prior years is not protective, and d) there are animal reservoirs from which new strains can arise. It is actually rare for any infectious disease to disappear or be eradicated.

One can argue about how aggressively to fight COVID 19--how many resources, including protective gear to provide (factories cannot simply multiply their output by orders of magnitude, and devoting large amounts of protective gear for COVID 19 means less is available for health care personnel treating other disease--if your surgical team is not wearing masks during your appendectomy you'll know why), how many personnel to divert from other infectious diseases, how much to restrict the civil liberties of victims and particularly of disease free contacts. Keep in mind that we don't quarantine influenza victims and their contacts, and that disease has killed a lot more people this year than COVID 19.

You say more should be done to quarantine cases, and then you say it's a crime to bar entry to Americans leaving the Diamond Princess. Which is it?

What won't help is a bunch of people running around shouting "Do something, anything!!"
I trust the CDC. They're not omniscient but they're the best in the world, as the rest of the world freely admits.

[powpig]

I trust the CDC. They're not omniscient but they're the best in the world, as the rest of the world freely admits.

Looks like that trust is not shared by the State Dept:

Coronavirus-infected Americans flown home against CDC’s advice

[XXX-er]

So they eat that shit to make their dicks hard? Is the little blue pill not enough?

I duno but if you

see alice

tell her I'm ready to go eh

[PB]

Speaking of publicists, here's the CDC on "Mexican" Swine Flu
https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/qa.htm

First detected in Americans, suspected origin in pigs.

Perhaps our two brothers in Abraham (Muslims and Jews) are right about unclean animals. Unless United States and the rest of North America permanently bans the practice these periodic outbreaks will just keep happening.

Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a "clean" animal, even if we start eating ourselves (see Kuru).

[old goat]

Looks like that trust is not shared by the State Dept:

Coronavirus-infected Americans flown home against CDC’s advice

CDC or State, who to believe? That's a tough one. Better think on it.

[LongShortLong]

China did not extinguish SARS. SARS cases were found in 30 countries, with the US having the most cases outside of east and southeast Asia, so the virus was contained by the actions taken in all these countries. However, no one seems to know what happened to the virus--why it caused a number of deaths and then disappeared. Other viruses, notably smallpox, have disappeared or been eradicated--but small pox has no known animal reservoir and has an effective vaccine.
The H1N1 is a strain of influenza A that is always present in the human population with genetic variants appearing from time to time, so this year's H1N1 is not the same as the swine flu (they're blaming this year's on Brisbane). Flu of course occurs all over the world, not just in the US, and has not been eradicated because a) there is no universally effective vaccine, b) lots of people don't get vaccinated, c) it is constantly mutating so vaccination or illness in prior years is not protective, and d) there are animal reservoirs from which new strains can arise. It is actually rare for any infectious disease to disappear or be eradicated.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2...-pandemic.html
2019's H1N1 was the same as 2009, according to this. I've read 2020's is a variant of 2019's, so it's the same. (barring semantic arguments about seasonal variation)

One can argue about how aggressively to fight COVID 19--how many resources, including protective gear to provide (factories cannot simply multiply their output by orders of magnitude, and devoting large amounts of protective gear for COVID 19 means less is available for health care personnel treating other disease--if your surgical team is not wearing masks during your appendectomy you'll know why), how many personnel to divert from other infectious diseases, how much to restrict the civil liberties of victims and particularly of disease free contacts. Keep in mind that we don't quarantine influenza victims and their contacts, and that disease has killed a lot more people this year than COVID 19.

I am arguing more aggressively. If we can spin up an automotive line in a few months in our most highly regulated state (Tesla, Fremont, CA), we can spin up some PPE protective gear lines faster. There may be sufficient inventory we can simply send what we've already got. So far, there's only 10's of thousands of patients. As supplies run low, make more.

Flu has infects a billion people to get its body count

Covid-19 has infected 10's of thousands and killed 2000 already. Most of the cases aren't resolved as yet, so it's more deadly than it looks. It's a much more deadly infection than regular flu.

You say more should be done to quarantine cases, and then you say it's a crime to bar entry to Americans leaving the Diamond Princess. Which is it?

Both. Charter a jet. Bring 'em here. Quarantine and treat. Don't have them running loose spreading it. There's 50 Americans. There's already a few dozen Covid cases here, and a few hundred quarantined. If we took the other passenger, it's a couple thousand or so. Call it a military training exercise for bioterror if we must, just get people treated.

