SNOW IN THE PNW 2018-19

[Buster Highmen]

I still don't understand the question.
One thing that was nice over the last couple of years was the attempt to spin the lifts before the official opening time. Not always successful, but a nice effort.

[PNWbrit]

just the general modus operandi now that there is a new patrol director.

I don't think there will be very much change noticeable. Promotion from within.

It won't stop every punter from knowing exactly what they would be doing better though.

One thing that was nice over the last couple of years was the attempt to spin the lifts before the official opening time. Not always successful, but a nice effort.

Yep.

Especially coming on the back of the awfully implemented early load for pass holders policy.

[pipedream]

The hoar abounds at and below treeline where it's been protected from the wind. The current snowpack around these parts is a few inches of faceted fluff on top of a firm rain crust / the ground. It's gonna be a layer of concern for the next systems coming-in as not only will the snow fall upside down with a warming trend into the middle of next week but there won't be enough of it to crush the faceted layer. Now, once we get enough snow on top, or a good rain event, that layer will be destroyed. But there will be considerable avalanche potential for at least the next few weeks.

The good news from this cold spell is that the creeks are almost dry and many have frozen. So hopefully we won't have a repeat of last season's bottomless holes and running water.

[Wapow]

When has a storm ever come in cold after a protracted high pressure system prevailed, especially at the Alp? I don't remember it ever happening in all my many years of paying extra close attention. Freezing rain, followed by non-freezing rain and then (maybe) snow is the standard, which is why hoar frost is rarely an issue around here. BTW - I recently trademarked December Crust® and December PWL®. It will cost you a buck a pop each time you use them on this site.

[pipedream]

Put my buck a usage towards plowing Hyak & Yellowstone. It will come in (somewhat) cold, there will be an ephemeral weak layer, no freezing rain, sufficient avalanche activity and then we'll be good to go.

Good thing it only rains here, tho

[wickstad]

i blame premature thread ejaculatin

Careful.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

I feel like with the late start to the snow season a lot of people are going to be itching to get out and make some aggressive terrain choices this coming week. Looks like the storms are going to come in fairly cold, so i wouldnt expect the hoar layer to get smushed this coming week. Probably gonna be pretty darn spicy out there, but we wont know till NWAC stops studying snow on a mirror and gets out in the field next week to study snow on a mountain.

It will be interesting to see how Patrol handles this in regards to terrain opening - do they bomb stuff to try and get it open but risk having all the snow slide off and have to close it back up, or do they keep it all closed till next weekend in the hopes that the layer heals itself and wont all slide off during control Saturday morning? I've unintentionally managed to hit the Powder Bowl opening at Crystal the past two years within the first 10 chairs, and that face seems like a prime candidate to get all bombed (Gasexed?) off before they get a chance to open it.

I think you should stop worrying so much and just go ski.

[TAFKALVS]

Light snowfall in Leavenworth right now. About a day early... let's hope it's a sign of good things.

[californiagrown]

I think you should stop worrying so much and just go ski.

Ill worry while i ski thank you very much!

[Greydon Clark]

When has a storm ever come in cold after a protracted high pressure system prevailed, especially at the Alp? I don't remember it ever happening in all my many years of paying extra close attention. Freezing rain, followed by non-freezing rain and then (maybe) snow is the standard, which is why hoar frost is rarely an issue around here. BTW - I recently trademarked December Crust® and December PWL®. It will cost you a buck a pop each time you use them on this site.

I read this as a challenge and want to start digging through the bowels of the internet to prove you wrong, but the work bathroom isn't conducive this type of research.

[wickstad]

[img]photoofuntrackedatmissionthismorning[|img]


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[wickstad]

Maybe this one will work. Mission this morning. Above the clouds.

[cmor]

When has a storm ever come in cold after a protracted high pressure system prevailed, especially at the Alp? I don't remember it ever happening in all my many years of paying extra close attention. Freezing rain, followed by non-freezing rain and then (maybe) snow is the standard, which is why hoar frost is rarely an issue around here. BTW - I recently trademarked December Crust® and December PWL®. It will cost you a buck a pop each time you use them on this site.

Challenge accepted



Avalanche forecast for the incoming system on Feb 4th, 2017:

A very important pattern change is taking place over the Northwest Friday and Saturday. The dry weather and strong cold E-NE winds seen Wednesday and Thursday are being replaced by increasing strong southwest flow aloft, increasing snow and warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday.

Saturday should be a day of strong southwest alpine winds, with a change from cool east winds to warmer west winds in the Cascade Passes, moderate to heavy snow with snow changing to rain at lower elevations, and warming temperatures.

Along the west slopes at higher elevations from Friday to the end of the day on Saturday there should be 1-2 feet of warmer, denser new snow. This will generally build new upside down wind and storm slab layers. This new snow may build over weak or faceted snow from the cold weather mid-week on some or many slopes.

This is a recipe for avalanches.

An avalanche warning has been issued for the west slopes for Saturday.

New sensitive wind slab is very likely on NW to SE slopes but will be found on other aspects especially in the Cascade passes due to wind shifts there.

Wind slab formed by strong E-NE winds on Wednesday and Thursday may linger on Saturday. The primary aspects for these wind slabs should be W facing slopes.

