Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[jono]

There are "experts" and then there are experts. Listen to an interview with Fauci--"I don't know, I don't know, I don't know." The real experts aren't afraid to say that.

Definitely. The expert halo is just another example of Dunning-Krueger, and of course I'm not saying everyone in medicine is on the wrong side of that--more that those who aren't shouldn't have to suffer under louder "experts" because ill-afforded bad decisions are to be expected in that scenario.

[cat in january]

one of my cousins is a prison guard for one of the county jails here. they just released all the non-violent criminals, or at least the guys (mens prison) with non-serious crimes. He said the prison population is down by something like 50-60%. I didn't get into what sorts of crimes the guys had done that were released, but I assume it's drug dealing/drug use stuff.

SIL works in county jail and they are quietly releasing prisoners with non violent crimes

[Danno]

fuck

son is living with us as just out of marines late fall, he is EMT, looking to get on a FD. just found out his partner is covid positive.

sore throat this morning, son on 14 day quarantine in the house.

Best wishes, mang.

[old goat]

Definitely. The expert halo is just another example of Dunning-Krueger, and of course I'm not saying everyone in medicine is on the wrong side of that--more that those who aren't shouldn't have to suffer under louder "experts" because ill-afforded bad decisions are to be expected in that scenario.

Never heard of Dunning-Kruger (I'm a spelling expert), probably because I'm at the left end. But can't we just call it Trump effect?

[rideit]

(I'm a spelling expert),?

We’ve noticed.

[plugboots]

Anybody watch the Steph Curry and Dr. Fauci live Instagram question and answer session that just ended?
It was really good, and it also kind of proves that essentially anybody could do a better job than this current administration for disseminating correct information.

[The AD]

We have a bathroom I can access from the garage, but all food is brought to me and dirty dishes placed in a bowl

You're a prisoner in your own home. Sounds like a blast Are you going outside at all?

[gretch6364]

Anybody watch the Steph Curry and Dr. Fauci live Instagram question and answer session that just ended?
It was really good, and it also kind of proves that essentially anybody could do a better job than this current administration for disseminating correct information.

One good thing about all this, we may have dodged a pretty big bullet with Biden. Being locked in his basement and doing interviews has not been good for him or his mental health. It seems like everyday he gets more and more confused. Today, he is telling of stories of becoming a teacher after leaving the Senate.

Sanders has also been rambling on incoherently. Can we please come out of this with at least one decent candidate..and no, I am not count Cuomo.

[Toadman]

Anybody watch the Steph Curry and Dr. Fauci live Instagram question and answer session that just ended?
It was really good, and it also kind of proves that essentially anybody could do a better job than this current administration for disseminating correct information.

Did they play a game of HORSE at the end? Does Fauci got game?

[Buster Highmen]

You're a prisoner in your own home. Sounds like a blast Are you going outside at all?

Yes, but the trees to which I'm allergic (alder and maple?) are blooming, so yesterdays walk resulted in last nights snotfest. But we're out in the sticks where virtually everyone is on 5+ acres plots, so no chance of being close to others or touching infected surfaces.

I would like to hug my wife and kids and rumfle the cats, but this is where it is for now.

Condolences, vibes and hope to those of you like PPG and hawkgt who are shafted by this. It's a great opportunity to drop animosity and differences and dig up the strength for compassion.

[plugboots]

Did they play a game of HORSE at the end? Does Fauci got game?

I wanted to see that. Fauci had a nerf hoop in the background

[klauss]

Really?


https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

Author and former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson broke down the bombshell report via Twitter on Thursday morning (view Twitter thread below).

“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.

To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K. Here is some information from the University of Oxford on deaths ranging from 600-13,000 per year:

Influenza (flu) is a very common, highly infectious disease caused by a virus. It can be very dangerous, causing serious complications and death, especially for people in risk groups. In rare cases flu can kill people who are otherwise healthy. In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013, which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09). Flu leads to hundreds of thousands of GP visits and tens of thousands of hospital stays a year.

Berenson continued: “Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased — which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize — which in turn implies it is less dangerous.”

“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.

“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”

Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.

In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude.

[seano732]

fuck

son is living with us as just out of marines late fall, he is EMT, looking to get on a FD. just found out his partner is covid positive.

sore throat this morning, son on 14 day quarantine in the house.

Shit Hawk, hope he can ride it out. If and when this is over, if he's still looking for a job, send me a pm. My Department gives preference to military vets......Oh and I make the hiring recommendations to the Fire Chief. Good luck.

[Art Shirk]

All my best to Hawk and Buster. Hang in there guys

[AK47bp]

Just had to modify my employee exposure tracker in excel to “format as a table” to help navigate.


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[liv2ski]

Really?


https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model

The Daily Wire? From reading the comments, sounds like it is geared to the Dumptards, so I will disregard the article. YRMV.

[Mr. Mike]

geez, that's a bombshell.

[Buster Highmen]

All my best to Hawk and Buster. Hang in there guys

How's things in avant nick alley?

[Mr. Mike]

I know my wife and I are worried about getting sick. She actually hasn't vaped in days and I always have a slight dry cough, as I am allergic to my dog Gunther. So ya, popping vitamin C, gargling with Listerine and trying to avoid the world as much as possible. Having been blessed as a winner of the lottery of life, I would like another 20 years before going back to my prior state. I hope KQ is ok, as I haven't seen her post for awhile.

I communicated with KQ a couple of days ago, and, at least then, she was fine. Just decided to take a break from the forum for a while.

[Buster Highmen]

Really?


https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model

If all that's true, then why are certain people, especially the critical young and healthy ones, dying?

[uglymoney]

I'm bored with all the covid concomitant accusations and narcissism oozing from the usual orifaces. I expect the stress will accentuate conduct, both good and bad. No surprise.

I'm still working on translating. Are you talking about yourself overanalyzing every run of the nose into the throat and debating who's in charge of the scratchy throat. Is it the nose or is it a decent into a Covid aybss, however severe or mild it might be, or could it just be your brain making you sick because, athough you're not really a germaphobe, this one hits all the anxiety hot buttons, which lowers your immunity, which makes it more likely you'll catch it if you haven't already.

If you do come out and see your wife, then leave the house without doing another 14 days the anxiety starts over.

I'm probably completely off. But worrying about the covid thing might make me lose my mind.

[MultiVerse]

Really?

Good news if it's true, but it appears to be a case of misreporting hypothetical model scenarios as fact:

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coro...study-immunity

Serological tests for the presence of antibodies are what's needed before we can know for sure.

[up an down]

Really?


https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model

If it's true... But the Daily wire is not a trust worthy website... According to Wikipedia... The Daily Wire is an American right-wing,[2] conservative news and opinion website founded in 2015 by political commentator Ben Shapiro,[3] who is the site's editor-in-chief.[4][5]

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[The AD]

The Daily Wire? From reading the comments, sounds like it is geared to the Dumptards, so I will disregard the article. YRMV.

Actual numbers from Italy and Spain lead me to believe the revised numbers are wrong on the other end. The real answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

And if we get out of this thing relatively unscathed the appropriate reaction is that we took the necessary measures (albeit belatedly in most places) and dodged a bullet, not that the reaction was overblown.

[Rideski]

Shit Hawk