Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Lone Star]

So why is "Spanish Flu" = ok, but "Chinese Flu" = not ok? I mean it DID come from there... along with SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc.

I mean how many worldwide pandemics can those guys keep kicking off before we can stop having to be so politically correct?

Until the Chinese government is willing to do SOMETHING about their vile "wet markets," then we get to talk some trash, ok?

Do you have taste buds in the back of your throat?

If so, what does Hannity's dick taste like?

[iceman]

Anybody who's been paying any attention at all on this site for the past ~15 years knows BMills is not a Hannity guy, or even a political guy at all (on here at least), so kindly fuck off Lone Star.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

worthwhile continued learning, cooking edition:

https://www.timeout.com/los-angeles/...box=1584394033

[skiing-in-jackson]

My email box sure blew up.

Every company who has ever had my email has sent out a series of emails about the virus. More email than I can read. The plus side? I get to remove myself from a bunch of mailing lists.

[Cono Este]

Day 37, the maggots turned on each other.

Oh wait, that’s every day.

Carry on

I’m calling this Day 3 in my journal.

Imagine day 37, after so many hourly workers were laid off, parents locked inside with their kids, alcoholism booming? And that assuming they don’t shut off the deliveries of food to the stores or shut off the internet.

One way or another, It’s going to get nasty out there.


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[SoVT Joey]

Would you prefer he call it the Kung flu?

Best comment yet. How you holding out up there in Derry. Rutland Hannaford was good yesterday as long as you eat healthy. And don’t need to poop. But they were stocked decent.


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[Benny Profane]

I’m calling this Day 3 in my journal.

Imagine day 37, after so many hourly workers were laid off, parents locked inside with their kids, alcoholism booming? And that assuming they don’t shut off the deliveries of food to the stores or shut off the internet.

One way or another, It’s going to get nasty out there.


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That sounds like a good argument for Pa. closing liquor stores.

[spanghew]

So why is "Spanish Flu" = ok, but "Chinese Flu" = not ok? I mean it DID come from there... along with SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc.

I mean how many worldwide pandemics can those guys keep kicking off before we can stop having to be so politically correct?

Until the Chinese government is willing to do SOMETHING about their vile "wet markets," then we get to talk some trash, ok?

Fuck you


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[powdork]

Mofro, I know you're not an epidemiologist, but I'd be interested in your take on this article that Huckbucket posted a link to. While ge didn't go so far as to say he agreed, he didn't say he disagreed either. fwiw I think it's important https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

One thing I found at fault with it is that they used 7 deaths for the Diamond Princess. At one point I noticed an Diamond Princess case was counted as an Australian death. I contacted the folks at worldometers and asked about this

No, he wasn't counted in the Diamond Princess totals. Only in the Australia
ones.
Criteria being where the person was tested positive: in the country of
origin or on the ship.
For the very interesting analysis that you suggested, we will need to track
and count all cases which originated from the ship but were then counted in
other countries, and add them back to the sample, which indeed would be the
most representative to date.

Point being, just 1 more death changes the stats completely there and if there were three more deaths uncounted much moreso. Also there are still some not out of the woods yet there.

[KQ]

My email box sure blew up.

Every company who has ever had my email has sent out a series of emails about the virus. More email than I can read. The plus side? I get to remove myself from a bunch of mailing lists.

Yeah, is crazy the companies that want to let me know how much they care about their employees
Great but unnecessary for me.

[Ted Striker]

US/Canada border closed for "non-essential travel"

[rideit]

Ok, you are moran too. Never adding much except the opportunity to pile on the snark or lame joke.

What can I say, I’m a dad, it’s in my nature.
Are you Ron Johnson, too?
Flicking pebbles, son, flicking pebbles.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

If you kids want to stop the bickering and sniping, that's a fantastic link I posted above.

[gretch6364]

We have surpassed 200,000 cases, double the 100,000 as of March 6th.

So it took two weeks to double. Seemed like at the beginning of this, many were saying the cases would double each day, 80% of the world would be infected, millions would die. So far we are at 8,000 deaths.

I understand there are probably a ton of unreported cases, but can't imagine there are many unreported deaths. The article that I read with these stats tried to be all dramatic.."THE NUMBER OF REPORTED CASES HAS DOUBLED IN ONLY TWO WEEKS!"

