Results 76 to 100 of 201
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12-17-2018, 07:41 PM #76
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12-17-2018, 07:55 PM #77
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12-17-2018, 08:17 PM #78
8-10 years ago I went up to ski Tuckerman Ravine on a fine sunny spring day. There was a ranger at the base of the bowl talking to everyone who came up the trail, asking if they had avy gear (he tols me about 1 in 10 did) and pointing out that the day's avy bulletin indicated that if you skied the center headwall you were pretty likely to trigger an avy, while other aspects had low danger. Yes, the forecasting is that specific on Mt Washington. And it was correct. I saw a skier and a snowboarder go for separate rides that day while the crowd cheered. Neither was buried, but IIRC one got beat up pretty good. That was the last sunny spring weekend day I skied Tuckerman.
This is an extreme case, unique to a unique place with it's own fucked up culture that contributes to a slew of accidents. But I'm not sure what else the ranger could have done. And I don't think it is a forecasters job to prevent this sort of idiocy. I don't blame them for trying, but it's probably best left to those with expertise at communicating with youngsters on social media.
The issue of experienced BC skiers making bad decisions is a separate one. I would argue that this is something avy bulletins may be effective at reducing if done well. I think stories work well for this. When I'm reminded of a specific case of experienced skiers dying, or having a close call when they made bad decisions, it calls to mind my own decisions making process, the times I've fucked up, and the potential consequences of fucking it up again. No sensationalism needed. And preachiness will make some folks tune out. But stories can call attention to our own potential to fall into heuristic traps in a way that info about persistent weak layers on certain aspects may not. This part of of why The Slide podcast is so damn good. Style matters in story telling, as does a clear sense of who your audience is. Large, hi-res pictures help too.
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12-17-2018, 08:26 PM #79
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12-17-2018, 08:30 PM #80
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12-17-2018, 08:30 PM #81
“The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering a slab avalanche 2 to 4 feet deep, on upper elevation slopes facing northwest through easterly. It's an isolated chance of triggering one of these monsters, but deadly if you do.”
Super duper deadly. I’m tired of the hype that these “avalanche professionals “ put forth every day on the report. Report the facts, not some some fear monger fucking propaganda....
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12-17-2018, 08:32 PM #82
From my perspective I was on a pretty large supported bench and well back from the edge. I had put too much faith in the avy control that am. I fact we all did. In hindsight Whomever ended up placing that sign that am was most likely going for a ride. None of us expected it to fail there given the amount of control work done that am (with minimal results too) and the number of times it had already been skied the last few days.
The combination of basal facets with surface hoar and then a relatively supportive upper snow pack is combination we rarely deal with in the PNW caught us even more off guard then expected and we where already pretty keen to it being a very unique and reactive situation. I’ve never seen anything quite like it before.
Not to mention most of Bakers standard runs are not really conducive to managing a continental snowpack.
I always like to tone it way back anytime I see something unusual with weather or snow. In this case I had toned it way back and chose to give patrol a hand and I still got bitch slapped by Mother Nature.
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12-17-2018, 09:03 PM #83
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12-17-2018, 09:04 PM #84
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12-17-2018, 09:41 PM #85
Does social media overhype avy danger?
Fair enough. I’ve traveled in the interior, Rockies and other ranges enough to have a fair amount of exposure to both types of layers. However not when they are directly on top of each other and have 4-6 feet of good coastal snow on top. That coastal layer is thick enough to give a lot of false confidence. I’ve never seen anything like this.
There is zero doubt in my mind that unless we get a full rain flush someone is going to pay for it. Most likely someone that is quite experienced with dealing with typical coastal issues. A non typical problem becomes very difficult to deal with understand when buried by lots of snow more typical to the region.
In fact another very experienced friend just had a close call at Crystal today.
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12-17-2018, 09:44 PM #86
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12-17-2018, 10:05 PM #87
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12-17-2018, 10:34 PM #88Registered User
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- Mar 2010
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- 878
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12-18-2018, 07:31 AM #89
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12-18-2018, 07:36 AM #90
I dunno. This whole concept of you have to be sensationalist in order to instill caution in people that have some lesser degree of knowledge is fairly conceited and toes the line between ignoring and exacerbating the one of the largest challenges I see in recreation in avalanche terrain.
In order to travel safety you need appropriate equipment, education (knowledge, training and practice) and the ability/desire to make consistently conservative and safe decisions.
Too many people use there education as justification for poor decision making. We are the biggest impediment to our own safety. There is way to much focus on snow science, advance certifications and the like. Make good decisions, don't get in an avalanche.
Now, if we as humans, are shitty at decision making, we need to address that as the problem. Sure, we have study on heuristic traps, FACETS etc. but we love to quickly move past that. I don't think that avalanche forecaster should be tasked with anything other than forecasting. Here is what the CAIC says today:
Summary
You can still trigger a dangerous avalanche on isolated slopes. The most suspect slopes are steeper than 35 degrees and face north and easterly and are open and prone to wind-loading. On these slopes you will find a dangerous combination of widespread weak layers capped by thicker and stiffer slabs. You are most likely to find dangerous conditions in areas that catch and hold snow, such as easterly-facing areas below ridgelines, in concave gullies and terrain features, and on steep rollovers in open meadows. Look for cornices along ridgelines and signs of previously drifted snow behind terrain features to identify the most suspect slopes.