What won't help is a bunch of people running around shouting "Do something, anything!!"
I trust the CDC. They're not omniscient but they're the best in the world, as the rest of the world freely admits.

I trust them too. They need a kick in the pants.

[LongShortLong]

literally quoted from your link:
"
But further study has shown that the 2009 H1N1 is very different from what normally circulates in North American pigs. It has two genes from flu viruses that normally circulate in pigs in Europe and Asia and bird (avian) genes and human genes. "

not sure what youre getting at, just wanted to point it out

I was getting at novel diseases are not limited to Chinese taste for animals that happen to differ from anyone else's taste in animals. Novel diseases are going to happen. There may be someone to blame for each. This time it's China's turn for blame. All of us need to limit spread or have the consequences.

I was also getting at the having a good publicist idea. Your closer reading suggests the H1N1 flu originally blamed on Mexico, discovered in the US, actually has origins elsewhere. But that's still on point. It isn't the "Mexican Swine Flu" as originally advertised.

"The virus has killed more than 2,000 people — most of them in China's Hubei province, the center of the outbreak. Globally, nearly 17,000 people had recovered from the illness as of Thursday afternoon ET."
19,000 cases resolved. 2000 of those in death. Deserves attention.

[LongShortLong]

What won't help is a bunch of people running around shouting "Do something, anything!!"
I trust the CDC. They're not omniscient but they're the best in the world, as the rest of the world freely admits.

What will help is "doing something" for the bunch of people running around who are infected, or possibly infected. Leaving them loose in Japan (or Cambodia or wherever) helps no one*.

* Does help enviro-whackos. What could be better for the planet than losing a bunch of people?

[summit]

Fucking State Dept: "What does the CDC know about disease control and prevention? Let's put the infected people on the same plane as the uninfected people!

[Mofro261]

What will help is "doing something" for the bunch of people running around who are infected, or possibly infected. Leaving them loose in Japan (or Cambodia or wherever) helps no one*.

* Does help enviro-whackos. What could be better for the planet than losing a bunch of people?

Culling the elderly doesn't do much for population control.

[old goat]

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/spotlights/2...-pandemic.html
2019's H1N1 was the same as 2009, according to this. I've read 2020's is a variant of 2019's, so it's the same. (barring semantic arguments about seasonal variation)


I am arguing more aggressively. If we can spin up an automotive line in a few months in our most highly regulated state (Tesla, Fremont, CA), we can spin up some PPE protective gear lines faster. There may be sufficient inventory we can simply send what we've already got. So far, there's only 10's of thousands of patients. As supplies run low, make more.

Flu has infects a billion people to get its body count

Covid-19 has infected 10's of thousands and killed 2000 already. Most of the cases aren't resolved as yet, so it's more deadly than it looks. It's a much more deadly infection than regular flu.


Both. Charter a jet. Bring 'em here. Quarantine and treat. Don't have them running loose spreading it. There's 50 Americans. There's already a few dozen Covid cases here, and a few hundred quarantined. If we took the other passenger, it's a couple thousand or so. Call it a military training exercise for bioterror if we must, just get people treated.


I trust them too. They need a kick in the pants.

As far as the H1N1 being just a variant--it's not semantics. H1N1 has been around for a very long time, the 2009 pandemic was caused by a variant--that's hardly semantics. The variation from year to year is what makes developing effective vaccines so difficult. In any case you missed my point--the failure to eradicate H1N1 is not a US failure. The virus was and is a worldwide problem. and viruses are almost never eradicated. What happened with SARS was a rare exception (unless it pops up again).

As far as masks go--companies are gearing up https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/b...sultPosition=2 but in order to make masks you need machines. Those take time to make. And once the epidemic is over what happens to those machines and the companies' investment in them.

Another article about masks and why an American manufacturer is reluctant to ramp up production--SARS nearly put him out of business, because after the epidemic was over hospitals etc were left sitting on huge mask inventories and stopped ordering more. https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...manufacturing/

It may be justified in the future to put a moon shot effort into making protective gear but it does not seem justified yet. It is not even clear how effective protective gear is, given the number of health care workers who have been infected. Only time will tell if we are too slow in reacting or if we are overreacting.

It is irrelevant how many cases of flu it takes to kill x number of people. What is relevant is how many people die. My point is that at this point the response to COVID 19 is disproportionate to its health impact thus far.

