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  1. #76
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    And I'd just like to say, I'm not trying to be a dick, but it really does seem like you're bringing your own ego into your hate of the UAC.

    Can I see differences in Drew's forecasts vs Trent's? Of course, but in both of them, the data is there, it's easy to ignore the ego of the forecaster and get what you need. But it almost feels like you're in some kind of weird competition thing with some of those guys? Maybe it's from spending too much time in the sheep pen with all of those personalities?

    Again, I'm not trying to throw stones at you, but you bring this up every chance you get.

  2. #77
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    Does social media overhype avy danger?

    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post

    I realize its a HUUUGE liability issue and would never happen, but i think it would be cool if the avalanche centers recommended a "tour of the day", or a "bad idea tour of the day" based on snow/weather conditions and the terrain involved. Maybe a list of popular tours that are bad ideas that day would help keep folks out of trouble.
    Around here the forecast blog periodically gives a “what’s the worst thing you could get up to today” kinda thing...

    Not that it does any good... during a special spring avy warning they specifically talk about dropping huge cornices with your buddies being directly underneath... a pair of non skiing snow bikers we were with dropped in on us, moments before we we to summit on skins ... my internal rage was 50% avy, 50% you snaked my line... el here snapped a sick picture of them dropping almost directly above us ... so I guess it was worth it.
    "Its not the arrow, its the Indian" - M.Pinto

  3. #78
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    Better to give people too much data than not enough. Hype the danger, if it saves some lives it is worth it. It may keep some idiots out of the mountains, so what, the locals know what is up anyways.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by snoqpass View Post
    He’s done some really cool stuff in the mountains but the Mt Si thing was nothing more than a publicity stunt
    Concur 100%
    Additionally, they were not the first to ski it.
    Alpental Indigenous
    Member PNWFSC

  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by snoqpass View Post
    Reminds me of a local “guide” an his buddy’s that skied a lower elevation peak around here that rarely gets enough snow to ski. A couple days after a trip report on TAY there’s an article in the local paper about their rare descent of said peak, yes they called the paper to do an article on them which I think it’s more that guides seem to need to publish everything the validate their careers
    that the same one Frank did a day earlier and just, did it?
    .

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by flowing alpy View Post
    that the same one Frank did a day earlier and just, did it?
    Correct
    Alpental Indigenous
    Member PNWFSC

  7. #82
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    8-10 years ago I went up to ski Tuckerman Ravine on a fine sunny spring day. There was a ranger at the base of the bowl talking to everyone who came up the trail, asking if they had avy gear (he tols me about 1 in 10 did) and pointing out that the day's avy bulletin indicated that if you skied the center headwall you were pretty likely to trigger an avy, while other aspects had low danger. Yes, the forecasting is that specific on Mt Washington. And it was correct. I saw a skier and a snowboarder go for separate rides that day while the crowd cheered. Neither was buried, but IIRC one got beat up pretty good. That was the last sunny spring weekend day I skied Tuckerman.

    This is an extreme case, unique to a unique place with it's own fucked up culture that contributes to a slew of accidents. But I'm not sure what else the ranger could have done. And I don't think it is a forecasters job to prevent this sort of idiocy. I don't blame them for trying, but it's probably best left to those with expertise at communicating with youngsters on social media.

    The issue of experienced BC skiers making bad decisions is a separate one. I would argue that this is something avy bulletins may be effective at reducing if done well. I think stories work well for this. When I'm reminded of a specific case of experienced skiers dying, or having a close call when they made bad decisions, it calls to mind my own decisions making process, the times I've fucked up, and the potential consequences of fucking it up again. No sensationalism needed. And preachiness will make some folks tune out. But stories can call attention to our own potential to fall into heuristic traps in a way that info about persistent weak layers on certain aspects may not. This part of of why The Slide podcast is so damn good. Style matters in story telling, as does a clear sense of who your audience is. Large, hi-res pictures help too.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by I've seen black diamonds! View Post
    8-10 years ago I went up to ski Tuckerman Ravine on a fine sunny spring day. There was a ranger at the base of the bowl talking to everyone who came up the trail, asking if they had avy gear (he tols me about 1 in 10 did) and pointing out that the day's avy bulletin indicated that if you skied the center headwall you were pretty likely to trigger an avy, while other aspects had low danger. Yes, the forecasting is that specific on Mt Washington. And it was correct. I saw a skier and a snowboarder go for separate rides that day while the crowd cheered. Neither was buried, but IIRC one got beat up pretty good. That was the last sunny spring weekend day I skied Tuckerman.

