Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[old goat]

Um...

That's disconcerting.

reminds me of a GF I had--told her she should watch Dr. Strangelove. She didn't realize it was a satire. We didn't last long.
OTOH, my dad, who served in the Pacific in WWII, read Catch 22 and said it wasn't a satire, it was exactly like the book over there

[Mofro261]

not saying covid 19 will not pass everyone probably by next Monday but its not its not at 1970 fatalities yet.

will be interesting to see where it finishes the year at, but if it's responsible for 80,000 deaths; it will have been less deadly than diabetes at 220 per day.

Yeah, but it was 1,970 deaths yesterday, 4/7/20.

[Mofro261]

Ooh I'd hate to catch something as contagious as diabetes.

[Toadman]

Received a text last night from a former co-worker back in NJ, who let me know that her boss just passed away from COVID-19. Fever and Friday, dead on Monday. Apparently he had some underlying health issues. Previous cancer survivor in his early 60's.

[BigDaddy]

^Ouch, that's fast. And my age.

And we're talking about people who have a huge sphere of influence over other people - including poor and disadvantaged people. It's almost like their anti-science approach to life is not consistent with reality - it would be sad if that only came back to bite themselves in the ass - but when we can't criticize them because they're dead then we're doomed to keep repeating their mistakes (as a society)

Well said... but that's what happens when the inmates are in charge of the asylum.

[bennymac]

not saying covid 19 will not pass everyone probably by next Monday but its not its not at 1970 fatalities yet.

will be interesting to see where it finishes the year at, but if it's responsible for 80,000 deaths; it will have been less deadly than diabetes at 220 per day.

YES ! kill all muslims, black, brown, white, irish; color does not matter to me when it's making a dead muslim.

yeah but sick fucks like you will be happy that some of those killed by this pandemic practice Islam - are you factoring that craziness into your projections?

[old goat]

not saying covid 19 will not pass everyone probably by next Monday but its not its not at 1970 fatalities yet.

will be interesting to see where it finishes the year at, but if it's responsible for 80,000 deaths; it will have been less deadly than diabetes at 220 per day.

1850 deaths yesterday. Still number one COD.

[Toadman]

COVID-19 is only serious if you catch it or have lost your job because of it.

You know the old saying, "if someone else loses their job, it's a recession, but if you lose your job, it's a depression."

Same thing goes for COVID-19.

Be Best!

[huckbucket]

not saying covid 19 will not pass everyone probably by next Monday but its not its not at 1970 fatalities yet.

will be interesting to see where it finishes the year at, but if it's responsible for 80,000 deaths; it will have been less deadly than diabetes at 220 per day.

What's your point by comparing it to diabetes?

[toast2266]

Ooh I'd hate to catch something as contagious as diabetes.

Stay outta the south. It spreads like wildfire down there.

[iceman]

As far as I know, it's said that at the top of the page for a while. The point is, that this seems to be trending better?

The Alabama numbers are puzzling. All I can think is there was some error, either the last time they ran them or this time, but more likely last time. Last time they were pretty apocalyptic but surrounding states weren't nearly as bad as AL. This time AL is more in line with them. I don't think it's just an improved trend because it's basically night-and-day from before. But what do I know.

[Casey E]

For perspective, the Hocus Potus has a 49% approval rating, and the Chilean president has only 18% (up from 10%). But there is no exponential Covid-19 growth in Chile (with the highest rate of testing in LA).

https://cdn.digital.gob.cl/public_fi...te_Covid19.pdf

Percentage daily increase in detected cases has declined to below 10%, 33 days after the first case.



Deaths are at 48, going up about 10% per day. 60,000 tests have been made, with about 10% testing positive. This is looking like a "success story", but the fat lady ain't sung yet....

[Mr. Mike]

The Alabama numbers are puzzling. All I can think is there was some error, either the last time they ran them or this time, but more likely last time. Last time they were pretty apocalyptic but surrounding states weren't nearly as bad as AL. This time AL is more in line with them. I don't think it's just an improved trend because it's basically night-and-day from before. But what do I know.

Many of the surrounding states have also changed dramatically over the last two models, however. I think a big part of that is that at the time of the early models there was very little to no distancing mandates in those states. As those went into place, the model accounted for it. I don't think that explains all of the change, but I think it is significant.

