Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[KQ]

I maybe shouldn’t admit to it on the internet, but I had about 15 minutes of debilitating terror last night for what may come. I had just put my kids to bed and was texting my 70 year old parents (pops has asthma and mom high bp) and it just all crashed on me that if it keeps trending this way my kids may never see their grandparents again. That just opened the door to the hell we may all be in a month from now. I was able to snap out of it, but man this stuff is scary. I still have some hope that we can get this under control, but all these dumbfucks out there partying have got to stop.

I had a moment like that yesterday.

Last night my mother called me from her retirement home to say "WE'RE IN LOCK DOWN!" Well yeah... I knew that 2 days ago and we had discussed the situation potentially happening before it did. She said she had 90days of meds and would be going to the store the next day only she didn't and was now in a panic. Ugh. She placed a large Walmart order this morning for me to pick up tomorrow and drop off at the door of her complex. I helped her with the order and had to constantly remind her to order large amounts to which she would say "I can get more next week." No... no Mom... that's not how it's working right now. Ugh.

This is part of what lead to my not being able to sleep and stressed out dreams last night.

[SB]

Been having to be a parent to my parents right now is frustrating.

Mom can not understand that she can not behave the way she did last week.

Told her at this rate both her and dad will get sick and very little can be done for them.

[skiballs]

There’s no way of knowing, but I wonder what the cost of the of these draconian action will be, as opposed to letting at risk people take pr precautions.
Is the remedy worse than the illness?

[KQ]

Oh, you want to talk about dreams?! Mine are generally on a pretty grand, epic cinematic scale, with themes of inescapable impending death, to the point where my doctor has suggested medication that prevents dreaming..

Last night, after spending too much time reading about this outbreak, I dreamt myself along with loved ones were trapped in a large building being chased and attacked by caronavirus victims that had turned into invincible zombies.

At one point I found my family, and in a group huddle were we discussed how we were going to escape I learned that my mother had surgically removed all of our stomachs, which explains some undiagnosed stomach issues I have in real life. Another wave of virus zombies attacked us, killing most of us one by one. Some of us eventually escaped the building, only to be picked off by 'government' snipers waiting outside for us.

Pretty easy to understand the 'being attacked by zombies' symbolism but the stomach part really messed with my morning.

Oh gawd. Sorry dude! As someone who has suffered with vivid reoccurring dreams their whole life I feel your pain. Because of my history with bad dreams I don't watch scary movies. I take it you've seen your share of zombie movies.

Quarantines and closures are moving fast.
Or not fast enough.
Sticking your head in the sand and thinking this is no big deal is going to lead to a European situation like Italy's.

Some texts from relatives in France and the Netherlands.

[3/15, 2:29 PM] Rory: Hello P*****, Tomorrow our plans are to drive to granville , bringing M***** mom to N******* in Rennes on the way. Paris and suburbs will be in lockdown from tomorrow night on , with army controlling the roads. We’re expecting to be able to handle « quarantine « in Granville better than in an apt in Paris! So it goes in France ....

Attachment 320553

[3/16, 12:20 PM] Tomas : Seems like Paris will be rationed, as it was during ww2
[3/16, 12:21 PM] Tomas I hope the parisians are ready to eat pigeon!

Edit: Important to still keep a sense of humor to help you though tough times.

[3/16, 1:10 PM] Rory: Haha - only if grilled !

My Jr. High French teacher (Mrs. Wolfenstein) lived through the Nazi occupation of Paris. Boy did she have stories to tell - crazy shit. She told me they ate rats.

Jebus!



Meanwhile, having bungled its initial response with a shortage of kits and rigid testing guidelines, the US healthcare system is still catching up on the capacity to diagnose and treat patients suspected to have Covid-19.

LOL @ Bungled

[east or bust]

Note to self ... never get in a war with China. Fucking hell ... 20X ramp up in production of masks to 200M/day!!! Those fuckers just crank shit out.

Attachment 320575

Time would be better spent making hand sanitizer. The idea of these masks making any kind of difference is so GD laughable

[skaredshtles]

Note to self ... never get in a war with China. Fucking hell ... 20X ramp up in production of masks to 200M/day!!!

Dafuq? I ain't afraid of nobody going to war with me wielding face masks...

[gravitylover]

I am in a Bronx V.A. hospital waiting room right now waiting for my friend coming out of eye surgery. They are shutting down all elective surgeries tomorrow to free up ICU and prevent contamination. All NY hospitals are essentially going into war footing. Be careful, don't get too nuts mountain biking, because you're not getting fixed for maybe months.

My local hospital posted this morning asking people to refrain from high risk activities because they will not treat us unless it's a life threatening injury. They specifically asked us to avoid bike riding of any sort and not to do dangerous yardwork while we're all stuck at home. I get it but FUCKITY FUCK what else is there to do?

[BmillsSkier]

I'm ok avoiding dangerous yardwork.

[huckbucket]

The idea of these masks making any kind of difference is so GD laughable

No necessarily true. Current theory for Singapore is that masks made a big impact on spread. Current hypothesis is that the mask reduces the initial inoculum (which is a known benefit even for shitty masks) and that this leads to a milder case. Milder cases means lower peak titers and fewer deaths.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Fuck da Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/i/status/1238961527081795584

[basinbeater]

My wife is freaking out. I woke up this morning and she had already been up writing on all glass surfaces in the house with a red dry erase markers. Things like, "take deep breaths. It's going to be ok.". And "we can do this". Etc. I wandered around doing my morning thing before work and saw them on mirrors in the bathroom, kitchen windows, bedroom mirror, kids bathroom mirror. Wtf. I'm nervous, but doing what I can to do to stay distracted with kids, cars, electronics, work, etc. But she is freaking out.

sent from Utah.

