Seattle is dying

[fatnslow]

Boeing leaving WA? Do you know how many work here?
How does this fit your narrative? Seattle added 7 cranes during the pandemic to once again top the crane index - leading commercial construction development in US.
https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/...-the-lead.html

Maybe you have to drink the coolaid since you're in the industry but the fear of losing high amount of commercial tenancy is very real for downtown Seattle. If Amazon/Microsoft/Google says 10% of it's downtown work force can be WFH after the pandemic it'll have a huge effect on Seattle commercial real estate. Also couple the fact that most Boeing new manufacturing sited will go to non union states in the future is not a good thing for Seattle metro.

[The AD]

Also couple the fact that most Boeing new manufacturing sited will go to non union states in the future is not a good thing for Seattle metro.

I wouldn't say this is a given. With the 787 leaving the Everett site next year and 747 production ending in the next couple years, there's going to be lots of space available in the world's largest building. Seems like that makes for a very compelling case to move existing production (737?) or any future programs to utilize all that space. Boeing has been reducing their Renton footprint for a long time so it wouldn't surprise me if they decided to shutdown the Renton site and move 737 production to Everett.

[dan_pdx]

PDX doing a similar thing in a ballot proposal disguised as "Diverting MJ Taxes to substance abuse centers". On the surface sounds great and decriminalizes personal small usage amounts of certain drugs....thats on the ballot. However you have to read the booklet to find out those certain drugs are: heroin, cocaine, LSD, oxycodone and some other drugs.

Just passing out some info.

Oh yeah, I wrestled with that one. I'm all for more addiction treatment, but this takes away money from schools and failed my needle test. The needle test is "will there be more needles on the street?"

[Buster Highmen]

I kind of think we're about to start another cycle of urban decay like what we saw in the 70s, from which it will take a long time to recover.

Portland in the 70s was awesome; that was when it was fun and affordable without as many self absorbed hipsters.

[CascadeLuke]

Maybe you have to drink the coolaid since you're in the industry but the fear of losing high amount of commercial tenancy is very real for downtown Seattle. If Amazon/Microsoft/Google says 10% of it's downtown work force can be WFH after the pandemic it'll have a huge effect on Seattle commercial real estate. Also couple the fact that most Boeing new manufacturing sited will go to non union states in the future is not a good thing for Seattle metro.

I don’t deny that commercial real estate will be affected world wide. Never said different. I do contend that Seattle will be back in balance in time and big Corp is not as knee jerk. The whole “who’s going to turn the lights of for Seattle” narrative is very present in all local comment sections of anything remotely topical. You go and look who these commentators are and they’re from 2,000 miles away trying to tell us how Seattle’s shit and who’d live there. I’m speaking to that. So false.

[dan_pdx]

I can't say I hung out much in the 70s, other than in my playpen, but yeah, there was a lot to love in the 80s and 90s. That's part of the cycle, right? Everyone moves to the suburbs (or Missoula), the core succumbs to urban blight, then the creatives and ethnic restaurants move in, then art galleries, finally the yuppies come back. The last pass through the cycle took Portland like 40 years, so my decision making has to take my age and expected lifespan into account.

[Garbowski]

Rents are down bigly, but same story in most expensive markets.

https://www.seattlepi.com/realestate...vid-210364.php

[Percy Rideout]

Carpetbagging on this thread to say that Portland is kind of dying too. Someone was stabbed to death while they slept in their apartment a few days ago. I kind of think we're about to start another cycle of urban decay like what we saw in the 70s, from which it will take a long time to recover.

Interesting point, and here to ask the old heads who experienced it, and the sociologists who study it: What got the US cities out of that urban decay experienced in the 70's?

[frorider]

Holy shit don’t open that can of worms. Hudge range of theories, all shown to ‘correlate’ to some degree.

[DaveTV]

[Bobcat Sig]

Carpetbagging on this thread to say that Portland is kind of dying too. Someone was stabbed to death while they slept in their apartment a few days ago. I kind of think we're about to start another cycle of urban decay like what we saw in the 70s, from which it will take a long time to recover.

We are about to start? Please; we are already there. Just as soon as this boom over-builds on inventory and rental rates drop, then things will really slide. Much of the blight due to the homeless has been here for years.

Portland in the 70s was awesome; that was when it was fun and affordable without as many self absorbed hipsters.

#oldPortland #membaberries

[wooley12]

Take your $100k+ retirement and don't let the door hit your ass on the way out. I know one of them.

Another cop I spoke with said the new recruits have learned some progressive policing ways of thinking at the academy.

[Dromond]

Seems the reality of the mythical Seattle exodus is somewhat mixed. Fewer people want to live in an apartment in Seattle during a pandemic (shocker) and there is more interest in small towns and suburbs - although many of those places were already growing before COVID. I do know of one family that moved - but it was from Redmond to Gig Harbor so suburb to smaller town I guess.

https://www.seattlemet.com/home-and-...l-estate-homes

[The AD]

Seems the reality of the mythical Seattle exodus is somewhat mixed. Fewer people want to live in an apartment in Seattle during a pandemic (shocker) and there is more interest in small towns and suburbs - although many of those places were already growing before COVID.

And a lot of these people are likely to regret that decision if/when they have to go back to their offices downtown.

[This End Up]

With the 787 leaving the Everett site next year and 747 production ending in the next couple years, there's going to be lots of space available in the world's largest building.

It could be converted to the worlds largest "grow op".

[The AD]

It could be converted to the worlds largest "grow op".

Might not be a bad idea at this point...

[Art Shirk]

And a lot of these people are likely to regret that decision if/when they have to go back to their offices downtown.

I'm moving to Vashon and will be able to get back into downtown quicker on the commuter ferry than driving around due to the bridge closure from West Seattle. More room for the kids to run around too, and fewer covidiots out there,

[abraham]

Nice. That's kinda crazy that it's reasonable compared to West Seattle.

You know about the vaccination rates there, right?

[BmillsSkier]

I'm moving to Vashon and will be able to get back into downtown quicker on the commuter ferry than driving around due to the bridge closure from West Seattle. More room for the kids to run around too, and fewer covidiots out there,

Will you be disclosing the poo river or is that caveat emptor?

[Bobcat Sig]

Nice. That's kinda crazy that it's reasonable compared to West Seattle.

You know about the vaccination rates there, right?

Who knew Vashon Island was full of anti-vaxxers?

[nickwm21]

Today I talked to an acquaintance who’s son, a Seattle PD detective was basically demoted put back in a squad car because (unsurprisingly) all the entry level cops are quitting. So he too quit the force and moved to Houston for a PI gig.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Art Shirk]

Nice. That's kinda crazy that it's reasonable compared to West Seattle.

You know about the vaccination rates there, right?

I heard a few things. It's a weird mix of folks out there. Not too many trumpers, but some weird pockets of hippy commandos and anti-vaxxers. There are more BLM signs on the island than black people also.

Will you be disclosing the poo river or is that caveat emptor?

Poo river was the prior place, but this one had its own sewer issues. I'm keeping the West Seattle house anyway. Going to really test out the theories on the rental market in West Seattle soon.

[Dromond]

I'm moving to Vashon and will be able to get back into downtown quicker on the commuter ferry than driving around due to the bridge closure from West Seattle. More room for the kids to run around too, and fewer covidiots out there,

Edit: everyone beat me to the anti-vaccer comment

[dan_pdx]

Yup, we're on the same page. Shocked to see that Bernie just endorsed Chloe and Iannarone, makes me wonder if he did his due diligence.

[Art Shirk]

Mingus Mapps.

I may have found my next screen name