Does social media overhype avy danger?

[californiagrown]

I could only take about 5 seconds of that SFB posted video. WTF.

Anyway, on 2/25/18 2 kids were killed near where I spend a lot of time. I want to know what type of report would have saved their lives.

Some info:
~~~~~
Avalanche safety gear carried by party: Both carried transceivers, shovels, probes. Subject 1 had an ice axe. Subject 2 had an ABS airbag backpack that was not deployed.
Avalanche Training and Experience: Subject 1 had taken an AIARE Avalanche Level 1 course the previous year. Subject 2 had taken two avalanche awareness classes.
~~~~~
So afterwards it was discovered that the avie report, (high danger level), was given to them verbally, through texts, and was viewed on one of their computers, and yet they still chose poorly.

So I guess, I want the IG, FB, whatever post that would have reached them, and cause them to not hike in the area that killed them.

As you well know, that whole valley is pretty much filled with hangfire, and avalanche exposure, yet it is also probably the most popular backcountry spot in the state for equipped and non-equipped alike. probably because the route finding is so easy... follow the creek track.

IME, knowing the snow part of avy dangers is becoming more and more popular because the information is so easily accessible and easy to understand and digest. BUT, people get into trouble with the route finding and terrain portion of the equation which is much more complex and variable and takes experience and work above and beyond glancing through the latest avy report.

I realize its a HUUUGE liability issue and would never happen, but i think it would be cool if the avalanche centers recommended a "tour of the day", or a "bad idea tour of the day" based on snow/weather conditions and the terrain involved. Maybe a list of popular tours that are bad ideas that day would help keep folks out of trouble.

[PNWbrit]

the information is so easily accessible and easy to understand and digest.

Apparently not.

[plugboots]

I agree with you guys in the last few posts, I am kinda brainstorming on how having the OP's question be a bad thing. Too much info? Over hyped?

[mall walker]

I realize its a HUUUGE liability issue and would never happen, but i think it would be cool if the avalanche centers recommended a "tour of the day", or a "bad idea tour of the day" based on snow/weather conditions and the terrain involved. Maybe a list of popular tours that are bad ideas that day would help keep folks out of trouble.

I just can't see it working, at least for "tour of the day," as all the crowds that sort of recommendation would draw (at least here) would present a whole new type of danger. Not to mention the liability.

On the "bad tour of the day," the UAC has occasionally called out certain slopes/zones as being notably unsafe for the conditions that day (eg Stairs, Broads when glide is of particular concern) but it's pretty uncommon.

[Gunder]

IME, knowing the snow part of avy dangers is becoming more and more popular because the information is so easily accessible and easy to understand and digest. BUT, people get into trouble with the route finding and terrain portion of the equation which is much more complex and variable and takes experience and work above and beyond glancing through the latest avy report.
.

I agree 100%... I just did the CAA OPPS pro course. My single bigggest complaint about the class is that way too much time is wasted on crystal ID and virtually no time is spent on how relate your snow test findings to appropriate terrain. Every terrain assesment exercise or evaluation they did was solely based upon finding the most mellow completely danger free route possible. That is FAR from the reality and nor is it always the "safest" option due to other circumstances.

ALL avalanche education at EVERY LEVEL drops the ball on appropriate terrain selection. Granted to really become proficient at that, requires years of experience in the field with very experienced people. I feel like I have a good grasp on that these days, but I certainly wouldn't call my self an expert at it... there is just way too many variables. HOWEVER classes should at the very least start with the basics of it and give people at least a bit of a clue as to how to begin to applying the snow evaluation portion to terrain.

[Buster Highmen]

ALL avalanche education at EVERY LEVEL drops the ball on appropriate terrain selection.

QFT.
In my mealy little mind, terrain selection is fundamental, primary and for the most part trumps everything else.

[toast2266]

I realize its a HUUUGE liability issue and would never happen, but i think it would be cool if the avalanche centers recommended a "tour of the day", or a "bad idea tour of the day" based on snow/weather conditions and the terrain involved. Maybe a list of popular tours that are bad ideas that day would help keep folks out of trouble.

That fucking awful christmas themed youtube video posted up thread essentially had that. It called out a couple areas as being particularly bad ideas.

[plugboots]

QFT.
In my mealy little mind, terrain selection is fundamental, primary and for the most part trumps everything else.

I was posting a longer version of this. I went to my avie 1 class, and I felt they spent way too little time on this. Almost no talk of skiing one-by-one, sking to safe zones, etc.

[zion zig zag]

If their mission is to reduce avalanche deaths, overhype is likely a useful stratedgy.

I agree with this. I find it pretty easy to get past the social media overhype of the local avy center and just get the facts that I need. SFB can't seem to get past this with the UAC, he wants all users to be him, but they aren't, and that's great. The UAC probably forecast's for one of the densest user groups in any area, and often, when it comes to this shit, lowest common denominator is the target.