[Dantheman]

There’s no way of knowing, but I wonder what the cost of the of these draconian action will be, as opposed to letting at risk people take pr precautions.
Is the remedy worse than the illness?

You do not fully appreciate how exponential growth works, or the fragility of the carrying capacity of the healthcare system. It took about a month to go from ~10 cases to ~2,000 cases (known, actual number likely much higher) with cases doubling every ~2.5 days. With no intervention, in another month those 2,000 cases become 50-100+ million cases. Hospitals massively overwhelmed, people start dying from non-virus causes (trauma, heart attacks, etc.) who would have lived otherwise because they can't get treated--it gets really bad, really fast.

[KQ]

A message from Arnold and friends:

[muted]

My wife is freaking out. I woke up this morning and she had already been up writing on all glass surfaces in the house with a red dry erase markers. Things like, "take deep breaths. It's going to be ok.". And "we can do this". Etc. I wandered around doing my morning thing before work and saw them on mirrors in the bathroom, kitchen windows, bedroom mirror, kids bathroom mirror. Wtf. I'm nervous, but doing what I can to do to stay distracted with kids, cars, electronics, work, etc. But she is freaking out.

sent from Utah.

Take the marker and write 'REDRUM' on a mirror. I'm sure she will have a laugh about it.

[::: :::]

You do not fully appreciate how exponential growth works, or the fragility of the carrying capacity of the healthcare system. It took about a month to go from ~10 cases to ~2,000 cases (known, actual number likely much higher) with cases doubling every ~2.5 days. With no intervention, in another month those 2,000 cases become 50-100+ million cases. Hospitals massively overwhelmed, people start dying from non-virus causes (trauma, heart attacks, etc.) who would have lived otherwise because they can't get treated--it gets really bad, really fast.

we'll know we did the right thing if morons are still healthy and arguing that we were too strict after we ride through it

[skaredshtles]

[toast2266]

There’s no way of knowing, but I wonder what the cost of the of these draconian action will be, as opposed to letting at risk people take pr precautions.
Is the remedy worse than the illness?

Yeah, I was thinking about that too.

Without countermeasures, conservative CDC estimates are around 200k deaths in the U.S. Obviously valuing a life is complicated, but office of management and budget values a life at around $9 million. So that equals about $1.8 trillion for the dead. Without countermeasures, conservative CDC estimates are around 160 million infected in the U.S. Not sure how to value that, and it would vary widely from patient to patient. But if we say $2000 is a reasonable average, that's $320 Billion. And then of course there's lost productivity and assorted other impacts that are associated with half of the country's population getting sick in a short period of time.

But ultimately, draconian measures are disruptive. Shitloads of people getting sick and dying is also disruptive. Seems like we're kinda fucked either way, but I would assume people that are smarter than me have concluded that taking somewhat draconian measures is the lesser of the two evils.

[The Suit]

Most of the Bay Area is about to go on lockdown. https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-po...y-15135014.php

[KQ]

You do not fully appreciate how exponential growth works, or the fragility of the carrying capacity of the healthcare system. It took about a month to go from ~10 cases to ~2,000 cases (known, actual number likely much higher) with cases doubling every ~2.5 days. With no intervention, in another month those 2,000 cases become 50-100+ million cases. Hospitals massively overwhelmed, people start dying from non-virus causes (trauma, heart attacks, etc.) who would have lived otherwise because they can't get treated--it gets really bad, really fast.

Oh... I'm sorry your wife is going through such stress. Have you hugged her today? I bet she could use a good cuddle on the couch with you while you watch a chick flick like "When Harry Met Sally" or something like that. Such fretful times.

we'll know we did the right thing if morons are still healthy and arguing that we were too strict after we ride through it

Fauci said if you think you're being overly cautious then you're probably doing it just about right (or something along those lines)

[huckbucket]

It took about a month to go from ~10 cases to ~2,000 cases (known, actual number likely much higher) with cases doubling every ~2.5 days.

I've seen a number that's closer to 5-6 days, FYI.

[The AD]

Been having to be a parent to my parents right now is frustrating.

Mom can not understand that she can not behave the way she did last week.

Told her at this rate both her and dad will get sick and very little can be done for them.

My parents understand this is serious, but they are also chafing a little bit at changing their routines. For example my dad has still been going down to the community center gym every morning.

[basinbeater]

Yeah, lots of hugs, and we have been watching family friendly movies like the legend of Ricky Bobby. 7yo loves that one. Shake and bake!

sent from Utah.

[muted]

Take the marker and write 'REDRUM' on a mirror. I'm sure she will have a laugh about it.

Oh... I'm sorry your wife is going through such stress. Have you hugged her today? I bet she could use a good cuddle on the couch with you while you watch a chick flick like "When Harry Met Sally" or something like that. Such fretful times.)

Maybe listen to KQ instead of me.

[huckbucket]

Press play. Again, without a complete testing picture, the death rate is probably on the high side.

https://yyahn.com/covid19/

[Mofro261]

Based on the #cases and morbidity rates, we should probably copy whatever Germany is doing.