Fear and Loathing, a Rat Flu Odyssey

[glademaster]

They're going to find us all dead in front of the flat screen with some binge watching series cued up on Netflix.

It doesn't get any more American than that. That's precisely how every red blooded patriot dreams of dying in 2020.

[Steve Lavigne]

Our test should be ready next week, should have some sero-surveillance assays available by April.

That is amazing. Thank you for the great work, and please keep it up! The antibody test sounds like a key diagnostic.

Vibes for your missed Nash laps.

[powdork]

Evergreen Health in Washington State quits testing for covid-19 says cdc says area is endemic

Last paragraph before questions has it
the whole read...
https://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus

cliff notes...
Attachment 319192

It doesn't say they have quit testing for Covid altogether, just that they have quit doing the nasal testing at their outpatient clinics. Whether or not that is an important distinction I have no idea.

[frorider]

for the record, the CDC issue was with contamination in the Negative Control - the corona virus primer set from the CDC works fine in our lab, but if the neg control gives a pos band then all results are invalid. Now why they didn't catch it before sending out the first round of kits and why they managed to cross contaminate in a controlled lab are the issues.

Our test should be ready next week, should have some sero-surveillance assays available by April.

Appreciate your expertise, but I think it was already public knowledge why the CDC-developed test had issues when deployed. Meanwhile the question above was why CDC didn’t follow the fast approach used by so many other countries & just adopt the WHO test in the first place. I’m not positing any conspiracy theory, just curious since time was of the essence & it appears to us dentists that Canada had their shit together much better than we did.

To anyone wondering why hurricane Katrina response impacted Bush, or why Trump is worried about how this will impact his approval ratings, I don’t know what more to tell you. It is what it is. Personally my public health objectives are not connected to the benefit or damage to whomever is President.

[iceman]

https://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus

Probably the most notable thing on there to me is they are putting the Ro at .5%. My -very- limited understanding is that below 1% it's destined to fizzle out. I guess my two questions would be, is my understanding correct, and, is the figure of ..5% correct?

[powdork]

Probably the most notable thing on there to me is they are putting the Ro at .5%. My -very- limited understanding is that below 1% it's destined to fizzle out. I guess my two questions would be, is my understanding correct, and, is the figure of ..5% correct?

Yes but the total R0 includes the close proximity transmission of 10% as well, plus everything in between.

[rideit]

Who said anything about being a trump supporter. It’s unhealthy the amount of finger pointing going on. If you read any thread around here it’s always about Trump. Really, pick any topic. Trump. Wagon stoke, can get good ones in America because trump hates imports, snow reports, trump doesn’t believe in global warming, it’s his fault. Stock market, no credit on the way up, but it’s his fault on the way down.
In the old days old arguments devolved into calling someone a Nazi. Now it’s simply Trump.
You know right or wrong he’s been around 3 years. That’s it. He didn’t create our fractured halethcare network, he didn’t create private insurers, he didn’t issue in the era of hospital mergers that leave rural areas at risk.
He didn’t outsource your medication production to China either. He’s never been in pharmacology as far as I know.
Did his shows and casinos suck, absolutely.
However, any president with our fractured network of healthcare would give you the option of a simply a swift kick in the balls or a shit sandwich.
You would never get the response of South Korea or China here. It’s just the way it is today.
But you treat Trump like some omnipotent boogie man. Vote him out, maybe his base will be dead on cruise ships. But this type of scenario has been warned for decades and we collectively have ignored it and let out healthcare rot as well.


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The buck stops where, exactly, these days?

[AK47bp]

Evergreen Health in Washington State quits testing for covid-19 says cdc says area is endemic

Last paragraph before questions has it
the whole read...
https://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus

cliff notes...
Attachment 319192

Protocol for a little while now has been for patients with Covid symptoms to NOT physically go to Urgent Care clinics. They will turn you away at the door.

They haven’t stopped testing, just protecting healthcare front line workers who have to deal with this. There are many many exposed healthcare frontline workers right now, many of them with symptoms.


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[glademaster]

They haven’t stopped testing, just protecting healthcare front line workers who have to deal with this. There are many many exposed healthcare frontline workers right now, many of them with symptoms.

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Buy the ticket, take the ride.

[riser4]

you need to CALL your Doctor.
If you are sick and concerned it may be the covid, DO NOT go to your Dr. or the ER. You are placing a great strain on the health care system by taking your potential germs into that setting. Call the covid hotline to see how to get tested (good luck with that).

Duh. I have not stepped foot out of the house. I was on the phone yesterday and then my wife started making calls on my behalf. Sheesh.

[riser4]

Riser, when I had crazy chills that turned to burning fever and back to chills (and kept going back and forth), I had Lyme disease. Never saw a tick on me or had the bullseye rash thing at all. It's been a mild winter, ticks are still alive here and there even in your hood I bet.

Not going back and forth so far. It really feels like a flu.

