Ski Chile 2019

[Casey E]

Appears the good times have been rolling in Antillanca, have a look, you are invitadísimo!

https://www.instagram.com/p/B0W4eOlg...on_share_sheet

[Mike Pow]

Fabulous.

Very fond memories of Antillanca.

[Casey E]

Lets see how fast someone can guess what ski area this is. Pine trees, rocky peaks, Chile? (Facebook foto from this week)

[Casey E]

Rock and roll in the central zone

[Casey E]

The calm after the storm.



I wonder how long will it take to dig out the Cumbre t-bar..., the best lift south of Don Otto in Chillan. The next best lift is El Haique t-bar in Antillanca.

[Casey E]

28C today in Santiago, tragic for the bit of snow left. With no snow in the fcst north of Chillan, the central zone with be hard pressed to get past the Aug 15 long weekend, at least with any significant number of runs available.

[peterbmoorman]

wow. sad times for the central zone! 28C is just downright tropical weather.

Maybe September will bring something???

[Casey E]

Chillan blew again yesterday

A tourist got this on video
https://www.cooperativa.cl/noticias/...04/191221.html



and Sernageomin published this risk map



One lift gets into the "lesser" probability of impacts zone, and ash could fall down into the ski area base. That lift has a bail out zone half way up, for your tranquility.

[byates1]

legit.

[Mike Pow]

Lets see how fast someone can guess what ski area this is. Pine trees, rocky peaks, Chile? (Facebook foto from this week)

OOOOOOH

Where please?

[skideeppow]

looking grim down in chile.

https://www.skiracing.com/stories/sw...o-lack-of-snow

[Casey E]

OOOOOOH

Where please?

Volcán Antuco
http://www.skiantuco.cl/site/

Basically a one lift ski area (platter), but with about 400m vertical.

[Casey E]

Geez this just popped up on my screen saver



Road to Portillo, Juncal lift, August 1984

Same day, yours truly takes the back door out from Tio Bobs, sporting a jean jacket and two different poles. I had style....

[gnarbro365]

Oof....

[enginerd]

So...anyone going to be around Santiago Labor Day weekend?


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Casey E]

So, officially, the “ENSO Alert System Status” is now “Final El Niño Advisory”

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml

They go on to recognize

“The latest IRI/CPC plume of forecasts of the Niño-3.4 index [Fig. 6] favors ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C), with index values greater than zero from late Northern Hemisphere summer into fall, warming closer to the El Niño threshold (+0.5°C) by winter. Atypically, dynamical models forecast weaker positive SST anomalies than statistical models throughout most of the forecast period. As a result, while forecasters favor ENSO-neutral conditions, the odds of El Niño (~30%) are roughly twice that of La Niña for next winter. In summary, El Niño has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (50-55% chance”.

All these plumes mean little when on the ground, it is drought or drought. For perspective, Chile is now 18th in the world for water stress, up there with the Middle East.

[TonyC]

^^^ I would say 12 years since they had a very good year from start to finish.
I was at Las Lenas last year and an old timer there told me it had been 10 years since they had a really good season. I've never been to Bariloche, which is further south, but I think they have had some good seasons lately.

The last above average season for Portillo/Valle Nevado/Las Lenas was 2009. The last big season was 2005. I have June-Sept snowfall for Las Lenas through 2015, my last visit there. 2010-2015 averaged 116 inches vs. 208 from 1984-2009. I doubt 2016-19 are any better than 2010-15.

Chillan and Corralco have had some good recent seasons, but that's mostly anecdotal; I've never seen detail stats.

The Las Lenas stats since 1984 show June and July as peak snowfall months. August averages 3/4 of July and September averages less than half of July. Santiago rainfall has a similar pattern. Portillo's website shows 48 inches snowfall season to date. Thus the probability is high that you can stick a fork in the Central Mountains/Las Lenas ski season.

In western North American mountains average snowfall December-March is fairly even. Thus we occasionally get a slow starting "March Miracle" season like 1990-91 and 2017-18 in the California Sierra. Do not expect this to happen in Chile. I believe the "Santa Rosa" legend exists because the late August/start of September is literally the last time you might see a major dump. That might happen at least a month later in western North America (Alpine Meadows avalanche 1982).

[Beder]

Some folks I know are abandoning Valle Nevado today and heading for Corralco, where it's supposed to be pretty good.

[Casey E]

Some folks I know are abandoning Valle Nevado today and heading for Corralco, where it's supposed to be pretty good.

That would certainly be my advice. Seems the Cumbre lift is open now, with room to tour high, and a low snow line.

Could try Las Araucarias sort of nearby too. I might be there Tuesday, with fresh, if the astros align. Which they are doing, tonight, as in the gibbous moon, Jupiter, and Antares. Look north after nightfall, at least from my latitude.

[Casey E]

Antillanca has the best snow info in Chile after Portillo. Corralco has slipped down the ladder.



“Condicional al clima” means conditional in general, so it is a gamble if you want to ride a lift.

And they post inspiring shots like this, looking east to the top of the chair and the Raihuen crater.



This is probably the easiest place in Chile to ski into a crater (extinct, I think...), with several to choose from. The Haique cinder cone is a short 100m schuss and 100m hike up from the lift of that name. It is part of the Antillanca group, which includes V Casablanca.

[Casey E]

This graph shows the estimated snowfall distribution for July 2014-19, roughly Portillo south to Villarrica, which varies widely



Zooming way out, this is a snowfall graph at a mining weather station between Santiago and Portillo, 2,700m.



This year is headed to 1998 levels, except in 98 the ski areas never did open.

And to round things out, the country wide drought graph for the past 4 years

[Casey E]

Snowing at the base of V Osorno, a good sign the freezing level is low for this dump.


Nukin’ in Corralco too

[Casey E]

Using google maps in Chile is, like most places, a real gamble when getting onto the back roads. My search for the best route from ]
my rancho to “Refugio Llaima” or “ Nevados de Vilcun”, gave me this:



Now that “fastest” route takes in around 70km of graveled roads in dubious condition in the winter. Anytime you try to go north south away from the Panam Ruta 5 highway, look twice to what you are getting into. East-west is normally fine and paved, mostly. I called the Cunco cops and they said the “Ruta Interlagos”,
that winds around the front side of V Llaima to Cherquenco, is “transitable”.

I am inclined to try it, make things interesting at least on this cold rainy day.

[gnarbro365]

Portillo picked up 4cm... story of the season.



It’s easy to get sucked into the negative. A super low tide season. But even with just 4cm more than yesterday, this place is spectacular. A little perspective is needed.

[byates1]

casey e always legit,