[fastfred]

What's the difference between a joey and a jerry?

A Joey is more likely to be found on the east coast a jerry is more likely to be seen in the rocky Mountain region.

Glad I can help out when needed

Sent from my SCH-I435 using Tapatalk

[core2]

A Joey is more likely to be found on the east coast a jerry is more likely to be seen in the rocky Mountain region.

Glad I can help out when needed

Sent from my SCH-I435 using Tapatalk

Don't forget that Texans are considered a subspecies here.

[Gunder]

In my mealy little mind, terrain selection is fundamental, primary and for the most part trumps everything else.

Agreed. Best advice anyone can get when dealing a questionable snowpack is to manage the terrain not the conditions.

[Norseman]

Agreed. Best advice anyone can get when dealing a questionable snowpack is to manage the terrain not the conditions.

I try to remind myself of this every time.

[Buster Highmen]

Agreed. Best advice anyone can get when dealing a questionable snowpack is to manage the terrain not the conditions.

When we did a 6 day tour with Roger Averbeck, one of the first people to set up a hut system out in the Wallowas in the mid 90s, he really stressed terrain choice.
As we traversed passes and draws, would ask us to pick a route and then critique it.
He really focused on not going into terrain traps, being aware of convexities, staying up on the nose or ridge of zones.

We dug pits and did layer and crystal analysis, but the thing that made the most sense to me was the terrain choices as being the most important thing.

Now, about you standing on that rollover Gunder….

;-)

But the social dynamic of social media kind of just amplifies our human failings to be seen as more aggro, more technical, more dominant with whiter, brighter teeth and fresher breath.

[P.A.B.C.]

Reminds me of a local “guide” an his buddy’s that skied a lower elevation peak around here that rarely gets enough snow to ski. A couple days after a trip report on TAY there’s an article in the local paper about their rare descent of said peak, yes they called the paper to do an article on them which I think it’s more that guides seem to need to publish everything the validate their careers

Just wondering, what would the "guide" in question have to do to lose the quotation marks. From what I understand, at least one of them is certified by the AMGA and works for a reputable guiding service.

[snoqpass]

He’s done some really cool stuff in the mountains but the Mt Si thing was nothing more than a publicity stunt

[dunfree]

what's "overhype"? Some of the coastal avalanche centers get worked up because the coastal snowpack is suddenly acting like a continental snowpack. If you are in the mindset of a continental snowpack it's "overhype" if you only ski in a coastal snowpack continually stressing it's "not what you are used to" might be useful.

[raisingarizona13]

As you well know, that whole valley is pretty much filled with hangfire, and avalanche exposure, yet it is also probably the most popular backcountry spot in the state for equipped and non-equipped alike. probably because the route finding is so easy... follow the creek track.

IME, knowing the snow part of avy dangers is becoming more and more popular because the information is so easily accessible and easy to understand and digest. BUT, people get into trouble with the route finding and terrain portion of the equation which is much more complex and variable and takes experience and work above and beyond glancing through the latest avy report.

I realize its a HUUUGE liability issue and would never happen, but i think it would be cool if the avalanche centers recommended a "tour of the day", or a "bad idea tour of the day" based on snow/weather conditions and the terrain involved. Maybe a list of popular tours that are bad ideas that day would help keep folks out of trouble.

Recommending anything like that is a HUGE liability and not something I would want to be part of. Conditions can change rapidly during the day. What's safe at 9 AM may become a loaded death trap in a few hours.

I kind of feel that anyone that solely relies on reports to make their decisions is sort of a problem. I mean, everyone has to learn and you can't start out without being a newbie but if people aren't at least trying to learn as much as possible and prefer to just follow others and a report then maybe they should get a different hobby?

[LeeLau]

For the info coming from the avy forecasters, it seems like there's a bit of a disconnect as to the intended audience. The over-the-top social media posts, and put-the-fear-of-god-into-you type posts are probably mostly intended for the 20 year old joey who just bought a used touring setup with Dukes from the 2nd hand store, and is gonna go get rad in the "backcountry." He's watched a million web edits of pros skiing perfect pow, and joey wants to get rad. Intelligent, rationale consideration of the risks probably isn't going to happen, but if avy forecasters can at least get a few doom-and-gloom type posts into Joey's feed, then maybe he'll be ever so slightly more conservative in how he approaches his quest for radness. Same goes for the over the top social media / reddit / whatever posts. People who know what they're doing probably aren't basing their decisions on those posts. But hopefully it'll give some pause to the people who don't know what they're doing.
.