    This is an extreme case, unique to a unique place with it's own fucked up culture that contributes to a slew of accidents. But I'm not sure what else the ranger could have done. And I don't think it is a forecasters job to prevent this sort of idiocy. I don't blame them for trying, but it's probably best left to those with expertise at communicating with youngsters on social media.

    The issue of experienced BC skiers making bad decisions is a separate one. I would argue that this is something avy bulletins may be effective at reducing if done well. I think stories work well for this. When I'm reminded of a specific case of experienced skiers dying, or having a close call when they made bad decisions, it calls to mind my own decisions making process, the times I've fucked up, and the potential consequences of fucking it up again. No sensationalism needed. And preachiness will make some folks tune out. But stories can call attention to our own potential to fall into heuristic traps in a way that info about persistent weak layers on certain aspects may not. This part of of why The Slide podcast is so damn good. Style matters in story telling, as does a clear sense of who your audience is. Large, hi-res pictures help too.
    Well said and written ISBD, have seen the chopper land in the bowl, kinda ruins the day! Hope u and ur family are well!,, little ones growing up fast.
    always forward but never straight

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnbiker/boarder View Post
    Hope u and ur family are well!,, little ones growing up fast.
    You too! Let me know if you're ever in CO. Would be great to get some turns in.

  10. #85
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    “The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering a slab avalanche 2 to 4 feet deep, on upper elevation slopes facing northwest through easterly. It's an isolated chance of triggering one of these monsters, but deadly if you do.”

    Super duper deadly. I’m tired of the hype that these “avalanche professionals “ put forth every day on the report. Report the facts, not some some fear monger fucking propaganda....

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster Highmen View Post

    Now, about you standing on that rollover Gunder….

    ;-)

    .
    From my perspective I was on a pretty large supported bench and well back from the edge. I had put too much faith in the avy control that am. I fact we all did. In hindsight Whomever ended up placing that sign that am was most likely going for a ride. None of us expected it to fail there given the amount of control work done that am (with minimal results too) and the number of times it had already been skied the last few days.

    The combination of basal facets with surface hoar and then a relatively supportive upper snow pack is combination we rarely deal with in the PNW caught us even more off guard then expected and we where already pretty keen to it being a very unique and reactive situation. I’ve never seen anything quite like it before.

    Not to mention most of Bakers standard runs are not really conducive to managing a continental snowpack.

    I always like to tone it way back anytime I see something unusual with weather or snow. In this case I had toned it way back and chose to give patrol a hand and I still got bitch slapped by Mother Nature.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunder View Post
    The combination of basal facets with surface hoar and then a relatively supportive upper snow pack is combination we rarely deal with in the PNW caught us even more off guard then expected and we where already pretty keen to it being a very unique and reactive situation. I’ve never seen anything quite like it before.
    Heh.

    I feel like that's pretty much the standard snowpack baseline anywhere east of the Koots.
    Quote Originally Posted by XXX-er View Post
    the situation strikes me as WAY too much drama at this point

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mofro261 View Post
    I try to avoid the heuristic dangers of social media.

    Turn on
    Tune out
    Drop in
    https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/02...g?v=1476453229

  14. #89
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    Does social media overhype avy danger?

    Quote Originally Posted by reckless toboggan View Post
    Heh.

