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  1. #8751
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,781
    For data junkies

    Very interesting visualizations tracking fatalities and healthcare system utlilization and drawdown state by state.

    Kindly brought to my attention by @Molly Nixon

    Background paper with assumptions http://www.healthdata.org/sites/defa...2v1-Murray.pdf

    Lead paper introduction http://www.healthdata.org/research-a...ays-and-deaths

    Good news is that estimates of US Fatalities throughout summer are less than expected - approx 81,000 fatalities

    NOTE

    - key assumptions are social distancing measures continue.
    - resource rate utilization is variable from state to state. Some states are overwhelmed (NY LA), Some states hold up (WA)
    - data is extrapolated from time-series from Wuhan. Is the Wuhan data accurate?

    ORIGINAL POST BY MOLLY NIXON

    There have been a lot of items circulating with forecasts for COVID-19, but many of them have been hacked together by non-experts (and it turns out this stuff is actually really complicated).

    I happen to work at a world class global health research institution here in Seattle (the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) that specializes in estimating health burden (deaths, cases, etc). We've thrown a team of extremely talented experts at COVID modeling for the past few weeks, and just released the first round of models to the public this morning. This initial release covers daily deaths, hospital-bed days, ICU-days and ventilator-days for every US state for the next 4 months.

    Importantly - this isn't a static model. We are continuing to incorporate huge amounts of new data and the goal is to update the model EVERY DAY. As the epidemic evolves and different control measures are implemented (or not), our forecasts will change in response.

    Our current predictions (from the paper linked below) are:
    "Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6."

    The primary mode for accessing the forecasts is a visual tool (linked below) - it's a little slow at the moment, it's getting a lot of traffic. This tool will be updated to reflect our latest model run. The solid lines indicate our estimates, while the shading denotes uncertainty intervals. Please note that the "United States of America" set of figures is missing the horizontal lines that indicate bed availability (which makes sense, because beds in Connecticut are not useful for patients with COVID in New Mexico). If you look at the state-specific forecasts, they include bed availability.

    If you want all the nitty gritty of the modeling parameters, an accompanying paper has been submitted to medRxiv

  2. #8752
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    1,156
    Quote Originally Posted by huckbucket View Post
    da fuck!?! How does a private company get all of this data?

    https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...28347034767361
    Yeah, thatís disturbing...not that in the back of my mind someone knows every fucking thing/thought I do/have.

  3. #8753
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Posts
    227
    Grasping for any hope.

    In regards to the dailies. As far as deaths; if you track the 20 day line, we are behind Italy, France and Spain and even with China and Iran.

    Quote Originally Posted by My Pet Powder Goat View Post
    developed in close coordination with the Nation's public health officials and scientists,
    That he he even used the words " scientist" and "public health officials".
    Maybe he is bending a little in the right direction?

    Quote Originally Posted by huckbucket View Post
    I understand what they did, what I don't understand is who gave them access to my data.
    The cell companies sell the " anonymous " data.

  4. #8754
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    SLC
    Posts
    1,621
    Quote Originally Posted by Ski220 View Post
    Maybe he is bending a little in the right direction?
    Not a fucking chance. You don't break a 73 year streak of being in the wrong on everything.

  5. #8755
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Middle of the NEK
    Posts
    4,629
    Vermont students are going to be remote schooled for the remainder of the year. My wife (a special ed teacher) is SUPER stressed. There are a lot of individualized cases to manage for her, and trying to get the kids to meet online and make sure they are doing their work is hard.
    Aim for the chopping block. If you aim for the wood, you will have nothing. Aim past the wood, aim through the wood.
    http://tim-kirchoff.pixels.com/

  6. #8756
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    1,156

    Chinese Rat Flu

    Sleeping in this AM...cause...nothing to get up for; and Iíd stayed up too late drinking beer (like now) ;My 9yo couldnít go to sleep (wonder why), I had one of the most bizarre dreams I can remember.
    It involved a stolen Prius and a younger, better looking Kathy Griffin. Iíll spare the details I can remember because Iím trying to forget them
    And then at 7:58 am our cell phones went off with that disturbing alarm, that my brain is wired to think a tornado is coming..but I quickly remember that this a warning for a fucking virus(stay home order). A fucking invisible microbe that could in all likelihood drain my entire life savings and retirement.
    I havenít broken down and cried yet (wifey did tonight)...but not sure I wonít.