I think it must be pretty hard to be a forecaster. Like SFB and Foggy and others i like the structured and objective as possible format of Avalanche Canada. But then my mentors were avalanche geeks or professionals and i soaked up the lingo, their effort to be as scientific as possible with an unscientific process & they really stressed getting out in the field under all conditions, getting experience and using their own head and making their own judgments.

Now I'm going to sound like old man shaking fist at clouds but I see people getting out now with either zero experience or just basic experience (maybe AST level). And they learn how to rappel through youtube. Or read about rad lines through Instagram (Tgr forums are for old pharts). Or they have tinder meetups through facebook groups to plan cool tours where they absolutely have to do that tour because its the weekend. And they have no mentors because (1) there are so many newbs starting so there aren't enough mentors; and (2) experienced people got better things to do then take care of newbs.

So maybe some of the Avalanche Centres and maybe some of the people who post about shooting cracks or whumpfs on social media are trying as best as they can to try to reach millenial noobs who don't necessarily learn or appreciate avalanche training in the formal sense? I'm not trying to make excuses here. Just trying to appreciate how tough it must be for the avalanche Centres and educators to try to reach out to people with such massively different skill sets and different ways of learning and different ways to absorbing information

EDIT - also didn't want to single out millenials. Lots of older and middle aged getting into touring (heck it seems like everyone wants to get that sick pow) and they're similarly bewilder me in how they rely so much on interwebz and Youtube learning as opposed to getting out into the field and actually learning.

[homemadesalsa]

QFT.
In my mealy little mind, terrain selection is fundamental, primary and for the most part trumps everything else.

I just finished teaching a Rec L1 this last weekend. We spend as much time as we can on terrain. Theme for the course is "Choose Terrain to match the Conditions." We use the ATES classification (simple- challenging-complex) and try to show people as much terrain as we can: in real life on a full-day and then a half-day tour, then in photos and graphs in class. You can only do so much in a 3-day class. Give them the resources to get out there and not kill themselves, and don't act like idiots.

I spend a LOT of my life pondering this disconnect, honestly. Digesting information and then making the appropriate choice- it's hard to get beyond the "I want..." factor. We had a great thread going a number of years ago in the Slide Zone by Cookie Monster- he posited the Desire vs Uncertainty conundrum that I use a lot.
https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/...e++uncertainty

[skifishbum]

I agree with this. I find it pretty easy to get past the social media overhype of the local avy center and just get the facts that I need. SFB can't seem to get past this with the UAC, he wants all users to be him, but they aren't, and that's great. The UAC probably forecast's for one of the densest user groups in any area, and often, when it comes to this shit, lowest common denominator is the target.

wrong answer i dont want nobody to be me or like me
cause if you were me and an outstanding stoke filled member of this community your,coworker ,friend and someone you shared turns with death on your happy place turned into a xmass carol of shit you might feel just a touch differnt
and i think if you look at the data it may not be this lowest common dumbfuck jerry that is dieing these days
alec was a good kid and deserves better from professionals members of a community

[zion zig zag]

and i think if you look at the data it may not be this lowest common dumbfuck jerry that is dieing these days

Lots of snowmobilers, some resort skiers that poke too far out of bounds and a few knowledgeable folks mixed in. So what could the UAC have done to prevent the deaths of those that are knowledgeable? Was there not enough raw, objective free data in the report for them?

was a good kid and deserves better from professionals members of a community

Serious question: what does he deserve from the UAC? What should they do, in your mind, to prevent that kind of accident?

[zion zig zag]

And I'd just like to say, I'm not trying to be a dick, but it really does seem like you're bringing your own ego into your hate of the UAC.

Can I see differences in Drew's forecasts vs Trent's? Of course, but in both of them, the data is there, it's easy to ignore the ego of the forecaster and get what you need. But it almost feels like you're in some kind of weird competition thing with some of those guys? Maybe it's from spending too much time in the sheep pen with all of those personalities?

Again, I'm not trying to throw stones at you, but you bring this up every chance you get.

[cmcrawfo]

I realize its a HUUUGE liability issue and would never happen, but i think it would be cool if the avalanche centers recommended a "tour of the day", or a "bad idea tour of the day" based on snow/weather conditions and the terrain involved. Maybe a list of popular tours that are bad ideas that day would help keep folks out of trouble.

Around here the forecast blog periodically gives a “what’s the worst thing you could get up to today” kinda thing...

Not that it does any good... during a special spring avy warning they specifically talk about dropping huge cornices with your buddies being directly underneath... a pair of non skiing snow bikers we were with dropped in on us, moments before we we to summit on skins ... my internal rage was 50% avy, 50% you snaked my line... el here snapped a sick picture of them dropping almost directly above us ... so I guess it was worth it.

[core2]

Better to give people too much data than not enough. Hype the danger, if it saves some lives it is worth it. It may keep some idiots out of the mountains, so what, the locals know what is up anyways.