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Thread: Jones Pass Fatality
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04-05-2019, 11:12 AM #201
Yeah people have balls on s diamond. There is a pretty safe route up the lookers right side but I see people skinning straight up ptarmigan sometimes. Last big skier triggered slide was 2016 I think.
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04-05-2019, 11:38 AM #202Registered User
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I think the fact that guides from PA were also out recreationally touring in the area the day of the slide further underscores the risk of familiarity. It makes me wonder whether, if the front range forecast had been classified extreme, they would have heeded the warnings. I think many experienced ski tourers think they can manage certain avy terrain at high danger. To me though, this didnt seem close to typical high danger. It makes me think a lot about the granularity of the forecast and the margins that exist between elevations and zones.
I've often thought that the NTL forecast was just an uncertainty buffer with elevation. By itself, the NTL forecast is nearly meaningless, but to me, I see Low-Low-Mod as substantively different than Low-Mod-Mod.
Likewise, with zones. The front range zone has a huge range of latitude. The vail-summit (V-S) zone has a huge range of longitude. On average, the Front Range probably warranted the lower rating that day vs V-S, but in the vicinity of Berthoud/Jones, all signs were pointing towards extreme, and the language in the forecast discussion was explicit. From the aftermath, Summit was ground zero, but Berth/Jones seemed to have higher frequency of activity than Vail. I suppose my point is to factor in adjacent zones when reading the forecast. If skiing southern tenmile, read Sawatch. Northeastern aspen, read vail, etc.
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04-05-2019, 12:31 PM #203
Not to mention they basically got slapped in the face with a red flag when a natural slide burred the cat road that morning forcing them to change plans. Instead of avoiding all avy terrain, they dropped into a zone with significant overhead exposure.
As I stated in a previous post, anyone in the US can call themselves a "guide". So my question is what kind of actually accreditation did these "guides" actually have? Note, the report said they did a safety briefing in the cat on the way up. Did they actually take the time to do proper rescue training ON SNOW with the clients that day?
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04-05-2019, 12:39 PM #204
familiarity I guess they are used to seeing 8 ft of fresh avie debris on their cat track when they are operating. What difference does the forecast make? If you see fresh debris it is pretty clear sign that avalanches are certain. Gunder posted while I was typing my exact thoughts.
off your knees Louie
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04-05-2019, 12:47 PM #205
Expert halo, too
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04-05-2019, 03:19 PM #206Registered User
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The general school of thought that I've always subscribed to is to use obs to elevate the real-time risk rating beyond the assumed level at the planning stage (and hence modify plan to be more conservative). The difference between high (with possibility for full/historic path slides) and extreme is basically an issue of spatial frequency, which can't really be assessed in the small sample of a particular tour. I'm guessing if the mindset at the onset was that "we are going cat skiing with exposure to avalanche terrain at high danger", the observed slide may not have massively changed the view point. I still just have a hard time with the notion of stepping out the door on that day to go ski in that environment - even more so with clients.
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04-05-2019, 03:35 PM #207Registered User
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There is very little to unpack in this one. They shoulda stayed home. Yes, I make mistakes like everyone else while skiing. I'm pretty good at staying safe at home. Sometimes it's OK to take a day off when avie conditions are at a high never seen before. Small mistakes turn into death on days like these. Just stay home, experts make mistakes too. Powder skiing sucks when you are terrified of dying.
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04-05-2019, 10:57 PM #208
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04-05-2019, 11:42 PM #209
Wow. I've said it before, and now even, reading the final report, I physically puked and caught it in my mouth, while crying.
My brain blowing up. R4 D3.5. While in the field I always caution on Star Wars (R2D2) and how that is the end of the universe.
There was so much going on here. I will just swallow this report and pay homage to a good man.
Again, om, breathe. Fuck. That was a shitty day.
BTW, if any of you haven't gotten the survey e-mail in your daily, take it.
https://avbulletin.avalancheresearch.ca/
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04-06-2019, 07:02 AM #210Registered User
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Just read the report. The crew with him were super dialed in the rescue attempt, props to them. On the other hand, I'm glad they didn't get a bunch of their clients killed too. Timing of the avie could have been worse. I mean no disrespect to them or the deceased, I'm just sick of this patty-cake we play after these avalanches about 'we are all human' and 'we all make mistakes'. Can we just say sometimes powder skiing is not worth it? Can we say it's fine to stay home some days? Can we say maybe you have a serious addiction if you think you can beat the odds?
It's like a historian breaking down the battle of the bulge, trying to figure out why soldiers died. The mini-details may be morbidly interesting, just like an avie report, but the bottom line it's because they went to war. Don't go to war, it sucks.
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04-06-2019, 09:04 AM #211Registered User
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Jones Pass Fatality
Nevermind
Last edited by kathleenturneroverdrive; 04-06-2019 at 10:39 AM.
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04-06-2019, 12:48 PM #212
I finally just read the report.
Fuck.
The guides that were there must be reeling with guilt over this and that sucks. We all make mistakes so I will leave it at that.dirtbag, not a dentist
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04-06-2019, 04:41 PM #213
No, that's what your pass is for.
