Results 11,551 to 11,575 of 41810
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04-08-2020, 10:35 AM #11551
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04-08-2020, 10:39 AM #11552
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04-08-2020, 10:40 AM #11553
Ooh I'd hate to catch something as contagious as diabetes.
Move upside and let the man go through...
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04-08-2020, 10:41 AM #11554
Received a text last night from a former co-worker back in NJ, who let me know that her boss just passed away from COVID-19. Fever and Friday, dead on Monday. Apparently he had some underlying health issues. Previous cancer survivor in his early 60's.
"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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04-08-2020, 10:41 AM #11555
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04-08-2020, 10:46 AM #11556
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04-08-2020, 10:46 AM #11557
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04-08-2020, 10:48 AM #11558
COVID-19 is only serious if you catch it or have lost your job because of it.
You know the old saying, "if someone else loses their job, it's a recession, but if you lose your job, it's a depression."
Same thing goes for COVID-19.
Be Best!"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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04-08-2020, 10:48 AM #11559
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04-08-2020, 10:49 AM #11560
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04-08-2020, 11:04 AM #11561Funky But Chic
- Join Date
- Sep 2001
- Location
- The Cone of Uncertainty
- Posts
- 49,306
The Alabama numbers are puzzling. All I can think is there was some error, either the last time they ran them or this time, but more likely last time. Last time they were pretty apocalyptic but surrounding states weren't nearly as bad as AL. This time AL is more in line with them. I don't think it's just an improved trend because it's basically night-and-day from before. But what do I know.
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04-08-2020, 11:10 AM #11562
For perspective, the Hocus Potus has a 49% approval rating, and the Chilean president has only 18% (up from 10%). But there is no exponential Covid-19 growth in Chile (with the highest rate of testing in LA).
https://cdn.digital.gob.cl/public_fi...te_Covid19.pdf
Percentage daily increase in detected cases has declined to below 10%, 33 days after the first case.
Deaths are at 48, going up about 10% per day. 60,000 tests have been made, with about 10% testing positive. This is looking like a "success story", but the fat lady ain't sung yet....
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04-08-2020, 11:19 AM #11563Registered User
- Join Date
- Dec 2008
- Location
- Nashville TN
- Posts
- 1,054
Many of the surrounding states have also changed dramatically over the last two models, however. I think a big part of that is that at the time of the early models there was very little to no distancing mandates in those states. As those went into place, the model accounted for it. I don't think that explains all of the change, but I think it is significant.
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04-08-2020, 11:20 AM #11564
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04-08-2020, 11:26 AM #11565
Re Alabama they offer this explanation: 1) they now use a running average of case counts and deaths rather than relying on massive fluctuations due to the way some states report info in batches 2) Non-essential business closures went into effect for Alabama 3) the model makes use of better data for the time from implementation of social distancing to the peak of the epidemic.
What’s New for April 5, 2020: "Even though at the national level the total number of deaths remains fairly unchanged, today’s release introduces substantial changes for several states."
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04-08-2020, 11:45 AM #11566
Some models of potential ICU bed demand coming out of Canada
Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada
https://www.cmaj.ca/content/cmaj/ear...00457.full.pdf
INTERPRETATION: At the peak of COVID19 outbreaks, the need for ICU beds will exceed the total number of ICU beds even with the level of self-isolation at home of mildly symptomatic cases at 40%.
Figure 3 shows that if 40% of mildly symptomatic people self isolate properly (and 80% of more symptomatic are isolated by being in hospital) the peak demand for ICU beds in Canada will be in July. With no proper self isolation of symptomatic people the peak demand will be in late May.
In their interpretation they say:
" A conservative hospital-bed occupancy rate of 80% suggests that the need for critical care may be as much as 13 times higher than the available (unoccupied) ICU beds at the peak of outbreak even with 40% self-isolation."
There are a number of limitations to this paper (some of which you can read about in the link). It also assumes (I think) that ICU bed volumes are staying static (which I doubt they are anywhere in the developed world) and that ICU bed demand continues at historical levels - I would expect there will be less trauma patients (car accidents/work accidents/sports accidents) than normal if a significant portion of the population is staying at home etc.
Smarter people then me can make more use of this. What I took away from this is that the peak demand for the highest levels of medical care may not be coming until the end of May or even into July.
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04-08-2020, 12:07 PM #11567
Agreed, he took a couple ideas a little too far but otherwise a pretty good dude.
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04-08-2020, 12:18 PM #11568
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04-08-2020, 12:47 PM #11569Registered User
- Join Date
- Aug 2013
- Location
- shadow of HS butte
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- 6,439
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04-08-2020, 12:50 PM #11570
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04-08-2020, 12:52 PM #11571
I posted this in the complaint/commiseration thread......Much needed laugh.
https://hes32-ctp.trendmicro.com/wis...b61f523a2b9f96What we have here is an intelligence failure. You may be familiar with staring directly at that when shaving. .
-Ottime
One man can only push so many boulders up hills at one time.
-BMillsSkier
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04-08-2020, 12:56 PM #11572Registered User
- Join Date
- Aug 2007
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- United States of Aburdistan
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- 7,281
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04-08-2020, 01:08 PM #11573
Like Margaret Sanger? You're right!
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04-08-2020, 01:19 PM #11574
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04-08-2020, 01:19 PM #11575
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