Page 28 of 36 FirstFirst ... 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 ... LastLast
Results 676 to 700 of 887
  1. #676
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    721
    Throughout the Cascades, Avi hazard is going from Considerable today to High on Thursday, at and above tree line, as the rain sets in. Water loading will cause high altitude wet slides that can runout for literally miles. Seems like this means the odds increase substantially for another big slide in Mt Hoodís Clark and Heather Canyons for the remainder of the season.

    Is it a gnarlier than average year in all of the Northwest states, or am I just more attuned to it lately? I canít tell.

  2. #677
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    formally Roch, now HMB
    Posts
    171
    Quote Originally Posted by mattig View Post
    Cresting a 100' base in mid Jan comes with a price and we're about to pay it, FML... Hopefully it turns around. And if it doesn't, It'll at least be cool to be able to host the first ever summit-to-lodge pond skim.



    Previous posts have been too optimistic about what's coming down the weather pike. I would turn around and see if the weather will follow you back down to cali (please?). Whether it was you or someone else, forecasts show the biggest dose of the R-word in any January as long as I can remember.

    You're basically completely fucked if you want to ski anywhere within a 2 hour detour from your travel route in OR. Mt. Hood is completely out of the question. Swim goggles and water wings for the next week and a half. Bachy is your best and only bet. Earlier and higher the better.



    Not his van JONG. *A* van.
    Mattig, Thanks for the weather beta...I am also going to brave the moist precip at Bachy this coming weekend from away....Sat and Sun...wife and I...Legend X106s, Green pants(because forecast, Gore Tex)...if any one wants to say HI, make some turns, Ive been told I can Keep Up, but hey prove me wrong ;-)

  3. #678
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Eugenio Oregůn
    Posts
    7,190
    Quote Originally Posted by lucknau View Post
    Throughout the Cascades, Avi hazard is going from Considerable today to High on Thursday, at and above tree line, as the rain sets in. Water loading will cause high altitude wet slides that can runout for literally miles. Seems like this means the odds increase substantially for another big slide in Mt Hoodís Clark and Heather Canyons for the remainder of the season.

    Is it a gnarlier than average year in all of the Northwest states, or am I just more attuned to it lately? I canít tell.
    Iíll admit that this season Iím still following Sierra avalanche observations way more than NWAC, COAC, and Idaho Panhandle ... but why would you think that Clark and Heather canyons would be at higher susceptibility for the rest of the season? The typical mechanism for such a season long concern would be early season basal facets or near crust facets that are deeply buried, not totally reactive, but still prone to propagation. Have you heard anything about such a setup, or similar, this season? Big wet slide danger goes away once temps drop and refreezes get stronger.

    High freezing levels with rain on snow events has been a PNW fact of life like 2 out of every 3 seasons, feel free to call me out on that!

    Idaho is a different story and has a crappy setup this year, I get the sense that early season snow plus dry spells created multiple facet layers that were heavily loaded by the big storms that hit during the first 2 weeks of the year. Those problems donít go away quickly unless everything avalanches (not as common there as in coastal mountains) or goes melt freeze.
    _______________________________________________
    "Strapping myself to a sitski built with 30lb of metal and fibreglass then trying to water ski in it sounds like a stupid idea to me.

    I'll be there."
    ... Andy Campbell

  4. #679
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Top o pahto
    Posts
    167
    I'm with you schralph - don't think we will see increased probability of a huge newton, heather, or clark canyon slide for the remaining season due to this next storm.

    This next ra*n storm will likely lubricate the snowpack during the event, but following the event and subsequent refreeze, I would expect somewhat increased stability due to consolidation and settlement.

    I like to think of it as a mini pre-spring consolidation event.

    Dust off your PVC gear, smile, and hit the slopes. "It's good for the base."

  5. #680
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Eugenio Oregůn
    Posts
    7,190
    ^ yup. And this next comment isn't for you river, it's for lucknau and anyone concerned about future problems ...

    The scenario to watch for after we get the bulletproof rain crust we are soon expecting, is less than 10" of cold new snow on top followed by a week of clear skies and super cold temps (like low teens or less overnight) ... then we could into get some nasty lingering stuff in the upper snowpack. It's not very common here, but that's basically what happened in the Sierra Nevada between New Year and last week (in case you heard about the Alpine Meadows accident and all the other close calls reported in the last week). And if that scenario plays out you can be sure that NWAC and COAC will be all over it.
    _______________________________________________
    "Strapping myself to a sitski built with 30lb of metal and fibreglass then trying to water ski in it sounds like a stupid idea to me.

    I'll be there."
    ... Andy Campbell

  6. #681
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    inpdx
    Posts
    12,427
    what loads on top of the end of this r**n event
    that will be a significant layer in the snowpack to remember

  7. #682
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Top o pahto
    Posts
    167
    Damn. I hadn't heard about that squaw incident.

    It's easy to ignore the possibility of inbounds slides when control work has been done and a run is "open." I feel for the patrollers and victims. That has to be heartbreaking.

  8. #683
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Bend, OR
    Posts
    185
    Good times skiing Cloudchaser with jonesy & TBS today, seems we hit timing just right before the surface turned to glop, too bad we couldnít see what we were doing...

  9. #684
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    50 miles E of Paradise
    Posts
    8,730
    ^^^It was a good day to test waterproof/breathable fabrics. Reminiscent of Timberline conditions...
    I can report that my Antero II jacket, Baker bibs and FTP gloves kept me dry as a nun's vagina (tm Joe Strummer)
    Check Out Ullr's Mobile Avalanche Safety Tools for iOS and Android
    www.ullrlabs.com

  10. #685
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    PNWET
    Posts
    3,765
    grazie solo gente del posto lower sunlot. Personal chair lift, RV parking and immaculate groomers. Ski in ski outClick image for larger version. 

Name:	20200121_164230.jpg 
Views:	46 
Size:	366.0 KB 
ID:	311967
    Last edited by jonesy; 01-22-2020 at 08:59 PM.
    https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=3982&dateline=1279375  363

  11. #686
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    721
    Yeah, youíre right. I guess Iím thinking that if a deluge is on the way, the water loading on the recent massive snow dump plus possibility of temperatures staying mild mean thereís a significant near term massive wet slide hazard.

    Iím kind of stuck in a loop assuming the mean temperature will remain consistently higher this year, given the shite weather pattern so far. Iíll gladly be wrong about that, but until the cold sets in, I will remain spooked.

  12. #687
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    50 miles E of Paradise
    Posts
    8,730
    Hmmm, Cloudcatcher closed today due to "unsafe snow conditions". As is the wet side of the hill...
    Check Out Ullr's Mobile Avalanche Safety Tools for iOS and Android
    www.ullrlabs.com

  13. #688
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    PNWET
    Posts
    3,765
    Snow bombs from trees, Rime, creeks on runs.
    https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=3982&dateline=1279375  363

  14. #689
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Tahoe-ish
    Posts
    761
    Well, we stopped at Crater anyway, since staying at one of the Sno Parks outside of the park made sense. The snow was pretty terrible but we got a little walk on skis in and almost caught a glimpse of the lake. Next stop will likely be Baker after visiting some friends in Tacoma, so here's hoping it gets cold again.

    Sent from my LG-US998 using TGR Forums mobile app
    ride bikes, climb, ski, travel, cook, work to fund former, repeat.

  15. #690
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    PNWET
    Posts
    3,765
    Cascade pass roads are wet & bare. Easy roll over to 5 & into the evergreen state.
    https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=3982&dateline=1279375  363

  16. #691
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    HR
    Posts
    287
    Quote Originally Posted by mattig View Post
    forecasts show the biggest dose of the R-word in any January as long as I can remember.
    I think you might have a short memory.

    Mt. Hood is completely out of the question. Swim goggles and water wings for the next week and a half. Bachy is your best and only bet. Earlier and higher the better.
    What are you looking at? Sun night, Monday, Tuesday look ok on Hood. Late in the week doesn't currently look like we'll need an Ark either.

  17. #692
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,388
    Quote Originally Posted by Grizz View Post
    I think you might have a short memory.

    short something, but it ain't a memory

    Quote Originally Posted by Grizz View Post

    What are you looking at? Sun night, Monday, Tuesday look ok on Hood. Late in the week doesn't currently look like we'll need an Ark either.
    Name:  rain.png
Views: 302
Size:  421.0 KB
    Name:  more rain.png
Views: 304
Size:  308.8 KB
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	ridic-u-rain.png 
Views:	42 
Size:	653.2 KB 
ID:	312055

    One thing I look at that most others don't is the temps at various altitudes. When there's pervasive sub-freezing air at 6400-ish feet (and especially when that remains true at lower points in the air column), and when that's true for hundreds of miles in any direction from the mountain, we tend to get good snow unless there's a truly uncommon inversion. I'm sure there are other indicators to watch that are more scientific, but this has worked for me over time, and I don't think I've made a strong weather call in here without being mostly right. I don't like to raise red flags if they're just whiny bullshit that doesn't pan out. Anyway, temps at altitudes... Caveat: the worst of the lot is about a week from now, which has less forecast reliability, but if it holds fairly steady, we're looking at stupid high winds, moderate rain and 40 degree temps. That's ark-level water on the ground between precip and meltage. And yes, Sunday night looks sorta OK on paper. It could even turn out that way. It could also be sleety, snainy bullshit. Too close to call.

