Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[fastfred]

Masks are gone at home depot in SLC. My trip to look for a mask was twofold, wife wants masks for wuflu, I want masks for sanding the walls in the kitchen after I patch holes, and before priming for paint.

you should have dibs on masks sanding lead paint and asbestos filled drywall from china is a bigger safety hazzard bummer I better make sure my guys haven't been selling my masks on the side we should have three or four boxes in stock

Jeezus Freddie, was it Asian porn?

\

no I like chubby american girls

[huckbucket]

So the epicenter of this shit is Hubei, where Wuhan is located. It spread unchecked at first because nobody even knew it existed. It's been over 2 months since it was identified. There are approximately 65,000 confirmed cases in Hubei. Let's say that's low by a factor of 10. So ~650,000 cases. There are almost 60 million people in Hubei. So that's somewhere around 1% of the population that possibly has or has had it. There are less than 3,000 deaths from it in Hubei, or ~.0005% of the Hubei population if my math is anywhere close. Doesn't seem that scary somehow.

Cynically, China's best move now is export this shit globally, shrug, and get back to work.

If the infected rate is underreported, then what makes you think the death rate isn't also underreported? In general the data from China is unreliable which makes a lot of this unknown. Particularly, the rate of infection relative to the lethality. Looking at the graphic below, I suspect this virus will land somewhere near cholera. 2% death rate may sounds low, but it's not in reality.

[bennymac]

"We all breathe liquid for nine months Bud, your body will remember."

At this point living in an underwater base might make the most sense.

[riser4]

Oh fuck.

[iceman]

@huck: I think the infection rate is underreported in large part because people haven't gone to the hospital because they won't get seen. I suspect the death number is much closer to accurate than the infection numbers. People aren't dying in the streets, although I'm sure some are dying without being counted. I could believe the death totals are perhaps double the reported number, but not much more than that.

I highly doubt that a 2% death rate is realistic and would suspect it's a fraction of that because of the certain large underreporting of infection. Time will tell, this is just supposition on my part.

[huckbucket]

@huck: I think the infection rate is underreported in large part because people haven't gone to the hospital because they won't get seen. I suspect the death rate is much closer to accurate than the infection rate. People aren't dying in the streets, although I'm sure some are dying without being counted. I could believe the death totals are perhaps double the reported number, but not much more than that.

I highly doubt that a 2% death rate is realistic and would suspect it's a fraction of that because of the certain large underreporting of infection. Time will tell, this is just supposition on my part.

Yeah, I saw an early report that 2% was among elderly males and that the number decreased in a linear fashion with decreasing age. So average that out to 1%. I really hope you're right and that we are overreacting slightly. That wouldn't be the worst thing for future preparedness. The question is whether what we learn will stick.

[Toadman]

I for sure don't want to get the rabies. That's some gnarly stuff.

[The AD]

@huck: I think the infection rate is underreported in large part because people haven't gone to the hospital because they won't get seen.

Or they just don't even suspect they're infected because they are asymptomatic. If that's the case the death rate is probably significantly lower than 2%.

[iceman]

I for sure don't want to get the rabies. That's some gnarly stuff.

Don't get teh rabiez.

[SKIP IN7RO]

Odds on favorite for first ski town infected has to be Keystone.

[Timberridge]

I was going with Whistler.

[nickwm21]

Informative NYT Daily this morning.

From the Chinese survey (take that with a grain of salt)
- 80% of the cases are minor-flu-like
- 2% are deadly
- deaths are from pneumonia
- Deaths are manly older men
- major majority of older men in China smoke, most women don’t...
- death rate for under 30yo is super low due to perceived immunity from exposure to other similar viruses at school/playgrounds/social life/etc..


Add me to the list of people shaking their heads at those hoarding/wearing masks. You are much more likely to get this by not washing your hands before you eat a sandwich. N95s are great for a lot of reasons, this is not one. However, those with any sort of cold/flu could help us all by wearing a simple dust/surgical mask.

Purell and Lysol whipes is what you should stock up on....


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[S_jenks]

Odds on favorite for first ski town infected has to be Keystone.

I'll put down $5 for Mt Hood.

[Timberridge]

In on Mt. Hood for a genital herpes/COVID 19 exacta for the summer race camp season.

[old goat]

This scares the piss out of me. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/u...gtype=Homepage
Pence Will Control All Coronavirus Messaging From Health Officials

Dear leader likes declaring emergencies so much--here's one I wouldn't mind seeing him declare: hoarding masks and other protective gear a crime, all stocks of protective gear confiscated by the guvment with fair compensation to legitimate manufacturers, retailers, and distributors and provided to hospitals, clinics and providers as well as to coronavirus patients--symptomatic or not--and their housemates. Given limited supplies the key is to a) keep health care personnel and household contacts healthy and willing and able to care for patients, and b) prevent transmission FROM infected people.

[splat]

The decision to put Mr. Pence in charge was made on Wednesday after the president told some people that the vice president didn’t “have anything else to do,” according to people familiar with the president’s comments.

[plugboots]

So the WH actually appointed a qualified person as the CV response coordinator, Debbie Birx. Will Pence go into a meeting with her alone?

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Odds on favorite for first ski town infected has to be Keystone.

I dunno about ski towns, but this summer Yellowstone NP will have a new way to kill you.

[Benny Profane]

Keystone is not a ski town.

[highangle]

Odds on favorite for first ski town infected has to be Keystone.

"Haha! You poseurs only ski twice a week!!" - 15yo Vailrat [online]

[fastfred]

Odds on favorite for first ski town infected has to be Keystone.

100 to 1 keystone
mumps has already gotten close to 50 people this year
they were pretty hard up for housing so they got the county to allow a run down nasty room that had 2 beds in it to have 4 beds perfect breeding grounds

[powdork]

Or they just don't even suspect they're infected because they are asymptomatic. If that's the case the death rate is probably significantly lower than 2%.

The diamond princess will give us the best look, since virtually everyone has been tested and asymptomatic cases are also caught. So far 4 deaths out of 705 cases, .5%. However there are still 36 cases in serious/critical condition so there are probably going to be quite a few more deaths with very few new cases, if any.

[KQ]

Home Depot shelves W2 - cleared out.

[splat]

So the WH actually appointed a qualified person as the CV response coordinator, Debbie Birx. Will Pence go into a meeting with her alone?

As long as she wears the appropriate attire...

[glademaster]

Home Depot shelves W2 - cleared out.

How many people who stockpiled masks do you think are smokers who will remove their masks multiple times a day to rip a dart?

Most preppers seem to be white trash, tobacco sucking wastes of oxygen, so I'm going with a pretty high percentage.