Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[gravitylover]

Well, my kids college is closing for a month and we can't go into my father in law's assisted living facility together to visit him for the foreseeable future. I am supposed to be at a trade show today but held off and it's a good thing because had I gone neither me or my wife would be allowed in to see him.

Here we go...

[The AD]

The emerging story out of places like Korea and Italy are aided in part by massive testing. In other words, we only know that 7,755 people were infected in SK because they tested north of 200K people. Those kind of numbers will NOT be generated here in the US because we aren't testing.

From the NY Times article I posted the link to earlier:

But it remains unclear how many Americans have been tested for the coronavirus. The C.D.C. says approximately 8,500 specimens or nose swabs have been taken since the beginning of the outbreak — a figure that is almost certainly larger than the number of people tested since one person can have multiple swabs. By comparison, South Korea, which discovered its first case around the same time as the United States, has reported having the capacity to test roughly 10,000 people a day since late February.

[Mazderati]

I'm going out on a limb and saying that by July we will have all but forgotten about Covid-19 ... and not because it wasn't serious or didn't have lasting effects, but because we will never have accurate data.

Anything in particular making you lean toward subsiding instead of resurgent virus? Seems like there is history for both.

[huckbucket]

Anything in particular making you lean toward a subsiding as opposed to a resurgent virus? Seems like there is history for both.

Not biology necessarily ... just an increase in social distancing.

[powdork]

The emerging story out of places like Korea and Italy are aided in part by massive testing. In other words, we only know that 7,755 people were infected in SK because they tested north of 200K people. Those kind of numbers will NOT be generated here in the US because we aren't testing. Instead all we will see are anecdotal reports from far flung hospitals describing how they are over-run and running short of supplies. The big picture will not emerge though and as the country warms going into spring, even the hospital admissions will likely subside. I'm going out on a limb and saying that by July we will have all but forgotten about Covid-19 ... and not because it wasn't serious or didn't have lasting effects, but because we will never have accurate data.

we'll see in the next couple days/weeks how it is transmitting in places like Australia, Qatar, Panama, etc. Then we'll have a better idea of whether it's gonna slow down seasonally.

[Dantheman]

The big picture will not emerge though and as the country warms going into spring, even the hospital admissions will likely subside. I'm going out on a limb and saying that by July we will have all but forgotten about Covid-19 ... and not because it wasn't serious or didn't have lasting effects, but because we will never have accurate data.

I got about halfway through that Rogan/Osterholm episode yesterday. He was pretty skeptical that warm weather will affect COVID-19, mostly based on the fact that MERS seems to spread just fine in the Middle East in mid-summer. I agree with your overall point, though. The impact will be far less than it could have been thanks to the drastic measures being taken right now, and when it's all over the BGnight's of the world will stand up and claim it was all bullshit from the beginning.

[From_the_NEK]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

I should probably not go to the Bruins game in Boston then...

[muted]

I'm going out on a limb and saying that by July we will have all but forgotten about Covid-19 ... and not because it wasn't serious or didn't have lasting effects, but because we will never have accurate data.

That's a pretty weak limb to go out on, but I really hope you are right! I read something yesterday by some big health org that they expect this to go on into 2020. 104 is the temp it may not survive past.

For work, I'd really appreciate if everything to calms down by June so I don't have to second job as an Amazon delivery driver, ha.

[RootSkier]

My wife and kids are supposed to fly from MT to MN to visit family on Friday. There are no confirmed cases in MT and very few in MN.

Is it a bad idea to go, or would it be crazy to cancel?

[rideit]

The emerging story out of places like Korea and Italy are aided in part by massive testing. In other words, we only know that 7,755 people were infected in SK because they tested north of 200K people. Those kind of numbers will NOT be generated here in the US because we aren't testing. Instead all we will see are anecdotal reports from far flung hospitals describing how they are over-run and running short of supplies. The big picture will not emerge though and as the country warms going into spring, even the hospital admissions will likely subside. I'm going out on a limb and saying that by July we will have all but forgotten about Covid-19 ... and not because it wasn't serious or didn't have lasting effects, but because we will never have accurate data.

Unless, of course, your mom dies.

[Iowagriz]

Daughters college (Purdue) and others in the Big 10 are going to online classes after spring break. She said that most students are still going through with spring break plans, and thus the colleges are worried about them bringing the virus back to campus and beginning a large outbreak. I assume they plan on 2-3 weeks of online classes only, then assess.

I'm expecting graduation to get cancelled, bummer for us - but it is only a ceremony.

[The AD]

I got about halfway through that Rogan/Osterholm episode yesterday. He was pretty skeptical that warm weather will affect COVID-19, mostly based on the fact that MERS seems to spread just fine in the Middle East in mid-summer.