The world's health authorities are trying to figure out what will work and how aggressive in quarantining people it needs to be. Every new virus poses a different challenge, what worked in the past might not work this time or might be overkill. For the most part health authorities are being very aggressive--what happened in Cambodia and with the infected Americans being put on a plan with uninfected people were decisions made by politicians, not health authorities. The biggest obstacles to control will be the actions of politicians around the world and more importantly, the actions of individuals, many of whom will not be compliant with the recommendations of health authorities.

What eventually happens with this virus will depend mostly likely on it's biological characteristics. No one has figured out a way to prevent diseases, invasive species of plants and animals, or people from spreading around the world if they chooses to do so. If this virus doesn't do a SARS and disappear on its own, the best hope will be a vaccine. Read about the polio epidemics of the first half of the 20th century--the fear, the changes in behavior as people stayed home during the summer, and the success of vaccination. COVID 19 could turn out to be like polio, not SARS.

The tone of panic in your post is alarming, because it is representative of how a lot of people feel or will feel, and because it makes taking rational, effective actions much much harder.

[iceman]

Most of the cases aren't resolved as yet, so it's more deadly than it looks.

That's some interesting logic there.

[LongShortLong]

That's some interesting logic there.

How so? Taking current deaths and dividing by current cases is a clear source of underestimate. People who are diagnosed may yet die, increasing the numerator. The denominator does not change. End result is correcting this error shows it's more deadly.

There is also some error in the other direction - people infected who are not detected, e.g. some don't get sick enough. Almost all the current cases are traceable to China. The traceability suggests few are undetected. (Could also be a variant of Bacon's Law and the connections are social rather than viral transmission)

WHO's number of 2% deadly seems plenty bad. 15% for the 80+ crowd. Haven't seen numbers for how bad it is for the recovered, there are reports of lung damage.

[Mofro261]

That's some interesting logic there.

Flip side is 80% of cases are mild or asymptomatic so the total # of infections is under-reported, ie less deadly than it looks.

Reality is anything that progresses as far as Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome has a good chance of taking someone down.

Infection rate often does not equal Disease rate.

[iceman]

by "interesting" I meant, "fucked up", my bad I thought that was obvious.

[Toadman]

105 US dead kids from flu.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/21/healt...105/index.html

[LongShortLong]

It is irrelevant how many cases of flu it takes to kill x number of people. What is relevant is how many people die. My point is that at this point the response to COVID 19 is disproportionate to its health impact thus far.

I see. So we wait until the problem is too big to tackle, and then fail to tackle it because it's too late to do anything

My take from the SARS lesson (and Ebola) is we (the world) took aggressive action and successfully limited spread of these diseases.

The world's health authorities are trying to figure out what will work and how aggressive in quarantining people it needs to be. Every new virus poses a different challenge, what worked in the past might not work this time or might be overkill. For the most part health authorities are being very aggressive--what happened in Cambodia and with the infected Americans being put on a plan with uninfected people were decisions made by politicians, not health authorities. The biggest obstacles to control will be the actions of politicians around the world and more importantly, the actions of individuals, many of whom will not be compliant with the recommendations of health authorities.

I see advantage in taking action now to limit spread so fewer of those non-compliant individuals have the opportunity to be selfish (i.e. they never get infected). It also protects my own freedom do go as I please.

A 1% hit to the world's economy is $800B. Spending a tiny fraction of $800B in an attempt to avoid this hit seems wise. Covid-19 is currently a very small problem, though it has promising future growth.

The tone of panic in your post is alarming, because it is representative of how a lot of people feel or will feel, and because it makes taking rational, effective actions much much harder.

Denial is a valid response. I was there a couple weeks ago.

I wouldn't say I'm panicked. There's 2 cases in my county, and who knows how many self-quarantines. I've made no changes. Continue to appear in public and attend social events. Hoarded nothing. Dissed no Chinese (unsure how that could help, seems counterproductive at best). I have increased handwashing frequency, mainly to develop the habit for the future.

You're a doctor, right? I'm ashamed to admit I'm not even a dentist (though I've shown some promise in math and logical reasoning, I am an easily deceived human). Do you have some insight I'm missing? Is there reason to believe this is just another flu, not really more dangerous than the others?

[LongShortLong]

by "interesting" I meant, "fucked up", my bad I thought that was obvious.

Aye. Sorry