Page 339 of 1673 FirstFirst ... 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 ... LastLast
Results 8,451 to 8,475 of 41810
  1. #8451
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    5,539
    Quote Originally Posted by Deebased View Post
    Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University. "..Based on a study of 375 cities in China... 86% of cases were undocumented...-asymptomatic or had only very mild symptoms". https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb3221

    So no not made-up just rounded Down at every possible scenario to present the Worst Case.
    Your number are made up. Not only does your source not say there's only a 20% symptomatic rate, but undocumented and mild is not the same thing as asymptomatic which you've attempted to lump together into your "asymptomatic" category.

  2. #8452
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    10,525
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    WRT the flu vs COVID-19 death rate from the previous page: the CDC death rate for influenze is Symptomatic Illnesses / Deaths = ~.01%.

    So comparing asymptomatic COVID-19 with symptomatic flu doesn't make sense when there haven't been any serosurveys or serial viral shedding studies for COVID-19. Maybe most of the COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic or maybe asymptomatic numbers are false positives because tests can also pick up people who have been in contact with an infected person.

    Comparing apples to apples, which for now may well make more sense, according to the latest research people with COVID-19 symptoms in Wuhan China had a 1.4% death rate. That's 140 times the symptomatic death rate of the flu.

    https://files.springernature.com/get...7ffaQiUg%3D%3D

    That makes no sense either.

    -comparing a flu that's created herd immunity over the last 20,000 years death rates with a novel one.

  3. #8453
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    10,906
    Quote Originally Posted by Deebased View Post
    There's lots of positive to glean from it.

    330M x 60% (expected infection rate) x 20% (symptomatic rate) x 15% (hospitalization rate) x 20% (ventilator rate). x 50% (fatality rate)

    = slightly under 1% of the pop or as the UK (based on the Imperial College Report) said 0.5 to 1%. Cross-reference that across age and health and unless you have coronary heart disease, diabetes or kidney issues and are over 60 your chance of dying is slightly higher than dying from falling on steps.
    and carry the 1..............


    Yup, checks out.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  4. #8454
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    10,525
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Your number are made up. Your source does not say there's only a 20% symptomatic rate.

    False its an estimation. Based upon a mathematically sound model inference.

    So yes my 80% is made up. The best number we have is 6% lower.

  5. #8455
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    5,539
    Quote Originally Posted by Deebased View Post
    False its an estimation. Based upon a mathematically sound model inference.

    Quote Originally Posted by Deebased View Post
    That makes no sense either.

    -comparing a flu that's created herd immunity over the last 20,000 years death rates with a novel one.
    1) No, you made the number up. Your quote includes mild cases which by definition includes symptoms. That's also true for some % of undocumented. You are trying to lump mild and undocumented together with asymptomatic. Those are three separate categories.


    2) Then you along with all the other "no worse than the flu" homers should stop making that comparison.



    In the U.S. the influenza fatality rate for Deaths / Symptomatic Illnesses = ~0.1%.

    In Wuhan China the COVID-19 fatality rate for Deaths / Symptomatic Illnesses = ~1.4%.

    That's an enormous difference.
    Last edited by MultiVerse; 03-25-2020 at 07:04 PM.

  6. #8456
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Bottom feeding
    Posts
    10,828

    Chinese Rat Flu

    Quote Originally Posted by The AD View Post
    This is the ranting of a dangerously unhinged individual.

    Of course he has said and done so many things where I've said "That's it. No one can possibly support him now!" and I've been wrong every time so far.
    I was talking to my truptard Mom this morning and I mentioned that this will be over when it is over, not Easter.

    She said she saw the interview and then she used the phrase: “What he meant was...”

    They use this a lot. “Oh, he just meant that it’d be great if it was over by Easter.” “What he meant was he hoped it would be over by then.”
    Well maybe I'm the faggot America
    I'm not a part of a redneck agenda

  7. #8457
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Alpental
    Posts
    6,565
    Quote Originally Posted by Deebased View Post
    Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University. "..Based on a study of 375 cities in China... 86% of cases were undocumented...-asymptomatic or had only very mild symptoms". https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb3221

    So no not made-up just rounded Down at every possible scenario to present the Worst Case.
    whoa whoa whoa. That doesn't say only 20% are symptomatic, it say undocumented, asymptomatic, OR mild symptoms accounted for 86% of the cases. That was also prior Jan 23 in China, and before travel restrictions and wide spread rtPCR testing were introduced. It's actually says that early on in Wuhan outbreak prior to Jan 23, these cases were 86% of the infections, and after testing and restrictions were implemented, that undocumented and asymptomatic cases dropped to 35%.