You can reduce your risk by traveling on slopes with a slope angle less than 35 degrees. Safer riding options also include slopes sheltered from the wind, or slopes that face south and west. These slopes received much less recent wind-loading and buried weak layers are not as well pronounced.
So chose you partners wisely and make good conservative decisions.
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12-18-2018, 07:40 AM #91
As I think about all this, I am increasingly appreciative of the CAIC. They remain professional and badass all at the same time. Here is some commentary https://avalanche.state.co.us/foreca...e/front-range/ with a little more advance analysis that manages to be neither preachy or sensationalistic.
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12-18-2018, 08:00 AM #92
Maybe my sarcasm meter is off, but are you kidding me?
This is the picture of a avie level moderate slide with the mentioned problem "possibly big avalanches" in Austria in 2017. One of the guys was found 12 meters deep. Deadly dead, obviously. Klar on this board skied that face regularly, but they decided against it that winter because it was so big. If you trigger something, which is not very likely, it can get big. And it did, eventually.
https://assets-tt-com.nmo.at/images/...f2c93de882.jpg
Sent from my BLA-L29 using TGR Forums mobile appIt's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.
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12-18-2018, 08:00 AM #93
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12-18-2018, 09:02 AM #94Registered User
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- Dec 2010
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- 3,896
I have my Avy 1 Cert, but haven't been able to get out in the BC with experienced people as much as id like to. Are there any classes that focus exclusively or heavily on terrain mgmt and choice instead of the snow science? I could not care less about certs, but id drop a few hundo to have an expert looking over my shoulder telling me my route is shitty before the mountain does.... Problem is, no experienced folks want to be bogged down by a newbie so its tough to hook up with a mentor as you don't want to blow their day b/c you're slow and inexperienced, and they don't want to waste a good day babysitting me.
Right now, i just ski inbounds during storm cycles, and meadow skip, or ski minigolf during winter tours once the snowpack is healed up. Im over the top cautious because i lack the experience to feel comfortable shaving my margins past super-super conservative.
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12-18-2018, 09:07 AM #95
^^^I don't know of any terrain management classes. I'm not up on all the current curriculum so I can't speak to wear it should/could be taught.
Honestly, the whole finding mentors thing is very hard and it is on you. It comes up all the time when people admit to having trouble finding a good group to tour with.
I think your situation is very common. One thing I know has worked is to go on some type of guides trip with your friends and ask if you could work on these things.
I do think that there are a tremendous amount of travel skills that can be learned outside of a professional setting.
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12-18-2018, 09:23 AM #96
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12-18-2018, 09:24 AM #97Registered User
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- Jan 2014
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- Gaperville, CO
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This isn't my experience. Multiple times this year I've gone out with people much more experienced then me (i.e. SAR guy with 800+ days of bc touring, an avy 2 former patroller with lots of bc experience) based on simple internet-based requests. But it is putting in leg work on various platforms to find these people, being flexible on their schedules, etc. The reality is though there are more newbies than experienced people -- which means you've got to excell at are where other newbies fail.
The things that they seem to care about aren't whether you're an expert in terrain selection or have an AVY2, its stuff you do without that. Show up on time, with skins on, transition fast, keep up a good pace, ask questions, study a CalTopo of the area, be able to recite (or have written down) the avy forecast for the day, be realistic about your fitness (both pace and total ability to climb), don't bitch about the snow, the weather, the skintrack or the skiing.
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12-18-2018, 09:29 AM #98
In response to californiagrown:
Hire a guide for a day and tell him/her what you want help with? Share cost with friends?
Also do lot of homework. Learn how to determine slope angle on a topo. Use slope angle overlay tools to look at familiar ski zones to start developing an intuitive sense of slope angle.
When you're out touring measure slope angle like a maniac. Use hand held tools to measure small features and a surveying-type app like Dioptra to measure large slopes. After a while you can judge slope angle within a few degrees by looking. Go nuts with a compass too and note how small terrain features can create large changes in aspect.
Don't forget that a 38 degree slope above you can be just as deadly as one below you. Run outs should scare you, especially in busy areas. Convex rollovers should scare the shit out of you.
Then think about consequences. Even when slides are unlikely, stay away from slopes where a massive slide is possible, as well as funnel-shaped slopes where a small slide could bury you deep.Last edited by I've seen black diamonds!; 12-18-2018 at 12:35 PM.
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12-18-2018, 09:38 AM #99
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12-18-2018, 09:44 AM #100
Maybe us selfish fucks should consider mentoring part of our responsibility to the sport instead of pointing to the other guy? I think professional avalanche education is important but I do not think of it as comprehensive training for backcountry skiing.
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