OFFICIAL TAHOE 18/19 STOKE, CONDITIONS, WEATHER THREAD

[hercule33]

Not true. There was a smaller group putting together a deal to acquire KW that would have been more co-op style. Vail swooped in with more $$ and snatched the place.

You also can’t directly calculate revenue when the epic pass is involved- I’m sure some pass holders come to Tahoe knowing that KW has rad terrain and they wouldn’t bother if it was just Northstar and Heavenly.

I haven’t heard this story about a co op but if it’s true, it kind of proves my point. Vail’s only competition to buy Kirkwood came from a small group trying to scrounge up money for a co-op style resort? Why didn’t anyone else want to buy Kirkwood?

I do agree that Kirkwood’s value to Vail is a loss leader to get South Bay money to buy an epic pass and then visit one of their cash cow resorts.

[TahoeJ]

It was also in the middle of a recession...

[hercule33]

It was also in the middle of a recession...

2010 KSL buys Squaw. 2011 KSL buys Alpine. 2012 Vail buys Kirkwood. All these purchases were during the recession so big companies were snatching up resorts during that time, including Tahoe resorts.

Back to the snow, did anyone notice the wet snow avalanche warning in the SAC forecast for today? Wet avalanches in January suck.

[TahoeJ]

2010 KSL buys Squaw. 2011 KSL buys Alpine. 2012 Vail buys Kirkwood. All these purchases were during the recession so big companies were snatching up resorts during that time, including Tahoe resorts.

Back to the snow, did anyone notice the wet snow avalanche warning in the SAC forecast for today? Wet avalanches in January suck.

Yeah no shit. That’s how big capital takes advantage of a weakened market, acquiring assets during a period when they’re devalued.

Kirkwood would not be closed if Vail hadn’t bought it. That’s just nonsense. There were other interested parties as well.

[lepistoir]

Apparently the skiing sucks

[hercule33]

Apparently the skiing sucks

Lol, you know it. Vail bitching still happening on this thread, big time.

[old goat]

Lol, you know it. Vail bitching still happening on this thread, big time.

Yeah, how about some Alterra bitching folks.

[hercule33]

Yeah no shit. That’s how big capital takes advantage of a weakened market, acquiring assets during a period when they’re devalued.

Kirkwood would not be closed if Vail hadn’t bought it. That’s just nonsense. There were other interested parties as well.

I don’t get your logic. Big capital is looking for devalued assets and Kirkwood is selling for $18 million. Every big capital firm passes except for Vail which has a portfolio of resorts and can afford a loss leader like Kirkwood in hopes of recouping the money when wealthy Bay Area Kirkwood skiers become “destination customers” at one of their cash cow resorts.

$18 million for a ski resort that makes money is not a reality. For reference, Vail bought Whistler, a cash cow, for $1.1 billion and Stowe, an east coast resort, for $41 million. And Kirkwood had no buyers other than Vail and a co op for $18 million. That says a lot about Kirkwood’s ability to turn a profit.

[hercule33]

Yeah, how about some Alterra bitching folks.

Lol, it snowed and lifts are spinning at Squaw. After years of KSL running the mountain, what’s there to complain about

[TahoeJ]

Every big capital firm passes except for Vail

Quote your source on this. I disagree.

[hercule33]

Quote your source on this. I disagree.

The fact that Vail bought Kirkwood for $18 million proves the point. If there was a bidding war (I am not aware of one) it stopped at $18 million.

As for your source for the $18 million.

https://www.sfgate.com/sports/articl...es-3354515.php

[bodywhomper]

My insider info was that KSL was negotiating an agreement to buy Kirkwood and it feel apart kinda late in the game. After that occurred, Vail came in and basically saved the Kirkwood owners. IMO, Kirkwood’s biggest mistake was related to the attempts to implement new real estate developments about 15-20 years ago. Those issues pre-dated the recession. Many people boondoggled. Total goat rodeo. Developers walking away from partially completed projects and not paying contractor invoices. Shit like that.

[~mikey b]

goat rodeo

[PB]

Don't care if it's the Greatest rodeo Of All Time, they're just animal abusers.

[rod9301]

Great skiing at squaw today. Chute 75, rock garden, headwall.

Sent from my moto g(6) using Tapatalk

[Ottime]

Coverage at KW is fine for January. The rocks are covered and you can jump off shit. It’s no longer low tide. More like mid tide. Small lines are gone or nearly gone. Big lines are not nearly in. Dog Leg is a go if that gives you an idea.

Conditions were interesting today. Just had to play it like a spring day that was not warming up too much. Stick to the sunny side. Mountain is smooth right now.

And yes, it was the real estate drive at KW pre recession that sank the place. They over extended, the recession hit and they not prepared for lean years.

[Paul Blart]

https://snowbrains.com/breckenridge-...-memorial-day/

Big news coming out of Colorado, maybe it’ll happen with one of the epic resorts out here

[gnarbro365]

Anyone buying into the hype? Or are folks south of Alpine a little gunshy?

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.....Cloudy. Snow likely in the morning, then snow in
the afternoon.
Snow Level......7000 feet.
Chc Rain/Snow...95%.
Lightning.......None Forecast.
Temperature.....31 to 36.
Ridge Top Wind..Southwest 35 to 55 mph with gusts to 90 mph.
Snow............80% probability of 6 to 10 inches.
20% probability of 10 to 15 inches.
Liquid Amount...0.55-1.00 inch.


.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.....Cloudy. Snow.
Snow Level......Below 7000 feet.
Chc Rain/Snow...95%.
Lightning.......None Forecast.
Temperature.....16 to 21.
Ridge Top Wind..Southwest 35 to 55 mph with gusts to 95 mph
decreasing to 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 70 mph
after midnight.
Snow............80% probability of 10 to 18 inches.
20% probability of 18 to 24 inches.
Liquid Amount...0.60-1.10 inches.

The high-resolution models are
now suggesting 3-4 inches of QPF along the Sierra Crest. We have
not gone that heavy in the official forecast, but we have
increased the amounts to near 2.5" along the crest, with around
1-1.5" around the Tahoe Basin itself

That is a lot of liquid in 24 hrs.

[lepistoir]

Anyone buying into the hype? Or are folks south of Alpine a little gunshy?

Yeah, that is definitely something to watch. I saw the Fx bump up a little this morning but didn’t really see any explanation in the discussion. I’m thinking this is a low confidence scenario so they are waiting to see more model runs before they go all in on the big dump hypothesis.

ETA: most likely hinges on the timing of the cold front so extra tricky to predict.

[4matic]

Latest Kirkwood NOAA

Sunday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 37 by 11am, then falling to around 31 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 20 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

[bobz]

The QPF is showing some rather big precip rates tomorrow noon through midnight; starts wet but cools down by evening. And Monday’s high at Soda Springs is supposed to be 29. Tomorrow looks ugly, but Monday could be amazing.

[pureshred]

Monday is looking fantastic. Sunny with 2ft of blower, could be the best day of the season thus far. It's guaranteed to be actually, cause I'll be working.

https://snowbrains.com/breckenridge-...-memorial-day/

Big news coming out of Colorado, maybe it’ll happen with one of the epic resorts out here

Pleeeeaase let this happen at Kirkwood

[powdork]

weird that they chose an option that so closely competes with an already existing option.

[old goat]

Lightning and thunder and raining hard. Welcome to Julyuary.

[tahoe420]

I'm sure it's snowing on top!