    Iceland tested 1,800 and found 1 asymptomatic on the low end.

    The Diamond Princess had 18% asymptomatic rate.

    SK has done extensive contact tracing and more per capita testing than any other country and their asymptomatics are 10-20%. On the high end I'm seeing estimates like 30% in China, some est as 40-50% but nothing to suggest only 1/5 or less have symptoms.

    80% mild or moderate infection does not mean only 20% symptomatic.
    Move upside and let the man go through...

  8. #8458
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by plugboots View Post
    I was talking to my truptard Mom this morning and I mentioned that this will be over when it is over, not Easter.

    She said she saw the interview and then she used the phrase: “What he meant was...”

    They use this a lot. “Oh, he just meant that it’d be great if it was over by Easter.” “What he meant was he hoped it would be over by then.”
    It really is like a different language.

  9. #8459
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Nashville TN
    Posts
    1,054
    Quote Originally Posted by Mofro261 View Post
    whoa whoa whoa. That doesn't say only 20% are symptomatic, it say undocumented, asymptomatic, OR mild symptoms accounted for 86% of the cases. That was also prior Jan 23 in China, and before travel restrictions and wide spread rtPCR testing were introduced. It's actually says that early on in Wuhan outbreak prior to Jan 23, these cases were 86% of the infections, and after testing and restrictions were implemented, that undocumented and asymptomatic cases dropped to 35%.

    Iceland tested 1,800 and found 1 asymptomatic on the low end.

    The Diamond Princess had 18% asymptomatic rate.

    SK has done extensive contact tracing and more per capita testing than any other country and their asymptomatics are 10-20%. On the high end I'm seeing estimates like 30% in China, some est as 40-50% but nothing to suggest only 1/5 or less have symptoms.

    80% mild or moderate infection does not mean only 20% symptomatic.
    hey, Deebased, in case you haven't been paying attention, the guy replying to you does this for a living.

    Edit: to make it clear my comment is to Deebased not MoFro.

  10. #8460
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Nashville TN
    Posts
    1,054
    Quote Originally Posted by gretch6364 View Post
    They did elect Obama twice...
    I'd sure take him now. Or Jr. or Bubba. Or hell, even you, and I don't know you.

  11. #8461
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Cruzing
    Posts
    11,911
    Quote Originally Posted by ncskier View Post
    Well anyone doing that is in the dumbass category as well.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Yes. But unfortunately they take up a hospital bed and are vectors.

  12. #8462
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    10,525
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Your number are made up. Not only does your source not say there's only a 20% symptomatic rate, but undocumented and mild is not the same thing as asymptomatic which you've attempted to lump together into your "asymptomatic" category.
    No wonder you're consistently wrong about EVERYTHING.

    First of all I stated "86% of cases were undocumented...-asymptomatic or had only very mild symptoms"

    since you've made it your life choice to out stupid the deplorable the "or" combines two categories as one.

    So please continue the hysteria, but add a point of introspection...How are you profiting off it?

  13. #8463
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    10,525
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    1) No, you made the number up. Your quote includes mild cases which by definition includes symptoms. That's also true for some % of undocumented. You are trying to lump mild and undocumented together with asymptomatic. Those are three separate categories.


    2) Then you along with all the other "no worse than the flu" homers should stop making that comparison.



    In the U.S. the influenza fatality rate for Deaths / Symptomatic Illnesses = ~0.1%.

    In Wuhan China the COVID-19 fatality rate for Deaths / Symptomatic Illnesses = ~1.4%.

    That's an enormous difference.
    Tell me is the average life span * .1%. greater or less than 1.4%.

  14. #8464
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    1,414
    Quote Originally Posted by gretch6364 View Post
    I have very little memory of the actual Reagan Presidency, but I have read about it.
    He is the president that said trees cause air pollution.. and denied the aids crisis...quite the idiot...thats why conservatives love him

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TGR Forums mobile app
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  15. #8465
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    10,525
    Quote Originally Posted by Mofro261 View Post
    whoa whoa whoa. That doesn't say only 20% are symptomatic, it say undocumented, asymptomatic, OR mild symptoms accounted for 86% of the cases. That was also prior Jan 23 in China, and before travel restrictions and wide spread rtPCR testing were introduced. It's actually says that early on in Wuhan outbreak prior to Jan 23, these cases were 86% of the infections, and after testing and restrictions were implemented, that undocumented and asymptomatic cases dropped to 35%.

    Iceland tested 1,800 and found 1 asymptomatic on the low end.

    The Diamond Princess had 18% asymptomatic rate.

    SK has done extensive contact tracing and more per capita testing than any other country and their asymptomatics are 10-20%. On the high end I'm seeing estimates like 30% in China, some est as 40-50% but nothing to suggest only 1/5 or less have symptoms.

    80% mild or moderate infection does not mean only 20% symptomatic.
    All good points except undocumented included mild symptoms and asymptomatic. The 86% was based on 6 model state variables "(the average latent period, the average duration of infection, the transmission reduction factor for undocumented infections, the transmission rate for documented infections; the fraction of documented infections, and the travel multiplicative factor)"..

    People asked where I got the #. I shared the source.

  16. #8466
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    907
    Posts
    15,645
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    No, actually, good point. The same population that gave Obama two terms voted for Trump. Don't forget that.

    So Bernie's constant attacks right up to Election Day 2016 had no effect on media coverage or voter turnout in Hillary Clinton's 3 million vote victory? Then why is Bernie still in the race when he has no chance?

    Polyass Bro.

  17. #8467
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Tahoe
    Posts
    2,681
    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    He is the president that said trees cause air pollution.. and denied the aids crisis...quite the idiot...thats why conservatives love him

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TGR Forums mobile app
    Yeah, and Obama said there were 57 states. So what! You can't discount 8 years of a presidency based on one or even a handful of stupid statements. If you do, you're the idiot!
    "The mind, once expanded to the dimensions of larger ideas, never returns to its original size."

  18. #8468
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Tahoe
    Posts
    2,681
    Quote Originally Posted by highangle View Post
    Then why is Bernie still in the race when he has no chance?
    He's hoping Biden is gonna die of the Covid?
    "The mind, once expanded to the dimensions of larger ideas, never returns to its original size."

  19. #8469
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    35,361
    Raygun...the originator of the space force...senile (yet charismatic) complete twat.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  20. #8470
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    10,525
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Mike View Post
    hey, Deebased, in case you haven't been paying attention, the guy replying to you does this for a living.

    Edit: to make it clear my comment is to Deebased not MoFro.
    People believe, espouse and repeat dumb shit all day long in every industry.

    We all have a vested interest in short term "the sky is falling" narratives if it keeps our DNA strands replicating and safe.

  21. #8471
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    PNW
    Posts
    7,364
    Are the red hatters still arguing this is no worse than the flu?

    Comparing a flu to pneumonia is so trumptardian

  22. #8472
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Posts
    10,525
    Quote Originally Posted by k2skier112 View Post
    Are the red hatters still arguing this is no worse than the flu?

    Comparing a flu to pneumonia is so trumptardian
    Are people still making that argument? That's fucked.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2SdEpHjrjw

    Way worse in the short term 12 months.
    Way less in the long term 18+mo

  23. #8473
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    907
    Posts
    15,645
    Quote Originally Posted by powpig View Post
    He's hoping Biden is gonna die of the Covid?
    Bernie's too much of a narcissist to think he can ever get it...So you're probably right. He should do rallies, BTW.

  24. #8474
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Cruzing
    Posts
    11,911
    Quote Originally Posted by gretch6364 View Post
    I have very little memory of the actual Reagan Presidency, but I have read about it.
    I recall reagon. He released all the mental wards somthe government could save money. Yeah, that guy was great for America. As long as you were rich and white. Good fellow.

  25. #8475
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Upstate
    Posts
    9,675

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •