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  1. #8026
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    Quote Originally Posted by evdog View Post
    Moving back into the dorm because Falwell says that doing so actually protects students since "99% of them are not at the age to be at risk and they don't have conditions that put them at risk"
    He'd have a point if no student ever left campus and the university had no staff.

  2. #8027
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    Quote Originally Posted by powdork View Post
    it seems like it but i think we are seeing the results of early testing, which should significantly flatten the curve. However, I think another part of the early testing is they found cases before they are at the bad point. in other words, the deaths are just lagging timewise further behind the case numbers than most countries.
    I hope (and data suggests it too) that Italy has just about 5 to 10X times more cases than reported. Because Germany is closer to the Korean rate. It will probably go up somewhat to the +/- 1,x percent most countries are seeing, but hopefully not much further. And our outbreak started in a different age group (young and mobile and Ski tourism, actually) and hasn't spread as far into the old age group as in Italy.
    It's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.

  3. #8028
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    Hind sight is 20/20, but if you have time, go read this thread from the beginning.

    With Summit nailing it from day one, you have to question why everyone from his supervisor, to the President, dropped the ball.

    Just inexcusable for NYC to be so fucked.

    Even wooley, reporting that high end supplies were disappearing in January. Wooley, the canary.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  4. #8029
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    Quote Originally Posted by wkd-rdr View Post
    Germany's death rate is very small in comparison. Something different is happening there.
    My theory is that Germany, like Finland, operate on the premise of very generous personal space. (There is nothing so cold as German love?)
    That’s my completely bullshit, uninformed idea.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  5. #8030
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    Hey look, another cruise ship with sick people... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...flu-like-cases

  6. #8031
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    Quote Originally Posted by KenJongIll View Post
    Hey look, another cruise ship with sick people... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...flu-like-cases
    What kind of maniacs are still taking cruises now?

  7. #8032
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    Sep 2006
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    One of the reasons for the fiasco.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...break-n1166186

    U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before coronavirus outbreak

    March 22, 2020, Several months before the coronavirus pandemic began, the Trump administration eliminated a key American public health position in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China, Reuters has learned.

    The American disease expert, a medical epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency, left her post in July, according to four sources with knowledge of the issue. The first cases of the new coronavirus may have emerged as early as November, and as cases exploded, the Trump administration in February chastised China for censoring information about the outbreak and keeping U.S. experts from entering the country to help.

    “It was heartbreaking to watch,” said Bao-Ping Zhu, a Chinese American who served in that role, which was funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between 2007 and 2011. “If someone had been there, public health officials and governments across the world could have moved much faster.”

    Zhu and the other sources said the American expert, Dr. Linda Quick, was a trainer of Chinese field epidemiologists who were deployed to the epicenter of outbreaks to help track, investigate and contain diseases. As an American CDC employee, they said, Quick was in an ideal position to be the eyes and ears on the ground for the United States and other countries on the coronavirus outbreak, and might have alerted them to the growing threat weeks earlier.

    No other foreign disease experts were embedded to lead the program after Quick left in July, according to the sources. Zhu said an embedded expert can often get word of outbreaks early, after forming close relationships with Chinese counterparts.

    Zhu and the other sources said Quick could have provided real-time information to U.S. and other officials around the world during the first weeks of the outbreak, when they said the Chinese government tamped down on the release of information and provided erroneous assessments.

    Quick left amid a bitter U.S. trade dispute with China when she learned her federally funded post, officially known as resident adviser to the U.S. Field Epidemiology Training Program in China, would be discontinued as of September, the sources said. The U.S. CDC said it first learned of a “cluster of 27 cases of pneumonia” of unexplained origin in Wuhan, China, on Dec. 31.

    Since then, the outbreak of the disease known as COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide, killing more than 13,600 people, infecting more than 317,000. The epidemic has overwhelmed healthcare systems some countries, including Italy, and threatens to do so in the United States and elsewhere.

    In a statement to Reuters, the U.S. CDC said the elimination of the adviser position did not hinder Washington’s ability to get information and “had absolutely nothing to do with CDC not learning of cases in China earlier.”

    The agency said its decision not to have a resident adviser “started well before last summer and was due to China’s excellent technical capability and maturity of the program.”

    The CDC said it has assigned two of its Chinese employees as “mentors” to help with the training program. The agency did not respond to questions about the mentors’ specific role or expertise.

    “CDC has had a 30-year partnership with China CDC and close collaboration,” the statement said. “We had the right staff to engage China and ability to provide technical assistance were it requested.”

    The CDC would not make Quick, who still works for the agency, available for comment.

    Asked for comment on Chinese transparency and responsiveness to the outbreak, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred Reuters to remarks by spokesman Geng Shuang on Friday. Geng said the country “has adopted the strictest, most comprehensive, and most thorough prevention and control measures in an open, transparent, and responsible manner, and informed the (World Health Organization) and relevant countries and regions of the latest situation in a timely manner.”

    One disease expert told Reuters he was skeptical that the U.S. resident adviser would have been able to get earlier or better information to the Trump administration, given the Chinese government’s suppression of information.

    “In the end, based on circumstances in China, it probably wouldn’t have had made a big difference,” Scott McNabb, who was a CDC epidemiologist for 20 years and is now a research professor at Emory University. “The problem was how the Chinese handled it. What should have changed was the Chinese should have acknowledged it earlier and didn’t.”

    Alex Azar, secretary of Health and Human Services, said Friday that his agency learned of the coronavirus in early January, based on Redfield’s conversations with “Chinese colleagues.”

    Redfield learned that “this looks to be a novel coronavirus” from Dr. Gao Fu, the head of the China CDC, according to an HHS administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Dr. Redfield always talked to Dr. Gao,” the official said.

    HHS and CDC did not make Azar or Redfield available for comment.

    Zhu and other sources said U.S. leaders should not have been relying on the China CDC director for alerts and updates. In general, they said, officials in China downplayed the severity of the outbreak in the early weeks and did not acknowledge evidence of person-to-person transmission until Jan. 20.

    After the epidemic exploded and China had imposed strict quarantines, Trump administration officials complained that the Chinese had censored information about the outbreak and that the United States had been unable to get American disease experts into the country to help contain the spread.

    Azar told CNN on Feb. 14 that he and CDC director Redfield officially offered to send a CDC team into China on Jan. 6 but still had not received permission for them to enter the country. HHS oversees the CDC.

    “Dr. Redfield and I made the offer on January 6th - 36 days ago, 60,000 cases and 1,300 deaths ago,” Azar said. “We made the offer to send the CDC experts in to assist their Chinese colleagues to get to the bottom of key scientific questions like, how transmissible is this disease? What is the severity? What is the incubation period and can there be asymptomatic transmission?”

    Days later, the World Health Organization secured permission to send a team that included two U.S. experts. The team visited between Feb. 16th and 24th. By then, China had reported more than 75,000 cases.

    On Feb. 25, the first day the CDC told the American public to prepare for an outbreak at home, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused China of mishandling the epidemic through its “censorship” of medical professionals and media.

    Relations between the two countries have deteriorated since then, as Trump has labeled the coronavirus the “Chinese virus” - a description the Chinese have condemned as stigmatizing. Last week, the Chinese government announced that Americans from three U.S. news organizations, The New York Times, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal, would be expelled from China.

    The decision to eliminate Quick’s job came as the CDC has scaled back the number of U.S. staffers in China over the last two years, the sources told Reuters.

    “We had already withdrawn many technical public health experts,” the same expert said.

    The CDC, however, disputed that staffing was a problem or that its information had been limited by the move. “It was not the staffing shortage that limited our ability” it said.

    The U.S. CDC team in Beijing now includes three American citizens in permanent roles, an additional American who is temporary and around 10 Chinese nationals, the agency said. Of the Americans, one is an influenza expert with expertise in respiratory disease. Coronavirus is not influenza, though it is a respiratory disease.

    The CDC team, aside from Quick, was housed at U.S. Embassy facilities. No American CDC staffer besides Quick was embedded with China’s disease control agency, the sources said.

    Nevertheless, the infectious disease experts who spoke with Reuters said, the United States could use people like Quick with contacts on the ground, especially if fears of a second wave of infections materializes.

    Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the CDC, said that if the U.S. resident adviser had still been in China, “it is possible that we would know more today about how this coronavirus is spreading and what works best to stop it.”

    Dr. George Conway, a medical epidemiologist who knows Quick and had served as resident advisor between 2012 and 2015, said funding for the position had been tenuous for years because of a perennial debate among U.S health officials over whether China should be paying for funding its own training program.

    Yet since the training program was launched in 2001, the sources familiar with it say, it has not only strengthened the ranks of Chinese epidemiologists in the field, but also fostered collegial relationships between public health officials in the two countries.

    “We go there as credentialed diplomats and return home as close colleagues and often as friends,” Conway said.

    In 2007, Dr. Robert Fontaine, a CDC epidemiologist and one of the longest serving U.S. officials in the adviser’s position, received China’s highest honor for outstanding contributions to public health due to his contribution as a foreigner in helping to detect and investigate clusters of pneumonia of unknown cause.

    But since last year, Frieden and others said, growing tensions between the Trump administration and China’s leadership have apparently damaged the collaboration.

    “The message from the administration was, ‘Don’t work with China, they’re our rival,’” Frieden said.

    In a news conference Sunday, Trump defended the move.

  8. #8033
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    Feb 2016
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    Chinese Rat Flu

    Some mags want to know if I’m still alive, so here’s a status report.

    Self quarantine day 11.
    COVID-19 day 10.

    Didn’t sleep well last night and woke up with sweats.
    Temperature was slightly up to 99.7F, so took two Tylenols to bring down a degree.
    Started working at 8:30am, got tired so took a nap during lunch break around noon.
    Can’t smell and don’t have appetite but force to eat some soup and two slices of bread.
    Boyfriend lost 17lbs in two weeks and I’m 7lbs down.
    The toll on our bodies will take some weeks and months to recover.

    Will report back some days later.

  9. #8034
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    Sounds promising no hospital and ventilator. Best wishes.

  10. #8035
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    the ham
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    Hang in there.

  11. #8036
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    Sep 2001
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    The Cone of Uncertainty
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    x2

    How's Art Shirk doing? He thought he had it but that's the last I can recall about him.

  12. #8037
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    Dec 2010
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    Damn. Thanks for checking in and stay strong.

  13. #8038
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Hind sight is 20/20, but if you have time, go read this thread from the beginning.
    Crazy to go back and read a few of those first pages. Just 2 months ago...

  14. #8039
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    Sep 2001
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    The Cone of Uncertainty
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    Quote Originally Posted by goldenboy View Post
    Crazy to go back and read a few of those first pages. Just 2 months ago...
    The "Kung Fu Fighting" jokes seem a little weak now.

  15. #8040
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    Feb 2016
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    Or killing or dying jokes are too real.
    I can’t just say “This thing is killing me!”.

  16. #8041
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
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    Eastern Idaho
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    Quote Originally Posted by nutmegchoi View Post
    Or killing or dying jokes are too real.
    I can’t just say “This thing is killing me!”.
    Stay strong and hope you both start to feeling better soon.

  17. #8042
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Missoula, MT
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    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post
    TGR's Cormac. Looking forward to the next chapter if I survive to read it.
    Thank you! That was exactly what I was going for.
    Actually everything is fine other than lack of tp. Some people are even out and about. It's snowing. Etc.
    No longer stuck.

    Quote Originally Posted by stuckathuntermtn View Post
    Just an uneducated guess.

  18. #8043
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    Sep 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by wkd-rdr View Post
    Germany's death rate is very small in comparison. Something different is happening there.
    Quote Originally Posted by powdork View Post
    it seems like it but i think we are seeing the results of early testing, which should significantly flatten the curve. However, I think another part of the early testing is they found cases before they are at the bad point. in other words, the deaths are just lagging timewise further behind the case numbers than most countries.
    WHOOSH!
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  19. #8044
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    Sep 2005
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    Hang in there nutmeg and boy of nutmeg.

    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    x2

    How's Art Shirk doing? He thought he had it but that's the last I can recall about him.
    He's still sick but ok.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  20. #8045
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    I should have given Wooley all my money and let him buy masks.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  21. #8046
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    Apr 2004
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    Southeast New York
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    11,738
    Quote Originally Posted by nutmegchoi View Post
    Some mags want to know if I’m still alive, so here’s a status report.

    Self quarantine day 11.
    COVID-19 day 10.

    Didn’t sleep well last night and woke up with sweats.
    Temperature was slightly up to 99.7F, so took two Tylenols to bring down a degree.
    Started working at 8:30am, got tired so took a nap during lunch break around noon.
    Can’t smell and don’t have appetite but force to eat some soup and two slices of bread.
    Boyfriend lost 17lbs in two weeks and I’m 7lbs down.
    The toll on our bodies will take some weeks and months to recover.

    Will report back some days later.
    Big virtual hugs headed your way

  22. #8047
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    Dec 2007
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    Hell Track
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    13,809
    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    WHOOSH!
    Maybe holocaust jokes are a little too highbrow for this crowd.

  23. #8048
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    Sep 2001
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    Before
    Posts
    27,877

    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by nutmegchoi View Post
    Some mags want to know if I’m still alive, so here’s a status report.

    Self quarantine day 11.
    COVID-19 day 10.

    Didn’t sleep well last night and woke up with sweats.
    Temperature was slightly up to 99.7F, so took two Tylenols to bring down a degree.
    Started working at 8:30am, got tired so took a nap during lunch break around noon.
    Can’t smell and don’t have appetite but force to eat some soup and two slices of bread.
    Boyfriend lost 17lbs in two weeks and I’m 7lbs down.
    The toll on our bodies will take some weeks and months to recover.

    Will report back some days later.
    +++++
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
    >>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<

  24. #8049
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    Nov 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    I should have given Wooley all my money and let him buy masks.
    Part of the early discussion was about how transmissibility estimates are not set in stone. How an effective infection control intervention along with people themselves adopting risk reducing behavior can get this under control even in the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines.

    Both the US and South Korea had their first diagnosed case within 24 hours back in January but SK managed to flatten the curve (03/24 9,000 cases 120 deaths). By Friday the US will reach 100,000 COVID-19 cases and approach 1000 deaths and our doubling rates and death rates are now the fastest for the world.

    We f'd this up. It's an embarrassment made worse because we used to be the best at this.

    Name:  DailyTests.jpg
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  25. #8050
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    Oct 2003
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    Prolly old news but a long read on Medium.

    What caught my eye is the graph in Chart 6, variation of different strains?
    Has the locals (Multiverse,Summit & All?) in know if the info (through Nexstrain?) stands closer scrutiny?
    Wondering if the possible mutation could also affect the lethality of the virus as well?

    [img]https://miro.medium.com/max/3200/0*9Ggoj59CoRvLNjzH[/img]

    Full text (from March 19th): https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

    Edit: Hotlinking for the image does not work, copy url and paste it...

    The floggings will continue until morale improves.

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