    I feel like that's pretty much the standard snowpack baseline anywhere east of the Koots.
    Fair enough. I’ve traveled in the interior, Rockies and other ranges enough to have a fair amount of exposure to both types of layers. However not when they are directly on top of each other and have 4-6 feet of good coastal snow on top. That coastal layer is thick enough to give a lot of false confidence. I’ve never seen anything like this.

    There is zero doubt in my mind that unless we get a full rain flush someone is going to pay for it. Most likely someone that is quite experienced with dealing with typical coastal issues. A non typical problem becomes very difficult to deal with understand when buried by lots of snow more typical to the region.

    In fact another very experienced friend just had a close call at Crystal today.

  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gunder View Post
    Fair enough. I’ve traveled in the interior, Rockies and other ranges to have a fair amount of exposure to both types of layers. Just not when they are directly on top of each other and 4-6 feet of good coastal snow on top. That coastal layer is thick enough to give a lot of false confidence.

    There is zero doubt in my mind that unless we get a full rain flush someone is going to pay for it. Most likely someone that is quite experienced with dealing with typical coastal issues. A non typical problem becomes very difficult to deal with understand when buried by lots of snow more typical to the region.

    In fact another very experienced friend just had a close call at Crystal today.
    Not making any judgements or anything. Just seemed like an appropriate snide remark per TGR SOP.
    Quote Originally Posted by XXX-er View Post
    the situation strikes me as WAY too much drama at this point

  16. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by reckless toboggan View Post
    Not making any judgements or anything. Just seemed like an appropriate snide remark per TGR SOP.
    Wouldn’t be the TGR we live without it. Gotta keep it in character!!!

  17. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster Highmen View Post
    QFT.
    In my mealy little mind, terrain selection is fundamental, primary and for the most part trumps everything else.
    ^^ terrain management is key. been fortunate enough to spend some time with wra. couldn't pay enough for those kinda classes.
    Last edited by getoutside; 12-17-2018 at 11:50 PM.

  18. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmedslc View Post
    “The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering a slab avalanche 2 to 4 feet deep, on upper elevation slopes facing northwest through easterly. It's an isolated chance of triggering one of these monsters, but deadly if you do.”

    Super duper deadly. I’m tired of the hype that these “avalanche professionals “ put forth every day on the report. Report the facts, not some some fear monger fucking propaganda....
    Is that quote an example hyped propaganda fear mongering?

    If so, we have starkly different definitions of fear mongering and propaganda
    "Its not the arrow, its the Indian" - M.Pinto

  19. #94
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    I dunno. This whole concept of you have to be sensationalist in order to instill caution in people that have some lesser degree of knowledge is fairly conceited and toes the line between ignoring and exacerbating the one of the largest challenges I see in recreation in avalanche terrain.

    In order to travel safety you need appropriate equipment, education (knowledge, training and practice) and the ability/desire to make consistently conservative and safe decisions.

    Too many people use there education as justification for poor decision making. We are the biggest impediment to our own safety. There is way to much focus on snow science, advance certifications and the like. Make good decisions, don't get in an avalanche.

    Now, if we as humans, are shitty at decision making, we need to address that as the problem. Sure, we have study on heuristic traps, FACETS etc. but we love to quickly move past that. I don't think that avalanche forecaster should be tasked with anything other than forecasting. Here is what the CAIC says today:

    Summary
    You can still trigger a dangerous avalanche on isolated slopes. The most suspect slopes are steeper than 35 degrees and face north and easterly and are open and prone to wind-loading. On these slopes you will find a dangerous combination of widespread weak layers capped by thicker and stiffer slabs. You are most likely to find dangerous conditions in areas that catch and hold snow, such as easterly-facing areas below ridgelines, in concave gullies and terrain features, and on steep rollovers in open meadows. Look for cornices along ridgelines and signs of previously drifted snow behind terrain features to identify the most suspect slopes.

