Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[Evil E]

This is not a fun read but at this point required. The pandemic is so bad in Italy that they cant process the dead fast enough and funerals cant be attended due to everyone either being sick or quarantined. Stay healthy everyone.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/w...gtype=Homepage

[rideit]

“Death don’t...have no mercy...in this land”

[splat]

Living in SF? Hunker down.

Attachment 320614

Been trying to warn friends with houses in Tahoe to get the fuck out before they close the bridges and the few roads south off the peninsula.

[Spats]

I'm going to keep posting facts and figures from official sources and scientists.

(Go believe Snopes if you want. A random schoolteacher who embezzled company money to spend on prostitutes, dumped his wife for a fetish escort, and whose lead "fact checkers" have zero qualifications and boast openly about smoking dope before posting, is a totally trustworthy arbiter of truth. But you don't get to sit at the adult's table.)

Meanwhile, some more facts for the adults in the room.

Number of specimens tested, by date: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ing-in-us.html

Cases: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html


If this trend holds up, the curve is already starting to flatten out - which would be great news for everyone!

What if this were true?

**** SPECULATION FOLLOWS ****

(As I've posted before: )
Over half the deaths in the entire USA are in King County (37).
Of those, 78% (29) are associated with Life Care Center of Kirkland.
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/hea.../15-covid.aspx
From my reading of their website, LCC Kirkland is a nursing home that specializes in elderly patients fresh out of the hospital from major operations.
I can't find statistics from today,

Also recall that the viral rumor about Seattle (King County) ERs being overwhelmed is also bullshit:
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/sta...48331186249728

It could be that Covid-19 has been spreading in America, and in King County in particular, for much longer than we think it has - and that a lot of people have already had it, figured they just had the flu or not noticed anything at all, and recovered just fine.
It could also be that many of the cases of "seasonal flu" this year have actually been from Covid-19.
Either way, this would mean we're a lot farther along the infection curve than we thought, and that Covid-19 is less deadly here in the US than in China or Italy.

Why might this be? Covid-19 preferentially attaches to what are called ACE-2 receptors. Skipping a lot of complicated biochemistry, East Asians have a lot more ACE2 receptors, smokers have a lot more ACE2 receptors, and heavy air pollution has a similar effect to smoking. The majority of Chinese people smoke, something like 3/4 of Asian men smoke, and pollution in Chinese cities is some of the worst in the world.

As we test more for Covid-19, we'll find more cases...but we'll also find that the death rate has plummeted. Even in China, the death rate outside Wuhan looks much more like the seasonal flu:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...nging-in-china
"Outside of Wuhan — the city at the epicenter of the outbreak — the death rate in China has been much lower: about 0.7%. That's fewer than 1 fatality per 100 cases.
Similarly, a study released by China's Center for Disease Control last month found that if you factor out all the data from Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, the fatality rate in the rest of China drops to 0.4%."

Once again, this is speculation...but if it's true, it means we've all been whipped into a panicked frenzy over something no worse than the seasonal flu, from which 15,000 to 60,000 people die every year. (Average, over 30,000.)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/past-flu-seasons.htm

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Jesus Fucking Christ.....

That was too much for even faux news. She's on hiatus. Hopefully she'll get cast on a telenovela which is where she belongs with that makeup and overcooked acting.

[Benny Profane]

I'm going to keep posting facts and figures from official sources and scientists.

(Go believe Snopes if you want. A random schoolteacher who embezzled company money to spend on prostitutes, dumped his wife for a fetish escort, and whose lead "fact checkers" have zero qualifications and boast openly about smoking dope before posting, is a totally trustworthy arbiter of truth. But you don't get to sit at the adult's table.)

Meanwhile, some more facts for the adults in the room.

Number of specimens tested, by date: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ing-in-us.html

Cases: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html


If this trend holds up, the curve is already starting to flatten out - which would be great news for everyone!

What if this were true?

**** SPECULATION FOLLOWS ****

(As I've posted before: )
Over half the deaths in the entire USA are in King County (37).
Of those, 78% (29) are associated with Life Care Center of Kirkland.
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/hea.../15-covid.aspx
From my reading of their website, LCC Kirkland is a nursing home that specializes in elderly patients fresh out of the hospital from major operations.
I can't find statistics from today,

Also recall that the viral rumor about Seattle (King County) ERs being overwhelmed is also bullshit:
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/sta...48331186249728

It could be that Covid-19 has been spreading in America, and in King County in particular, for much longer than we think it has - and that a lot of people have already had it, figured they just had the flu or not noticed anything at all, and recovered just fine.
It could also be that many of the cases of "seasonal flu" this year have actually been from Covid-19.
Either way, this would mean we're a lot farther along the infection curve than we thought, and that Covid-19 is less deadly here in the US than in China or Italy.

Why might this be? Covid-19 preferentially attaches to what are called ACE-2 receptors. Skipping a lot of complicated biochemistry, East Asians have a lot more ACE2 receptors, smokers have a lot more ACE2 receptors, and heavy air pollution has a similar effect to smoking. The majority of Chinese people smoke, something like 3/4 of Asian men smoke, and pollution in Chinese cities is some of the worst in the world.

As we test more for Covid-19, we'll find more cases...but we'll also find that the death rate has plummeted. Even in China, the death rate outside Wuhan looks much more like the seasonal flu:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...nging-in-china
"Outside of Wuhan — the city at the epicenter of the outbreak — the death rate in China has been much lower: about 0.7%. That's fewer than 1 fatality per 100 cases.
Similarly, a study released by China's Center for Disease Control last month found that if you factor out all the data from Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, the fatality rate in the rest of China drops to 0.4%."

Once again, this is speculation...but if it's true, it means we've all been whipped into a panicked frenzy over something no worse than the seasonal flu, from which 15,000 to 60,000 people die every year. (Average, over 30,000.)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/past-flu-seasons.htm

Take a trip to Italy. Sneak in from the Alps, because that looks like the only entry, besides clandestine boat landing. Then get back to us.

Do you think they're lying to us? Why?

[skiballs]

But....everyone needs to be saved, don't resist being saved.

I'm going to keep posting facts and figures from official sources and scientists.

(Go believe Snopes if you want. A random schoolteacher who embezzled company money to spend on prostitutes, dumped his wife for a fetish escort, and whose lead "fact checkers" have zero qualifications and boast openly about smoking dope before posting, is a totally trustworthy arbiter of truth. But you don't get to sit at the adult's table.)

Meanwhile, some more facts for the adults in the room.

Number of specimens tested, by date: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ing-in-us.html

Cases: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html


If this trend holds up, the curve is already starting to flatten out - which would be great news for everyone!

What if this were true?

**** SPECULATION FOLLOWS ****

(As I've posted before: )
Over half the deaths in the entire USA are in King County (37).
Of those, 78% (29) are associated with Life Care Center of Kirkland.
https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/hea.../15-covid.aspx
From my reading of their website, LCC Kirkland is a nursing home that specializes in elderly patients fresh out of the hospital from major operations.
I can't find statistics from today,

Also recall that the viral rumor about Seattle (King County) ERs being overwhelmed is also bullshit:
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/sta...48331186249728

It could be that Covid-19 has been spreading in America, and in King County in particular, for much longer than we think it has - and that a lot of people have already had it, figured they just had the flu or not noticed anything at all, and recovered just fine.
It could also be that many of the cases of "seasonal flu" this year have actually been from Covid-19.
Either way, this would mean we're a lot farther along the infection curve than we thought, and that Covid-19 is less deadly here in the US than in China or Italy.

Why might this be? Covid-19 preferentially attaches to what are called ACE-2 receptors. Skipping a lot of complicated biochemistry, East Asians have a lot more ACE2 receptors, smokers have a lot more ACE2 receptors, and heavy air pollution has a similar effect to smoking. The majority of Chinese people smoke, something like 3/4 of Asian men smoke, and pollution in Chinese cities is some of the worst in the world.

As we test more for Covid-19, we'll find more cases...but we'll also find that the death rate has plummeted. Even in China, the death rate outside Wuhan looks much more like the seasonal flu:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...nging-in-china
"Outside of Wuhan — the city at the epicenter of the outbreak — the death rate in China has been much lower: about 0.7%. That's fewer than 1 fatality per 100 cases.
Similarly, a study released by China's Center for Disease Control last month found that if you factor out all the data from Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, the fatality rate in the rest of China drops to 0.4%."

Once again, this is speculation...but if it's true, it means we've all been whipped into a panicked frenzy over something no worse than the seasonal flu, from which 15,000 to 60,000 people die every year. (Average, over 30,000.)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/past-flu-seasons.htm

[::: :::]

I'm going to keep posting facts and figures from official sources and scientists.

**** SPECULATION FOLLOWS ****

cmon man, have a little self awareness

[PNWbrit]

Take a trip to Italy. Sneak in from the Alps, because that looks like the only entry, besides clandestine boat landing. Then get back to us.

Do you think they're lying to us? Why?

Like they were about Ron Paul, Austrian economics or Paleo.

He cant resist a good conspiracy.

[skaredshtles]

They realized they needed at least part of their wits to remain intact so they can be somewhat functional to deal with the situation so they're drinking a lot less.

Man... end days shit right there. Frenchman drinking LESS... the world is doomed.

[Spats]

It's easy to believe that tests are magic and 100% accurate. That's not true.

https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03...-19-tests.html
"The accuracy of the current COVID-19 tests is not precisely known. Reasonable estimates, based on test performance in China and the performance of the influenza tests, are that the tests will correctly identify around 60 percent of the patients with the disease and correctly identify 90 percent of the patients that are disease-free.

Assume that the physician thinks there is a 50 percent of the patient having COVID-19. Given the above numbers, if the patient has the disease, the test will be positive 85 percent of the time. Fifteen percent of the infected patients will incorrectly be diagnosed as not having the disease. If the patient does not have the disease, only 70 percent of the patients will have a negative test. It would take four consecutive negative tests to conclusively prove the patient did not have the disease."