I always thought the theory was that people tend to not congregate as frequently in the summer and that's why viruses tend to be more severe in the winter. Kids are out of school, people are taking vacations, etc. Temperature doesn't really have anything to do with it,

[swissiphic]

we'll see in the next couple days/weeks how it is transmitting in places like Australia, Qatar, Panama, etc. Then we'll have a better idea of whether it's gonna slow down seasonally.

What about Iran though? Fairly warm country, no? Or is the context important, i.e., different gov response measures compared to other modern countries? Honest question, I got no clue.

[char_]

My wife and kids are supposed to fly from MT to MN to visit family on Friday. There are no confirmed cases in MT and very few in MN.

Is it a bad idea to go, or would it be crazy to cancel?

Depends on who you are listening to. The experts seem to be saying that social distancing is the thing to do right now and that it is only the economic incentives that are keeping health officials from being proactive.

[splat]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

Combine that with news that China is faking their recovery.

My wife and kids are supposed to fly from MT to MN to visit family on Friday. There are no confirmed cases in MT and very few in MN.

Is it a bad idea to go, or would it be crazy to cancel?

It's the fuckers who got on the plane in Wuhan she has to worry about. She could always NoDak it in the car.

[PNWbrit]

My wife and kids are supposed to fly from MT to MN to visit family on Friday. There are no confirmed cases in MT and very few in MN.

Is it a bad idea to go, or would it be crazy to cancel?

Are they visiting elderly family?

This isn't rocket science.

[Benny Profane]

I bet the Astros are pretty fucking relieved.

Always a bright side.

[RootSkier]

Are they visiting elderly family?

This isn't rocket science.

Oldest are in their early 60s, but they say they are not worried about it.

But consider this: if everyone is going to be exposed eventually, are the grandparents better off taking a chance seeing the kids NOW when apparently no one has been exposed or waiting and hoping they survive their exposure later? It's macabre as fuck but if the grandparents are going to die if they are exposed maybe better that they spend the time with the grandkids now when it seems likely that nobody in the family has been exposed, because if this thing is as deadly as they say the grandparents are gonna fucking die anyways.

[Danno]

What about Iran though? Fairly warm country, no? Or is the context important, i.e., different gov response measures compared to other modern countries? Honest question, I got no clue.

Iran isn't that warm, from what google tells me.

[Dantheman]

I always thought the theory was that people tend to not congregate as frequently in the summer and that's why viruses tend to be more severe in the winter. Kids are out of school, people are taking vacations, etc. Temperature doesn't really have anything to do with it,

Influenza survives much better in cold dry air: http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/20...kes-in-winter/

Those other factors certainly do contribute, but these days people also tend to congregate in air-conditioned spaces in mid-summer so I'm not sure how much more natural "social distancing" there really is in summer.

[kokomas]

My wife and kids are supposed to fly from MT to MN to visit family on Friday. There are no confirmed cases in MT and very few in MN.

Is it a bad idea to go, or would it be crazy to cancel?

certainly not crazy to avoid airports and planes. and I wouldn't assume there are no cases because of that map; no one has been tested. I get your point about seeing the grandparents for sure. also consider that by hunkering down you won't contribute to the swamped hospitals which are (unfortunately but likely) coming

[riser4]

Combine that with news that China is faking their recovery.



It's the fuckers who got on the plane in Wuhan she has to worry about. She could always NoDak it in the car.

Shit, if The Cure is the cure then I'm just going to off myself.

[refried]

My wife and kids are supposed to fly from MT to MN to visit family on Friday. There are no confirmed cases in MT and very few in MN.

Is it a bad idea to go, or would it be crazy to cancel?

I'm supposed to fly from Seatac to JFK Friday for my mothers 80th birthday, She's really healthy but my father just had his last round of chemo a few weeks ago and even though he feels good and the doctor said everything looks good I'm really thinking about postponing my trip. I'm sure she'll be disappointed and my sister mad because I missed whatever she had planned but I don't want to drag all kinds of germs with me I'm not staying with them but will be there a couple days. I don't feel like getting stuck there either.

[El Chupacabra]

Shit, if The Cure is the cure then I'm just going to off myself.

I don't care if Monday's blue

[powdork]

I always thought the theory was that people tend to not congregate as frequently in the summer and that's why viruses tend to be more severe in the winter. Kids are out of school, people are taking vacations, etc. Temperature doesn't really have anything to do with it,

part of the temperature thing with winter is how we respond to it (and the dry air) in addition to how the temp affects the virus. and regardless of whether covid dies down, the health care system gets a bit of a reprieve because the flu patients will subside.


but as for coronaviruses themselves, SARS showed some seasonality while MERS did not