[LongShortLong]

this thread is propagating faster than the virus

ok, we're at 2500 posts. Patient zero, the first post, appeared Jan 25, 42 days ago. 2500 is a little more than 2^11. 42/11 suggests a doubling rate of about 4 days. Coronavirus doubles in about 5 days (with the qualifier that China's response had vastly slowed coronavirus when I did the math)

You sir are correct.

[LongShortLong]

ok, we're at 2500 posts. Patient zero, the first post, appeared Jan 25, 42 days ago. 2500 is a little more than 2^11. 42/11 suggests a doubling rate of about 4 days. Coronavirus doubles in about 5 days (with the qualifier that China's response had vastly slowed coronavirus when I did the math)

You sir are correct.

However, a quick check finds the 1250th post occurred 8 days ago. This suggests posts are not spreading exponentially, and the exponential model is a bad fit for chineseratflupost virus.

[Micol]

cheap keystone condo.......vailable .....4u

http://www.co.summit.co.us/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=550

Summit County Identifies Keystone Condo Where COVID-19 Case Stayed
CDC illustration of ultrastructural morphology exhibited by coronaviruses.
No other guests checked into the unit following the departure of the infected person

Contact: Amy Wineland, Summit County Public Health Director, 970-668-9161

Summit County – Summit County Public Health Officials have identified the condominium unit where Colorado’s first COVID-19 case stayed in Keystone. No other lodging guests have checked into the unit since the departure of the infected person.

As part of the ongoing investigation and contact tracing process, Summit County officials conducted several interviews late Thursday night and early Friday morning, including with the property owner, property management company and multiple workers.

Through the interviews, officials determined the unit number of the condo, located in the Slopeside Condominiums complex. The unit number was not initially known because the infected individual did not personally make the lodging reservation and could not recall the unit number during interviews with CDPHE Thursday. Contact information for the remaining members of the individual’s party was not immediately available to Summit County Public Health officials.

Officials were also able to determine that the unit has not been occupied by any guests since the infected person’s departure. One cleaning worker entered the unit approximately 23 hours after the infected individual checked out. The worker’s risk of having contracting the virus is considered to be very low. According to CDC guidance to in-home family members of people who are infectious with COVID-19, intermediary surfaces are generally not considered capable of transmitting the novel coronavirus after two hours following contact by the infectious person. According to CDPHE, there is not any risk of the worker passing on novel coronavirus infection by cleaning other units after cleaning the unit occupied by the infected person.

One worker delivered towels to the guests, but did not enter the unit. A maintenance worker entered the unit to change batteries in a carbon monoxide detector. Neither of these two workers had any prolonged interactions with any of the guests in the unit, and both are considered to be at very low risk of contracting the virus.

Out of an abundance of caution, Summit County Public Health staff are working with the property management company and the unit owner to coordinate a second cleaning of the unit. It will not be occupied by any new guests until such cleaning has been completed.

For more information about coronavirus in Colorado, visit CDPHE’s website at https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cdp...el-coronavirus.

###

[Flyoverland Captive]

Trump maybe not so much on the praying thing, but he's sure as fuck hoping.

Is there a difference?

[KQ]

you need to CALL your Doctor.
If you are sick and concerned it may be the covid, DO NOT go to your Dr. or the ER. You are placing a great strain on the health care system by taking your potential germs into that setting. Call the covid hotline to see how to get tested (good luck with that).

Yes call not go in.


Should have said "get back to your doctor." I'm not always accurate when I'm typing on my phone. Sorry.

[powdork]

Duh. I have not stepped foot out of the house. I was on the phone yesterday and then my wife started making calls on my behalf. Sheesh.

I figured. that was more a general reply to KQ saying to go to the Doctor, although she was saying it in jest

[Rideski]

However, a quick check finds the 1250th post occurred 8 days ago. This suggests posts are not spreading exponentially, and the exponential model is a bad fit for chineseratflupost virus.

If you could add into your extrapolations the 82,480 thread views to correlate the untested carriers, we could have a clearer picture.

[Yonder_River]

Protocol for a little while now has been for patients with Covid symptoms to NOT physically go to Urgent Care clinics. They will turn you away at the door.

They haven’t stopped testing, just protecting healthcare front line workers who have to deal with this. There are many many exposed healthcare frontline workers right now, many of them with symptoms.


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Yep. Local Seattle area hospital (not evergreen) currently has 40 medical staff on 14 day quarantine due to ONE covid patient who self-presented and was in icu prior to diagnosis.

[splat]

Duh. I have not stepped foot out of the house. I was on the phone yesterday and then my wife started making calls on my behalf. Sheesh.

Great. You shared a phone with her. Was it disinfected? Sorry, had to say it....

Just found out NV had 40 cruise ship passengers that returned home, including kids who have been back in school for weeks.
School a few miles from me is now closed.

[AK47bp]

Yep. Local Seattle area hospital (not evergreen) currently has 40 medical staff on 14 day quarantine due to ONE covid patient who self-presented and was in icu prior to diagnosis.

Based on what I’m seeing I would highly recommend canceling or rescheduling any unnecessary medical visits. Preventative care checkups, etc. especially in clinics with urgent care service.




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[Benny Profane]

Trump is in Florida, there's no way anybody keeps him from golfing.

And Pence is just a few miles away talking to cruise ship CEOs, whose industry is dissolving.

[KQ]

Based on what I’m seeing I would highly recommend canceling or rescheduling any unnecessary medical visits. Preventative care checkups, etc. especially in clinics with urgent care service.




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My GF, a lifelong heavy smoker in her 60s, is scheduled for shoulder replacement surgery next week at Evergreen. I keep wondering if that's really a good idea at this juncture.


And as if we don't have enough to think about, this showed up in my local paper last night:

Making plans for Fluffy and Fido


Blue Mountain Humane Society Executive Director Sara Archer is encouraging people to include their pets in preparedness plans for dealing with the novel coronavirus COVID-19.

The virus is a zoonotic disease, Archer said, meaning it passed from an animal or insect to a human. In China, a dog has tested “weak positive” for coronavirus, health officials said.

That finding has led to people in China dropping pets off at animal shelters in displaced fear, Archer said, and animal experts in the United States are working to keep the same from happening here.

“There is widespread concern around the state for what happens to pets when people are hospitalized. Do they come to shelters? Do we isolate those animals? There is so much we don’t know yet,” she said.

This virus has captured attention and forced planning in a way influenza has not, Archer said.

“Because the flu is not a zoonotic disease.”

On Thursday, Archer participated in a conference meeting with animal shelter leaders around the state, all of whom are trying to stem the panic of the animal-owning public, she said.

The World Small Animal Veterinary Association stated there is no evidence companion animals can be infected with or spread the coronavirus, a view shared by World Health Organization.

In the rapidly evolving situation, however, people with confirmed cases should avoid contact with other people and pets alike, the association said.

BMHS joins the Humane Society of the United States and Association for Animal Welfare Advancement in encouraging people to create plans for their pets as COVID-19 spreads.

In addition to preparations typically recommended for any natural disaster threat, pet owners should do the following:

-Identify family members or friends to care for pets if someone in the household becomes ill and is hospitalized.
-Research potential boarding facilities in case boarding your pet becomes necessary.
-Have crates, food and extra supplies for your pet on hand if moving them becomes necessary, or if the disease spreads in the community and it becomes necessary to stay out of stores.
-Check that pet vaccines are up to date in the event boarding becomes necessary.
-Ensure all medications are documented with dose and instructions. Including the prescription from the prescribing veterinarian is also helpful.
-Verify that pets have identification including a collar with current ID tags and a registered microchip.
-Always wash hands after being around animals.
-If diagnosed with COVID-19, avoid contact and sharing food with all animals. If you cannot, wash hands before and after interacting and wear a face mask, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Archer said she recommends being diligent in preparations, but not panicking. And pet owners should do their own research through trusted sources, not rely on social media rumors or misinformation.

“I don’t want to create a problem that doesn’t exist. It is a question people are asking, and it a reasonable question. Ignorance is our enemy.”

By creating a plan ahead of time “for the unlikely event it becomes necessary,” people can help ensure local animal resources do not become overwhelmed, she said.

The animal shelter is accepting foster home applications to help offset potential impacts on pets related to COVID-19. For more information on fostering, adopting and coronavirus in animals, go to bluemountainhumane.org.

[Game Over]

:roll eyes:

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-s...ther-zoonotic)

Influenza (Avian and other zoonotic)

Key facts

Humans can be infected with avian, swine and other zoonotic influenza viruses, such as avian influenza virus subtypes A(H5N1), A(H7N9), and A(H9N2) and swine influenza virus subtypes A(H1N1), A(H1N2) and A(H3N2).

Human infections are primarily acquired through direct contact with infected animals or contaminated environments, these viruses have not acquired the ability of sustained transmission among humans.

Avian, swine and other zoonotic influenza virus infections in humans may cause disease ranging from mild upper respiratory tract infection (fever and cough), early sputum production and rapid progression to severe pneumonia, sepsis with shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome and even death. Conjunctivitis, gastrointestinal symptoms, encephalitis and encephalopathy have also been reported to varying degrees depending on subtype.

The majority of human cases of influenza A (H5N1) and A(H7N9) virus infection have been associated with direct or indirect contact with infected live or dead poultry. Controlling the disease in the animal source is critical to decrease risk to humans.

Influenza viruses, with the vast silent reservoir in aquatic birds, are impossible to eradicate. Zoonotic influenza infection in humans will continue to occur. To minimize public health risk, quality surveillance in both animal and human populations, thorough investigation of every human infection and risk-based pandemic planning are essential.

[buttahflake]

I’m watching the Nordic Combined from Oslo, no one, not a single soul, in the stands.
Fucking weird