(Yes, in order to know the exact percentage, you need to know how many have it...but how do you know without the test? Welcome to Bayes' Law.)

This means that: at least 10% of our "Covid-19 cases" will be false positives. How much more depends on how many we test who are actually negative. Yes, the more people we test, the more likely a "Covid-19 case" is to be a false positive, not someone who actually has the virus!

This also means that someone who has Covid-19 is 40% likely to test negative, be released, and keep infecting other people.

One of the reasons the CDC didn't simply let everyone do their own tests right away is because early tests were even less accurate than influenza tests...under 50%, by some reports. (Think about it: we test for flu every year, but we can still only make the test 60% accurate? How well can we do with a new virus?)

Consider this before screaming for "MOAR TESTING!11!!" The more testing we do, the more false positives we'll get, and the more people will be running around with their hair on fire screaming about a pandemic that is mostly a testing artifact. Sound familiar?

THIS, friends, is why we don't "just test everyone."

[Boissal]

Man... end days shit right there. Frenchman drinking LESS... the world is doomed.

Truth.

To continue with the wildly speculative bullshit, I just dispatched 3 new compounds to be tested in an in-vitro antiviral assay for COVID-19. Clearly we'll soon have a cure. But we won't give it to any of you fuckers cause we're part of the deep state big pharma big government conglomerate. We'll store it in a vault along with our cure for cancer (cough.... quit being a fucking idiot Spats... cough)
BSL-3 facility, they're not fucking around.

[rideit]

So, maybe Trump IS sick.
You heard it here first.

[The AD]

Consider this before screaming for "MOAR TESTING!11!!" The more testing we do, the more false positives we'll get, and the more people will be running around with their hair on fire screaming about a pandemic that is mostly a testing artifact. Sound familiar?

THIS, friends, is why we don't "just test everyone."

This is one of the stupidest things I've ever read.

[bobz]

Bay Area suddenly got pretty hardcore. Mandatory "shelter in place", though with a raft of exceptions, for things like grocery shopping, restaurant takeout, travel to care for others, etc etc.

Supposedly, it's okay to get out and exercise if we keep our distance from others. Ugh, I hope they don't flag off the town's open space trails, like they just flagged off the playground on our block. Oh, and my wife just got kicked off the nearby college campus that pretty much everyone here routinely uses as a local walking route. Glad I was able to get a good gym workout the evening before last, when the place was almost empty. Sorry I'm grumpy; I'd been planning to hit the road tonight for a couple of, rare this season, powder days. Oh well, doing my part etc.

[rideit]

Actually, I agree with him. There should be no tests at all.
MURICA, FUCK YEA

[Danno]

Spats is like a one man disinformation campaign. Kind of sad.

[evdog]

I'm really curious what the fine print is here. Still allowed to go grocery stores and pharmacies like Italy? Allowed to walk your dog around the block?

I read in an article that people will be allowed to go outside to exercise. I will be taking my MTB with me, naturally. Not hard to get away from people on a bike.

I’m a commercial loan officer for a local financial institution in Utah and shit is now fully hitting the fan. I’ve already requested payment deferments for over $20 million in loans just today. Now I’m on a conference call with local sba lenders and the regional office about sba disaster funds. It sounds like I’m not alone. Banks are about to get crushed.

I think everyone is about to get crushed. With closure of bars/restaurants and likely layoffs at many businesses where people can't do their jobs remotely, there are going to be a lot of people having trouble paying rent.

[bennymac]

Spats you are a simpleton.

Only a fucking idiot would look at this pandemic and only look at mortality.

You are clearly way out of your league here and just grasping at whatever tidbits of information your brain pretends to understand.

Don't worry - the adults will get you through this. And at the end you get to tell the experts "See! I told you it wasn't that bad! I am so smrt!"

[Benny Profane]

I read in an article that people will be allowed to go outside to exercise. I will be taking my MTB with me, naturally. Not hard to get away from people on a bike.


I think everyone is about to get crushed. With closure of bars/restaurants and likely layoffs at many businesses where people can't do their jobs remotely, there are going to be a lot of people having trouble paying rent.

But the vital cruise industry will be bailed out.

[El Chupacabra]

This is one of the stupidest things I've ever read.

Have you read any of BG night's posts?

[BmillsSkier]

But the vital cruise industry will be bailed out.

If you want those people to start going to where you vacation, you just keep on wishing that.

[The AD]

Have you read any of BG night's posts?

I said stupidest, not bat-shit craziest.

[El Chupacabra]

I said stupidest, not bat-shit craziest.

It's a fine distinction...

[Spats]

Like they were about Ron Paul, Austrian economics or Paleo.

He cant resist a good conspiracy.

The last time I posted about Ron Paul was 2009. You're like my obsessed stalker-y ex-girlfriend, except not nearly as good looking...especially ELEVEN YEARS LATER. Stop texting me, I'm not going to go out with you again!



Meanwhile, it's hilarious watching the usual suspects call me "disinformation" and "conspiracy" when I'm literally posting links to the CDC, the DHS, and the NSC.