If in another two weeks we are sitting at 400,000 cases and 16,000 deaths world wide, I would say we are doing pretty good containing it.

[Timberridge]

That sounds like a good argument for Pa. closing liquor stores.

The NJ border town stores are the recipients of all this displaced demand.

[rideit]

We have surpassed 200,000 cases, double the 100,000 as of March 6th.

So it took two weeks to double. Seemed like at the beginning of this, many were saying the cases would double each day, 80% of the world would be infected, millions would die. So far we are at 8,000 deaths.

I understand there are probably a ton of unreported cases, but can't imagine there are many unreported deaths. The article that I read with these stats tried to be all dramatic.."THE NUMBER OF REPORTED CASES HAS DOUBLED IN ONLY TWO WEEKS!"

If in another two weeks we are sitting at 400,000 cases and 16,000 deaths world wide, I would say we are doing pretty good containing it.

I read this as validation for the measures that are being taken, do I have that right?

[Mofro261]

Mofro, I know you're not an epidemiologist, but I'd be interested in your take on this article that Huckbucket posted a link to. While ge didn't go so far as to say he agreed, he didn't say he disagreed either. fwiw I think it's important https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

he has some good points and it is important to consider that 8/10 that do test positive will have mild disease. I'm not sure modeling on the Diamond Princess is relevent anymore because as of Mar17 there are 18 countries with more cases than the Diamond princess, and collectively, there have been hundreds of thousands of tests run thus far.

"If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams."

Sars-CoV-2 is AS transmissible as the Flu, potentially higher, which is estimated to hit ~1 in 5 people each year, 35-50 million to result in that 12,000-60000 deaths/year. Bump that 1% COVID-19 to 20% and run the numbers as was down by the UK group and suddenly "just like flu" doesn't look so good even with a 0.3% mortality rate. This isn't going to be a blip and then go away anytime soon. Plus it's important to get that it now flu AND Sars-2 that are circulating, worse than just flu, there are some reported cases of co-infection too. It is going to be really hard to stop due to active spread in cases with very mild symptoms.

Of course my opinion is jaded because I do the vaccine and diagnostic side and this project landed in my lap mid-Jan which cratered my ski season before the lifts closed in down for good.

[liv2ski]

If in another two weeks we are sitting at 400,000 cases and 16,000 deaths world wide, I would say we are doing pretty good containing it.

Yup, but at a huge cost to so many and how long will we have to keep this shit up? As soon as the world tries to get back to normal will it come back with a mutated vengeance? This could be an ongoing problem for awhile.

[The AD]

US/Canada border closed for "non-essential travel"

Is Canadians coming to the U.S. for gas considered essential or not?

[Brock Landers]

We have surpassed 200,000 cases, double the 100,000 as of March 6th.

So it took two weeks to double. Seemed like at the beginning of this, many were saying the cases would double each day, 80% of the world would be infected, millions would die. So far we are at 8,000 deaths.

I understand there are probably a ton of unreported cases, but can't imagine there are many unreported deaths. The article that I read with these stats tried to be all dramatic.."THE NUMBER OF REPORTED CASES HAS DOUBLED IN ONLY TWO WEEKS!"

If in another two weeks we are sitting at 400,000 cases and 16,000 deaths world wide, I would say we are doing pretty good containing it.

I’ll take the over since test kits are just maybe starting to roll out. Can’t confirm cases without the kits.

The paradox of course is that some people say wtf was that all about! It’s the flu! Why did we need to quarantine/distancing/shut down for xx,xxx deaths!!! And the others say the shutting down kept numbers to xxx,xxx,xxx cases and XX,xxx deaths!

And we will never ever ever ever know who is right. But it WILL be political.

[rideit]

The quote I read was
“We May never know if taking these precautions was effective...but we would certainly know if not taking these precautions wasn’t”
Or something like that

[Brock Landers]

Well put

[Danno]

I read this as validation for the measures that are being taken, do I have that right?

yet he has been someone complaining repeatedly about the overreaction.

And his analysis doesn't seem to understand exponential growth.

[The Tortoise]

Anybody who's been paying any attention at all on this site for the past ~15 years knows BMills is not a Hannity guy, or even a political guy at all (on here at least), so kindly fuck off Lone Star.

In Lone Stars defense, he was quoting AustinFromSA. Who deserved it.

[Bunion 2020]

But it WILL be political.

I award you Understatement of the Day and perhaps the week.