Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Deebased]

Deebased: "Social Distancing without substantial understanding of how long the virus lives on surfaces, viral load required for transmittal, climate impact, etc means its hopefully a best guess. "

-yeah no shit . We should be driven by the precautionary principle that reasonable steps to reduce risk should not await scientific certainty.

"We should as in the past isolate the most vulnerable: the weak, frail, elderly and their caretakers. Everyone else should just go bowling."

-So not "just let it run it's course" - gotcha

Or just follow successful patterns from bygone pandemics.

Did you have anything to add besides lets buy time and hope the virus doesn't mutate significantly? (Already happened based on the sequencing coming out of Brazil)

[huckbucket]

We back in bidness with the attachments

You might argue that it's virtually impossible to have a new outbreak on the scale of the bubonic plague, but just take a look at the death toll inflicted by HIV. It's staggering.

[Benny Profane]

Attachment 324420

And the company recommends filling old bottles with your urine to replicate the refreshing cold brew at home.

[huckbucket]

Hopefully back to our daily updates now that I can post pics again.

[Rideski]

It’s the slowest motion train wreck hurricane I’ve ever seen.

[Adolf Allerbush]

End of Feb is when both countries started to see the inception of the exponential curve...shrug

You can move the goal posts if you like, but that doesn't change the facts of the matter, so my point stands. Sweden first COVID-19 case, Feb 4. USA first COVID-19 case, Jan 20. They're 2-3 weeks behind us in this whole shindig. They have a higher death rate than us, yet they arguably have a healthier population and universal HC, so one would think they could attack this a little better than us. Maybe you're right, maybe they'll end up having a lower death rate after all said and done. I don't trust the numbers being told to us by this current administration...I don't think anyone knows the whole picture to be even able to make a valid comparison at this moment between the US and Sweden, or anywhere for that matter because we've done fuckall for testing..same with the Swedes.

To make a claim that Sweden is nailing the response to this thing at this point is uniformed at best.

[bennymac]

Or just follow successful patterns from bygone pandemics.

Did you have anything to add besides lets buy time and hope the virus doesn't mutate significantly? (Already happened based on the sequencing coming out of Brazil)

You want to model off previous pandemics? Well ok then. When the Spanish flu mutated those that had already become immune were still immune to the new mutation. Since, to you we can treat all pandemics the same - that means no worries about mutations! This epidemiology stuff is so simple. I'm sure doctors say to you 'How do you know so much about this? Maybe you have a natural ability.

Do you have anything to add besides your tough talk " My espoused view point is we should just let it run its course (even though I don't mean that but maybe do some of what Sweden is doing)"

[wooley12]

Same old deeb

[splat]

Take a look at what the Spanish Flu did to Denver due to Trump-like politicians who wanted to get things up and running again, only to have two spikes, the second being even worse than the first. They blamed it on immigrants, too.

[Benny Profane]

It’s the slowest motion train wreck hurricane I’ve ever seen.

But, look at the market yesterday! We're through this and on the other side! Well, soon, right? Pack your lunch pail, it's back to work!

[bennymac]

You guys don’t get it though. It’s not just his viewpoint....it’s his “espoused viewpoint”. So you know when he says it’s “right in a big way” he really means it. Almost Bigly right.

[Deebased]

You guys don’t get it though. It’s not just his viewpoint....it’s his “espoused viewpoint”. So you know when he says it’s “right in a big way” he really means it. Almost Bigly right.

Or The typical #mefirst humdrum of the unmoneyed septuagenarians is tiresome.

I get it you're saving the world well at least one Benny at a time.

[Patarero]

Let's just recap the post I responded to:



Do we really think a random sampling is the answer here? If it was a systematic sampling of all Ohio citizens that's a different story and one that would make more sense to me. Basically I have a shit load of questions in regards to what type of testing Ohio is planning to implement, since that info is currently not readily available with an online search.

What are the parameters of testing?
What test are they performing - the 15 minute test or the ~4-5 day test? What's the accuracy of the tests?
What happens when a person tests negative, they're off the hook free to go back to their normal routine? (obviously not, but you know that's the attitude thousands of people are going to have)
Are they repeating tests for negative results? Negative test, come back in a week and get retested?