    Name:  no bueno.png
Views: 303
Size:  410.4 KB
    Name:  s'ok.png
Views: 305
Size:  413.3 KB
    Name:  yuck.png
Views: 309
Size:  433.8 KB

  18. #693
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Under a bridge in YakTown waiting for the shuttle to Nachos
    Posts
    682
    ^ what site did you pull those from?

  19. #694
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    HR
    Posts
    287
    Quote Originally Posted by mattig View Post
    I don't like to raise red flags if they're just whiny bullshit that doesn't pan out....Too close to call.
    You look like a windy.com master. So far it seems like normal January weather on Hood to me.

    I think more than three days out isn't reliable. NWAC numbers don't look bad through Monday.

    Water wings, goggles and largest dose of the r word in memory seems like hyperbole. But, then again who knows. We have a week left in January and like you're saying it might turn into something special.

  20. #695
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,388
    Quote Originally Posted by Grizz View Post
    You look like a windy.com master. So far it seems like normal January weather on Hood to me.

    I think more than three days out isn't reliable. NWAC numbers don't look bad through Monday.

    Water wings, goggles and largest dose of the r word in memory seems like hyperbole. But, then again who knows. We have a week left in January and like you're saying it might turn into something special.
    Granted, a bit of hyperbole. There are at least a few days coming up here that aren't going to avoid sucking. It happens. I'm gonna put on my poncho and go tear it up.

    January overall will be great even if this week sucks as hard as possible. Simply put, if the forecast holds, this last week of the month is bad in terms r*** plus wind plus temps. My birthday week, so I have perfect recall of all late Jan weather patterns going back to 1980.

    @patatero, windy.com

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

  21. #696
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,006
    So what's the prognosis for Mt Hood on Sunday? Will be out that way this weekend. I will bring the skis and gear regardless, but do I also need to pack a garbage bag for the skiing, or will my Gore-Tex suffice?
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  22. #697
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Posts
    79
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    So what's the prognosis for Mt Hood on Sunday? Will be out that way this weekend. I will bring the skis and gear regardless, but do I also need to pack a garbage bag for the skiing, or will my Gore-Tex suffice?
    It is suppose to rain Sat night and snow sunday. The freezing level will be right at the base of the resort so if it is snow it will be heavy wet snow. Although if the forecasted temp is off a little bit in either direction, it could make it a pretty decent or pretty wet day.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  23. #698
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,388
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    So what's the prognosis for Mt Hood on Sunday? Will be out that way this weekend. I will bring the skis and gear regardless, but do I also need to pack a garbage bag for the skiing, or will my Gore-Tex suffice?

    Fuck me, I thought I replied to this, but it ain't here. Sorry.

    Anyway, no garbage bag needed for sunday. Pineapple delivery mostly an overnight thing on Saturday and then again middle of next week.

    Next weekend starting to look better, and especially next Sunday when forecast currently calls for a return of the cold air we want.

  24. #699
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Posts
    836
    what are your thoughts about tomorrow? Something I am seeing is showing that it might not be too extremely wet mid-day. I will bring up an extra parka to change out but I'm not skiing in a bag. As long as I can see I am good until my pants get too uncomfortable. potentially more wind Sunday no?

    I have a friend that wants to pick Saturday or Sunday and I'm not sure what to tell him

    Quote Originally Posted by mattig View Post
    Fuck me, I thought I replied to this, but it ain't here. Sorry.

    Anyway, no garbage bag needed for sunday. Pineapple delivery mostly an overnight thing on Saturday and then again middle of next week.

    Next weekend starting to look better, and especially next Sunday when forecast currently calls for a return of the cold air we want.

  25. #700
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,006
    Quote Originally Posted by PNW-skier78 View Post
    It is suppose to rain Sat night and snow sunday. The freezing level will be right at the base of the resort so if it is snow it will be heavy wet snow. Although if the forecasted temp is off a little bit in either direction, it could make it a pretty decent or pretty wet day.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Thanks. Will pack an extra pair of gloves and goggles just because you can never have too many pairs of gloves or goggles...
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •