Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Benny Profane]

That had/has a very specific purpose and nobody is "locked in". They are there to help cleanup and to keep order in what has the potential to be a bad situation. They are not there to restrict peoples movements or to begin a martial law situation. It's New Rochelle not Mt Vermin.

Whoops, yeah, mix those guys up a lot. But, hey, like I said, practice. Trying not to freak people out, but, war games. This is something the National Guard has not had to deal with since the 60s riots. Civil unrest in America's most unequal city. It could get interesting. he just wants to be ready to act if the shit starts flying.

[Benny Profane]

I don't need or want my parents money. I hope they live to spend every dime they earned. If there's any left, it will go to my kids. I hope I die before I get old.
You're a very selfish person, you probably can't understand what I say.

I'm selfish? You presented an argument for culling the herd by discarding old people. I mean, who needs those icky smelly useless things?

[gravitylover]

Whoops, yeah, mix those guys up a lot. But, hey, like I said, practice. Trying not to freak people out, but, war games. This is something the National Guard has not had to deal with since the 60s riots. Civil unrest in America's most unequal city. It could get interesting. he just wants to be ready to act if the shit starts flying.

To be honest I want him to be prepared for that too. While I'm not a big fan of his he has been handling this very well. Did you watch any of his morning press conferences? They've been very good and he's been (acting like) a real leader, I didn't think he had it in him. Today he and Supreme Leader have actually been complimenting each other and talking about how they're working together, it's weird.

[GiBo]

You may be right, but it's hard to take someone named "Bozo T. Clown" from Funkytown seriously.

Ok, that was funny.

But Bozo does bring the facts.

[KQ]

That's great of you, but what if you depended on that income to provide for your family and kids and pay your mortgage? You can see how this gets a bit sticky at some point? And its easy to impose restrictions on everyone, the hard thing will be to determine when everyone can go back in the water after this. If its an extended period of time, most families don't have the savings to weather that.

but sacrificing the old and infirm isn't going to help this at least not the way I read it. We're really in a sticky wicket. We have no idea what this virus is going to do in the long run. All we know right now is that it spreads quickly and easily and is lethal, more so to some groups but potentially to all. Governments and health organizations are doing the best they can making decisions based on what they've seen and reassessing as things move forward.


I read this this morning and found it insightful but my knowledge base on this subject is limited. I'm just trying to understand as best I can.

Mitigation and suppression
Epidemiological studies are based on modeling from available data, and rely on assumptions that can later prove false, and generate predictions that can appear alarming as they deal with the pandemic's entire term. This is one of many models. While mitigation "focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread," the study explains, suppression, "aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely."

The study says "the most effective mitigation strategy" would still lead to hospitals -- even at surge capacity -- needing eight times as many intensive care unit beds as they could provide in the UK. Yet the study also notes that "optimal mitigation policies" -- such as combining the home isolation of suspected cases, home quarantine of those living with suspected cases and social distancing among the elderly and others at high risk of severe disease -- might reduce peak health care demand in the UK by two-thirds and deaths by half.

"For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option," the report concludes.

For the study, researchers used a simulation model that was originally developed to support pandemic flu planning and modified it to examine the impact of certain scenarios for the coronavirus pandemic. Their models show that under a mitigation strategy: "even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US." It was not immediately clear what length of time researchers assumed to be the full course of the pandemic.


The study concludes that the suppression strategy will likely lead to the disease quickly spreading again once these measures are lifted, and that such measures will be needed periodically until a vaccine is found. It says: "The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package -- or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission -- will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) -- given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed."

Other health experts welcomed the study but reiterated how many uncertainties the coronavirus pandemic was generating. The publication of this evidence remains "important" and "useful," but "there are still huge uncertainties around any future estimates, reinforcing just how difficult decision-making is during a pandemic," Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom, said in a written statement released by the UK-based Science Media Centre on Tuesday.

"It would still be useful to know the full set of evidence that is informing decision-making, both in the UK and across other countries. I'd really like to see a dashboard, a little like the visualisations of case numbers and deaths per country, that stores the reasoning behind each country's government policy," Head wrote. "This should cover not just the UK, but as many countries as possible. An open access evidence base is not as headline-grabbing as discussing mortality rates, but no less important."


WHO: Countries need 'blended strategy' for epidemics
The World Health Organization, which was not involved in the new study, notes that while there is still much to learn about the novel coronavirus, older adults and people with pre-existing medical conditions are at higher risk of developing serious illness.

According to WHO, "data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation."


Last week, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a media briefing that countries should tailor their responses to address the spread of disease seen specifically in their nations.
"This is an uneven epidemic at the global level. Different countries are in different scenarios, requiring a tailored response. It's not about containment or mitigation -- which is a false dichotomy. It's about both," Ghebreyesus said during the briefing.

"All countries must take a comprehensive blended strategy for controlling their epidemics and pushing this deadly virus back," he said in part. "Countries that continue finding and testing cases and tracing their contacts not only protect their own people, they can also affect what happens in other countries and globally."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/healt...udy/index.html

[rideit]

Oh, shit.

https://www.businessinsider.de/inter...0-3/?r=US&IR=T

[KQ]

Luck of the Irish will keep the virus away!

Soap up with Jameson’s?
Expensive, but effective.
Bushmill’s in a pinch.

Bushmills is only for washing your ass.

Drink it first and it'll wash your ass on the way out.

I love you guys! You keep me laughing and that's good medicine.

[Benny Profane]

To be honest I want him to be prepared for that too. While I'm not a big fan of his he has been handling this very well. Did you watch any of his morning press conferences? They've been very good and he's been (acting like) a real leader, I didn't think he had it in him. Today he and Supreme Leader have actually been complimenting each other and talking about how they're working together, it's weird.

