Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[BobMc]

Listening to our president on Hannity, we’re fucked.

[Lone Star]

I understand what they did, what I don't understand is who gave them access to my data.

You did, back when you downloaded that chintzy "What celebrity do I look like?" app and hastily clicked "OK" on the "Share location data" prompt

[Lone Star]

Listening to our president on Hannity, we’re fucked.

Our country's own fucking Goebbels. what is being said?

[smmokan]

I understand what they did, what I don't understand is who gave them access to my data.

From the video description, it sounds like the cellular carriers give it to them.

[Rideski]

The answer to the locations question is the many various apps people have installed with location trackers.

[Rideski]

Omfg, there can’t actually be 5 million Americans without running water?
While CEO’s make hundreds of millions of dollars per year?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...water-n1169351

[Lone Star]

"I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be," Trump said on Sean Hannity's program, "Hannity" on Fox News.


"I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You know, you go into major hospitals, sometimes they’ll have two ventilators. And now all of a sudden they're saying, 'can we order 30,000 ventilators?'"

"Look, it’s a bad situation," he added. "We haven’t seen anything like it. But the end result is we have to get back to work and I think we can start by opening up certain parts of the country."

[Bunion 2020]

Montana to Shelter in Place starting Saturday, sort of.

We have been in the shit for maybe 21 days now. In the aftermath of Pearl Harbor, America was in the shit for about 2.5 years before it was starting to be clear that we would eventually prevail.

Fucking America is such a bunch of pussies now.

[The SnowShow]

da fuck!?! How does a private company get all of this data?

https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...28347034767361

That’s insane!! But if it helps with getting us back to normal and use it the way South Korea did, I think I’m fine with it.

[huckbucket]

Omfg, there can’t actually be 5 million Americans without running water?
While CEO’s make hundreds of millions of dollars per year?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...water-n1169351

Christ! Can't these people just get back to work on Easter like the rest of us?

[BobMc]

Our country's own fucking Goebbels. what is being said?

The governors are being mean to him, Hannity will probably hear about the success of Hydrochloroquine before he does because “you know all about this Sean.”, New York doesn’t need 30,000 ventilators and they’re trying to get stuff they don’t need.

It was fucking surreal. Seriously mind boggled how people can listen to this idiot and be convinced we’re in good hands.

[bagtagley]

I’ve worked with anonymized cell phone data on a couple of occasions. Crazy shit. Each device has a unique ID, so it’s possible to determine travel patterns and temporal clusters for each device, making it relatively easy to estimate an individual’s home, place of work, favorite hangout. I say no to most apps and have location turned off most of the time. Probably makes no difference but makes me feel a little better.

As mentioned, the researchers we worked with bought the data from third party vendors. They wouldn’t give us much more info than that.

[LeeLau]

Cell phones have their own EIN. Most providers TOS require one to agree to allow use of "anonymized , aggregated data" including geolocation. Of course all personal info is stripped away
...trust me

[iceman]

what could possibly go wrong?

[Core Shot]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...ges-lungs.html

Morbidly interesting 3D image of lungs

[PNWbrit]

Yeah, I finally got notified that we were suspending field work and going strictly WFH for the duration of the state shelter in place order. None of the projects currently underway in my jurisdiction meet the criteria as "essential." I think it's the smart thing to do, although I'm sure the pushback from the construction industry has been vociferous.

Definitely relieved to be able to stay close to home for the next couple of weeks.

Good to hear that.

Let's have a beer when this is all done.

[bennymac]

[bodywhomper]

So what’s the over/under on the Ferguson Imperial Academy paper?

[altasnob]

Regarding cell phone data tracking, and also credit card transaction tracking, to find people possibly exposed to the virus, why don't they have a waiver you can sign to voluntary opt into the program. Sure, some (maybe most) Americans would refuse to sign up but a lot would (it would be to their benefit). This would get around constitutional privacy concerns. The waiver could be temporary and revoked at any time. Sounds like this is a major reason South Korea is able to function as a normal country despite having the virus. Ironically, Americans are totally cool with facebook and google having all that data on them but freak out about the government having it.

[Rideski]

Christ! Can't these people just get back to work on Easter like the rest of us?

/partialhumor

[powdork]

earlier there was a discussion about whether we were splitting ventilators. we are
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-patients.html

[Ottime]

And now American health care professionals are dying from corona because we don’t have PPEs. Winning. Most powerful country on earth somehow can supply the front lines. Sad.

[rideit]

“Heckuva job, Donnie!”

[LeeLau]

For data junkies

Very interesting visualizations tracking fatalities and healthcare system utlilization and drawdown state by state.

Kindly brought to my attention by @Molly Nixon

Background paper with assumptions http://www.healthdata.org/sites/defa...2v1-Murray.pdf

Lead paper introduction http://www.healthdata.org/research-a...ays-and-deaths

Good news is that estimates of US Fatalities throughout summer are less than expected - approx 81,000 fatalities

NOTE

- key assumptions are social distancing measures continue.
- resource rate utilization is variable from state to state. Some states are overwhelmed (NY LA), Some states hold up (WA)
- data is extrapolated from time-series from Wuhan. Is the Wuhan data accurate?

ORIGINAL POST BY MOLLY NIXON

There have been a lot of items circulating with forecasts for COVID-19, but many of them have been hacked together by non-experts (and it turns out this stuff is actually really complicated).

I happen to work at a world class global health research institution here in Seattle (the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) that specializes in estimating health burden (deaths, cases, etc). We've thrown a team of extremely talented experts at COVID modeling for the past few weeks, and just released the first round of models to the public this morning. This initial release covers daily deaths, hospital-bed days, ICU-days and ventilator-days for every US state for the next 4 months.

Importantly - this isn't a static model. We are continuing to incorporate huge amounts of new data and the goal is to update the model EVERY DAY. As the epidemic evolves and different control measures are implemented (or not), our forecasts will change in response.

Our current predictions (from the paper linked below) are:
"Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6."

The primary mode for accessing the forecasts is a visual tool (linked below) - it's a little slow at the moment, it's getting a lot of traffic. This tool will be updated to reflect our latest model run. The solid lines indicate our estimates, while the shading denotes uncertainty intervals. Please note that the "United States of America" set of figures is missing the horizontal lines that indicate bed availability (which makes sense, because beds in Connecticut are not useful for patients with COVID in New Mexico). If you look at the state-specific forecasts, they include bed availability.

If you want all the nitty gritty of the modeling parameters, an accompanying paper has been submitted to medRxiv

[KenJongIll]

da fuck!?! How does a private company get all of this data?

https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...28347034767361

Yeah, that’s disturbing...not that in the back of my mind someone knows every fucking thing/thought I do/have.