[LeeLau]

bump for relevence.

Recommend the talks by Susan Weiss and Paul Bates.

Thanks to huckbucket and Mofro for these. Science is wonderful. For anyone else - even for laypeople the discussion can be followed

[MultiVerse]

The Alabama numbers are puzzling. All I can think is there was some error, either the last time they ran them or this time, but more likely last time. Last time they were pretty apocalyptic but surrounding states weren't nearly as bad as AL. This time AL is more in line with them. I don't think it's just an improved trend because it's basically night-and-day from before. But what do I know.

Re Alabama they offer this explanation: 1) they now use a running average of case counts and deaths rather than relying on massive fluctuations due to the way some states report info in batches 2) Non-essential business closures went into effect for Alabama 3) the model makes use of better data for the time from implementation of social distancing to the peak of the epidemic.



What’s New for April 5, 2020: "Even though at the national level the total number of deaths remains fairly unchanged, today’s release introduces substantial changes for several states."

[bennymac]

Some models of potential ICU bed demand coming out of Canada

Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada
https://www.cmaj.ca/content/cmaj/ear...00457.full.pdf

INTERPRETATION: At the peak of COVID19 outbreaks, the need for ICU beds will exceed the total number of ICU beds even with the level of self-isolation at home of mildly symptomatic cases at 40%.



Figure 3 shows that if 40% of mildly symptomatic people self isolate properly (and 80% of more symptomatic are isolated by being in hospital) the peak demand for ICU beds in Canada will be in July. With no proper self isolation of symptomatic people the peak demand will be in late May.

In their interpretation they say:
" A conservative hospital-bed occupancy rate of 80% suggests that the need for critical care may be as much as 13 times higher than the available (unoccupied) ICU beds at the peak of outbreak even with 40% self-isolation."

There are a number of limitations to this paper (some of which you can read about in the link). It also assumes (I think) that ICU bed volumes are staying static (which I doubt they are anywhere in the developed world) and that ICU bed demand continues at historical levels - I would expect there will be less trauma patients (car accidents/work accidents/sports accidents) than normal if a significant portion of the population is staying at home etc.

Smarter people then me can make more use of this. What I took away from this is that the peak demand for the highest levels of medical care may not be coming until the end of May or even into July.

[AK47bp]

Anyone else lie awake last night thinking about how much more accomplished Hitler was in his life compared to yours? He wrote a very popular book, was a great speaker, a vegetarian who didn't drink or smoke, dabbled in art, won the rare Iron Cross medal for service in World War 1, VERY charismatic, and loved dogs.

Gretchen? You too?

Agreed, he took a couple ideas a little too far but otherwise a pretty good dude.


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[highangle]

Hey Covid-19.

[east or bust]

Damn.... Plan B is no longer viable: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/u...drops-out.html

Dang, just won 100 bucks

Saddest 100 I've ever made

[old goat]

Agreed, he took a couple ideas a little too far but otherwise a pretty good dude.


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The Hitler got his ideas on eugenics from the American eugenicists. How come we don't get the credit?

[seano732]

I posted this in the complaint/commiseration thread......Much needed laugh.

https://hes32-ctp.trendmicro.com/wis...b61f523a2b9f96

[muted]

reminds me of a GF I had--told her she should watch Dr. Strangelove. She didn't realize it was a satire. We didn't last long.
OTOH, my dad, who served in the Pacific in WWII, read Catch 22 and said it wasn't a satire, it was exactly like the book over there

I was at a party a long time ago and we were talking about Blair Witch project. A girl at the party thought it was a documentary, it blew my mind.

[MontuckyFried]

The Hitler got his ideas on eugenics from the American eugenicists. How come we don't get the credit?

Like Margaret Sanger? You're right!

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[huckbucket]

The Hitler got his ideas on eugenics from the American eugenicists. How come we don't get the credit?

OG watched PBS last night.

[Ottime]

I’ve got the same thing, it dies down during the day for me. I usually never have headaches.

Me too. Sore throat right now since yesterday evening. I’ve had it off/on for three weeks. Had a headache last night. Not as often as the sore throat, but that has been around for three weeks as well.