New sensitive potentially deep storm slab will continue to build on sheltered slopes on Saturday in areas that see rapidly accumulating snow. The warming trend will help build upside down layers and promote storm slab formation.

Natural or triggered wind and storm slab avalanches are very likely along the west slopes on Saturday. Wind or storm slab avalanches may step to deeper layers. Rain at the lower elevations may also trigger loose wet or wet slab avalanches on Saturday. Travel in back country avalanche terrain is not recommended along the west slopes on Saturday.

[greenmachine]

Maybe this one will work. Mission this morning. Above the clouds.

Yummy

[Zeedashbo]

Moral of the story is....

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!

Gapers must stay home and not leave to go skiing until it is deemed safe by your guardian decision maker aka nwac. Instead, spend your time and money at Pro ski service (2 locations) or REI. Talk about backcountry skiing with the knowledgeable staff and fondle all the new gear that will make you faster on the up and better on the down.

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[SkiLyft]

Slayed the Surface Hoooaaaarrrrr

@StevensPass




Better half getting some




Haha Jasper is 10 months and looks like he is going on 80 years old.




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[wickstad]

Moral of the story is....

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!

Gapers must stay home and not leave to go skiing until it is deemed safe by your guardian decision maker aka nwac. Instead, spend your time and money at Pro ski service (2 locations) or REI. Talk about backcountry skiing with the knowledgeable staff and fondle all the new gear that will make you faster on the up and better on the down.

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Wtf? You always this weird or have you been inhabited?

[Zeedashbo]

Been stirring pots and eating gapers for lunch since the pow mag days. I don't post much, but when I do I hope it makes someone snicker

In all honesty it could be a nasty avy cycle west of the crest. Good thing snow line is 5k in most spots westerly

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[KQ]

Opening day at Bluewood is the 14th!

[BeardedClam]

Mt. Baker opening lodge day this weekend! Go get first tracks in the tap room

[SkiLyft]

In all honesty it could be a nasty avy cycle west of the crest. Good thing snow line is 5k in most spots westerly

Truth there... found 1.5” surface hoar. And it’s still cold and snow is en route. This next 1-2 feet are going to fall on a VERY unstable layer. Sadly it also looked like wind was not flattening the surface hoar.

Ugh.






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[pipedream]

I don't know what "D?" means but I'm pretty sure if the forecast pans-out we'll be golfing as early as Thurs. A little birdie told me we'll be riding the padded seats on the solstice. And there'll be a great present beneath the trees on Christmas Day if everything goes to plan accordingly. No night laps at Alpental on NYE... however you'll be able to turn beneath the lights after sleeping it off the following day.

[Wapow]

Challenge accepted



Avalanche forecast for the incoming system on Feb 4th, 2017:

A very important pattern change is taking place over the Northwest Friday and Saturday. The dry weather and strong cold E-NE winds seen Wednesday and Thursday are being replaced by increasing strong southwest flow aloft, increasing snow and warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday.

Saturday should be a day of strong southwest alpine winds, with a change from cool east winds to warmer west winds in the Cascade Passes, moderate to heavy snow with snow changing to rain at lower elevations, and warming temperatures.

Along the west slopes at higher elevations from Friday to the end of the day on Saturday there should be 1-2 feet of warmer, denser new snow. This will generally build new upside down wind and storm slab layers. This new snow may build over weak or faceted snow from the cold weather mid-week on some or many slopes.

This is a recipe for avalanches.

An avalanche warning has been issued for the west slopes for Saturday.

New sensitive wind slab is very likely on NW to SE slopes but will be found on other aspects especially in the Cascade passes due to wind shifts there.

Wind slab formed by strong E-NE winds on Wednesday and Thursday may linger on Saturday. The primary aspects for these wind slabs should be W facing slopes.

New sensitive potentially deep storm slab will continue to build on sheltered slopes on Saturday in areas that see rapidly accumulating snow. The warming trend will help build upside down layers and promote storm slab formation.

Natural or triggered wind and storm slab avalanches are very likely along the west slopes on Saturday. Wind or storm slab avalanches may step to deeper layers. Rain at the lower elevations may also trigger loose wet or wet slab avalanches on Saturday. Travel in back country avalanche terrain is not recommended along the west slopes on Saturday.

Not following how this correlates to your thesis, but I agree that wind scour, wind transport and wind slab are the biggest culprits when it comes to dangerous avy conditions on the western slopes. Surface hoar is generally negated by warmups and wind when the next front rolls in. The conditions that lead to surface hoar (high pressure causing an inversion) tend to lead to warm fronts as the next cycle. I wish that wasn't true, but the net result is lower overall avy danger to our mountains, after the transition. The only places where I've encountered reactive slabs over facets, with legit whumphing, is around WA Pass, and very occasionally in isolated patches in the woods (protected from wind) in the central Cascades. I'm sure it happens around Mission as well, but wind is still the biggest threat there too. I'd also posit that PWLs tend to be way overblown around here too. We get too many warmup crusts on the surface on the western slopes to maintain that type of danger over time. Doesn't stop the pundits on TAY from providing stern warnings ad nauseum. I've just never seen it confirmed in the field.

[PNWbrit]

Don't argue weather and snow science with cmor.

[snoqpass]

Great news for you Crystal BC skiers....
https://seattle.carpe-diem.events/ca...doors-seattle/