  7. #8757
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    4,943
    Anybody else noticing the huge internet lags. My work can't keep up with the demand on their vpn servers. Since all the kids in my county started tele schooling this week, connectivity has gotten really slow.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using TGR Forums mobile app

  8. #8758
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    4,943
    Quote Originally Posted by From_the_NEK View Post
    Vermont students are going to be remote schooled for the remainder of the year. My wife (a special ed teacher) is SUPER stressed. There are a lot of individualized cases to manage for her, and trying to get the kids to meet online and make sure they are doing their work is hard.
    My wife is an SLP and we have slow dsl at home (only thing available for us). She has no idea how it's going to work. One thing, i guess is that IEPs often have services as a % of total hrs of school and districts are often requesting kids to teleschool / homeschool for only a few hrs per day.

    Sent from my SPH-L710 using TGR Forums mobile app

  9. #8759
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    19,720
    Quote Originally Posted by bodywhomper View Post
    Anybody else noticing the huge internet lags. My work can't keep up with the demand on their vpn servers. Since all the kids in my county started tele schooling this week, connectivity has gotten really slow.
    My work sent out an email today telling people to try to reduce their Webex meeting usage. They said peak usage is between 7 am and 9 am Pacific and during that period they are getting 75K users attending Webex meetings!

  10. #8760
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
    Posts
    3,225
    I’m becoming convinced we won’t stop this stuff, there are far too many morons in our society. One of my parts suppliers has instituted the taped lines. They had someone come in and repeatedly approach the counter after being asked to keep distance. After they completed the transaction the guy proceeded to lick the bills given as change and told them they were all idiots for being careful and this was just a hoax.

  11. #8761
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,781
    Apps for contact tracing

    The Economist | Creating the coronopticon https://www.economist.com/node/21782730?frsc=dg%7Ce

  12. #8762
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Portland
    Posts
    13,683
    Quote Originally Posted by huckbucket View Post
    Ask and you shall receive. Just got back from flogging myself on a road ride for 3 hours. Jelly legs.

    US WINS!!!! Most cases worldwide.

    Attachment 322396

    Attachment 322397

    Attachment 322398
    #MAGA

    the crazy motherfucker did it.
    Damn shame, throwing away a perfectly good white boy like that

  13. #8763
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Under a bridge in YakTown waiting for the shuttle to Nachos
    Posts
    704
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    For data junkies

    Very interesting visualizations tracking fatalities and healthcare system utlilization and drawdown state by state.

    Kindly brought to my attention by @Molly Nixon

    Background paper with assumptions http://www.healthdata.org/sites/defa...2v1-Murray.pdf

    Lead paper introduction http://www.healthdata.org/research-a...ays-and-deaths

    Good news is that estimates of US Fatalities throughout summer are less than expected - approx 81,000 fatalities

    NOTE

    - key assumptions are social distancing measures continue.
    - resource rate utilization is variable from state to state. Some states are overwhelmed (NY LA), Some states hold up (WA)
    - data is extrapolated from time-series from Wuhan. Is the Wuhan data accurate?

    ORIGINAL POST BY MOLLY NIXON

    There have been a lot of items circulating with forecasts for COVID-19, but many of them have been hacked together by non-experts (and it turns out this stuff is actually really complicated).

    I happen to work at a world class global health research institution here in Seattle (the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) that specializes in estimating health burden (deaths, cases, etc). We've thrown a team of extremely talented experts at COVID modeling for the past few weeks, and just released the first round of models to the public this morning. This initial release covers daily deaths, hospital-bed days, ICU-days and ventilator-days for every US state for the next 4 months.

    Importantly - this isn't a static model. We are continuing to incorporate huge amounts of new data and the goal is to update the model EVERY DAY. As the epidemic evolves and different control measures are implemented (or not), our forecasts will change in response.

    Our current predictions (from the paper linked below) are:
    "Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6."

    The primary mode for accessing the forecasts is a visual tool (linked below) - it's a little slow at the moment, it's getting a lot of traffic. This tool will be updated to reflect our latest model run. The solid lines indicate our estimates, while the shading denotes uncertainty intervals. Please note that the "United States of America" set of figures is missing the horizontal lines that indicate bed availability (which makes sense, because beds in Connecticut are not useful for patients with COVID in New Mexico). If you look at the state-specific forecasts, they include bed availability.

    If you want all the nitty gritty of the modeling parameters, an accompanying paper has been submitted to medRxiv
    Those are some huge uncertainty intervals...

    Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

  14. #8764
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Posts
    1,156

    Chinese Rat Flu

    Quote Originally Posted by BobMc View Post
    IAfter they completed the transaction the guy proceeded to lick the bills given as change and told them they were all idiots for being careful and this was just a hoax.
    Fuggin bill/bag lickers... that shit always creeped me out even before this. Itís just disgusting.
    I get it, those bags are hard to open..like my dogs poop bags. Get a wet sponge or something.

    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  15. #8765
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Bottom feeding
    Posts
    7,923
    I stole this:
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	IMG_2259.JPG 
Views:	167 
Size:	178.4 KB 
ID:	322462
    Well maybe I'm the faggot America
    I'm not a part of a redneck agenda

  16. #8766
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Tahoe
    Posts
    12,914
    soooo, i'm not sure how this works. my mom has not been doing well, in Sacramento. She lives with my brother. She's 80 and in poor health, but has been deteriorating quickly over the last three days (not eating, or getting out of bed. now getting bed sores). I talked to her three days ago and she was bright and as lucid as she can be these days. She went to the emergency room this morning. Despite her being conscious and responsive, since her breath was shallow and oxygen was low they immediately intubated her and she is now ventilated. I spoke with intensivist this afternoon and she said other less invasive methods would have been normally exhausted first but their protocol now is straight to the ventilator. The impression i got was that she was not happy with this. It also seems counterintuitive unless the idea is to use the vents now since they are still available as opposed to stringing things out with her and putting her on the vent later.
    She does not have any symptoms that would indicate covid, or even a cold or flu. She did have shortness of breath but was at the point where she needs oxygen supplemental on a regular basis before all this.
    Its a sad day but one we have known was coming. I do think the difference in care due to what's going on is fairly striking.
    powdork.com - new and improved, with 20% more dork.

  17. #8767
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    On Vacation for the Duration
    Posts
    12,289
    Vibes.......is too weak. Hang in there.
    A few people feel the rain. Most people just get wet.

  18. #8768
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    san diego
    Posts
    1,838
    Quote Originally Posted by bodywhomper View Post
    Anybody else noticing the huge internet lags.
    Not so much lags as my internet has randomly been going down. It does this normally an annoying amount, but it has gotten much worse this week. Was trying to work on something last night and it went down. Finally came back on an hour or so later. This morning couldn't get it to work at all. Reboot computer, wifi, modem multiple times, nothing. Not a good time as our office is under mandatory closure and you can't just go sit in a cafe all day and work right now. Finally gave up and went to the office. Had to pick up mail and grab some things anyways. Was able to get done some urgent things that needed doing. Internet working at home tonite...

  19. #8769
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Posts
    30,972

  20. #8770
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Down by the river, Terrace, BC
    Posts
    3,297
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    We have a better chance to get it under control.

    Just thought it was an interesting take on how it really is a global problem n


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Perhaps I didn't read this right.. Anyway you (read your country, read your idiot in charge), has totally fucked this up. You don't think so? Post some verifiable data that suggests otherwise.
    ďI tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.Ē
    ― Kurt Vonnegut, A Man Without a Country

    www.mymountaincoop.ca

    This is OUR mountain - come join us!

  21. #8771
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Wa wa..tatic
    Posts
    3,401
    ^was on the page top, 4 pages ago. come on man, keep up

  22. #8772
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Portland
    Posts
    13,683
    Make America Worst Again (MAWA)?

  23. #8773
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    3,061
    Powdork shit man that had to be incredibly difficult. As said above ďvibesĒ is pretty much all we can send yet it seems weak at this juncture. Do know that it sounds like covid is presenting in many different ways and if (and I know thatís an if) thatís what she has early intubation and getting on a ventilator has been shown to be better at saving people then the standard ďexhaust all other options first before intubationĒ way of thinking. Itís not a vent resource issue - itís a ďif this patient fits the stereotype of likely needing a vent do it now not when they are even worseĒ.
    Again not saying Iím agreeing or disagreeing with the hospitals approach - just that you seemed unsure of what they did and I wanted to say that actually matches up with the thinking in a lot of places right now.
    Again vibes to you and your family. Itís likely no solace to you but Iím fairly certain Iíll be in your same position in 2020 at some point.

  24. #8774
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Maine Coast
    Posts
    2,913
    Yeah echo what wooly and bennymac, words are hard to convey sincerity-thinking of you and your mom. Ventilator is pretty invasive and not easy visiting with what is done to make it happen.

  25. #8775
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Tahoe
    Posts
    12,914
    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post
    Again not saying I’m agreeing or disagreeing with the hospitals approach - just that you seemed unsure of what they did and I wanted to say that actually matches up with the thinking in a lot of places right now.
    Again vibes to you and your family. It’s likely no solace to you but I’m fairly certain I’ll be in your same position in 2020 at some point.
    I am a bit unsure of what they did but the more unsettling thing was that they seemed unsure of what they did. Or the intensivist was more like, "It's kind of fucked up that we had to do it this way, but the fact that our threshholds for intubating are less that means the chance for extubating each day are greater." Or something to that effect.
    Also, thanks.
    powdork.com - new and improved, with 20% more dork.

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