There are a lot of holes with testing the general no symptom/asymptomatic population. What, a week ago we didn't even have the ability to test people with minor symptoms. Maybe we should start there instead of administering tests to people with no symptoms at all. We need that antibody test now. At least that provides a baseline for who should be getting tested repeatedly.

TLDR: my two major beefs with random testing the population is the potential positive feedback loop it will create with people thinking they're in the clear and the pulling of resources from where they need to be focused. I could be wrong on point two, but like I said, literally a week ago we had a problem testing people with actual symptoms. Maybe that's changed by now.

You're not thinking about random testing correctly. It's the only way to get a handle on percent of population actually exposed. Informs models. We all know there are more infected people than what the numbers portray, but how many more is the question. This is a start to answering this question, if they can pull it off properly.

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[bennymac]

Or The typical #mefirst humdrum of the unmoneyed septuagenarians is tiresome.

I get it you're saving the world well at least one Benny at a time.

divide by half then add 7 figures and for the first time today you might just be right

[old goat]

A reminder to the "just-let-it-run-its-course-and-get-it-over-with" crowd--in that scenario in addition to truck drivers that were mentioned--think cops, emts, health care workers, grocery workers, the people who keep the lights on and the water running, the people who process the unemployment claims and small business loans, the people who bury and cremate the dead, the people who keep the internet running (imagine the panic if there if people aren't getting any information) I could go on and on. Even if only a small fraction of those folks die at least half of the rest will be off work sick for weeks at a time over a very short period of time. And at least half the nonessential workers who've gone back to work will be off sick as well. People will be dying at home and lying in the streets.

The reason to drag this thing out is to prevent a total collapse of civilized society (and American society as well) because once it falls apart it will be very hard to put back together. You want the economy to be hibernating, not dead. Life is marginally tolerable now --yeah a shitload of people can't pay their bills but with a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures and if the unemployment checks and small business loans can get processed the vast majority of people will have a roof over their head, heat, electric, water and food. Eventually all the money that's being borrowed to keep this going is going to have to be paid back and that will be a bitch--no way to do it without going back to tax rates like the 50;s (a very prosperous era), but it's doable. But if the lights go out and people aren't eating things will be very very nasty.

I'm sure people have modeled various pandemic scenarios--the "flattened curver" scenario vs the "taking it on the chin" scenario and a bunch of others as well. They may not be telling the public the outcomes of the various scenarios but they're telling the pols--and at least some are listening which is why most of us are staying home.

Saw a thing on PBS about the middle east--a lot of those countries have much stricter and better enforced stay at home policies than we do. They know they have no choice given their rudimentary health care system. Even the Israelis seem to be enforcing a stricter policy than us, and if there's anyone who likes to be told what to do less than us it's the Israelis. A "stiff-necked" people as it says in the bible.

[mock1]

A reminder to the "just-let-it-run-its-course-and-get-it-over-with" crowd--in addition to truck drivers that were mentioned--think cops, emts, health care workers, grocery workers, the people who keep the lights on and the water running, the people who process the unemployment claims and small business loans, the people who bury and cremate the dead, the people who keep the internet running (imagine the panic if there if people aren't getting any information) I could go on and on. Even if only a small fraction of those folks die at least half of the rest will be off work sick for weeks at a time over a very short time. And at least half the nonessential workers who've gone back to work will be off sick as well. People will be dying at home and lying in the streets.

The reason to drag this thing out is to prevent a total collapse of civilized society (and American society as well) because once it falls apart it will be very hard to put back together. You want the economy to be hibernating, not dead. Life is marginally tolerable now --yeah a shitload of people can't pay their bills but with a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures and if the unemployment checks and small business loans can get processed the vast majority of people will have a roof over their head, heat, electric, water and food. Eventually all the money that's being borrowed to keep this going is going to have to be paid back and that will be a bitch--no way to do it without going back to tax rates like the 50;s (a very prosperous era), but it's doable. But if the lights go out and people aren't eating things will be very very nasty.

Tax corporations more and tax churches.

[neufox47]

We might need that ditch after all.

[Rideski]

Good points OG. Obv I’m not in the take it on the chin camp.