    You can reduce your risk by traveling on slopes with a slope angle less than 35 degrees. Safer riding options also include slopes sheltered from the wind, or slopes that face south and west. These slopes received much less recent wind-loading and buried weak layers are not as well pronounced.
    That really ain't advanced shit and I argue that someone that has either taken a basic avalanche awareness class or has some good mentors can travel safety with that forecast, a compass, an inclinometer, appropriate equipment and a partner (or not). How, by making bad decisions.

    So chose you partners wisely and make good conservative decisions.

  20. #95
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    As I think about all this, I am increasingly appreciative of the CAIC. They remain professional and badass all at the same time. Here is some commentary https://avalanche.state.co.us/foreca...e/front-range/ with a little more advance analysis that manages to be neither preachy or sensationalistic.

  21. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmedslc View Post
    “The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering a slab avalanche 2 to 4 feet deep, on upper elevation slopes facing northwest through easterly. It's an isolated chance of triggering one of these monsters, but deadly if you do.”

    Super duper deadly. I’m tired of the hype that these “avalanche professionals “ put forth every day on the report. Report the facts, not some some fear monger fucking propaganda....
    Maybe my sarcasm meter is off, but are you kidding me?
    This is the picture of a avie level moderate slide with the mentioned problem "possibly big avalanches" in Austria in 2017. One of the guys was found 12 meters deep. Deadly dead, obviously. Klar on this board skied that face regularly, but they decided against it that winter because it was so big. If you trigger something, which is not very likely, it can get big. And it did, eventually.

    https://assets-tt-com.nmo.at/images/...f2c93de882.jpg

    Sent from my BLA-L29 using TGR Forums mobile app
    It's a war of the mind and we're armed to the teeth.

  22. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buster Highmen View Post
    But the social dynamic of social media kind of just amplifies our human failings to be seen as more aggro, more technical, more dominant with whiter, brighter teeth and fresher breath.

  23. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by getoutside View Post
    ^^ terrain management is key. been fortunate enough to spend some time with wra. couldn't pay enough for those kinda classes.
    I have my Avy 1 Cert, but haven't been able to get out in the BC with experienced people as much as id like to. Are there any classes that focus exclusively or heavily on terrain mgmt and choice instead of the snow science? I could not care less about certs, but id drop a few hundo to have an expert looking over my shoulder telling me my route is shitty before the mountain does.... Problem is, no experienced folks want to be bogged down by a newbie so its tough to hook up with a mentor as you don't want to blow their day b/c you're slow and inexperienced, and they don't want to waste a good day babysitting me.

    Right now, i just ski inbounds during storm cycles, and meadow skip, or ski minigolf during winter tours once the snowpack is healed up. Im over the top cautious because i lack the experience to feel comfortable shaving my margins past super-super conservative.

  24. #99
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    ^^^I don't know of any terrain management classes. I'm not up on all the current curriculum so I can't speak to wear it should/could be taught.

    Honestly, the whole finding mentors thing is very hard and it is on you. It comes up all the time when people admit to having trouble finding a good group to tour with.

    I think your situation is very common. One thing I know has worked is to go on some type of guides trip with your friends and ask if you could work on these things.

    I do think that there are a tremendous amount of travel skills that can be learned outside of a professional setting.

  25. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post
    I have my Avy 1 Cert, but haven't been able to get out in the BC with experienced people as much as id like to. Are there any classes that focus exclusively or heavily on terrain mgmt and choice instead of the snow science? I could not care less about certs, but id drop a few hundo to have an expert looking over my shoulder telling me my route is shitty before the mountain does.... Problem is, no experienced folks want to be bogged down by a newbie so its tough to hook up with a mentor as you don't want to blow their day b/c you're slow and inexperienced, and they don't want to waste a good day babysitting me.

    Right now, i just ski inbounds during storm cycles, and meadow skip, or ski minigolf during winter tours once the snowpack is healed up. Im over the top cautious because i lack the experience to feel comfortable shaving my margins past super-super conservative.
    Pro guiding intro course, a custom private day, or just their guided day tours.

    Iet me know if you're around at crystal. I'll go for a walk with you.
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

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