MLB Thread 2019

[Supermoon]

What would prevent you then from applying that statement to any other counting stat on a player? If anything, WAR is much less granular as it takes into account park effects, defense, position, baserunning, etc.

I think you're exactly wrong on this.

ETA:

Hicks locked up for 7/70, sweet.

I think what I’m trying to say is that they built the metric to fit that line, not the other way around. So of course it’s going to return the values you expect. That doesn’t mean it’s accurate when you break it down to the player level. Historical WAR is nothing but a definition of the stat in this sense because it was used to create the stat in the first place.

It’s the same with QB ratings in football.

Not that they don’t tell you something, it’s just the stat is inherently flawed.

[Viva]

Apparently, Los Doyers are discussing a five (5) year deal with Bryce Harper. I've mixed feelings about signing him to any deal, given that he's a diva and brings along a questionable glove. Still, a Hell of a lot better than giving that clown a ten (10) year deal.

[iceman]

So just like Iceman?

boom

[ex-powderbroker]

I think what I’m trying to say is that they built the metric to fit that line, not the other way around. So of course it’s going to return the values you expect. That doesn’t mean it’s accurate when you break it down to the player level. Historical WAR is nothing but a definition of the stat in this sense because it was used to create the stat in the first place.

It’s the same with QB ratings in football.

Not that they don’t tell you something, it’s just the stat is inherently flawed.

So you're saying that if a player with a good season on a particular team moved to a worse team the stat holds less value or that the players season was worth less, or both?

[Supermoon]

So you're saying that if a player with a good season on a particular team moved to a worse team the stat holds less value or that the players season was worth less, or both?

I’m saying trying to make one fake stat that encompasses all the other stats is silly.

In other news: the Dodgers met with Harper today, here’s the Brinks truck that showed up at the stadium right after

[Woodsy]

If we can get Harper for 3 - 5 its hard to argue with

I agree that he thought he was a star in DC and MAY lose his FKN mind in LA, but right now all I care about is getting a ring while Kershaw is still pitching and Vin and Tommy are alive. Harper makes us better RIGHT now.

All the rest is superfluous

[ex-powderbroker]

i hope he talks them into more years and more dollars. enjoy

[irul&ublo]

Yankees and Cashman pulled off a great deal for Hicks. 4.7 WAR player for 10 mm a year. 35 at end of contract, so should be in good zone for at least 5 of the 7 years. Leaves money available for Judge and Torres down the line

[Woodsy]

Yankees and Cashman pulled off a great deal for Hicks. 4.7 WAR player

fer fucks sake Irul dont start the WAR debate again...

[Danno]

Yankees and Cashman pulled off a great deal for Hicks. 4.7 WAR player for 10 mm a year. 35 at end of contract, so should be in good zone for at least 5 of the 7 years. Leaves money available for Judge and Torres down the line

It is a good deal for both of them. And if he continues to be that 4.7 WAR player then a smoking deal for the Yanks. But this is also a guy who for 4 seasons and almost 1300 plate appearances accumulated 2 WAR, ie barely above replacement level. Which is why I think it was a good deal for him, to lock up some guaranteed coin. And of course, given this is the Yankees, that contract won't ever be an albatross for them even if it doesn't pan out, like it might be for some teams.

[irul&ublo]

It is a good deal for both of them. And if he continues to be that 4.7 WAR player then a smoking deal for the Yanks. But this is also a guy who for 4 seasons and almost 1300 plate appearances accumulated 2 WAR, ie barely above replacement level. Which is why I think it was a good deal for him, to lock up some guaranteed coin. And of course, given this is the Yankees, that contract won't ever be an albatross for them even if it doesn't pan out, like it might be for some teams.

Switch hitter, good fielder and very strong arm. Not a lot of CF available, and decent ones are making more coin. Gardner cant play it anymore, and Judge, Stanton and Frazier are not CFs, at least not regularly. Yankees have a really good young prospect, Florial, but he's really only a AA level now.

[Sirshredalot]

Switch hitter, good fielder and very strong arm. Not a lot of CF available, and decent ones are making more coin. Gardner cant play it anymore, and Judge, Stanton and Frazier are not CFs, at least not regularly. Yankees have a really good young prospect, Florial, but he's really only a AA level now.

All good points. If I were the Yanks, I would've wanted fewer years in case he turns back into a pumpkin. But as pointed out above, they've got the money to burn if it doesn't point out.

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[ex-powderbroker]

another good year and he may have been looking at 4/70 at free agency. he gets paid and security, yanks keep the annual value down if he’s a bust and need to move him or the cap is getting close. i really like the deal and hope they can buy out judge’s last couple of years before free agency too.

[Supermoon]

Judge is going to make Machado’s contract look like a minor league deal

12 years for $450 mil. Calling it now.

[ex-powderbroker]

i bet they buy him out at 8/150 next year. he’s no mookie!

eta: he came up to the bigs a couple years too late and cost himself some dough, which is a nice incentive to stay in ny and pick up endorsements.

[I've seen black diamonds!]

Nolan Arenado is the best comparison for Judge. He'll get 8/280-300. I think Mookie wants to get paid. He will be the one to break the $400 million barrier.

[Danno]

Judge is going to make Machado’s contract look like a minor league deal

12 years for $450 mil. Calling it now.

Nope. He's not even eligible for salary arbitration till after this year, and he's what, 26? Can't recall if it's 3 or 4 years of arbitration, I think 4. SO he's not a FA until he's 30. The reason Machado (and Harper) are so unique is because they made the bigs when they were really young, so hit free agency at 26. Judge may get a hudge contract by AAV, but he won't get a 12 or even 10 year contract.

[Danno]

Mookie is also 26, and becomes a FA 2 years from now. Slightly more likely he gets the largest, but still unlikely.

[ex-powderbroker]

trout has been so good for so long that it’s hard to believe he’s only entering his age 27 season. he hits the market after 2020 and if anyone is set to shatter a contract record it’s that guy.

all of this speculation includes the various disclaimers about them staying healthy but there is no one i’d rather have on my squad even at age 30.

[Supermoon]

Nope. He's not even eligible for salary arbitration till after this year, and he's what, 26? Can't recall if it's 3 or 4 years of arbitration, I think 4. SO he's not a FA until he's 30. The reason Machado (and Harper) are so unique is because they made the bigs when they were really young, so hit free agency at 26. Judge may get a hudge contract by AAV, but he won't get a 12 or even 10 year contract.

I didn’t know he had four years or arbitration still. I think you’re right

[Woodsy]

trout has been so good for so long that it’s hard to believe he’s only entering his age 27 season. he hits the market after 2020 and if anyone is set to shatter a contract record it’s that guy.
.

This

He will go into the HOF in a Dodger hat

[MiddleOfNight]

Nolan Arenado is the best comparison for Judge. He'll get 8/280-300. I think Mookie wants to get paid. He will be the one to break the $400 million barrier.

Rox signed Nolan!
8yr/$260mil

Sweet! Love that he plays in CO!

[hawkgt]

Rox signed Nolan!
8yr/$260mil

Sweet! Love that he plays in CO!

I support this message. Fkna

[SkiBall]

Glad Rox locked Nolan up. Will make it a better value when they trade him to the Sox.

[Supermoon]

Harper to the Phillies. 13/330