Seriously though, given all that was going on, I remain blown away that this group was out there, that they stayed out there after the cat road was covered with debris, that a group of snowboarders was out there too, and another group was down in the valley. All other decisions were secondary to the original decision to go out there at all.
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04-06-2019, 04:45 PM #214
There is a question in the survey posted above which asks you for each level of avalanche hazard identified in a report, how that affects your decision. One of the options is that the hazard designation alone, without any other data would dictate that you flat out stay out of the backcountry. There is a point at which I employ that decision making.
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04-06-2019, 04:50 PM #215Registered User
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I basically make 90% of my go/nogo decision before I get off the couch in the morning. I'm not going out trying to justify a line, or talk myself out of anything. Plenty of other fine options, and I have a renewed love of skiing inbounds. I'm also not going out on considerable or high days just to meadowskip on a golf course. I'd much rather bang chopped up inbounds steeps than deal with that. My BC risk tolerance has waned in the last few years after seeing the results of bad decisions play out too many times over the years.
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04-06-2019, 05:23 PM #216
Yep. I hate hate hate "Let's just go out and see what we see." Invariably this leads to "Look, rad skiing!". Rad skiing leads to justifications: It isn't as steep as it looks, this aspect is a little different than that one that had a fresh slide, I've never seen this slope slide, I heard someone skied this last week, there are tracks in it, etc. Rad skiing was a stupid, horrible, absolute no-go choice from the couch. In the field, it looks good and it's so easy to start justifying.
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04-06-2019, 05:27 PM #217
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04-06-2019, 06:11 PM #218
Lots of great points raised about the report. But not much comment on the fact that very soon (<24hrs) after an avalanche fatality of one of their guides, Powder Addition used social media to blame another party for triggering the slide from above them with little to no confirmation that was the case, and now CAIC's report determines it was very likely a cornice drop and not that party. Not sure what to think of that kinda baseless finger-pointing less than 24 hours after one of their guides was killed ...especially when you learn more details of the events leading up to the avalanche (such as a slide taking out their cat road). I guess this is just the reality of our social media world, it seems questionable to say the least.
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04-06-2019, 07:04 PM #219
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04-06-2019, 07:19 PM #220
Really? I love the "Let's go take a look and see" much more than having a dead set objective. I think people with objectives tend to want to see green flags more so.
We don't have a forecast down here so we have to make our own decisions based on our season long observations. I'm more than happy to back off when I don't like the looks of things.dirtbag, not a dentist
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04-06-2019, 07:29 PM #221
yeah same. a lot of confirmation bias etc seems to melt away when you go out with a “let’s see” attitude vs a “this is the goal” attitude. I am sure it depends a lot on personality and group dynamics but for me and the type of folks I tour with this works great.
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04-06-2019, 08:06 PM #222
Whe conditions are a bit tricky, I prefer the approach of, here’s several options. Lets pick the one that makes the most sense. I try to pick locations that have various options to dial down as necessary as opposed to either ‘lets see’ or ‘this is our objective’. Again, when conditions are tricky. Objectives have a time and a place. A more structured approach to ‘lets see’ works best for the way I function out there.
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04-06-2019, 10:25 PM #223
That is how I view it.
Adrenelated's basic argument that condemning others practices is a way of forgiving your own decisions or assuming you are above such mistakes and thus creating your own righteous halo, is valid and important.
But these decisions were so egregious. It seems very lucky only one life was lost.you know there ain't no devil,
there's just God when he's drunk---- Tom Waits
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04-06-2019, 10:54 PM #224
I've never been sure, but is PA still operating, were they on hold during this period or have they continued normal operations? And March 7, what were those 12 ?!! clients thinking? It's clear PA should not have taken them but why were they even going, did they think they were bagging a rhino, climbing everest, or some similar once in a life conquest mindset?
Last edited by daviski; 04-07-2019 at 08:02 AM.
you know there ain't no devil,
there's just God when he's drunk---- Tom Waits
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04-07-2019, 09:44 AM #225
The sad irony of this tribute quote from the deceased:
"let it go. Look forward to skiing groomers in the Colorado sunshine and most importantly mentally itemize other possible activities (drive to road closures and hike/snowshoe around the glory, take in some hot springs, spa, etc...)...
Bottom line is your vacation can no longer be about anticipating skiing, it must be about enjoying the mountains with your family. That will serve you well in the long run. ENJOY!!!"
So frustrating! Ugh....so fucking sad.
Also (and not to be glib whatsoever, but) the occurrences of addiction and Jones in this situation read like bad hollywood writing. Obviously it doesn't mean anything, it just sticks out...if this were fiction and I were editing I'd say it's a bit over the top.
I hope somehow these days prove to be a high tide in the "pow is everything", "backcountry is everything" movement in skiing....
I hope someday we look back on this as where we decided, as a culture, that we're going to take a chill day when it gets sketchy like this. I know it seems judgemental, but FFS....the conventional wisdom has shit on inbounds skiing for 10 or 15 years now...maybe it's enough already. There's a time and place for everything.
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