Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[MultiVerse]

Why does anyone continue to believe it might be seasonal?

Countries close to the equator continue to be ravaged. Perhaps at a slightly slower pace or perhaps because they started later on the curve.

Wait, have you moved on from your "no worse than the flu" talking point?

Anyway, you answered your own question as in a "slower pace" vs a later start so it's not a so called "belief" as it is a question of whether the coronavirus will assume a seasonal nature:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3550308


And, FWIW, the original point was simply the observation that flu cases fell dramatically in recent weeks compared with last year due to social distancing and lockdown measures. Something the "no worse than the flu" crowd should keep in mind when making comparisons in the future.

[Mr. Mike]

Hudge change in the IHME numbers for Alabama is a driver for a large percentage of the statistical differences in the projected national totals, yet nothing drastic has changed there (to my knowledge) except that they instituted a stay-at-home order the day before yesterday. However the previous totals claimed that they were based on stay-at-home orders being issued by now iirc. I'd like to see the previous iteration of their projections to compare AL and other states, does anyone know where I might find those?

I don't have 50 states, but I have it written down old school for my state (TN) and US. There has been a huge decrease in the projection here (as well as in Alabama), but only a modest decrease nationwide since the last projections, so one can only surmise they are projecting much less carnage in some of the less densely populated states, but much more in the rest. Here's the numbers I wrote down.

April 1:

TN 3,259 deaths
US 93,765 deaths

April 5:

TN 587 deaths
US 81,766 deaths

[Ottime]

In fairness, there's a lot of speculation and bullshit wrapped in an intelligent sounding package floating around. Look at BG's last post - a world renowned epidemiologist saying everyone should go about their business. There's so much directly conflicting information from seemingly reputable sources that I can see how the average idiot is just going to latch on to whatever fits their world view.

Yeah, I was buying in to it, and then realized in the entire interview he never once mentioned the black magic that the deep state used to create this faux virus. So I figure he is just full of shit.

[Ottime]

Feel better. What was that, two weeks so far?

7 days to a week. So 22 days, is 3 weeks. Glad I could help. Anytime bro.

[Ottime]

As any good contractor will tell you, it's always better to over estimate and then come in under budget. Fingers crossed, too...

Can you direct me to a contractor that does that? Never met one.

Honestly I have a few friends who are builders around here, and asked them why it was the case that contractors seemed to always underestimate time and cost instead of putting out an honest estimate. He said no one would ever get work. He is pretty spot on with his estimates and has clients waiting for him to finish his current jobs, so he can offer an accurate estimate. But most customers just choose the lowest bid and go with that. So if you want the work, under bid and then make excuses along the way why you did not realized the foundation was a slab and not a perimeter and go from there.

[The AD]

Has anyone heard a single person who called this all a hoax a month ago actually fess up that they were wrong? I haven't. OK, maybe Dr. Drew Pinsky, but he's still an ass.

[Dantheman]

Can you direct me to a contractor that does that? Never met one.

Honestly I have a few friends who are builders around here, and asked them why it was the case that contractors seemed to always underestimate time and cost instead of putting out an honest estimate. He said no one would ever get work. He is pretty spot on with his estimates and has clients waiting for him to finish his current jobs, so he can offer an accurate estimate. But most customers just choose the lowest bid and go with that. So if you want the work, under bid and then make excuses along the way why you did not realized the foundation was a slab and not a perimeter and go from there.

[glademaster]

That's fantastic.

[XXX-er]

Context is important, Computers were the size of a mini van, end loser would buy a big "cream colored box'" and a bunch of cream colored screens with no brains, the price was the price ... no discounts.

Other companies weren't really able to compete with big blue so divisions of IBM would compete against other divisions of IBM but the large systems part of the house made the $$$$$ and called the shots

At the time there were half a dozen operating systems to pick from, somee IBM managers probably used a Ouji board and picked the Basic program, lots has been said about microsoft but in my rather simplistic POV the really big thing from where i seen it is that IBM really didnt give even half a fuck about the PC and/or microsoft so they left the architecture open

[Mr. Mike]

I don't have 50 states, but I have it written down old school for my state (TN) and US. There has been a huge decrease in the projection here (as well as in Alabama), but only a modest decrease nationwide since the last projections, so one can only surmise they are projecting much less carnage in some of the less densely populated states, but much more in the rest. Here's the numbers I wrote down.