To comment on this thought:

Saw a thing on PBS about the middle east--a lot of those countries have much stricter and better enforced stay at home policies than we do. They know they have no choice given their rudimentary health care system. Even the Israelis seem to be enforcing a stricter policy than us, and if there's anyone who likes to be told what to do less than us it's the Israelis. A "stiff-necked" people as it says in the bible.

India shut down businesses and has millions of people on the move. Africa hasn’t done any stay at home that I know of.

Population Africa: 1,216,000,000
Population India: 1,339,000,000

[Sparky]

Benny, Fuck off sanctimonious prick

[mcski]

A high school friend of mine lives in Cypress. They are allowed 1 person out of the house for essential errands per day. Grocery, pharm, doctor type stuff. They send a text to the local cops to get permission and if stopped without permission is 300 euros or go to jail.

[evdog]

Curious how this is implemented. Doubt the average Coloradbro sees the announcement, and certainly no New Yorker will see it. Do they have checkpoints? Airport closed? Can Gunnisinians leave and return?

If this goes on into summer there are going to be a lot of bummed #vanlifers. Locals will have pretty quiet trails all to themselves.

Saw a thing on PBS about the middle east--a lot of those countries have much stricter and better enforced stay at home policies than we do. They know they have no choice given their rudimentary health care system. Even the Israelis seem to be enforcing a stricter policy than us, and if there's anyone who likes to be told what to do less than us it's the Israelis. A "stiff-necked" people as it says in the bible.

Came across this YT channel yesterday. This girl was on a moto trip, now trying to get home from Peru. Interesting view from South America. Tons of police/military checkpoints.

Vid before this shows her 2 weeks in isolation following lockdown. Being the only foreigner in town locals were suspicious she may have been sick which got her worried for her safety so made arrangements to GTFO.

[bobz]

Things are getting weird on the PPE and ventilator front.

Days after the Trump admin asserted that federal medical supplies are "our stockpile" and "not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use", both states and companies (Kaiser, in particular) are claiming that the feds are intercepting their shipments.

For weeks, the Trump administration pushed states to procure their own ventilators and protective gear, like masks, gloves and face shields. But a new effort by the administration to create a hybrid system of distribution — divided between the federal government, local officials and private health care companies — has led to new confusion, bordering on disarray, and charges of confiscation.

This could be a good thing, depending on how much we trust the Trump crew to manage supplies effectively. Or, you know, maybe it's just the next chapter in an epic clusterfuck.

[Meathelmet]

We should as in the past isolate the most vulnerable: the weak, frail, elderly and their caretakers. Everyone else should just go bowling.

In essence, Sweden's gotten it right in a big way. They're going to take a 3-5% economic hit, haven't rolled out trillions of new debt nor are they experiencing a 35% drop in GDP.

Deebased go Brrrrrrr.

First, Sweden have "not gotten it right". Yesterday 71 new deaths (almost same as Norways total, 3 times higher than Finlands total), up to 477.
Health personnel are livid at health Czar because healthcare is collapsing, government paralysed because they cant/wont rock the boat due to the legislation.
Den/Nor/Fin talking about easing up the restrictions after easter as the containment has been quite successful and R has dropped below 1.
Sweden will instead be in the world of pain as the warm weather spell has people massing up in public spaces and having their 'love in the time of cholera' moment.

Secondly, the isolation of " the most vulnerable: the weak, frail, elderly" has failed miserably. Most, if not all institutions have been infected in the last few days...and you can imagine what the end results will be as the ICU spots are almost full already.

And economy?? Well, aint you one exceptional Nostradamus? Even the Swedes are not as optimistic as you, and they are optimistic by nature. Pity that nobody else is sharing their sentiment. They are fucked. Fucked like all their neighbours. Will they be more or less fucked is to be seen.
But that is sure that nobody is putting bets in at the moment about what the end result will be.

Well, apart from you, that is.

[Core Shot]

Hotter than yours.

I’d send you nude pics of my mom with Obama’s mom but my mom wasn’t there.
But lee Ann Dunham was kinda hot in her day.

[My Pet Powder Goat]

Bojo moved to intensive care - his odds of surviving covid just got a lot worse

Wasn't he the one that proposed England "take it on the chin" for dealing with covid outbreak?

It'd be amaaaaazing if the same thing happened to Trump but we all know that irony is dead in America.

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