I agree. And I agree that Supreme Leader has been shocked into acting somewhat presidential after the stock market crashed. He was just muscling Cuomo into dropping state charges against him and his family, but, this new working together thing is kind of amazing. Trump realizes that he can't do this hoax bullshit anymore.

Interesting piece about Cuomo. in the NYT. Sometimes circumstances elevate politicians.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/b...sultPosition=1

[riser4]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/us/ch...rnd/index.html

[skiballs]

Oh, shit.

https://www.businessinsider.de/inter...0-3/?r=US&IR=T

Motherfucker! Does this mean the new sex swing won't be showing up soon?
No live music and no new sex toys, take me now caronaviris, take me now.

[huckbucket]

Updated: Number of new cases tracking in the US right on the exponential ....

[powpig]

This has been discussed previously but really quite sparingly.

Almost 2 weeks ago, it was discovered there are at least 2 different identified strains of this thing. An aggressive "L-type" strain and a slightly less so "S-type" strain.

https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/coron...9-wuhan-china/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coro...-covid-19.html

There has been enough testing done in the US to determine which strain is predominant but I can find absolutely no mention anywhere. How about Italy, Japan, Singapore, South Korea etc?

Any entity (or reporter) who believes they're qualified to be reporting positive results (CDC, WHO or otherwise) without including this pertinent info is either unaware of multiple strains and therefore unqualified IMO to be reporting, or deliberately withholding vital details which means they have an agenda other than truthful reporting and that's called fake news.

[Adolf Allerbush]

Updated: Number of new cases tracking in the US right on the exponential ....

So, the US with it's 327M is tracking to have the same total number of cases as Italy, a country of 61M people? If so, that sort of seems like we're doing a pretty decent job. I'm sure I'm misunderstanding the graph though.

ETA: and spain, with 47M people, is doing a terrible job...and Singapore, $6M people has way less cases, garsh, could it have anything to do with there being far fewer people there?

[Dantheman]

IOC continues to prove what a terrible organization they are.

https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/...virus-outbreak

[up an down]

So you're a dumb fuck Bernie bro who thinks the nordic countries are socialist.

All you needed to say. Go give Benny a hand job before he gets Covid or at least don't lick your hands afterwards.

Is that what your National Socialist Movement of Norway and Nordic Resistance Movement friends tell you ?

[up an down]

IOC continues to prove what a terrible organization they are.

https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/...virus-outbreak

The IOC elite does not give refunds of the bribes they receive...so the show must go on.

[Cono Este]

How dumb are we? All these supplies we are short are made over in China, and what inventory we had here people bought up and shipped back to China.

there’s going to be a lot of lessons from this one.


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[Adolf Allerbush]

How dumb are we? All these supplies we are short are made over in China, and what inventory we had here people bought up and shipped back to China.

there’s going to be a lot of lessons from this one.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

I don't know, the folks I know who stockpiled TP sure as shit (pun intended) didn't ship it over to China

[SirVicSmasher]

https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...-recovery.html


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[Benny Profane]

IOC continues to prove what a corrupt and immoral organization they are.

https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/...virus-outbreak

Fify

[MultiVerse]

So, the US with it's 327M is tracking to have the same total number of cases as Italy, a country of 61M people? If so, that sort of seems like we're doing a pretty decent job. I'm sure I'm misunderstanding the graph though.

ETA: and spain, with 47M people, is doing a terrible job...and Singapore, $6M people has way less cases, garsh, could it have anything to do with there being far fewer people there?

The U.S. is testing many fewer people per capita than other countries. As of March 12, it was 23 per million in the U.S., versus 826 per million in Italy, and 3,692 per million in South Korea so we don't really know how we're doing, relatively speaking.

[KQ]

Wow. Lucky them.

Yanno I get that we're all stressed and dare I say scared but please quit with the sarcasm and "what about this person and that person and him and her...." If we all do our part we can make a difference. Quit scoffing at the little things because together they add up to bigger better things.

I know it will never be enough for some people but we have to try.

[huckbucket]

So, the US with it's 327M is tracking to have the same total number of cases as Italy, a country of 61M people? If so, that sort of seems like we're doing a pretty decent job. I'm sure I'm misunderstanding the graph though.

ETA: and spain, with 47M people, is doing a terrible job...and Singapore, $6M people has way less cases, garsh, could it have anything to do with there being far fewer people there?

Before the virus reaches a certain level of penetration in a country, the size of the country has less influence on the slope of the curve than the immediate proximity of neighbors, towns and cities. For example, in Wuhan only 59K/11M = 0.5% of the population was infected, so it doesn't matter that China as a nation has 23X the population that Italy does.

[Cono Este]

I don't know, the folks I know who stockpiled TP sure as shit (pun intended) didn't ship it over to China

At Lowe’s they told me they were cleaned out a month Ago. Mostly Asians. They bought everything and then had the manager call other stores. Which makes sense because they had a real problem back home, relatives etc. I’m not stirring up hate, they probably had family. A shortage, or sky high prices. I’d have done the same if a relative in England asked me to.


But someone here, other than the preppers, should have seen that coming. Our hospital staff could be totally fucked.


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[Meadow Skipper]

Whoops, yeah, mix those guys up a lot. But, hey, like I said, practice. Trying not to freak people out, but, war games. This is something the National Guard has not had to deal with since the 60s riots. Civil unrest in America's most unequal city. It could get interesting. he just wants to be ready to act if the shit starts flying.

I kind of hate to interrupt when you’re rolling with your apocalyptic know-it-all shtick, but do I have to point out how wrong you are about that? Start with Rodney King.