April 1:

TN 3,259 deaths
US 93,765 deaths

April 5:

TN 587 deaths
US 81,766 deaths

State by state breakdown comparing April 1 vs. April 6 projections here: https://www.leafly.com/news/health/i...he-latest-data

[Ottime]

Best post of the thread award.

[Benny Profane]

7 days to a week. So 22 days, is 3 weeks. Glad I could help. Anytime bro.

Don't be an asshole. Nobody likes assholes.

[Kinnikinnick]

I don't have 50 states, but I have it written down old school for my state (TN) and US. There has been a huge decrease in the projection here (as well as in Alabama), but only a modest decrease nationwide since the last projections, so one can only surmise they are projecting much less carnage in some of the less densely populated states, but much more in the rest. Here's the numbers I wrote down.

April 1:

TN 3,259 deaths
US 93,765 deaths

April 5:

TN 587 deaths
US 81,766 deaths

Hah, hah

Yeah right. So TN in its unsurpassed leadership on medicine and smart people is going to drive the fatality rate to less than 1% when no other place in the world has been able to do so.

Red state dolts


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[Benny Profane]

Campaign materials just arrived in my mailbox.

[rideit]

Just wait until you get a campaign check!

[riser4]

Campaign materials just arrived in my mailbox.

Hope you sanitized that.

[Rideski]

Japan declares state of emergency, Singapore rates balloon.
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-...er-coronavirus

[Benny Profane]

I see that some assholes have figured out that the cops aren't stopping people for speeding or other traffic infractions, and are driving accordingly. Civil order slowly breaks down.

[TBS]

Hah, hah

Yeah right. So TN in its unsurpassed leadership on medicine and smart people is going to drive the fatality rate to less than 1% when no other place in the world has been able to do so.

Red state dolts


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

You realize these projections are done by the University of Washington, not by each state's officials?

AL, LA and TN seem to have dodged a bullet

[Ted Striker]

Campaign materials just arrived in my mailbox.

That explains why I saw so many letters for the mailman on my neighbors' mail boxes while walking the dogs: Return to sender.

[iceman]

Hah, hah

Yeah right. So TN in its unsurpassed leadership on medicine and smart people is going to drive the fatality rate to less than 1% when no other place in the world has been able to do so.

Red state dolts

Well the projections aren't by or from TN, they're by IHME in Washington state. But IHME projections are based on the data they receive, and it's pretty possible that data's getting cooked pretty hard in some states, perhaps including TN, which would lead to better projected outcomes obviously.

Underreporting is how you would cook those books, and it's definitely going on all over the place, and no doubt more some places than others: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/u...&region=Footer

[glademaster]

I was watching some old Top Gear episodes last night, and one of them featured Boris Johnson as the "Star in a Reasonably Priced Car" when he was mayor of London. Jeremy Clarkson was extremely sick during the recording of that episode, but was there to host it anyway. I couldn't help but notice that he coughed directly into his hand shortly before shaking hands with BoJo. He's always been a fearless hand-shaker, it appears.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

In other news, I'm 99% sure one of my next door neighbors has COVID-19 and is self-isolating from his family in a travel trailer he's parked on the street and hooked up to power and water. Either that or someone in the house has it, because he puts gloves and an N-95 mask on on the rare occasions when he does go inside.

[Rideski]

Yeah I’m not enthused by the prospects of opening up the windows and blasting the cross draft fan as per normal summers. Might be a whole lot more ac this year. Maybe I’ll buy a swamp cooler.

[bobz]

I see that some assholes have figured out that the cops aren't stopping people for speeding or other traffic infractions, and are driving accordingly. Civil order slowly breaks down.

I've seen a few news reports (Bay Area) about how CHP is writing more tickets than usual for 100+ mph speeds.

[mcski]

Peter Navarro has a long history of always being wrong about everything, but he’s making a strong push for lifetime achievement for the Dunning Kruger award